market why not. find out what's really happening to the global economy with mike stronger for a no holds barred look at the global financial headlines tune in to cause report on r.g.p. . this is artsy moscow our top stories thousands of protesters frustrated with egypt's interim government have filled up cairo's tahrir square and other cities across the country demanding faster reforms and prosecution of the former president and his top officials and they're trying to keep the pressure up on the country's military rulers. hundreds of protesters to be an activist have been fought in their attempts to reach garza by a majority of the campaigners were turned away from european airports of israel's request while several who made it through television would have supported or

detained for questioning. plus the last of the launch of atlantis marks the end of the u.s. space shuttle program and the end of an era expos and warned of a high chance that the launch would be delayed by bad weather but in the end the blast off happened just a minute behind shed yule. after decades of war and bloodshed southern sudan is getting ready to break free and go it alone next on our people about this cross talk as discussed whether it's already at risk of failure even before it flies its first flag of independence coming. liz. can. still. think of.

a low in welcome to cross talk i'm here all about after decades of conflict in war south sudan is said to become an independent state on july ninth as the world intice a paid for this event there are lingering questions surrounding the viability of this new oil rich country that south sudan failed even before it established. the can. still live. to cross not the future of south sudan i'm joined by my guest in washington jonathan temin he is the director of the sudan program with united states institute of peace john campbell he's the ralph bunche senior fellow for african policy studies at the council on foreign relations and he is an african political analyst all right gentlemen this is cross talk that means cross talk rules in effect i mean you can jump in anytime you want me and i can go to you first in washington and looking at the future of south sudan and will have its independence in

a few hours is it mission impossible or is it already mission failed. oh it's neither of those those i don't think those are the possible outcomes of course everything's in the air it depends on what happens more than it depends on what important act is new the leadership in saudi in sudan and their people in government or not what would become northern sudan the people of southern sudan the international community and of cause they need three are for can countries so there are a lot of this i actually think the future of the south is down while while it is not problem free is is much more positive than and seen in the media do you have a number of important i sense who informed them but a lot of their reporting has been on the difficulties which is right but we mustn't forget that the important things go in for them international goodwill they have a lot of all your own then i'm too small for their north and people most important

or for if you look at the referendum the people voted this is something that people really want and where there is a will there is there is a way ok mr ambassador john campbell thank you. repeat my question is in mission impossible a mission failed already because as we already heard there's a lot of ifs out there and i'd like to point out this is seems to be a very important foreign policy objective of the united states a lot of money has been poured into this endeavor what are your thoughts on it. it is certainly not mission impossible. it is however a challenging mission. a number of the very important issues between south sudan and sudan and the khartoum government still need to be worked through for example only about eighty percent of the border has been delineated then there is a question of how the oil revenue is going to be shared what arrangements there are

going to be for export in the oil most of which goes out through port sudan which is in the north and then there is the nationality question what do you do about people from the south who live in the north and vice versa these are important issues left over from the comprehensive peace agreement that have not yet been resolved and then there is the question of the south sudan's own institutional development one of the things we have seen is that in countries which have enormous amounts of oil there are it is have the institutional stress how in other words do you make best use of the oil revenue and prevent it from a sensually going into the pockets of a few corrupt individuals ok i don't agree i'd like to bring in jonathan here i mean we've heard a lot it looks like this is a new state built on a lot of hope is that is that. a point too much cold water on the future of this

new country. it is built on a lot of hope ninety eight percent or more of south sudanese voted to secede and that was a legitimate ninety eight percent that's almost unanimous which is really a remarkable thing it will be a state going weak but i don't think it will be a state war and failed i think that's unfair to the south sudanese but the challenge is that ambassador campbell talks about are real and i will add one more which is that there are real ethnic divides within the south and there are perceptions that the southern governments in the southern leadership are dominated by a few ethnic groups and that's something that the southern people will have to deal with early on that kind of ethnic division has been very problematic in other parts of africa and i'd like to go to you i mean when helping some south sudan develop its institutions it looks like the military and security get a lion's share of foreign aid united states state department is one hundred million

dollars a year if you expensive everything else infrastructure wise and we're talking about one of the poorest places on the planet is that a wise move. well i think it's a. great sign undoes time to move to begin with i mean notice that my in my code this and i are all in washington and so we have our fingers down on how sudan policy gets me and i think people have been rightly worried about the war in their domain eighteen nature of knowledge in sudan and we're in for the last few days president bashir has made a lot of very worrying statements and there is war on the border the and in southern kordofan so yes you have to look at the security about everything that has been said i agree totally with because of the especially the challenges of oil and ethnicity we have to help this sudan southern sudanese the u.s. and others who care have to help them to build institutions and incidentally i

think if you stress democrats see you will are worried what the poor only called the oil case it is not their kids what is necessary is once you have oil you are to build strong institutions to do with the oil the united states is well endowed with oil it doesn't corrupt their their country as much as people assume for other places so i do think that yes the focus on military security may seem skewed by god is their fair stead now the hardware begins are one started it comes and the country's independent people should not say everything is done and boom particularly people like me are convinced and people in the united states who do put pressure on what the us ought to do we have our work cut out for us to pressure the u.s. government to build the i'm very institutions i think i share their concern in your

question that you should be in the u.s. military only let's talk about the military here if i go to the ambassador human rights watch and amnesty international are very concerned about the funding of the military in the south because they know. soldiers have been responsible for grave human rights abuses including unlawful killings of civilians and looting and destruction of civilian property i mean again i mean this is such a is this a good time for independence if you have you have militias and security forces that are not very disciplined to be polite the security situation is extraordinarily difficult it's very easy in the euphoria leading up to the end of it to independence day it's very easy to simply put aside the fact that there is active fighting going on in the in south kordofan there there are claims by various ethnic groups of. north

north sudan sensually trying to destroy them as independent entities in other words south sudan has to have at this stage a robust security establishment all of that said it is perfectly true that in south sudan as elsewhere in africa the pavior and the training of the military is not necessarily what we would like it also makes the training of military all the more important and it's interesting jonathan if i go to you i mean it's an interesting mix here i mean the united states has been spending enormous money amount of money on the security situation there and as it was pointed out in this program there's a heck of a lot of oil there i think there's an estimated six billion barrels of oil on the ground underground i mean so you have these very large security force in a lot of oil that it could make speakers by witness security forces be more interested in revenues. well it's important to keep in mind that the southern army of the sudan people's liberation army is the largest employer in south sudan by far

this is going to be a country with very little employment opportunity now the s.p.l. a is too large everybody recognizes that and there are a lot of soldiers in there who should probably be demobilized but it's very difficult for the sudden government to do that because there are few alternatives in terms of employment for any demobilized soldiers and there's a chance that any demobilized soldier is my revolts or join some of the current rebellions in the south so that's really a sensitive issue for the southern leadership i think the south is actually rather unified around their oil and they're certainly unified around keeping as much of the oil and keeping as much of the profits as they can but there is certainly speculation about corruption in the oil sector and speculation that the army has been involved in that i mean if i go to you you see a possible future for south sudan might be like nigeria because of the oil.

number one i hope not number two i don't really think it because i think of cause the l.b.o. gallops they'll be they'll be similarities but i think for me the differences will be essential because if nothing else we have the end sample of nigeria to to to look out and to try to avoid the things that got them in trouble and so i am i'm not emphasize again i think the good is making sure that we build democratic institutions they challenges that michael connelly as i've mentioned i'll correct in the give them the right emphasis garbs they don't mean ones of the army and the dominance of the s.p.l. and the ethnic issues but i think we do have the example of that problem areas in africa and the southern sudanese people and the government how congo large by the do need international help and international assistance and imus also argue that

i'm on the hopeful side and not nothing and i mean sense because you know we are in washington washington just celebrate a good life for over two hundred years of the end dependence if you cast your mind back it looked like a very impossible mission when windows peter was declare independence and so why people feel strongly about it they can take on the challenges i do think with my strength i'm to talk about the rule of khartoum and president bashir here because with all of the internal challenges are in sudan i do think are you would you say likely as we are after we return from a break after the break we'll continue our discussion and spend state. to. state.

would be soon which brightened the advance from funds to pressure on some of. these flu stunts on t.v. dot com.

you can. well imagine people go to mind you were talking about the birth of another sudan. if you can. ok mr mesereau like to go to you know when it was mentioned right before i went to the break what about the north north sudan as it will be and their attitude towards the new country to

the south can they make or break the possibility of a sovereign state a state that can actually take care of itself with all that oil by the way but nonetheless what cards they play to make or break the new country. well. they certainly have could potentially if for example you have full scale warfare breaking out between south sudan sudan and the north the emergence of south sudan will become infinitely more complicated i note that according to the press this morning by sheer will be in juba for the the end dependent state celebrations i hope that is correct because ever since the comprehensive peace agreements were signed the north has dragged its feet. on the process but sheer himself openly and publicly accepts the end dependence of south sudan but bashir has an opposition he has an opposition in

khartoum there are others in khartoum who are not happy at all. about south sudan becoming independent not least because of the oil there is a kind of mantra that you can sometimes here in khartoum to the effect of that bashir has lost south sudan is sheer has failed that to end the crisis in darfur and the sheers approach to the opposition in khartoum. is repressive so bashir is not a totally independent actor and or this ok jonathan what do you think about that i mean. we didn't ignore seize all this oil and i did point out i mean right now the oil does go through the north for exports so i mean there is some kind of interdependence already built into this relationship be irrespective of attitudes political attitudes about the units of the new state. and this is why the oil is

actually a positive factor in terms of north-south relations in some ways because there is such mutual dependence between the north and the south in order for both of them to get their oil revenue the south gets about ninety eight percent of its revenue from oil almost all of their revenue comes from oil the north the numbers are a little fuzzy but probably something in the neighborhood of sixty percent of their revenue comes from oil they both need it they can't afford to live without it this fight some of the heated rhetoric that we're seeing and so the fact that almost all the oil about eighty percent of it comes out of the ground in the south but then goes through pipelines in the north and refineries in the north means that they have to work out a deal on oil they can't afford to do anything else and so i think there will be a deal on oil probably not by saturday july ninth but they have agreed to keep talking and i think that mutual dependence does act as a brake on a return for a full scale civil war which i don't think is likely i do think it's likely that

we're going to see some of this violence around the north-south border for some time to come and go ahead you want to jump in there. yes i want to i think the ambassador is very right i mean jonathan is right about the ambassador made the point of president bashir in the north not being. there and i think that is totally true you shared flight on there he had been seeing that he. again when decision of the south to brig go we are sad to see it but then he was seen beginning last week and since he came back he's been very beleaguered what i want to see another thought in the northern equation in time is an invasion by sheer which also would bring in their rule of the united states i mean we all know president obama. wants an africa and he's thinking the interest in africa from could be to others missus. this is obama was yes in south africa so i hope god

behind the scenes president obama is talking to the chinese because they're have an important influence on on. guns especially in the north because the our land is permed by companies from three countries the major one being a chinese company and it is a lot is sold to china and order by sheehan's arms come from china so i hope the u.s. is talking to china so that the constructive role because you know if and two is right the are. dealt with properly can reduce the friction between the two countries because unlike you said yes they both need is so it can be a causative factor in a single mr and that's what i'm going to you know i did during celebrations on saturday held in the indian country there could be a lot of dignitaries there i think colin powell is going to be there the current u.s. u.s. representative the united nations susan rice is going to be there and

a lot of other dignitaries is it all about oil i mean if it were any other if there were no oil there do you think a lot of dignitaries would be showing up. yes yes i think there would be a lot of people terry showing up because yes oil is important but what is also important is that this marks the errand of a conflict which has gone on for almost a generation. i mean the warfare between between the north and the south has nor are africa for for more than twenty years i want to take this opportunity though to jump in with respect to the mutual dependence of the south and the north on each other and with a particular focus on oil it's perfectly true yes indeed they're mutually dependent the question becomes whether the leadership of the two and here i would

particularly focus on courage and whether the leadership of the two recognize that fact and are willing to take that reality into account as they develop their policies that's what we're going to have to watch over the over the next several weeks. to share concern about the belligerence of comments that the sheer has been making over over the past week or so i will be watching with a great deal of interest about what he actually says on independence day and the day after what do you think about that jonathan i mean if there if we have my share is not so secure is a lot of people mate but might think he is i mean he could have a lot of trouble he's going to have to start saying the right things are respected if it's against his own country's best interest because we've been talking about this interdependence i mean if it no one gets any money if the oil isn't pumped out of the country so i mean what kind of wood what kind of variables is he could have

to deal with to get to maintain his power base but he still accept that a new country has come into being. well when we talk about him saying the right things it depends what audience he's talking to and the right things for the international audience can be very different than the right things for the domestic northern sudanese audience the message that president bush here in the n.c.p. leadership are trying to send right now within the north is that we are in control and that there aren't going to be any more breakaways like what we're seeing in southern sudan and this i think explains to some extent the violence that we're currently seeing in southern kordofan state and the efforts to disarm some troops in southern kordofan state in the north who are aligned with the south and that of course has been a rather violent process to go back to oil as well i think it's important not to overemphasize the importance of oil in sudan it's a medium level producer about four hundred ninety thousand barrels

a day that doesn't make it a big strike well will produce there and for the u.s. oil is actually not that important because the u.s. doesn't consume any sudanese oil because of the sanctions that the u.s. has on sudan so this has as much to do with the history and the bloodshed that ambassador campbell was talking about as the oil it's not just an oil story. well kind of precedent is being said here. even regions within south sudan start breaking apart or even the north seeing seeing the state of the north star collapsing if when we see bashir with every move he makes one way or another it could destabilize the north as well we've been focusing a lot on the south what about the north yes that is absolutely true and. i hope it doesn't happen i mean the ambassador is right there was. for a long time but i would think you'd be in for the you know i'm from gun i'm going to begin to plan in one thousand nine hundred seven so then i can only begin. and

the intention is. also. actually you can see this. and sold it in one nine hundred fifty six so the conflict has actually been there for more than fifty years so this is the brick of the south and the and the ninety eight percent for the referendum to me tells me that this was a special case and that i hope it hasn't spread to other parcels. and only in sudan trying to break up i mean there's even some talk among some of the other side need groups that well in southern sudan i don't want to put too much of a fine point on it back people always talk about breaking away i think we should be the i said cian rather than the rule and i hope it doesn't happen in other parts of sudan by beyond whom it depends on how the government governs the country if people feel that their wishes and grievances are taking into our count india listen to

even in the problems are not so good will still be which. allows as in the short time left to give some thought to places like darfur and of cause there sanctions the u.s. as it is now the sudan was mentioned but again i think washington if it is creative this ratio of the linemen it is creative those pressure points can actually be used not just on by sheer but also on the or position and also rebels in other areas like darfur to mention that they are normal because i think that's a general rule i don't like to see brick arms in africa for that matter it benefits political ambitions political people more than the ordinary citizens but in the case of southern sudan i think it's the assertion that proves the rule ok jonathan i'm going to give you the last word in the program what is the future of south sudan in thirty seconds. i think the biggest challenge in south

sudan is for the south sudanese to define themselves and to define what it means to be south sudanese for a long time what has held southerners together is getting to this referendum getting to this end dependence and also the common enemy that they see in the north it's now time to get beyond that and to define what it means to be a member of this very new brand new country of south sudan ok that's a very good point to end the program on many thanks to my guest today in washington thanks to our viewers for watching us you darkie see you next time and remember cross top. stories.

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