on the good. old. mission street. if you want. to. call. them welcome back here's a quick recap of the top stories here on our t.v. a deadly situation develops in northern kossovo was nato implements a shoot to kill order to break a roadblock built by local serbs near a disputed checkpoint the border crossing was seized two weeks ago by constant police sated by the alliance and since then clashes have left several serbs injured . people in tripoli take to the streets angry at the former rebels still carrying gods of the city holdouts us thousands flee one of the few remaining gadhafi

strongholds the city of syria it's facing a serious humanitarian crisis. and the operation occupy wall street is that inequality of corporate influence or grows in the u.s. as protests head into their third week and fury has turned towards the police following a series of arrests and allegations of brutal behavior. brings you up to date for now i'll be back with more and less of half an hour or less an r.t.s. or interview show spotlight with all good of and the topic today is how the revolutions throughout the middle east have reshaped the international security landscape that's coming up on our. twenty years ago in the largest country. to certain races of. what had been more each month each began the journey. where did it take.

color again the kind of welcome to spotlight the interview show on part state. and today my guest is city would be. the european economic turmoil the global markets spiraling down wars and experts say another recession may be just about to talk just face to financial for bills food with soft sliding in the ruble losing ground against the dollar and you get their shells insist it's all quite natural and there's no need to. sell is the second recession just a scary story or should we really have worry about our state we're asking one of

the most prominent russian economists threats to call the new comics cool something good. russian official say the national economy has almost recovered after the recent recession world prices are bouncing around a relatively high price on the g.d.p. these drone again but the global markets are unstable and the fluctuations in the oil price or having an effect on the russian indices yet another challenge is the resignation of the highly respected finance minister aleksey he has been in charge of the country's fiscal policy for more than a decade and his departure is seen as a blow to russia's financial credibility. mr grittier welcome to the show thank you very much for having me thank you for being with us well first of all the latest political news is there is that the main russian political intrigue in the intrigue of the. of the presidential elections in two thousand and twelve has been resolved well at least the candid from the ruling

party is going to be played and pretty well this news really influence the markets i mean seriously why does it mean that that that from the money point of view from the point of view of the economic financial games they're put in or medvedev makes no big difference i think i think there is a little of this question has not really calmed the market because not really a strong manager would mean you cannot make policy will be because nobody really have any bells they're going to put in will continue around you in the economy here in the country like he used to be in their prime minister and event so the main question for the markets is what kind of economic policy he will be carrying out and for there when you pull nor the key government officials in his new government and business and that is something that we have not had any answer to yet so so we should wait for the government reshuffle that we may be facing when medvedev

instead of being president becomes the new young friend and so i would like to remind you that occasional in government shuffle actually happens before the elections are going to be called a problem mentally ill action so maybe a bit of chappell actually happened before in december this is what happened in two thousand and seven when the government was from. the government's downs of course was appointed and if you keep government ministers came in and they actually continued through the election season be it's already starting we will we know that one of the key figures and put in is the government minister could anyone who's finance minister and deputy prime minister. he lost his job recently and do you think that maybe a sign of a future reshuffle in the government has already started i think i think we know that called in will not be in the government but we don't know all that well we don't know yet but it looks like he's not going to be the government he said he doesn't want to be in the government however we don't know who's replacing him

because the current replacement the act in finance minister and consul apparently is a replacement so they will be looking for a more politically connected. important people or who will be actually around in this very key ministry. is it true you should know that rumor there that couldn't get all of the government because because he expected to become prime minister i think i think little more of their being this is plausible to punish him but i think joe can go out of public statements both called in a new video from him before me and before whom was actually quite a. military spending program which was really and lauded by the president and did present a video was correct saying there was no you said putin and i looked him in sort of finance and sequel didn't actually signed up in the us this program and they actually signed on for this program but yet it is still there called in game play this program and video was looking person to push for reform and for those who used

to could in on the eve of his resignation he said the following i quote the global economy is facing a decade of slow growth that will make it harder for countries to service debts russia faces risks of a recession if the us and europe economies fall into recession and how probable is this negative recession so now i think i think when we see a slow economic growth it's actually a positive sign or. whether perhaps sorry for this longer or the recession worse will the politicians of such a scale says slow. army growth he means doubtful yeah well maybe but i think i think i think if the politicians in europe and the us go their job very well still be a decade of slow economic growth simply because we've built over a country so large they will have to cut expenses raise taxes and at least in the

short to medium run the growth will be slow but i think cauldron is great in. it and this is a very tangible risk of a recession some people like we had in two thousand and eight were a major financial institution collapses and there is a financial panic which results in what's called liquidity squeeze and it's very hard to war on land and therefore and there is an implication for video economy and the recession and there people of course mean a lot for our show because when people start thinking about a trade to invest less in the risky assets in russia at least in country so they'll be a withdrawal of capital from russia so in russia financial crisis will be felt even even well we're going to do that in states the political debate in the united states over dealing with the country's debt has almost brought the world to the verge of another global recession and here's a story on that from spotlights healin that he made. it has become

natural for the u.s. to move beyond its means the countries that he has been accumulating for their region and they are suing by congress it's been done almost every year since nine hundred sixty precede you has none from now until this year how soon are you this been given up for the sequel. which you was that holders in suspense at one point this seemed a little possibility that the republicans and democrats would come to an agreement and the dangerous and peed. style. you didn't exactly cure. to be here and to the school three days after standard and poor's downgraded the country's credit rating for the first time in its history the most wanted list. could with panic and the sharpest fall since the financial graces. the crisis you were sent out strong shock waves

throughout the international markets including russia even though the situation even for the stabilized there's still the fear of the debt ceiling crisis beating and it was back into recession and that's. until a radical and long term solution to the debt problem is found in washington. well actually i don't share your lenders worries a bad bad bad about the dollar because because i suspect that what happens in the states is more a game power game then real life though what's happening in europe may be more worrying because they're trying to and the problem here do you agree i fully agree here i think i think you're right really what. chain mention. u.s. was facing default actually did somebody else was facing the risk of technical default and of course it was as you very sort of again sort of again i think it was

it was a big big negative surprise for everybody but u.s. politicians i reckon saw the responsibly but yet i think we shouldn't really warning i came to new president clearly he is she is in two thousand and twelve thousand and thirteen starts now probably two thousand and thirteen starts cutting the expenditures and raising taxes bringing in their cars and holding her probably before the election so it will not really help when you present human above of those who chose noid could be in your new democratic president can be a bummer but usually in a presidential democracy. in the beginning of a new presidential term the new president comes in and says they have some time. i think the second to the first couple of years of the second term is that it is the time to do to do to exist. in europe you're absolutely right politicians have lost credibility you mentioned could have been seen things which are probably more diplomatic i think in europe this game went through far and if politicians have been slow and doing too little too late and i think there was

a lot of credibility i think there disks are very high and i think we should only worry about greece i think greece greece restructuring or defaults of any given think we should worry by bigger countries such as spain and italy and eve. they can tag and from greece is not is not is not prevent him from spirit in for spain and italy and then i think we'll will be facing a real problem i don't think it's to leave now i think there are still a number of things that can be done in europe but i think judging by previous acts of politicians we should be working you mentioned new economic policy that we may expect from the new government in russia. putin i have a quote here also mentioned that the new government a quote will have to take unpopular steps to deal with the global financial tormato . so poisonous what is i what i will not all no longer be proud living with you

think you are going to take part in the stands what does he mean by this and i think i think he means something that means the cauldron has mentioned many times. you just called it americans living beyond our means russians on paper live within their means we do have a budget deficit but it's limited also have very little that we have an easy or fun but this is only because oil prices high and low price comes down russia suddenly will face video russia has been living beyond its means and for example pension system is not balanced saw over the next over the next ten. in years or so russia needs to do a completely redesign inspection system and somehow bring its house in order because what we are doing now is sustainable one hundred twenty or one hundred forty dollars per pearl but it will not be sustainable if oil prices are eighty or even sixty dollars per barrel so. after all of the new economics of the spotlight

we don't truly will continue. to look at the problem from all pipelines and say with. very first verses of the bible that all human beings are created to sell a middle came in god's image and it doesn't save just jews or not it is. sixty to seventy percent of what i did as a combat soldier not to buy territories was a do with the turds doing what we call making our presence felt we go out should some bozo they hear a knock on some doors run to the other corner if they don't know the house religion and nationalism not just judaism have been a part of the problem they've been part of what leads to. bloodshed

if you want to bomb guys and kill. a thousand four hundred people in a month and you want to expect that this will have no effect they're going to feel you have to be either extremely naive or extremely stupid the nazis didn't hear of your religious jew calling another jew and not to you not the way they really did nothing nothing or anything. even the books that fisk should let on the sacred. tragedy is the essence of life. whether it is a put east press. or a shamanistic mccue. crossroads of two hundred legions. safe and strong and spirit is hot. and.

welcome back to the spotlight on maldonado and i just a reminder that my guest in the studio today is city grief rector of the new economic school mr goody if you just before the break you mentioned one twenty five dollars per barrel as the oil price. that is that is reasonable for russia well. as far as i remember a couple of years ago the russian budget the budget of this country could be sustained at a price of around seventy to eighty dollars per barrel and we said well we have two hundred three hundred but we can survive and so now today we see you want twenty five one thirty not less so there's me you mean we've increased the spending and it happened it happened because the policy of mr cortlandt the finance minister the government put in. or is it just have kept the reasons i think. i think of

the person responsible eventually is of course not even put him bassists his government his policies and i think even the purpose. i think i think for us that was a reaction to the crisis but ben. clearly understands that his political support is based on their ability poor to raise material standards and even standards of russian population and if you look it spends more and more and you mentioned seventy dollars per barrel if we compare it to disappear until the year two thousand and eight lehman brothers collapse and their prices and i would remind you that before that year of say year two thousand and seven the russian budget would be a balance of fifty five dollars and i don't know the times were no greater there were . ten was awful i remember times when we said thirty thirty's thirty were also right exactly and this is growth in just four years from fifty five to one twenty five shows the level of spain the impression government has not drawn into

the economy of government can point to choose increasing spending as much as inclusions what it means spending what we're looking creasing the mood for going to we are in periods and we are in what is a military budget already. said we shouldn't police military budget we should increase even more it increased in that we will increase even more if we will and this is where minister called. is not is not happy about this policy we will spend on infrastructural pensions. by almost a factor of one and a half we agree and we released spending on the police and they're there all all avenues of spain in varanasi is actually spending more and more and more and part of their days because i think the call on the whole more the russian government is to sustain the popularly control more especially. the finance minister the former finance minister he was labeled to be a liberal he characterized the liberal the liberal wing of the russian

policymakers russian government. was his financial policy really liberal and are we facing the end of the liberal fight in spite of seem to show his financial policy will be. as conservative and sponsible rather than liberal because it is not the job of finance minister to believe it or not his job is to keep budget balanced or in surplus for no price as high two people say for the range of the when the price goes down and in that sense he did his job and give his job especially we'll see five years to go through the crisis minimum and power after the crisis spain you give not go down in the then why does everybody call it a liberal because he was very vocal in this he was very critical of this transcend he eventually step down which actually showed that he didn't like what what's

happening i think the liberal politician would be done by somebody else and president didn't give the speech in st petersburg in june which could be called a liberal speech where present it is said state capitalism is not my approach my approach is put it is asian nation improving investment climate decentralization of economic and political decisions there will be a liberal in the liberal on moving to the military budget of which presently led to this. oh the other day i don't get sacked absolutely i'm sold on i don't know how we increasing are we increasing the will to get we're increasing the military budget we are not privatizing even though there's been a number of speeches and prime minister putin also said i'm a good state capitalism but we only see the increase of the presence of the state in the economy and we include receiving could be used sparingly and by big government and he seemed pleased to figure lesions in and out unfortunately we've not seen the new economy policy board member different we can have been talking about some. of the money for more of the it's a good question it's

a good question russia can borrow a lot but i think if the oil price goes down and therefore happened because of global recession and that's the situation you mentioned the arsenal kept cloth level exactly there will be the c.p.a. sure russia will or will not be able to borrow a lot simply because the investors will not like the indian poor countries like russia well. we've been talking here now for about fifteen minutes and i get the impression that we are. walking around the classic question which some called guns versus butter you do have is it true is it would russians facing today guns or goats or that's a good question i think i think we've gone through the normal with a rush i mean a lot of guns because i think nor by the. end there are sober mind would see. his face in the threat from nida but that's another issue i think one issue here is

when you believe within our means and your responded piano was spoken by b.s. and even beyond their means you know being financed by the standard and poor is a rare breed in and also the markets think russia should also understand that there is a difference though between the us and russia yes it has a modern pull climate scientists of service and government flexible market economy developed financial system so if you leave beyond their means it's not a disaster russia doesn't have a currency like gold there and saw it russia runs out of care well we've seen that happen in the eight years russian think they've been done and they have serious we've seen the benefits of the soviet union twenty years ago we've seen the default in russia in many their meat actually happen in the russia if if if russia runs out of cash that may actually have a serious economic and political implications but will russia have to do said russia can russia can borrow a lot so i know

a lot of specialists are watching our channel today may need to do right now would be should they expect this country would be borrowing money so as long as it's not if there is a global recession or even if they just all pros it goes down substantially and russia will have to borrow and in principle that has a very low debt burden compared to european or a new european country sort of the united states or japan yet. it's going to be here and i think russia will be able to borrow just a little bit and that means the lot of this grants spend a lot of military spending will have to be cut and i think this is exactly minister called it's warning of a coup president may be a different means that we can you can promise a lot but it is very likely that you will actually have to default on your promise and this is this this is something that happened twenty years ago in soviet union collapsed in military spending went down big factor of ten or so simply because

soviet union and russia didn't have cash to pay for these guns or rocket sort of approach and that me well happened in russian. president medvedev said that he will continue to work on his modern ambitious no no sation prizing even if when he when he is no longer code becomes prime minister i'll be i'll continue the modernization currently this modernization projects are aimed as they say into the future but they cost a lot today. are they a significant spending in the in the russian budget how they could comparable to the military budget to put the pension and so on of course not to when you're talking about the president of a of speed very projects close call cover now don't you later projects there are not a lot of money because smaller actually to order of magnitude smaller than the military program and in that sense are pension pension spending this are a completely different thing and this is not whether they will be saving money you

know they will not be able to save a lot of minute by cutting this project so i think i think most of the having a source will group it is reaching and i think russian government will have to sell its ground balls and it is very unfortunate that russian government has not done and before been stock prices and oil prices were high unfortunately as it is very likely that the russian government will sell the government seeks in ross near treaty because barebone. spot on when the oil prices law and therefore the market will not be there for this essence but the russian government will happen over. the last twelve months since the order to move to russia has been experiencing a capital flight announcing to about five percent of the g.d.p. what are the fundamental reasons for for the outflow of the world well i know your goal when you mentioned that people would not like to invest in this country but

why why do russian capitalists move their own money away that's a very good question and i think it is a special strike and given that the outside wall is not doing that well and given the huge uprooting just for investment in the national investment is actually the russian investor themselves not to invest in a national but big data mining our design of the guys who knew how to do business or because i'm sure they were born even though the land will tell you know how and how everything moves here compared to europe no reason we just mentioned europe and trouble us and problem here put out an investor to take money out why big problem because investment climate doesn't want to grow corruption is high political it is society's coffers critics and it's high and we don't know or what the economic policy of the new government will be as for the understand the best the russian carefulness can do whatever action including so you guys are going to manage when they move their money away to the west they only have this saving their money they're not making a lot of money they're making their money here in their own country they're just

sitting so so these as your as you are becoming like a savings bank for the russian oligarchs is not not not necessarily and it is some problems actually surprised us in europe a lot you can buy you can buy stock in europe for a fraction of what what used to be an investor. is there even before the market economy sufficient is so bad i think when we're talking about investment health loitering this is be indication that something is really wrong in iraq. in economy right now or in russian politics i would say that political risk and of course corruption and it's preparation are issues that unless of some last warning about thank you thank you very much for just a reminder that my guest on the show today was so again we've read through all the new economic school spotlights what life would be back with more french than drama and song was going on in and outside russia until then stay on art see take a. look.