so many brands that we couldn't even keep up with the. issue that came with dinosaurs. you're watching out in this is our main story this hour prime minister vladimir putin announces his don't run for the russian president in twenty twelve blocks by the main man in office now dmitri medvedev president for that is also revealed he leads the country's ruling party united russia in december's parliamentary elections and become the new prime minister should it win enough votes and. are this is down they started out right now norm the main news story here in moscow in the latest additional debate crosstalk that's in just a moment. welcome

across the aisle people about russia's great political parlor game has come to an end president dmitri medvedev announced he would support but i mean putin scaler to see you succeed him in next year's presidential poll was this the plan all along was it a good idea and what is what is called the tandem can he continue to work. to

cross-talk russia's political future i'm joined by fred we're here in the studio with me he is the moscow correspondent for the christian science monitor adrian pap's in cambridge he's a lecturer in politics at the university of kent and in london we cross to jonathan steele he is the international affairs commentator for the guardian all right gentlemen this is cross talk that means you can jump in anytime you want but first marcia want to walk us through about what happened at united russia's convention that's right peter the guessing game is officially over prime minister vladimir putin is set to run for president in two thousand and twelve election his candidacy endorsed of the united russia party convention by incumbent president. so children pretty lodging here given the proposal to have the electoral lists of the party united russia i'm to do some party work on condition of good performance in the parliamentary elections and my readiness for practical work and government i believe it would be right for the congress to support the candidacy of law to me

and to not go for a new presidential election the announcement and speculation about the trajectory of russia's election cycle and reassures russia starters around the world concerned with political risk. i'd like to express my gratitude to you for supporting my candidacy to run for president it's a great honor to whom they choose once and has already served two terms as president. before midnight if took over the job in two thousand and eight addressing saturday's convention putin in terms of just getting to take over the role as the next prime minister if the party performs well in parliamentary elections in december. and with the parliamentary elections coming i like to ask russian citizens to support the united russia party with. recent constitutional amendments have extended the presidential term from four to six years which means that if prime minister putin is elected president in two thousand and twelve he could be in office until twenty twenty four back to you

peter thank you very much for that marshall first i'd like to go to jonathan any surprises for you mr be very busy indorsed prime minister putin to succeed him. there's no surprise at all it was always assumed that this would happen and i think it is actually confirmed that this was the plan already from a long time back i think the disappointment will be with richard video because he had shown in the last few months that he was actually rather enjoying being president and still hoped that there might be some change of plan. sergeant he could carry on as president well that's obviously not going to happen well. adrian about that well it will he come prime minister so continuity continuity in a lot more continuity than well that sounds like a nice idea but politics doesn't quite work like this this is about legitimacy and credibility and i don't think by just changing positions they're rooting tandem can preserve their supporters already crumbling and they need to do more than just swap

jobs well i mean support is a support for whom for a united russia or for. well for united said russia as a party but also from modernization and there is clear desire for the job but implementation has been extremely slow and only very partial so the question is will president hu's in the future president putin gave the government any real power to implement policies that stamp out corruption it's not looking like that ok fred. you're we talked earlier you're not surprised at all that you think this was more about the parliamentary election this is that the timing of it all because we all knew and well i guess i started out the program this was a parlor game everybody's been talking about it for months but it you know the the united russia party is low in the polls are not a size it used to be and they need a superstar to come out in and really inflate their numbers because going into the election in december they don't have the same kind of straight that they used to i i frankly don't know why they decided to do this now the script to put in your

usually had announcing the president after the elections after they've got some signals because the system as it's constructed right now doesn't give a lot of signals from below i mean reliable signals that the people higher up can understand. so i guess it's clear it is clear to everybody that united russia is the i'm in trouble politically it's you don't have to go very far to hear people speaking in awfully cynical tones about the party and frankly the system that it dominates represents there is a clear palpable disaffection creeping in it's not rebellious. it's not really loud people are ready to go into the streets but the tone is really different than it was in the last election cycle and probably this has been picked up they feel like they need to do some more intense stagecraft maybe for

the elections but but frankly. i think that when we. it's not that you know rush we do more lections i think the number to watch is voter turnout yes they have said in the past that probably the biggest fear would be mr apathy there jonathan if i can go back to you i mean i can see that the some of the questions that. i could see coming from all of you on the panel here but the fact of the matter is mr putin is genuinely very popular in russia and going through some of the levada opinion polls which are considered the most reliable here he comes out consistently is the most popular by a long shot politician in this country well that's true and that's always been the case but i think the numbers have gone down a bit yes they have i think come back to the one of the points that fred made about why they're doing it now i think in a way of putting the sidestepping bar getting a meditative indorsed as the head of the ticket so that if in the december

elections the united russia party does much less well than before major forget the brainwork rather than putin's so he's trying to lift himself above the battle i think and in fact he may even be keeping in reserve the option if united russia does badly but everybody says it will still win and not even having a very different prime minister in future saying well he didn't do well enough in the election we'll have to find somebody else that's very interesting adrian good you want to jump in. well i think that's exactly right it is a master stroke by putin once again he's getting out of parliamentary politics just when it's getting difficult not just in terms of united russia but also in terms of the economy in society. ok it's apathy and if there's real votes you know this contend with the government pretty well ready to presidential candidate as well it's very interesting probably you know we again going back to a conversation we had earlier i mean coming back to the presidency right now when we look at international events going on i mean there's a political tsunami financial tsunami konami tsunami going on around the world and

here mr putin is going to come back into the fray i mean is it something that he thinks he feels it's necessary to do because that he has a trusted circle around him but he's built up over the years i mean it you know coming back into having the country in these times is that it's maybe a noble idea but it could be difficult as well i think that what we saw pretty clearly display at the united russia congress was. very much a prisoner of the system he built he did build it there are a lot of accomplishments to that system it restored stability in this country after a really disastrous decade. he brought in a semblance of law and order. and you know whether it was high oil prices or not he also found ways of redistributing income. creating infrastructure projects so a lot can be said for that decade and the stabilization that that brought in but he

also you know it is the nature of this kind of power system that you surround yourself with groups and supporters and and people who who do execute orders also have their piece of the pie and they depend on you it's personal relationships that kind of it's often called planned relations but they are biting importance in the sense that it's here right now i mean if it all we've heard today it is because if i go to jonathan here. mr putin was made it very clear that he wanted a mr mitt bit of come back as prime minister with a new team now maybe kind of reading the key. he leaves there mr me a bit of whole modernisation program will probably continue only as prime minister so some of the objectives that we saw that mr made better did a lot of people in the west had hoped for maybe maybe too much or because they prefer the softer touch of mr medvedev over mr putin but there is an obvious

indication that become tree has to continue modernizing it cannot continue with the same kind of political system and economic approach that it has had for the last decade well not amazing what i've heard in modernizing the political system there has been a version of the with governors the raising of the threshold where they're not on the sets it's not it's not i want to make it clear is that's a that's a that's a myth that actually they are confirmed through local committees in each region but i be a lot of people would say that that was necessary to keep the country together let's talk kartik part of the process of keeping the state sovereign what do you think about that adrian i mean if there is where is the next step here i mean or these are just treading water because well mr medvedev was talking about liberalizing the the political system or having more representative having parties more representative by lowering the election threshold do you think that's going to continue. well i think we have to wait and see brian rather

skeptical the trouble is that it's putin's policies for ten years or so have been entirely states he doesn't trust independent businesses and he doesn't trust civil society i think president did was trying to strengthen private business the rule of law and civil society but of course he had not enough room of maneuver you didn't have enough power to implement this and so i think we're heading back to state says the trouble is state capitalism doesn't work much better than free market capitalism well free market capitalism isn't doing very well in the west either later and i suppose it's going to be continued debate on how much role the state does play in here and there but there is there is there needs to be more competition here this is one of the reasons why they're having this privatization drive i don't know if it's going to be postponed now because of the turbulence outside but still breaking up some of the monopolies or this is still on schedule i suppose so but i think that modernization of the political system as jonathan said is a crucial thing you know democracy isn't just a pretty face it system ensuring that people who come up are have to have some

kind of public credit they have to be able to muscle their way into power so some legitimate system and we've seen this narrowed to such an extent that in the long run i think it's dysfunctional i don't want to say it's soviet light or something like that but if we're looking at twelve more years of this. this. ability can turn into real stagnation if you know you're going to get a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on russian politics today with r.t. . the faraway line. where human life is ruled by nature.

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a man to work with. i think for a long time this notion in america that bigger is better was simply an undisputed fact in the twenty first century smarter better general motors simply became too large for their own good and so many brands that we couldn't even keep up with they just basically became a dinosaur. i was like. is that. the. secret. welcome back across the computer with all to mind you were talking about the return of vladimir putin to the presidency. and say.

ok jonathan if i can start off with you again how do you think the international community is going to see this the return of a presidency because i said as i pointed out earlier in the program the west seemed to like a lighter touch of mr medvedev what do you think about that. well you know i think they will see this is basically continuity but i mean i think the disappointing thing really is that russia is still very reactive in its foreign policy i mean under yeltsin it was very much during the west's bidding and certainly under putin it's now become less predictable and more nationalistic and that's fine from the russian point of view but they're still negative i think on syria they're most sanctions on iran they're more sanctions but they're not really taking initiatives what do you do about iran what do you do about syria on the palestinian issue which is so topical this week why wasn't there russia didn't take a strong initiative and say they really support the palestinians and it's time to i

don't know jonathan the russians in place authority this how a skinny ends for twenty years in the new russia very very firmly mr medvedev even went to ramallah and said that he supports statehood that was a few months ago i would say russia's foreign policy is extremely you would face very very conservative now reactive what do you think about that do you think that the in the capitals of europe they're going to be happy to see mr putin that what you think about mr hope maybe i don't know for mr obama is going to be back in office but do you think. well very much doubt so because the lasting impression that putin gave when he was the last president was the security speech in munich in two thousand and seven when he was very blunt. not only. denounced american hegemony but also essentially brand of the rest of europe is pretty much useless so i don't know maybe that was a pretty good description i mean how things are played out right here i was the munich conference i remember it extremely well i'd like to point out to my viewers that it was it is it could be very well received here in russia is that russia will

have its own foreign policy and not kowtow to the united states in other powers of the united nations is the kind of reaction what you said earlier jonathan a lot of people in russia do not like how the libyan resolution was played out where you can just do whatever you want to abuse international law and still we saw a very strong strong support for the palestinians and if that irritates western powers and so be it that's russia's foreign policy what do you think i don't think they'll be any changes in russian foreign policy i think that there has been a continuous. growth in russia's self-confidence on the world stage. i think they could be more they could use the weight that they have got more coherently but i also don't think they'll be major problems with people accepting another point and presidency i think we more or less expected it all along and putin is predictable he's not a particularly capricious person or given to excesses he sticks to his script.

and that's awfully important in a system where so much power is invested in one personality important domestically to putin that he is this known quantity and a fairly predictable moderate sort of character. no i think i'm not sure that's true fred's going to be about yeah if you think about international trade oh you think about corporation would be you or even bilateral relations i mean. a lot of politicians don't just implement progressive policies i think can be problematic but it seems also you know more than the history and i don't think one could say they thoroughly predictable and reliable you know it well if you look at compare putin with medvedev i mean look at the ga ga ga's aggression against south of thirty i mean we still saw a lot of continuity in russian foreign policy putin would have done exactly the same thing as i go to you john and with him might have gone further. or that's

interesting i could let it go on there jonathan what do you think about it you think that. someone like mr saakashvili is going to be worried again because or we look at politics in ukraine i mean if if adrian is right which i disagree with very strongly i think there's been a continuity from putin through me believing we'll probably see it again also with putin because russia's national interest are change even if the president changed us. no i agree with that i think there will be many continuity in there i think russia's relations with georgia really present and i'm very committed clear majority of made it clear that as long as saakashvili is there still in charge in georgia there can be no real breakthrough and warming up of relations on ukraine of course since the injured power a year or so ago they're very happy with what's going on in ukraine that's not anymore new relative point the issue of ukraine joining the night and joining nato has been kicked right into the long grass it's must not going to happen soon fred what do you you wouldn't want to you know i just think the main thing that will happen is what the process and see happening in our brains right now is we're all

going to become a lot more cynical about the nature of the russian power system you know what we saw you know the russian congress was you know if everybody what do you well is this is i mean the popularity now i would i would get grant you i grant everyone on the panel is that there are two major political figures in this country ok like it or not that's what we've gotten and the constitution has not been circumvented i mean the man's name is going to be on the ballot and you know what most people are going to vote for him so i mean where do you where do you how do you balance cynicism the first popular spread first ok first guy hey so for the first peter i lived five years in the soviet union and i didn't see anything quite completely different. in in in this process really what we see is the ballot being narrowed real choices even if they're marginal and you don't have to vote real choices who are or are eliminated long before the ballots are printed and even that spectrum of

kind of what i call potemkin choices or are narrowing and this is not a good thing for the long term health of irrespective of what the population thinks of the electorate but i mean it's i'm sorry but that's the database sort of i'm sorry but it's the fact that right up until the collapse of the soviet union you can be nobody voted for going to budge off nobody voted for brezhnev label you a new a referee in the over here is i mean i don't want to get to and ok get a green go ahead jump in. well putin used to pride and self for having established a system that's stable and a constitution that's respected but now in a single move he's essentially undermined that by returning after four years if you were serious about continuity and stability he would have allowed president you'd have to run again and even if people say personnel there's not so much it's about the institutions now we have a president who's going to be leading the united party in the parliamentary elections this is not just throwing

a boundary this is now in fact to be undermining the institutions guaranteed by the constitution not necessarily by the other people and that's one of the you know for him to hedge on i think the other part of the extraordinary is that neither majority of the members of this party i mean yes you must start building up a multi-party system and that means people must stand as a representative of the party members over to meetings not just once every four years but all the time regularly try to build up mobilize you know just to be above the party is the old czarist model basically isn't it and unfortunately yeltsin do the same thing when he was there he always said oh i mean at the same time gentlemen maybe even you can agree or disagree for you should be part of the party but there is a multi-party system here i mean you can vote for the communist if you want to ok you can vote yes on the right is ok there is a choice of the guys the only that's the only party that's not depend on the kremlin the fact is all other parties depend in some ways on the kremlin and what you really need in addition to a multi-party system is strong institution across the country russia has

a strong central state and incredibly weak institutions in the rest of the country those need to be strengthened. here here's the thing about the last two years under a good bit of. introduced a different tone and sometimes even so little accused talking differently and that he gave rise to a lot of hopes and you know even in the bureaucracy and in academia camps for and over the last couple of years especially. even if it wasn't sure from the story. a lot of people took it seriously and started to express different opinions according to their vision of who these two guys were right or wrong and you saw that there was. there are not revolutionary not likable people in the street shouting i'm talking about within the mainstream of russian society there are different views of the way forward and the thing that has happened with the name of proof and being proposed and put forward is that that's mirrored back to one. and it's not

necessarily a bad thing as i said i don't think he was a bad leader he had a lot of accomplishments it's just another twelve years of him that gives this signal not only to some russians they say would like to ask all of you here as we wind up the program here first adrian do you think mr putin wants to come back or he has to come back because of the political environment that is so much attached associated with his time in politics once the comeback has to come i think. i think it's both because he's a prisoner of the system but he clearly also has not been able to distract himself and to make room for something else so he depends on the support of groups just as those groups that played on him as a novice a friend of your last word here no i don't know you know i as i said pointed to keep a bald guy and he also knows the problems of the country. is he if he gets another six year term and i think we know he will will he use that to make the change and

this is the basic point this country really needs some departure put in stability was fine it's. but people are getting impatient you know i hear it all around they want changes in must know that so you know even from within that system to encourage the growth of civil society to bring in some evolutionary democratic reforms and to make some economic changes this is within his power let's not let's not say he can't do it i suppose we have no choice but to wait and see that charges are due to be so big business thing we believe any this program you're going to have to wait and see many things to get to my guess in london cambridge and here in the studio and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are to see you next time and remember crosstalk.

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