culture is that so much a given to each musician to find the mark leno after decades a moment in the war of south sudan has since become an independent state over long as the world. a telemarketer broadcasting live from washington d.c. coming up today on the big picture.

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market why not. come to. find out what's really high. into the global economy with mike's concert there are no holds barred look at the global financial headlines tune in to cause a report on r.t. . can. hello and welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle after decades of conflict and war south sudan is said to become an independent state on july ninth as the world interest paid for this event there are lingering questions surrounding the viability of this new oil rich country as south sudan failed even before it's established.

cross-talk the future of south sudan i'm joined by my guests in washington jonathan temin he is the director of the sudan program at the united states institute of peace john campbell he's the ralph bunche senior fellow for african policy studies at the council on foreign relations and need he is an african political analyst all right gentlemen this is cross talk that means prosthetic rules in effect i mean you can jump in anytime you want to me i'd like to go to you first in washington and looking at the future of south sudan and will have its independence in a few hours is it mission impossible or is it already mission failed. oh it's neither of those those i don't think those are the possible outcomes of course everything is in the air it depends on what happens more than it depends on what important act is do believe a ship in saudi in sudan and the people in government or not want to become

northern sudan the people of southern sudan the international community and of course they need three are for can countries so there are a lot of this i actually think the future down why while it is not problem free is this much more positive than i have seen in the media they have a number of important assets go in for them but a lot of the reports he has been on the difficulties which is right well we mustn't forget that the important things go in for them international goodwill they have a lot of all you know they're lying to small farecard and they're known and the people most important go for if you look at the referendum the people who voted this is something that people really want and where there is a will there is there is a way ok mr ambassador john campbell if i go to you i'll repeat my question is in mission impossible mission failed already because as we already heard there's a lot of ifs out there and i'd like to point out this is seems to be a very important foreign policy objective of the united states

a lot of money has been poured into this endeavor what are your thoughts on it. it is certainly not mission impossible. it is however a challenging mission. a number of the very important issues between south sudan and sudan and the khartoum government still need to be worked through for example only about eighty percent of the border has been delineated then there is a question of how the oil revenue is going to be shared what arrangements there are going to be for export in the oil most of which goes out through port sudan which is in the north and then there is the nationality question what do you do about people from the south who live in the north and vice versa these are important issues left over from the comprehensive peace agreement that have not yet been resolved and then there is the question of the south sudan's own institutional

development one of the things we have seen is that in countries which have enormous amounts of oil there are is heavy institutional stress how in other words do you make best use of the oil revenue and prevent it from essential going into the pockets of a few corrupt individuals ok i don't really know and i can see in jonathan here i mean we've heard a lot it looks like this is a new state built on a lot of hope is that is that. a point of much cold water on the future of this new country. it is built on a lot of hope ninety eight percent or more of south sudanese voted to secede and that was a legitimate ninety eight percent that's almost unanimous which is really a remarkable thing it will be a state boring week but i don't think it will be a state borne failed i think that's unfair to the south sudanese but the challenge

is that ambassador campbell talks about are real and i will add one more which is that there are real ethnic divides within the south and there are perceptions that the southern government and the southern leadership are dominated by a few ethnic groups and that's something that the southern people will have to deal with early on that kind of ethnic division has been very problematic in other parts of africa and how do you go do you i mean in helping some south sudan develop its institutions it looks like the military and security get a lion's share of foreign aid united states state department is one hundred million dollars a year at the expense of everything else infrastructure wise and we're talking about one of the poorest places on the planet is that a wise move. well i think it's a. great sign and just time to move to begin with i mean notice that in my mind codesa and i are all in washington and so we have our fingers now on how sudan policy gets me and i think people have been rightly worried about the war in their

domain eighteen new you. know in the sudan and we're in for the last few days president bashir has made a lot of very worrying statements and there is a war on the border and i would be and in southern kordofan so yes you have to look at the security guard everything that has been said i agree totally with because of the especially the challenges of oil and ethnicity we have to help this southern sudanese the u.s. and others who care have to help them to build institutions incidentally i think if you stress democracy you will of word want people wrongly called the oil case it is not their kids what is necessary is once you have oil you are to build strong institutions to do with the oil the united states is well endowed with oil it doesn't corrupt their their country as much as people assume for other places so i do think that yes they foreclose on military and security may

seem skewed but that is their fair step now the hardware begins our run started it comes and the country. independent people should not say everything is done and go home particularly people like me octavia stand and people in the united states who do put pressure on what the u.s. ought to do we have our work cut out for us to pressure the u.s. government to build the i'm very institutions i think i share the concern in your question that you shouldn't be against military only let's talk about the military here if i go to the invites or human rights watch and amnesty international are very concerned about the funding of the military in the south because they know. soldiers have been responsible for grave human rights abuses including unlawful killings of civilians and looting and destruction of civilian property i mean again i mean is this is this a good time for independence if you have you have militias and security forces that

are not very disciplined to be polite the security situation is extraordinarily difficult. it's very easy in the euphoria leading up to the end to end dependence day it's very easy to simply put aside the fact that there is active fighting going on in the in south kordofan there there are claims by various ethnic groups of. north north sudan sensually trying to destroy them is independent and cities in other words south sudan has to have at this stage a robust security establishment all of that said it is perfectly true that in south sudan as elsewhere in africa the behavioral and the training of the military is not necessarily what we would like it also makes the training of military all the

more important and it's interesting jonathan if i go to you i mean it's an interesting mix here i mean the united states has been spending enormous money amount of money on the security situation there and as it was pointed out in this program there's a heck of a lot of oil there i think there's an estimated six billion barrels of oil on the ground underground i mean so you have a very large security force in a lot of oil is that it could make speakers why would the security forces be more interested in revenues. place important to keep in mind that the southern army of the sudan people's liberation army is the largest employer in south sudan by far this is going to be a country with very little employment opportunity now the s.p.l. a is too large everybody recognizes that and there are a lot of soldiers in there who should probably be the mobilized but it's very difficult for the southern government to do that because there are few alternatives in terms of employment for any demobilized soldiers and there's

a chance that any demobilized soldier is my revolt or join some of the current rebellions in the south so that's really a sensitive issue for the southern leadership i think the south is actually rather unified around their oil and they're certainly unified around keeping as much of the oil and keeping as much of the profits as they can but there is certainly speculation about corruption in the oil sector and speculation that the army has been involved in that i mean if i go to you you see a possible future for south sudan like maybe like nigeria because of the oil. number one i hope not number two i don't really think it because i think of cause they'll be overlaps they'll be they'll be similarities but i think for me the differences will be essential because if into nothing else we have the example of nigeria to to to look out and can try to avoid the things that got them in trouble

and so i am i'm not emphasize again i think the good is making sure that we build democratic institutions the challenges that michael tonally is i've mentioned are all correct in the give them the right emphasis garbs they don't mean ones of the army and the dominance of the s.p.l. and the ethnic issues but i think we do have the example of other problem areas in africa the sound in sudanese people and the government how can watch by the do need international help and international assistance and i'm a it's also our guy and i'm on the hopeful side and not nothing and i mean sense because you know we are in washington washington yes celebrate and live for over two hundred years of the a new trend is if you cast your mind back it looked like a very impossible mission when windows peter was declare independence and so when people feel strongly about it they can take on the challenges i do think with my strength time to talk about the rule of khartoum and president bashir here because

with all of the internal challenges are in sudan i do think are you with these are exactly as we are asked to be returned from a break after the break we'll continue our discussion and spend state. of. the. state.

download the official tea allocation to your i pod touch from the i q samsung. video. r.s.s. feeds now in the palm of your. a telemarketer broadcasting live from washington d.c. coming up today on the big picture.

welcome back to talk about two minds who were talking about the birth of another sit down. can. ok mr mesereau i like to go to you know it was mentioned right before i went to the break what about the north north sudan is it will be. their attitude towards the new country to the south can they make or break the possibility of a sovereign state a state that can actually take care of itself with all that oil by the way but nonetheless what cards they play to make or break a new country. well. they certainly have the potential if for example you have full scale warfare breaking out between south sudan sudan and the north the

emergence of south sudan will become infinitely more complicated i note that according to the press this morning bashir will be in juba for the the end dependent state celebrations i hope that is correct because ever since the comprehensive peace agreements were signed the north has dragged its feet. on the process by shear himself openly and publicly accepts the end dependence of south sudan but bashir has an opposition he has an opposition in khartoum and there are others in khartoum who are not happy hour or about south sudan becoming independent not least because of the oil there is a kind of mantra that you can sometimes hear in khartoum to the effect that bashir

has lost south sudan bashir has failed to end the crisis in darfur and the sheers approach to the opposition in khartoum. is repressive so bashir is not a totally independent actor and this ok jonathan when you think about it i mean. we didn't annoy seize all this oil and i did point out i mean right now the oil does go through the north for exports so i mean there is some kind of interdependence already built into this relationship irrespective of attitudes political attitudes about the and opinions of the new state. and this is why the oil is actually a positive factor in terms of north-south relations in some ways because there is such mutual dependence between the north and the south in order for both of them to get their oil revenue the south gets about ninety eight percent of its revenue from oil almost all of their revenue comes from oil but north the numbers are a little fuzzy but probably something in the neighborhood of sixty percent of their

revenue comes from oil they both need it they can't afford to live without it despite some of the heated rhetoric that we're seeing and so the fact that almost all the oil about eighty percent of it comes out of the ground in the south that then goes through pipelines in the north and refineries in the north means that they have to work out a deal on oil they can't afford to do anything else and so i think there will be a deal on oil probably not by saturday july ninth but they've agreed to keep talking and i think that mutual dependence does act as a brake on a return to full scale civil war which i don't think is likely i do think it's likely that we're going to see some of this violence around a north-south border for some time to. go ahead you want to jump in there. yes i want to i think the ambassador is very right i mean jonathan is right to buy the ambassador made the point of president bashir in the north not be an independent and i think that is totally true he shared flight on the five he had been saying

that he. again when decision of the south to break away he sat seated but then who are seen beginning last week and since he has been very believe what i want to see another five in the northern. china china's new nation by sheer which also would bring in their rule of the united states i mean we all know president obama. wants an africa and he's think you need interest in africa from could two of those mrs. this is obama was yes in south africa and so i hope that behind the scenes president obama is talking to the chinese because their current influence on on both. sudan's especially the north because the our land is problem by companies from three countries the major one being a chinese company it is the law it is sold to china and order by should come from

china so i hope the us is talking to china so that may play a constructive role because you're not going to is right they are. dealt with properly can reduce the friction between the two countries because unlike you said yes they both need is so it can be a positive factor in this thing that mr ambassador i'm going to you know i did during celebrations on saturday hell ring in the new country there should be a lot of dignitaries there i think colin powell is going to be there the current u.s. u.s. representative the united nations susan rice is going to be there and a lot of other dignitaries is it all about oil i mean if it were any other if there were no oil there do you think a lot of dignitaries would be showing up. yes yes i think there would be a lot of dignitaries showing up because yes oil is important but what is also important is that this marks the aaron. a conflict which has gone on for almost

a generation. i mean the warfare between between the north and the south has marred africa for for more than twenty years i want to take this opportunity though to jump in with respect to the mutual dependence of the south and the north on each other and with that particular focus on oil it's perfectly true yes indeed chile dependent the question becomes whether the leadership of the two and here i would particularly focus on whether the leadership of the two recognize that fact and are willing to take that reality into account as they develop their policies that's what we're going to have to watch over the over the next several weeks. to share concern about the

bulletin runs of comments that bashir has been making over over the past week or so i will be watching with a great deal of interest about what he actually says on independence day and the day after when you think about that jonathan the meaning if there if we have by sheer is not so secure is a lot of people make them i think he is i mean he could have a lot of trouble he's going to have to start saying the right things are respected it's against his own country's best interest because we've been talking about this interdependence i mean if it no one gets any money if they'll put oil isn't pumped out of the country so i mean what kind of what kind of variables is he could have to deal with to get and maintain his power base but you still accept that a new country has come into being. well when we talk about him saying the right things it depends what audience he's talking to and the right things for the international audience can be very different then the right things for the domestic northern sudanese audience the message that president bush here in the n.c.p.

leadership are trying to send right now within the north is that we are in control and that there aren't going to be any more breakaways like what we're seeing in southern sudan and this i think explains to some extent the violence that we're currently seeing in southern kordofan state and the efforts to disarm some troops in southern kordofan state in the north who are aligned with the south and that of course has been a rather violent process to go back to oil as well i think it's important not to overemphasize the importance of oil in sudan it's a medium level producer about four hundred ninety thousand barrels a day doesn't make it a big right level producer and for the u.s. oil is actually not that important because the u.s. doesn't consume any sudanese oil because of the sanctions that the u.s. has on sudan so this has as much to do with the history and the bloodshed that ambassador campbell was talking about as the oil it's not just an oil story me if i

go well kind of precedent is being said here could we see even regions within south sudan start breaking apart or even the north seeing seeing the state of the north star collapsing if once we see by sheer whatever moves he makes one way or another it could destabilize the north as well we've been focusing a lot on the south what about the north yes that is absolutely true and it's yeah i hope it doesn't happen i mean the ambassador is right there was me going on for a long time but i would think you being fair that you know i'm from ghana granted because i'm in one thousand nine hundred seven so the. tensions grew crowding into non-self actually you can see it's. signs of it in one nine hundred fifty six so the conflict has actually been there for more than fifty years so this is the brick of the south and the and then ninety eight percent for the referendum to me tells me that this was

a special case and that i hope it doesn't spread to other parts or sued downtrend only in sudan trying to break up i mean there's even some talk among some of the other need groups that well in southern sudan i don't want to put too much of a fine point on it but people always talk about breaking away i think we should be i said cian rather than the rule and i hope it doesn't happen in other parts of sudan by beyond whom and it depends on how the government governs the country if people feel that the their wishes and grievances are taking to our count in the i listen to even if the problems are known so there will still be which. allows us in the short time left to give some thought to places like darfur and of cause there sanctions the u.s. as it is now the slowdown was mentioned but again i think washington if it is creative this special. lyman if it is creative those pressure points can actually

be used not just on by shear but also on the oprah zation and also rebels in other areas like darfur to mention that there are no more breaks because i think i say general rule i don't like to see it bring tribes in africa for that matter it benefits political ambitions political people more than ordinary citizens but in their case our son in sudan i think it's the assertion that proves the rule ok jonathan i'm going to give you the last word in the program what is the future of south sudan in three seconds. i think the biggest challenge in south sudan is for the south sudanese to define themselves and to define what it means to be south sudanese for a long time what has held southerners together is getting to this referendum getting to this end dependence and also the common enemy that they see in the north it's now time to get beyond that and to define what it means to be

a member of this new brand new country of south sudan ok that's a very good point in the program on many thanks to my guest today in washington thanks to our viewers for watching us here arche see you next time and remember cross talk. to. him or her broadcasting live from washington d.c. coming up today on the big picture.

the air.