they often go with headlines now. in northern cause as nato troops adopt a shoot to kill policy towards protesters demonstrating against the seizure of a disputed checkpoint. newspapers are already getting their teeth into the upcoming political challenges facing russia president medvedev says the popularity makes him the best candidate for the top job. one of the last strongholds of stands on the

brink of a human contest with civilians being driven out of their homes by fierce fighting. with me back in half an hour for you with more news here though it's our interview show spotlight with the topic today is how the revolutions throughout the middle east have shaped the international security landscape. twenty years ago the largest country in the system to a sense of. what had been you came. to teach began a journey. where did it take. you

. to. color again kind of welcome to sparta like the interview show on polish state going on in spain my guest is soon to be. the european economic turmoil has sent the global markets spiraling downwards and heads would say another recession may be just about to start precious face to financial curveballs food will start sliding in the ruble losing ground and yes the dollar and you get the first those insist it's all natural and there's no need to. sell is the second recession jeff a scary story or should we really worry about i'll say you're asking one of the most prominent brushwood columnist directors of the new comic school somebody who the. russian official say the national economy has almost recovered after the recent recession world prices are bouncing around

a relatively high price on the g.d.p. is growing again but the global markets are unstable and the fluctuations in the oil price a having enough match on the russian indices yet another challenge is the resignation of the highly respected finance minister aleksey kudrin he has been in charge of the country's fiscal policy for more than a decade and his departure is seen as a blow to russia's financial credibility. mr griffin welcome to the show thank you very much for having me thank you for being with us well first of all the latest political news is there is no main russian political intrigue i mean the intrigue of the. of the presidential elections in two thousand and twelve has been resolved well at least the candid from the ruling party is going to be glad and putting all this news this really influence the markets i mean seriously why does it mean that that that from the money point of view from the point of view of the economic financial games putin or

medvedev makes no big difference i think i think there is allusion of this question has not really calmed the markets there's not really a strong message for what when you're going to make policy will be because i think nobody. will continue and in the economy and become pretty like he used to be in the prime minister and in that sense been main question for the markets is what kind of economic policy he will be carrying out and for there we need to know the key government officials in his new government because there are something that we have not had any answer to yet so that's all we should wait for the government reshuffle that we may be facing we're led to the death instead of being president becomes the new young friend in this i would like to remind you that occasional governmental shuffle actually happens before the elections even before the problem meant any election so maybe

a better shot of actually happens before in december because what happened in two thousand and seven menzel government was. for a government downs of course was appointed and if you keep government ministers came in and they actually continued through the elections starting we will we know that one of the key figures and put in the government. to put it in who is finance minister and deputy prime minister. he lost his job recently. do you think that may be a sign of a future reshuffle in the government that has already started i think i think we know a bit called in will not be in the government well we don't know all well we don't know yet but it looks like he's not going to be in the government he said he doesn't want to be in the government however we don't know who is replacing him because the current replacement the aircon finance minister and consul apparently is that down put it in replacement so they'll be looking for a more politically connected. important people who will be actually around in this

very key ministry. is it true you should know in that room are there better couldn't didn't want to stay in the government because because he expected to become prime minister i think i think little more despair. possible to the nation but i think judging by added public statements both called integrated men before me and before calling was actually quite unhappy about the military spending program which was. and lauded by the president and good of president medvedev was correct saying that was prime minister putin by leaks in minister of finance i mean sequel didn't actually signed up and so endorse this program and they actually are signed on to this program but it is through that called in play this program and the video was the key person can push very formal photos was to get in on the eve of his resignation he said the following i quote the global economy is facing a decade of slow growth that will make it harder for countries to service debts

russia faces risks of a recession if the us and europe cantonese fall into recession and quote how probable is this negative recession and i think i think when we say slow economic growth it's actually a positive scenario when whether perhaps sorry because it was longer or the recession was when the politicians of such a scale says slow. on the growth he means doubtful yeah well maybe but i think i think i think if the politicians in europe and the us do their job very well still be are facing the beginning of slow economic growth simply because the vet over saw large they will have to cut expenses or raise taxes and at least in the short to medium run the growth will be slow but i think it is great in. the scope and this is a very enjoyable risk of a recession something like we had in two thousand and eight where a major financial institution collapses and there is

a financial panic which results in what's called liquidity squeeze and it's very hard to morrow and land and therefore and there is an implication for the real economy and the recession and there will of course mean a lot for a while because when people start thinking about the inverse the less in the riskier assets and russia is a risky company so they'll be withdrawal of capital from russia so in russia a financial crisis will be felt even given that we mentioned the united states the political debate in the united states over the dealing with the country's debt has almost brought the world to the verge of another global recession and here's a story that from spotlights he learned he made. it has become natural for the u.s. to live beyond its means the countries that he has been accumulating for decades reason and they're suing by congress it's been done almost every year since nine hundred sixty received you has known the finale to its new home of the teen

scenario this been given out for the sequel through which the us debt holders in suspense but one who seemed a little possibility that the republicans and democrats would come to new agreement and the games are a. real this is a whole who would style last minute doubts you didn't exactly true. now it can be a happy ending to this story. comes to reach standard and poor's downgraded the country's credit rating for the first time in its history. most wanted list we. the markets reacted with panic and just since the financial crisis three years ago . the graces you were sent out strong shock waves throughout the international markets including russia even though the situation you've been through this there's still the fear of the debt ceiling crisis beating and. the recession and that field

will only grow until i read it and long term solution to the debt problem is found in washington. well actually i go and share your. worries a bad bad bad about the dollar because i suspect that what happens in the states is more a game power game then real life though what's happening in europe may be more worrying because they're trying to end the problem you know do you agree i fully agree or i think i think you're right the sean clearly what he brought to us she mentioned that the u.s. was facing before actually this summer yes it was facing the risk of technical default and of course it was as you've been sort of again been sort of a game i think it was it was a big big negative surprise for everybody that u.s. politicians i reckon saw irresponsibly but yet i think we shouldn't really worried i think the new president clearly he is. in two thousand and twelve two thousand

and thirteen starts well probably two thousand and thirteen starts cutting the expenditures and raising taxes and bring in their cars and all of that probably before the election said well not really the new president you mean a bad one has no chance noid could be in your new democratic president obama but usually in a presidential democracy alegrijes in the beginning of a new presidential term the new president comes in and says i have some time let's do them so we do. i think the second to the first couple of years of the second term is that it is the time to do two to three exist. in europe you're absolutely right a bit politicians have lost credibility you mentioned could insane things which are probably more diplomatic i think in your of this game went too far and i think politicians have been slow in doing fully built a lead and i think there was a lot of credibility i think there are very high and i think we should only worry in bonn greece i think greece greece restructuring or defaults of any given think

we should worry about bigger countries such as spain and italy and eve. they can tag and from greece is not is not is not prevent them from spreading into spain and in poland and i think will will be facing a real problem i don't think it's to leave now i think there are still a number of pieces there can be done in europe but i think judging by previous acts of politicians we should be working human to new policy that we may expect from a new government in russia. putin i have a quote here also mentioned that the new government a quote will have to take unpopular steps to deal with the global financial turmoil end quote so putting the sword is i want i will not all know love that deep fried live through with you think you are going to think i'm part of the stands what does he mean by this and i think i think you mean something bad. has mentioned many times. you just called it americans living beyond their means and russians on

paper live within their means we do have a budget deficit but it's limited also have very little that we have an easy or fun but a business only because oil prices high and low price comes down russia suddenly will face the reality of russia's been living beyond its means and for example pension system is not balance over the next well the next ten. years or so russia needs to completely redesign inspection system and somehow somehow bring its house in order because what we are doing now is sustainable at one hundred twenty or one hundred forty dollars per barrel but it will not be sustainable if oil prices at eighty or so even sixty dollars per barrel so so good to have the new economic school spotlight you don't crudely we'll continue. to look at the problem from the group of five and say would.

very first verses of the bible says that all human beings are created but sentimental came in god's image and it doesn't say just jews or dodgers. sixty to seventy percent of what i did as a combat soldier in the occupied territories was a deal with the turks doing what we call making our presence felt to go out should somebody so they hear a knock on some doors run to the other corner and hit another house religion and nationalism not just judaism have been a part of the problem they've been part of what leads to. bloodshed a few more. guys and kill i fell in four hundred people in a month and you want to expect that this will have no effect until

a few you have to be either extremely naive or extremist and. you're a shill religious jew calling another joe a nazi not the way they really didn't amount to anything. welcome back to the spotlight on maldonado and i just a reminder that my guest in the studio today is sort of geek with the fracture of the new canonic school mystically if you just before the break you mentioned one

twenty five dollars per barrel as the oil price that is that is reasonable for russia well. as far as i remember a couple of years ago. the russian budget the budget of this country could be sustained at a price of around seventy to eighty dollars a barrel and we said well we have two hundred three hundred but we can survive it so now today we see one twenty five one thirty not less so there's a new mean we've increased the spending let it happen if it had been because the policy of mr quoted the finance minister to the government. or is that just objective reasons and i think. i think of the person responsible eventually of course for him and put him in his government his policy and i think even he wouldn't purpose. i think i think first because of the actions of a crisis but then i would put him clearly understands that his political support is

breached on the ability people raise material standards and even standards of russian population and if he spends more and more and you mentioned seventy dollars per barrel if we compare it to be said patiently the year two thousand and eight and one brother scott and their prices and i would remind you that before that year of say year two thousand and seven the russian budget would be a balance of fifty five dollars but i don't know the times where an oil price was there in the one percent. it was awful i remember times when we said thirty thirty's thirty were also one exactly and this is growth in just five four years from fifty five to one penny of shows the level of spain the impression government has to throw into the economy the government can point to russia's increasing spending as much as inclusions what are you spending what we're looking creasing the military budget we are increasing we are in all your military budget already over the next thing you do you would have said we shouldn't police military budget i would shouldn't even already increase in that we will increase even more if we

will and this is where minister called in is not is not happy about this policy we will spend on infrastructural pensions. by almost a factor of about one and a half we agree and we reached spinning on the police and they're there all all avenues of spain and voracity is actually spending more and more and more and part of that is because i think the haul on the call more the russian government is to sustain the popularity for all more spending more of. the finance minister the former finance minister he was labeled to be a liberal he characterized the liberal the liberal wing of the russian policymakers russian government. was is financial policy really liberal and are we facing the end of the liberal friends policy in which his financial policy will be. as conservative and responsible i'm going to leave it all because

it is not the job of finance minister to be liberal or not his job is to keep budget balanced or in surplus or no price hike to pay for a seat for going in the window and prices goes down and in that sense he did his job give his job especially we'll see five years ago through the crisis men in manpower after the crisis spending did not go down in the then why does everybody call it a liberal because he was very vocal in blood in this he was very critical of god of the stance and he eventually stared down which actually showed that he didn't like what was happening i think the liberal caller says should be done by somebody else and president william gave the speech in st petersburg in june which would be called a liberal speech where a president would have said state capitalism is not my approach my approach to spirit is asian nation improving investment climate decentralization of economic and political decisions purple be a liberal in

a liberal evolving you can move the tree budget of which president may dispose of the other day other facts could actually have solved all of the not only how we increasing how we increasingly would. but we are increasing the military budget we are not privatizing even though there's been a number of speeches and claiming support and also said i mean state capitalism but we only see the increase of the presence of the state in the economy we include and we see the increased spending by the government we seem pleased to galicians in and unfortunately we have not seen the new economic policy both men very different we can have been talking about someone is going to take a look at the running for more of their it's a good question that's a good question russia can borrow a lot but i think if the oil price goes down they're called happened because of a global recession and that's the situation you mentioned also kept an outflow of cattle exactly there will be the situation russia will or will not be able to borrow a lot simply because the investors will not like to countries like russia well.

we've been talking here for about fifteen minutes and i get the impression that we are. walking around the class a question which some call the guns versus better you do have is it true is it what brushes facing today guns or butter that's a good question i think i think we've gone through a little with the russian youths a lot of guns because i think nobody in their in their sober mind will see. peace in the threat from neda but that's another issue i think one issue years we need to leave within our means and europe and it's one of the then i was looking to the u.s. and even beyond our means now being financed by the standard and poor's the red and green and also the markets think russia should also understand that there is a difference though between the u.s. and russia and yes it has a modern pool climate science areas of service and government there flexible market

economy develop a national system so you believe beyond their means it's not a disaster russia doesn't have a currency like gold there and saw it russia runs out of cash well we've seen that happen in eight years russians think they've been done and then you have serious we've seen the benefits of the soviet union twenty years ago we've seen the default in russia in one thousand nine hundred bad meat actually happened in the russia if if if russia runs out of cash that may actually have a serious economic and political implications will russia have to worry he said russia can grow russia a lot so so i know a lot of specialists are watching our channel today need to do right now would be should they experience that this country would be as large as not gives you there is a global recession or even if they just are all pros goes down substantial and russia will have to borrow and in principle of russia has

a burial all debt compared to european or a new european country sort of the united states or japan a year. it's going to be here so i think russia will be able to worry just a little bit and that means the a lot of this grants spending a lot of military spending will have to be cut and i think this is exactly minister called it's war any. president will be a different prime minister but we can you can promise a lot but it is very unlikely that you will actually have to default on your promise and this is this this is something that happened twenty years ago in soviet union collapsed in military spending when danby fact of him are so simple because soviet union and russia question the people of these guns or rockets or whatever and that means what will happen in russian. president medvedev said that he will continue to work on his modernize and vicious modernization project even when he when he is no longer third because prime minister i'll be i'll continue the

modernization presently modernization projects are aimed as they say into the future but they cost a lot today. are they a significant spending in there in the russian budget how they could comparable to the military budget to put the pension and so on and of course not when you're talking about the president of it's favorite projects like scoll cover now that related projects there are not a bit of fun you could smaller actual the two order of magnitude smaller than the military program and in that sounds are pension pension spending these are completely different things this is not where the they will be saving money they will not be able to save a lot of money by cutting this project so i think i think most of the revenue sources will be poor it is asian and i think russian government will have to sell its crown jewels and it is very unfortunate their russian government has not done and reform and stock prices and oil prices were high unfortunately as it is very

unlikely that the russian government will sell the government seeks in ross near treaty because better bond. on wednesday it will prices law and therefore the market will not be a bit much for this essence but the russian government will happen over. the last twelve months since the autumn of the last year russia has been experiencing a capital flight amounting to about five percent of the g.d.p. what are the fundamental reasons for for the out of the world well i know you have already mentioned that people would not like to invest in this country but why why do russian capitalists move their own money away that's a very good question and i think it is a special strike and given that the outside world is not doing that well given the huge african interest for investment in russia japan but investment is actually the russian investment selves not invest in

a national but they've been mining our design of the guys who knew how to do business in because i'm sure they were born to build the language you know how how everything moves here compared to europe you know even we just mentioned europe and travel yes and travel and yet put out an investor to take money out why big problem because investment climate as an ordinary corruption is high but that is beside the scope of complex explanation is high and we don't nor what the economic policy of the new government will be for the understand the best the russian capital can do what i reckon is moving so you guys are going to watch when they move there will be a worry to the west they only have this saving their money they're not making a lot of money there they're making their money here in their own country there they just say these are so this has europe is you are becoming like a savings bank for the russian oligarchs not not not necessarily and it is some problems actually surprised us in europe a lot you can buy you can buy stock in europe for a fraction of what a word used to be and that. is there even before the market economic situation

is so bad i think when we're talking about investment i'll fly i think this will be indication that something is really wrong in iraq. in the quantum right now or in russia i would say that political risk and of course corruption and it's creation are issues that in a subset of most what about thank you thank you very much and just to remind that my guest on the show today was soon again rector called the new economic school spotlights what life would be back with more friends friends common song was going on in and outside russia until then it's the young art see him taking.