the police following a series of arrests of allegations of brutal behavior. brings you up to date for now i'll be back with more and less of half an hour all next on our t.v. it's our interview show spotlight with al good of and the topic today is how the revolutions throughout the middle east have reshaped the international security landscape that's coming up on our to. twenty years ago the largest country in the. disintegration of the. fleet which had been chained. to the beach began a journey. where did it take them.

again and welcome to. the show on parts. and today my guest is. the european economic turmoil the global markets spiraling down wars and experts say another recession may be just about. face to financial turbulence food sliding in the ruble losing ground against the dollar and you officials insist it's all natural and there's no need to do. so is the second recession jeff a scary story or should we really want. to ask one of the most prominent brushwood . of the new comic school. russian officials say the national economy has almost recovered after the recent recession well prices are bouncing around a relatively high price on the g.d.p. is growing again but the global markets are unstable and the fluctuations in the

prize a having an effect on the russian indices yet another challenge is the resignation of the highly respected finance minister. he has been in charge of the country's fiscal policy for more than a decade and his departure is seen as a blow to russia's financial credibility. mr greer for welcome to the show thank you very much for having me thank you for being with us well first of all the latest political news is there is that the main russian political intrigue the intrigue of the. of the presidential elections in two thousand and twelve has been resolved well at least the candid from the ruling party is going to be played and reputed well this news didn't really influence the markets i mean seriously why does it mean that that that from the money point of view from the point of the of of of the economic financial games putin or medvedev

makes no big difference i think i think there is a lesson of this question has not really calmed the market has not really a strong message here what then you can to make policy will be because i think nobody really have any doubts that what you are putting will continue and in the economy in the country like he used to be in the prime minister and in that sense the main question for the markets is what kind of economic policy he will be carrying out and for there we need to know big government officials in his new government and there are something that we have not had any answer to yet so soon so we should wait for that government reshuffle that we may be facing when medvedev instead of being president becomes the new young prime minister i would like to remind you that occasionally the government or shuffle actually happens before the elections even before the parliamentary election so maybe the shuffle actually happens before december because what happened in two thousand and seven government

was for. governments that downs of course was appointed and if you keep government ministers came in and they actually continued through the elections years maybe it's already starting we will we know there that one of the key figures and put in the government minister could in whose finance minister and deputy prime minister. he lost his job recently and do you think that may be a sign of a future reshuffle in the government the has already started i think i think we know that cauldron will not be in the government well we don't know all well we don't know yet but it looks like he's not going to be in the government he said he doesn't want to be in the government however we don't know who is replacing him because the current replacement the acting finance minister under apparently is a temporary replacement so they will be looking for a more politically connected politically important figure who will be actually around in this very key ministry. is it true you should know that rumor there that

couldn't didn't want to stay in the government because because he expected to become prime minister i think i think that almost there now nothing this is plausible explanation but i think judging by their public statements both called innovative men before me and before calling was actually quite unhappy by the military spending program which was mainly and lobbied by the president in bed of president medvedev was correct saying that both prime minister putin and leagues him in sort of finance and it's equal that it actually signed up in doris this program and they actually signed on to this program but yet it is true that called in the employ of this program and invaded was the key person to push for a former finance minister called in on the eve of his resignation he said the following i quote the global economy is facing a decade of slow growth that will make it harder for countries to service debts russia faces risks of

a recession if the us and europe economies fall into recession and quote how probable is this negative recession scenario i think i think when we say slow economic growth is actually a positive scenario. whether perhaps sorry that it was a slogan or the recession was well a politician of such a scale says slow. on the growth he means doubtful you know maybe i think i think i think if the politicians in europe and the us do their job very well still we are facing the decay of slow economic growth simply because they bet over can fix all arch they will have to cut expenses raise taxes and at least in the short to medium run the growth will be slow but i think a cauldron is right in. if you're into a risk of this is a very tangible risk of a recession something like we had in two thousand and eight where major financial institution collapses and there is a financial panic which results in what's called

a liquidity squeeze and it's very hard to morrow inland and therefore there is an implication for the real economy and the recession and that will of course mean a lot for us because when people start thinking about to be a six they try to develop invest less in the risky assets and russia is a risky company so they'll be a withdrawal of capital from russia and so in russia financial crisis will be felt even in even that well we mentioned united states the political debate in the united states over dealing with the country's debt has almost brought the world to the verge of another global recession and here's a story on that from spotlight healing energy mean that. it has become natural for the u.s. to live beyond its means the countries that he has been accumulating for decades the reason of the debt ceiling by congress it's been done almost every year since nine hundred sixty the procedure has none from ality this year how would. you

this been given up for the sequel to politico through which the u.s. debt holders in suspense at one point there seemed little possibility that the republicans and democrats would come to an agreement and the danger of. real is just a little hole that would style last minute debt ceiling do you didn't exactly turn . now to be a happy ending to this school three days after its standard and poor's downgraded the country's credit rating for the first time in its history the u. west almost one hundred weeks three days the markets reacted with panic and the sharpest since the financial crisis three years ago. the crisis in the you were sent out strong shock waves throughout the international markets including russia even though the situation eventually stabilized there's still the feel of the debt ceiling crisis beating and we can always go back into recession and that feel will

only grow until i read the call and long term solution to the debt problem is found in washington. well actually i don't share your learning the. worries the bad bad bad about the dollar because because i suspect that what happens in the states is more a game power game then real life though what's happening in europe may be more worrying because they're trying to hide the problem you know do you agree i fully agree i think i think you're right the show really warty by the u.s. she mentioned that the u.s. was facing default actually that somebody else was facing the risk of technical default and of course it was as you very sort of again been sort of a game i think it was it was a big big negative surprise for everybody that u.s. politicians are acting saw irresponsibly but yet i think was shown to be rewarding i think the new president clear he is or she is in two thousand and twelve two thousand and thirteen starts well probably two thousand and thirteen starts cutting

the expenditures and raising taxes and bring in their cars and all of their probably before the election so it will not really help when you present you mean about it has no chance no it could be in your new democratic president obama but usually in a presidential democracy like the us in the beginning of a new presidential term the new president comes in and says i have some time let's do them for you. i think the second term of the first couple of years of the second term is that it is the time to do to do to exist. in europe you're absolutely right the politicians have lost credibility you mentioned could have been seen things which are probably more diplomatic i think in europe this game went too far and i think politicians have been slow in doing too little too late and i think they've lost a lot of credibility i think there are risks are very high and i think we shouldn't only would involve greece i think greece greece destruction in a default solid any given think we should worry about bigger countries such as spain and italy and eve. they can tag and from greece is not is not is not

prevent them from spreading to spain and italy and then i think will will be facing the real problem i don't think it's too late now i think there are still a number of things there can be done in europe but i think judging by previous acts of politicians we should be worried human to new economic policy that we may expect from a new government in russia. putin i have a quote here also mentioned that the new government a quote will have to take unpopular steps to deal with the global financial tormato end quote so said so put into storage and i will i will not all know love the deep fried little bit here you think your premise is that we'll have to take the popular steps what does he mean by this and i think i think you mean something that. has mentioned many times. you just called it americans living beyond their means to

russians on paper and live within their means we do have a budget deficit but it's limited to also have very little of that and we have an easier fund but this is only because oil prices high and no price comes down russia suddenly will face the reality that russia's been living beyond its means and for example pension system is not balanced over the next over the next ten. years or so russian utility companies that he designed it's pension system. somehow bring its house in order because what we are doing now is sustainable at one hundred twenty or one hundred forty dollars a barrel but it will not be sustainable if oil prices are even sixty dollars a bottle so. the new economic school spotlight surely will continue to talk about the possible problems that i say with the.

very first verses of the bible that all human beings are created but sentimental came in god's image and it doesn't say just jews or not under. sixty to seventy percent of what i did as a common soldier in the occupied territories was to do with the turds doing what we call making our presence felt to go out should somebody so they hear a knock on some doors run to the other corner and they don't know how religion and nationalism not just judaism have been a part of the problem they've been part of what leads to. bloodshed a few more. thousand four hundred people in a month and you want to expect that this will have no effect until the feet you have to be either extremely naive or extremely stupid. if you're

a religious jew calling another joe. the way they really did it. even the wrong stuff they say should land a sacred. baji is the essence of life. with. it is a produced credit. for shamanistic which. crossroads of religious. faith is strong spirit is. welcome back to spotlight on maldonado and i just threw mine into that my guest in the studio today is siggy goodie for actor of the new canonic school mr goody if

you just before the break you mentioned one twenty five dollars per barrel has the oil price that is that is reasonable for rush well. as far as i remember a couple of years ago the russian budget the budget of this country could be sustained at a price of around seventy to eighty dollars per barrel and we said well we have two hundred three hundred but we can survive it so now today we see one twenty five one thirty not less so does that mean mean we've increased the spending it happened it happened because the policy of mr couldn't the finance minister the government to put in medvedev or is it just objective reasons i think i think i think of the person responsible eventually of course not even to put him in recess his government his policy and i think even though he wouldn't purpose absolutely i think i think first it was a reaction to the crisis but then. clearly understands that his political support

is based on their ability to raise material standards and even standards of russian population and if needed he spends more and more and you mentioned seventy eight dollars per barrel if we compare today's situation to the year two thousand and eight lehman brothers collapse and that crisis and i would remind you that before that year say year two thousand. and the russian budget would be balanced at fifty five dollars for i don't know the times where no price. was awful but i remember times when we said thirty thirty's thirty one we will survive exactly and this is growth in just five four years from fifty five to one twenty five shows the level of spending impression government has to throw into the economy the government can point us to shoes and releasing spendings matches inclusions what are you spending what we're looking creasing the military budget we are increasing we are increasing military budget already. said we shouldn't crease treatments or

we should increase even more of the increase in that we will increase even more if we will and this is why mr calderon is not is not happy about this policy we will spend on infrastructural pensions. by almost a factor of one and a half we raced and we raised spending on the police and they're there all all avenues of spending very rushed is actually spending more and more and more and part of that is because i think the call on the call more the russian government is to sustain the popularity through more spending well. the finance minister the former finance minister he was labelled to be a liberal he characterized the liberal the liberal wing of the russian public policy makers russian government. was his financial policy really liberal and are we facing the end of the liberal finance policy in which his financial

policy will be rather characterized as conservative and responsible rather than liberal because it is not the job of finance minister to be liberal or not his job is to keep budget balanced or in surplus when no prices high to plead for say for the rain in the wind and prices goes down and in that sounds he'd give his job he did his job. paschal it will see five years to go through the crisis menu manpower after the crisis spending did not go down in the then why does everybody call it a liberal because he was very vocal in this he was very critical of all these strands and he eventually stepped down which actually showed that he didn't like what what's happening i think the liberal policy should be done by somebody else and president reagan gave the speech in st petersburg in june which could be called a liberal speech where president would have said state capitalism is not my approach my approach is but it is ation need a galatians improving investment climate decentralization of economic and political

decisions that will be a liberal in the liberal wing of the military budget of which president may dispose of the other day of the exact arsenal of soldiers there was only really how we increasing how we increasingly will too but we are increasing the military budget we are not privatizing even though there's been a number of speeches and prime minister putin also said i'm a good state capitalism but we only see the increase of the presence of the state in the economy we include receiving could be used by the government we see increased regulation and in that sense unfortunately we have not seen the new economic policy both men of a different putin have been talking about some way to go to the moon to get the money for more of their it's a good question that's a good question russia can borrow a lot but i think if oil price goes down there what happens because of a global recession and that's the situation you mentioned the outflow of capped an outflow of cattle exactly there will be the situation russia will and will not be able to borrow a lot simply because the investors will not like the indian to countries like

russia well. we've been talking here now for about fifteen minutes and i get the impression that we are. walking around the classic question which some called guns versus butter you do have is it true is it would rush is facing today guns or butter that's a good question i think i think we don't really know whether russia needs a lot of guns because i think nobody in their in their sober mind would see that. russia's face in the threat from neda but that's another issue i think one issue is we need to leave within our means and your critics pond and t.v. and then we're stuck in the us leaving beyond their means now being financed by the standard and poor's there and downgrade in and also the markets think russia should also understand that there is a difference though between the u.s. and russia u.s.

has a more than two hundred science areas of service and government that flexible market economy develops financial system so if they live beyond their means it's not their disaster russia doesn't have a currency like the dollar and so if russia runs out of cash we've seen that happen in eight years i should say they mean done that and then we're going to see as we've seen the bankruptcy of the soviet union twenty years ago we've seen the default in russian and you need bear me actually happen in the russia if if if russia runs out of cash that may actually have a serious economic and political implications but will russia have to borrow who said russia can borrow russia can borrow a lot so so i know a lot of specialists are watching our channel today maybe right now how would they should they expect that this country would be borrowing money since the launch is not if there is a global recession or even if they just oil prices goes down substantially the

national have to borrow and in principle russia has a very low debt burden compared to european or a new european country sort of the united states or japan yet it. going to be a risky asset and i think russia will be able to borrow just a little bit and that means that it lot of this grants spend a lot of military spending will have to be cut and i think this is exactly minister called that it's warning. to the president in very different prime minister putin you can promise a lot but it is very unlikely that you will actually have to default on your promise and this is this this is something that happened twenty years ago in soviet union collapsed in military spending went down by a factor of ten or so simply because soviet union and then russia didn't have the cash to pay for these guns or rockets or whatever and that me well happened in russian. president medvedev said that he will continue to work on his modern ambitious modernization project even if when he when he is no longer protocols

prime minister i'll be i'll continue the modernization project that modernization projects are aimed as they say into the future but they cost a lot today. are they a significant spending in the russian budget how they could compete comparable to the military budget to put the pension budget and so on and of course not when you're talking about the present a very very projects like scoll cover and other related projects there are not a bit of money you could smaller actually toward the magnitude smaller than the military program and in that sounds are pension pension spending these are a completely different thing and this is where the they they will be saving money you know they will not be able to save a lot of money by cutting this project so i think i think most of the revenue sources will be privy to zeeshan and i think russian government will have to sell its crown jewels and it is very unfortunate that the russian government has not

done and before been stock prices and oil prices were high unfortunately as it is very likely that the russian government will sell the government stakes in rosner treaty because better bond. from when the oil prices law and therefore the market will not be that much for this assets but the russian government will have to look at well experts say that june the last twelve months since the autumn of last year russia has been experiencing a capital flight amounting to about five percent of the g.d.p. what are the fundamental reasons for for the outflow of capital work well i know you have already mentioned that people would not like to invest in this country but why why do russian capitalists move their own money away that's a very good question and i think it is especially striking given that the outside world is not doing that well and given the huge opportunities for investment in the russia the fact that investment is actually the russian investor themselves don't

invest in russia but they've got a mining elder sign other guys who know how to do business in because i'm sure they were born the in thing though the land we actually know how how everything moves here compared to europe you know even we just mentioned europe is on travel years of travel and yet the russian investors take money out why big probably because investment climate is more than great corruption is high political risk is high in scope as critics expropriation is high and we don't know or what the economic policy of the new government will be as far as i know this far as i understand the best the russian carefulness can do whatever russian is losing so you guys are going to march when they move their money away to the west they only do this saving their money they're not making a lot of money there they're making their money here in their own country there they just say these are so this has europe is you are becoming like a savings bank for the russian oligarchs not not not necessarily and maybe some troubles actually reduced crisis in europe a lot you can buy you can buy stock in europe for a fraction of what or what used to be and that. is there even though the market

economic situation is so bad i think when we're talking about investment outflow i think this is the indication that something is really wrong in russia. in economy right now or in russian politics i would say that political risk and of course corruption and it's appropriate are issues that in the subset of most wanted a bomb thank you thank you very much just to remind that my guest on the show today was so gay grebes rector of the new economic school spotlights wildlife who would be back with more friends than common song was going on in and outside russia until then stay on our sea to take care.

as long as a martini a deadly situation develops in border crosser both as nato implement a shoot to kill orders to the ball or throw blocks built by a local serbs here a disputed checkpoint. people living in tripoli take to the streets and heard former rebels clearly god save the city people is one of the few remaining gadhafi stronghold suffer from a deepening from that experience once. also operation occupy wall street grows in the us against all the real corporate influence while people's fear returns towards the police following a series of arrests and cases of little behavior. to the media makes its judge but all russia's political future in the wake of dmitri medvedev is interview over his decision not to seek a second term.