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can. you. follow in welcome to cross talk on peter lavelle libya's stalemate in the sands of nato bombing campaign and aid to anti kadafi rebels have only hardened political facts on the ground western intervention was intended to last a few weeks now is open ended instead of dislodging khadafi nato allies are left to bicker among themselves. to cross the nato mission in libya i'm joined by your johnson in london he's the founder and director of viewpoint africa also in london we have marco gas like he is a political analyst an expert on southeast european affairs and in barcelona we call cross to omar asher he is

a lecturer in politics of the modern arab world at the university of exit are all right gentlemen this is cross talk that means you can jump in anytime you want omar and i to go to you first in barcelona how would you assess nato's operations in libya to date because depending on the new source you want to read it stalemate it's quagmire. we're coming across reports of rebels committing our human rights. violations they're not looking so pretty anymore and it's just basically a civil war that has come to a stalemate so how would you assess nato's operations to date. well that's civil resistance camping thirty to a ship that somehow turned into an on conflict because that was the choice of. the logically and it is intervention came out of necessity calls from the. opposition fighters nine hundred twelve watch the situation was quite bad. but that his forces were. given what given the history of

a different level of aggression given what happened. there was the likelihood of so i mean with all the let me ask you thing is as you think he closed playing a positive role right now. it's hard the whole situation is not positive the whole situation is obviously far from ideal. speaking there is some advancement on the ground given that with this started in march. whether this will yield a military victory for the. sea the international council and the need to or whether it will end up in a political compromise by which he gets out or some of his clans and some of his regime figures will be part of the future of libya this is what's that's the question that is. put forward now ok the other thing also is well how many negative consequences can happen in any on campaign we can talk about you know what can

happen in the postcard if he goes well whether he stays in power or party in power or whether. some of it is or whether he goes away in both cases there will be some negative consequences in aftermath of nature's intervention ok mark what do you think of our nato intervention in libya today. you know later in the program only quote some of the figures within nato all bickering among themselves and pointing fingers i guess they didn't think about it too far ahead when they started this campaign go ahead. well nato always goes into places as i know very well from from previous experience later interventions for its own reasons there's no concern there for any opposition however marginal or have a morally justified they may or may not be nato is. aggressive alliance which operates on the basis of that it wants to place its military in key areas of the world command and control resources and territory that's what it's there for it's

not some kind of moral creature it's a beast really and when the nato powers can't make money and propaganda work for them and undermine governments abroad then they move on to the military machine and the propaganda the false stories the indictment by tame courts which should know better and all of these things have been done in many other countries and they've been done so leave you now and that experience of all the libyan people as well i think we would have had a short conflict here perhaps there was a case for pressuring colonel gadhafi to listen to the demands for change within his own society but there's no case to launch a major war and an open ended one a new iraq. on the people of libya this will not lead to anything good it's not leading to anything good now but it was never designed it was designed to lead to occupation and division of libya by the nato pact so that's what it's there for that's what it's going to do you know if i know you in london also i mean nato didn't plan for this very well i mean and it certainly looks like they're bombing

campaign is not only moving anything forward gadhafi still there or they're just killing civilians now as well i mean is there is this public bombing campaign he'd be yielding the final result can you bomb this country to peace. well every day that goes by labor has been cut into bits and pieces the infrastructure has been damaged not to mention that the people are being displaced from their homes and people are living in abject fear but of course the longer it goes on the more likely the was made to go bad i gainst nato because it's very much about hearts and minds how can you maintain the status quo how can you and show you keep the coalition in the fashion it is currently with nato together and how are you going to be able to build on consensus international yes you know currently the chinese the the indians russians and a few other countries are expressed reservations about nato bombing and the longer it's going to take it's going to cost a lot more money a lot of these countries are not in the mood for spending money and from a from

a from an interview perspective is damaging every second because more than likely you can make more mistakes you can get the coalition to get the wrong in from of his bombings and the campaign to go bitterly wrong against them so i think the long way to go the more likely nature is to find itself in hot water as we've been seeing over a period of time and the longer it does go gadhafi could think that he's been able to survive this long he could go go it's alone to the end but it's very very difficult to see how we can come out of this one simply because the the overwhelming power is just way too much for him and but the thing is he's not we can enough to defeat the rebels on the rebels are clearly not strong enough to d.p. to defeat him so we have this stalemate situation which is not really anything anyone and i think i as a whole the libyan people are suffering oh my if. barcelona there's been some news reports that france is in direct talks with members of the khadafi regime though just prior to that france condemned italy for calling for a ceasefire and then simultaneously have khadafi spokespeople say there should be

a cease fire should be approved prerequisite for some kind of negotiations so it looks like there is there are elements there that people want to talk what's wrong with the libyan proposal a cease fire to talk no more bombing and see what goes what do we have to lose. the main issue is that we have very serious credibility problem and credibility problem comes from forty two years of history when he was ruling but also a credibility problem in the long ago on the really long ago the west is race mr gadhafi remember remember all the pictures we're told where we're you know obama with you know the elite of the west yes i mean so there is a credibility issue but i mean it goes back and forth right. yeah because of course here i mean. i think one of our colleagues just mentioned the west operates on beaches of interests and when interests intersects then you know

a lot of the human rights violations are looked not look at but when the interests do not intersect then those human rights low shelves are are highlighted and that's the case with libya obviously oil interest and other interest on the moral outrage i mean we were talking now about politicians have put their feet he has done throughout his rule is rule but if you if you want to speak about an i.c.c. indictment the correct one that could have happened in july in june one thousand nine hundred six when the deficit forces committed in a secular crime against humanity in obviously in prison in tripoli were twelve hundred thirty political prisoners were gunned down with mass graves and i visited the area later on in two thousand and ten and you would have stories from the outside there's people outside the prison and there are stories from x. detainees who witnessed part of this my second so it's not like something that was nobody knew about but you had actual witnesses that heard and know some of the

eagles of what's happening but this did not happen this was postponed until two thousand and eleven where you know the interests with not pulling together although it's politically expedient politically expedient marco if i go to you i mean why not why can't there be negotiations if they're on both sides of the conflict you're talking about why can't there be an attempt to talk not fighting i mean you don't have to like each other really green. well the basic reason is for letters it's not not a talking organization you could say because basically if it was it would listen to the mandate it's been given the mandate security council resolution one thousand nine hundred three demands it's very first clause the immediate establishment of a cease fire so what part of that doesn't and nato not understanding cease fire and if nato ceases fire the rebels it supporting it will cease fire and that it will also be forced to cease fire then you may before things get much worse have

a chance of a dialogue which the resolution also calls for and then you may have a chance ultimately for reconciliation between the peoples within libya before too much murder too much death has occurred before too much foreign occupation and puppet governments have been installed so the best chance for libya is that this war starts very quickly indeed but of course that isn't what nato wants because nato wants that the usual suspects within nato i should say the ones who attack everywhere i do is use the same excuses want to do the same thing they did elsewhere here they want to occupy libya they want to get their compliant puppet government in which will give them cheap deals good contracts they want they got it all planned out and the libyan people will be the victims if they allow this water can see you and that will include the rebel side of the year it sounds very interesting to me is that we iraqis didn't plan for after be invasion it seems like in this case we really have everything planned except for winning the war where you think of argo. well yes if there's one thing is that the americans and some of its

allies have got to learn from the experiences that they saw in somalia not to mention afghanistan and iraq it's failed miserably in those areas and if it continues in the fashion it is with libya we are likely to go down that same route i think the concern all around is how do you ensure that you maintain that what the mandates get the u.n. mandate clearly calls for which is not regime change it's protection of civilians and property so i think it's going back to the blueprint how can we gets nato to start complying to international regulations in terms of maintaining the status quo rather than choosing and for me it's all it's own opinion as to whether i don't want to get rid of gadhafi or not mark or you want to jump in there. yeah it's not just international regulations it's international law and nato does believe that it can adjust manipulate its way to ignore or deceive the security council once it's in there on any basis it's going to act on its own basis it's this is just arrogance by the western powers i believe it's a good colonial. background these this is the new imperialism that we're faced with

i think it's the biggest danger to a stable world that's what i meant was russia cannot i'm going to leave here asleep and here we go to a break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on libya stay with r.t. . if you can. still . flirtatiously disciplinary. case. were lifted the penitentiary system transform a criminal into a law abiding citizen. prisms life behind bars an arche. limitations free credit taken free. or charges free arrangement free. free.

free. download free broadcast live video for your media project free media don carty dot com. can. welcome back across our computer all about the true mind you were talking about the protected conflict in libya. egypt. i want to find back to you in barcelona isn't this kind of. attitude that absolute surrender total surrender of the gadhafi and his his going to asia isn't that this

short sided that doesn't that just keep the conflict going because what reason does he have he's going to be put on trial by western powers. for war crimes or what what interest is he have even duty to get any room at all i mean a human nature would say you have to then you have to stand and fight to the death which is continuous this civil war this protracted war in libya. yeah i partly agree because but this is a pro conflict process you know we didn't start by an i.c.c. indictment or started by you know putting him in the polls associates of his regime on international wanted this didn't start with again it's a bit of distance campaign mainly organized by local libyan people whether anybody has the order in tripoli or in. other places in libya and then there that apply was a vicious oppression campaign that seldon's of this an organized campaign by the. demonstrators who are stories and i'm jealous oh not an intervention mark but the

question. i just ask you if it if it was just a civil resistance campaign how were they able to take a city like bin garfield six hundred seventy thousand people with a repressive regime and the organs of the relations are very much as i understand this at seventeen yes you're sure that seventeenth of february the the armed conflict actually erupted the by the end of february maybe because there was defections within the regime of but that he or they did minister the head of the special forces. the justice minister multiple diplomats throughout the world all of them saw the level of oppression and they were amazed at that level and you saw a series of defections which is. what led the situation to be armed because then you had military personnel saying that enough is enough we're not going to shoot on our own people and they were siding with the people like what we saw similar situations in egypt in tunisia except that the army in egypt in tunisia acted as

one unit so these are sighted people a point there was no you know if i could go to you i mean the thing is is that the west has chosen the side ok i've been to do good comparisons to other situations don't really work because the united states and it's not needed. a certain group of people rebels that actually human rights watch you know you committing atrocities against their own people here is this just opportunism on the part of some people in libya and western powers. well i think well exactly it is because one would go ahead. i think on extension yes because the rebels. never really been able to show that they can control that country they've never really truly been able to show that they have the government skills to be able to control that country and i think the west are going to show who seriously bringing all the various factions within libya as one on one control post gadhafi than it is weather wise to remove gadhafi so i think it's a lack of foresight lack of understanding of the issues on the ground i'm going. to

look for haste to get into a conflict a confrontation that you know very little about and that i think what's happening now with nato is that they realize that they've jumped into quickly conscious of taking sides too quickly when they should have stayed back and watch the situation and i know awfully over time they could have done so but i think it just shows that the the west ever so eager to occupy that land on down to control the oil and. it would appear in this particular instance that's supporting the rebels who are clearly ill disciplined poorly equipped who do not have the mandate to control that country is a poor decision because we can see now that it is not going to achieve anything marco if i go to you maybe just strap later on what we just heard really is nato looking at the nato does think this is going to be a quick easy war a me it can redeem itself after its c.e.o. but humiliation i would say in afghanistan i mean or is it just domestically driven you know sort of cause he has to show that he's somebody you know that can stand up

to take caters which though he in braces embraces dictators all of the time particularly before the arab spring i mean what you get is the main motivation in your in your opinion. i think the problem is. for nato that gadhafi is an independent ruler who would like to have an independent country and if possible an independent confidence colonel gadhafi has come up with the idea of an african development bank and african goldstein are those moves which could hugely lessen the poverty in africa and the dead in debts of this old african nations to the i.m.f. it's a problem also because he plans out that as a rival to the dollar and the euro that was a mistake saddam hussein tried a similar thing in two thousand and he was invaded as well so it's not a clever idea for a medium right country with oil in it to actually be planning your own currency because the big the big world powers on the west aren't too keen on that scenario so really he was a threat to them or reserves were very attractive to them very close to them and very high quality so really he takes all the boxes for

a good invasion plus they had to hold historical scores to settle because gadhafi came to power on the basis of removing a pretty apartheid rule in the first place so i would say if they want to get rid of him let's be elections in libya let's let the people decide let's have the risk respect for the losers in those elections but let's hold elections and if mr gadhafi is so unpopular let the people tell us and if he's not let's find out. if you talk now to that is going to be telling you that if gadhafi clearly house shown that he said that he will live and die in libya he's not said that several times and because he is now being squeezed to the wall these are no means of carrots come out of the situation he can't negotiate his way out of trouble i think that the future is very very own kind for libya and we could see a rogue state developing over time especially something similar to what we've seen in somalia so it's a very difficult time for everyone concerned i agree with it's very interesting omar that this is continuing now to the point where i mean we really creating

a rogue state particularly if the country is partitioned i mean that is also a possible option here where you have a partition is it was pointed out early in the program nato bombs fell on a country they didn't really know very much about. ok i'll give you the positive scenarios and the negatives ones obviously that's an intriguing national council right and the ashes under interim because it didn't not say that it will take over power after cut their fee it says that it will be there. to just run a transitional period after that there will be a constitution police elections least a serious democratization process takes over in libya to transfer it from almost a fiefdom to a modern democratic country with with constitutions so that's the whole but obviously in any society there are too many variables going on and too many you have to be and you can have negative consequences one of them is obviously you get a tribal i society what happened there was again called look at their histories and

we should not avoid the transition of a situation where there was peaceful demonstrations for the situation was an armed conflict. post armed conflict throughout and that is and those are tribal society with arms around this is one of the problems obviously and especially for there for yourself the choice of staying is actually dangerous for him if he lost power if you lost control of the country because it now has been that it was almost every tribe whether in the east or in the west whether from its internal. look so that's one of the issues the tribal wardrobe and that of politics the other issue is this isn't something he is sure of divisions marketing manager if i want to say this isn't something colonel gadhafi has brought about deliberately on himself he clearly like most rulers including repressive one throughout the middle east wanted a quiet life the fact is this problem has been visited on him by somebody else's agenda and it's

a western colonial power agenda which has been talking to his country and i know i know lots of examples throughout the world that repressive regimes will gradually open themselves up to democratization and it's happening it didn't need a wall it didn't need a nato attack you need to die. even before any of this happened and that's what we haven't got and it's all very well blaming mr gadhafi fall for the situation but let's remember he was in power for forty two years and pretty much it was stable and getting better he managed to create a man made river project which was furthermore the plan the key for my column something binding for north africa ease that he's done a great deal for his people subsidized housing market cheap free education i mean maybe he's a socialist leaning agenda didn't suit the us but i don't see too many things but he could have done differently and certainly i think now he was very much in favor of a peaceful transition to a better system and not the war one which nato proposes ok omar look like you want to disagree with him but. quite disagree. that became in one

nine hundred sixty nine by a cool remove the border stayed there ousted most of the plotters with him jailed some of them most of them fled on appeal and then you had this yeas of extreme the oppressive campaigns throughout the seventy's from the mid seventy's started during the eighty's and throughout the ninety's media opposition after opposition was sacked out including by the way the socialists and the leftists many of them that wanted to give reform and he'll institutionalize you sound sounding for the middle east were ousted and including for folks who are nationalists like the national. from all ideological colors most of them were ousted and this is how he stayed in power there was no elections there was no attempt to reinstitute institutionalized the country we're talking about economical option this is a country that is ruled by a very small clique that benefits from exactly saudi arabia to the most high was always our source for many reasons and you had your grandma had read just been

through this region since. i was a part in the middle east leaders of actually in the middle of the loss of her father are going to be so julie julie and general sandra. oh my oh go ahead if you had the common sense the common sense approach is the fact that it's people power we've seen we've seen a movement across the north africa across the middle east where people are taking ownership and asking for change and this is just an example of that gadhafi had been in power for forty two years he's time was not nonetheless the people said they wanted change the question is not about people wanting change itself it's where the change can happen without foreign intervention is for the libyan people to determine their own cause to determine their own country and that's not what's happening currently ok mark i'll give you last word you had what brought the flight into values like this especially for the libyan people are against him as omar suggests but how is it that he's managed on the inside city of tripoli how is it that they clearly are on his side in those mass demonstrations going on over there we don't look falsify they look as genuine as anything else i've seen coming out of

libya he clearly has a huge amount of popular support as well let's not blind ourselves so that. i didn't say the old injection or the libyans against their feet i didn't say that i said the overwhelming was not if you want to change you see you want to force the country gentlemen we've run out of time elizabeth like this to be treated just like the war in libya is going to and many thanks to my guests today in london and in barcelona and thanks to our viewers for watching us here r.t. see you next time and remember rostock rules. to keep the story. on. the show.