artie's marina part i will sit down with him tonight she may already have done that but that's they do it for our show for more go to our team got cons last usa and have a great night. you know sometimes you see a story and it seems so poorly you think you understand it and then you glimpse something else and you hear or see some other part of it and realize that everything you thought you knew you don't know i'm sorry welcome to the big picture . if.

the kick. started. to. flow and welcome the crosstalk i'm peter lavelle turkey in the evolving geo political order in the middle east and arab world is ankara making a bid to play the role of a regional hedge a man on the back of the arab spring and at the expense of western powers or is it merely following a foreign policy based on national interests. can. start . to cross talk turkey external ambitions i'm joined by john feffer in washington is co-director of foreign policy in focus at the institute for policy studies also in washington we have joseph he is an adjunct professor at the american university school of international service and in london across the racial saudi she is a journalist and author of not the enemy israel's jews from arab lands all right

folks this is crosstalk that means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage it but first i guess it's an understatement saying turkey is a country on the move and don't care turkey has squandered no time thinking think asian strategy with the arab world to a new level last week prime minister recep tayyip erdogan on how what observers have doubt the arab spring toward visiting tunisia egypt and libya and into augment the country's clout in the region facing political change addressing crowds of libyans in tripoli and extending offers of help to one show that he was acutely aware of the importance of his time in. the talker see is ending totalitarian regimes and disappearing. experts say earlier ones upswing in diplomacy reflects turkey's growing impatience to become a leading political force in the region itself assurance driven by years of having the unique ability to negotiate with all sides of conflicts in the middle east as

well as conduct successful trade relations with its neighbors and any government that engages like this has a selfish purposes a sense of mission in syria is in turmoil and that since we are in this area we are much more qualified c. intervene turkey has in mind the role of an important regional power and with the recent upheaval in the arab world that sense of mission has become aggrandized and arguably more aggressive on the same visit to tripoli or to one vehemently condemned government's crackdown on dissent in syria up until recently turkey's ally and earlier in cairo he called to uphold the palestinian bid for statehood rallying for the palestinians cause has in fact become one of the pillars of burdwan soft power strategies much to the detriment of ankara's relations with televisa throwing the ball in israel's court once said some countries in the region cannot read the changes that are happening on top of which israel experts say that turkey is

a player to reckon with if that's the case how enduring is that we will it's employed in the emerging regional or prove well of give its competitors a run for their money or overplay of hand a big spends of its western partnerships back to you thank you very much ok rachel i know you first in london are we seeing a new paradigm we see the washington riyadh tel aviv axis being replaced by ankara and cairo and maybe other capitals in the arab world what i'm getting at are we seeing a major power change in the region. it's starting to look that way i mean turkey has seemed to be able to read the changes in the middle east. brought about by the ira but risings it's been able to read them very well and it's been able to read them in a manner that other nations other players in the region have not been able to do so precisely at the time when the western when israel can no longer rely on

compliant repressive regimes in the middle east like egypt syria to basically underwrite israeli foreign policy in the region precisely at that time. steps on the stage the turkish prime minister. he goes on this middle east into war where he is greeted like a rock star there are billboards massive billboards of him with his picture lining the arab streets. there are crowds cheering his welcome in cairo so he seems to have understood the situation and played it very well just if i'm going to you in washington i'd like to ask the same question in a slightly different way is are countries like turkey and egypt on the right side of history as opposed to the western powers that constantly keep stumbling over themselves in trying to understand the other people that have been going on most of this year in the arab world. but first of all let me say that the capital of israel

is jerusalem not elevate with all due respect i think that's a different topic for a different program but go ahead and all that but it was mentioned that it is between capitals and then it was mentioned tel aviv television i think you know it was i mean let me come back to your question right. well if it's there right or wrong side of history i will say i mean you know your story is being written now and later on we shall analyze the retrospect what really is being easterly of the world was just passing wince or whatever but look talking about democracy in the middle east is not something that should have any problem with israel on the contrary i mean as you know for many years israeli leaders by the way also prime minister netanyahu and made the point that there could be and there should be peace only when there is a real democracy in the arab world so in that sense that is no problem for us and i would very much welcome democratic changes in all the out of countries not just in put it all to give a counter basis situation for example syria would be much more optimistic about

a possibility self an agreement between israel and syria which is democratic rather day and there futility of all the efforts that have taken place for so many years between us in the ass to jeanne's i mean half is and then. so altogether i don't think that this is a question that can be already decided what is exactly the type of face really why it's really you know it's kind of interesting that it's maybe said it's very interesting is the people on the ground seem to understand become trees in the world and leaders in the world that are on the right side of history if i go to john in washington what do you think about that because you know we have on one hand you know actually turkey is a very interesting example i know it's been said in the past it's a very good example of islamic democracy a country that has its own ambitions and will no longer be just a surrogate of the west it's been very clear and of course to the recent spat with israel me where i'm getting at is that turkey is really standing up in the region is listening and. very much welcoming cherokees new stance or greater stance.

absolutely and turkey is not just kind of responding to what's going on in the middle east it's inspiring what's going on in the middle east as you point out the a.k.p. party in turkey the ruling party in turkey has successfully kind of moved turkey away from what was a military dictatorship and has proved that you can have a majority islam country that embrace this democracy and that stablish is a kind of model of a secular state in a religious society i think that is a very potent example for the rest of the middle east and this is something that the people on the ground in the middle east understand it's something that i think increasingly even the neighbors of turkey understand and it's something even the united states is understanding and remember the united states is planning to work with turkey for a post assad syria according to the latest news from the washington post new york times so it's not like the russian it's not like washington is opposed to the kurds

in many cases washington is working hand in hand with to respond to what's going on in the region but if i could keep going on that with rachel it's the same time in prison it's not going to follow washington's lead like it did during the cold war and for many years since the end of the cold war we've seen a dramatic change in turkey's political fortunes geo politically and there are almost all net positive. it's not going to follow america's lead no but i think turkey does have the capacity and it almost it's written into its geographical d.n.a. to be able to straddle both sides you know it has one foot in europe and one foot it nature is able to face both sides and it has proven in the past that it's able to do that in the way that it is trying to broker situations in the middle east but certainly it has broken with the u.s. in its stance with israel of late and having said that diplomatic ties with israel it really changed tack after israel's gaza assault of late two thousand and eight

early two thousand and nine after which over a thousand palestinians were killed most of them turned out to be noncombatants. that was when. prime minister. took to the national stage publicly shamed the israeli president shimon peres at the world economic forum in davos where he said to him you know how to kill people before storming off stage that was cemented last year after a garza bound aid flotilla was stormed by israeli military commanders and nine turkish civilians were killed. since then despite you know great attempts and some u.s. pressure there has not been a situation brought about where israel has apologized for those deaths as a result of which turkey has so its ties which is a huge loss for israel and i think

a bigger scale all right josh if i know you want to jump in go right ahead. yelena well first of all i would take issue with some of the facts that rachel mentioned but i would remind us all and this is a very important point really to understand the a.t.p. came to power in two thousand and three if i am not wrong and war two thousand and two they already do then started the very gradual but this policy of taking away from the close relationship with the us and also with israel and for example we all remember that they refused to support american efforts in iraq i love getting into the merits of it was that they were right or not i'm just putting it in a real properly story context however one should remember that israeli government tried to well equipped the turkish government under one and i would remind us all the previous israeli prime minister was in a room with the one when there was a telephone conversation with president bashar assad of syria and the two parties

were not that far away from moving along dramatically between israel and syria with turkish mediation then of course the war in class i was a problem and i wouldn't like now to get into all these distorted descriptions of rachel about what happened there but the point really is the point really is that the turkish government as be a volunteer for a few years in a way in retrospect one can say was kind of creating playground work or laying the groundwork for what is the criticism now let me go to john as we go to germany for the break with john do you think the israelis are gambling too much with their relationship with turkey by not being more flexible. well i've got to go to be clear is this is not just israel this is netanyahu this is the netanyahu government good point joseph is right that israel in turkey had a very strong military relationship economic relationship but the netanyahu government has gone way off the right hand side of the political spectrum it's been absolutely unconscionable to john let me jump in here we're going to short break

and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on turkey's foreign policy stay with our team. and. the official antti up location on the phone the i pod touch from the q sampson. on the go. video on demand oxys minefield comes and r.s.s. feeds now in the palm of your. question on the call wealthy british style.

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it's. ok to start. welcome back to cross talk and people about remind you we're talking about turkey's changing foreign policy. can. start. ok and i could go back to john in washington john one of the interesting things about turkey as pointed out here is that turkey can deal with hamas hezbollah the taliban while keeping ties with israel the lebanese and afghan governments how far can you go in all those directions without really muddying up the waters and really alienating all partners at one point tom it's an amazing foreign policy that turkey

has to be able to deal with so many different kinds of partners. you're right i mean the a.k.p. came out with a foreign policy which basically called zero problems with neighbors and this was in stark contrast with almost gerritsen like foreign policy of its predecessors and it's hard to repair relations with greece with armenia cyprus all across the region now that is remarkable from an economic point of view because of course trade relations have followed the diplomatic warm and it's definitely. accrued benefits to turkey on the diplomatic side but there are challenges i mean it's very difficult for instance for turkey to have an agreement with the united states for anti-ballistic missile. base or a drone base which is specifically designed to go up against iran while it maintains a very strong relationship with tehran especially an economic relationship so there

are definitely going to be stresses here but it's rachel said you know turkey believes that it has a foot on both sides it's it's trying to get into the e.u. but it has also said look we don't get into the e.u. we can handle that it's a nato member but it's gone up against the united states on a number of issues so it's trying to straddle both both camps and many camps at the same time it will definitely had some challenges but every country has challenges and tries to balance those relations it's just that we don't expect a middle power like turkey to be able to do that we only expect that from a superpower and i think turkey has very grand ambitions as a middle power in that regard. i think it's very interesting if we can just kind of push out the the envelope right here at what point does cherokee have to kind of decide because we see the nato countries invading arab lands killing muslims in it what point is the public opinion and i think to really point out here is that turkey is a democracy it has its own challenges but the government there is popular it is

legitimate and it has to listen to people and the bombing and killing of muslims or something that's just doesn't go and there's go down with the electorate there. i'm not sure if turkey will have to decide or at what point it will have to make that decision but it does seem as though that's far it has been able to straddle both worlds i mean we've saw just a few days ago or so committed to. anti missile technology being introduced insists nato sudden turkey that's. as a nato country as nato second largest military country actually. we have seen that even while it has changed the dynamics in the middle east while it's changed its relationship to israel while it has first been very critical of the nato intervention in libya it does take a very very different stance quite often but at the same time it does seem able to

accommodate and honor its commitments to nato if i go to jersey when we recently had the prime minister the turkish prime minister in cairo news it was mentioned earlier the program he was greeted as a rock star do you see a new axis being developed in the in the in the region now or were western powers in israel as one of their surrogates in the region so you can start seeing something very very different here and that the united states and israel and other western powers are going to have to start compromising more instead of dictating terms in the region. well i hate to break up the idea picture that is being portrayed here about the success of turkish foreign policy. they are almost on the verge of war with cycles these days is great reconcile prose and they threaten greece there are only very very serious collision course with iran over the question of syria but coming back to the point about aging you have to remember while the plane original plane of the visit was to have

a big speech by prime minister at one eight hundred square the egyptian government refused to allow him to do so because they didn't like him to inflame. people in egypt. up in egypt was very enthusiastic but there are millions of people in cairo so i don't know whether we can say it's a majority of vision people or not finitely is popular among certain circles there not by the way among some of the muslim quarters or parties in egypt but look egypt and turkey cannot and will not fall in a strategic alliance for too long of a time for two simple reasons because throughout the modern history of the middle east the arab countries have always rejected any attempt by an all out of power resonator of iran of the shah which is she always a little bit out turkey which is sunni but not up to a gemini's our politics i can see objections coming to this from countries like saudi arabia also by the way from egypt and other countries to look what may seem

to day to be the tide to be the wave upon which the turks are writing i may seem to be totally different in a short period of time for many valuable said mark and also what will really happen in syria how it will be interpreted by the iranians and their allies in the middle east so look all this is very very complicated and one thing that we know about the middle east is that the politics of black and white don't work there anymore even the israeli card doesn't work anymore in the sense it used to be in the past or. one little example you may remember get weeks ago maybe in six weeks and also the syrian regime of bashar assad try to divert attention from the troubles in syria toward the border with israel. aroused opposition in syria itself where not even on one occasion the israeli flag was barely the streets there and i do a also with regard to egypt there are forces in egypt that are holding down the situation so altogether i would say look at the army's a great leader there's no question about it he's very popular he's doing well for

his country but he may be made to try to build too much in short period of time and there could be living through his downfall later on in terms of foreign policy ok john if i ask you one of the things go ahead rachel what do things i think is very interesting is that you know in light of what joseph had to say is i don't think that you know we we've always had just black and white from a western point of view looking at the arab and muslim world is very black and white and i think we've been very much surprised over the last few months and i think that's an understatement one thing i think there is a lot of unity and not just sectarian differences and the end of neo colonialism in the region by the west and i think that's one commonality that the entire region can embrace irrespective of your religious sect go ahead. i think i think israel misjudge is this the potential for turkey egypt alliance at its own peril and attempt to be that dismissive about it and say oh they're not going

to accept an arab or they're not going to accept a sunni or what. division you choose to impose on the facts of the matter is that turkey and egypt are already talking about regional alliance and it makes sense egypt is very keen to punch its regional weight as the largest arab country in the arab world. status that was constantly diminished and downplayed and compromised by the former president hosni mubarak. turkey has cannily understood this kind of regional change and is keen to jump aboard and i also think it's an extraordinary miscalculation to keep saying that the israeli card is irrelevant clearly the palestinian cause is deeply significant across the middle east and until that becomes a focus for israel as well i think israel is running into very dangerous ground john what do you think about that i mean the relevance here because you know let's be fair here ok i mean this is an important issue among arabs and muslims all

around the world i think we all agree with that but then again which the practical can be used as a domestic political card at home for elections for popularity. to make sure you ploy minter high prices or you know you can say we can pull out be the palestinian card i mean there is an element of that as well was unfair. but there certainly is and it has played to a certain extent in turkey itself but i think in the dak pay the ruling party has you know been popular for id of other reasons namely anomic success as well as foreign policy victories i think you know it's important to recognize that turkey is exerting a great deal of soft power in the region that will last long the on the a.k.p. in the fortunes of air to one we're talking about economic investments we're talking about the schools i mean one visit that you didn't mention that aired over the summer was to somalia this is a place where no foreign leader was willing to go because it was so dangerous and

he went there and it's been followed by a turkish man carrying aid and that opened the flood gates for other humanitarian aid to go in and this is boosted turkish profile and the horn of africa tremendously this kind of soft power that turkey is wielding is far more important in many ways and than the military power that it is unfortunately using another other parts of the region whether we're talking northern iraq or threatened and cyprus for instance just what do you think it's very interesting soft power here is played mentioned and i think it's very very important it seems like turkey has done a really good job at mastering it is how is israel going to have to react to this because again we started out the program with democratization is israel feeling more comfortable in a region that is coming more democratic because there are islamic elements that are involved in these processes that in egypt also what we have in turkey is this something that israel has to learn to adjust because it will for decades it just

relied upon dictators and american help i mean doesn't have not more openness now needs to be a lot more finesse now instead of just relying on force. at least we'll get a spade we never like to take the risk of the night of those who make peace with disaster those are the people so again look at. those who want to make peace with as we should welcome them and the question these are about democracy merely say maybe the. before i repeat it now obviously we are in support of democracy all over the middle east because we had a democratic nation we would like to see all other nations being democratic and as i said before for example syria i believe and i have a by the way was a member of the israeli delegation for peace talks with syria in the past i believe that if we have a democratic government in syria it will be much more conducive to peace between our two countries than the nope so that's just one example but when you talk about democracy what do you mean really i mean if you take for example a country like the kingdom of jordan is it a democratic situation where the palestinian majority of seven people saying please

basically downtrodden or surprised by doubts in my dynasty i'm not saying that he could change all i'm saying is when we talk about democracy in the middle east let's face the realities what really are we expected to see and what we mean by that it's not enough to use the word democracy but what really kind of democracy in iraq. i know just like me very mean and we've run out of time thank you very much to my guest today in washington and in london and thanks to our viewers for watching us here r.t. so you next time remember last part means. you . feel.

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