there's a council of the arab spring on. how again a welcome to spotlight they interview show our state. guest on the program is . israel says the unrest in the middle east didn't harm television but the arab spring has inspired many palestinians to step up the fight for independence and israel's closest neighbors syria and egypt are still in turkey so how does the jewish state cope with the revolutionary spirit within and outside its borders we're asking the former head of the israeli security council and senior research fellow at the institute for national security studies in which.

although the arab spring didn't affect israel directly it's complicated jerusalem's relations with its neighbors the former egyptian leader hosni mubarak was the jewish state's staunch ally for three decades but after he got overthrown a long simmering who's still a tear gassed israel has burst into the open. but israel shows he's ready to talk just days ago in jerusalem managed to bring back its soldier from the palestinian captivity in return for more than a thousand palestinian. thank you thank you very much for being with us well first of all i would like to ask you . about this exchange of more than a thousand palestinian prisoners for one captured israeli soldier. it's a controversial matter everybody welcomes it but some say it's a concession to hamas on the part of israel how would you comment on. well it was

a controversial matter and because this proposal of one prisoner for two for one thousand is president of course it has the interest consequences and we go to the future personally i think of that it was not a smart decision to agree to such a deal i think that we missed some better opportunities in the past five years but at least it shows the israeli public is extremely concerned about every specific person and especially about the person that as a uniform and it was sent by the country to defend the state and the country shows that we are ready to do almost anything in order to save him. and but it might have some dangerous consequences that's why i think that in the long term it was not necessarily a very small decision let's take a look at one of the largest prisoner exchange deals in the middle east history spotlights in the media reports of. gilad shalit and this really soldier was

captured inside he's country by hamas militants more than five years ago he was kept toasted you know gaza in exchange for his release and was demanding the release of one thousand palestinians serving prison sentences and these are the negotiations lingered as the two sides used mediators to broker the deal finally on the eighteenth of october show it was released on his first interview he said he hopes the deal would help peace between israel and palestine i went with the exchange itself was not altogether peaceful this israeli soldiers and palestinians waiting to greet released prisoners clashed the west bank the swap of more than a thousand prisoners to one soldier remains a controversial issue for both sides the palestinians argue these really media and

soup. these rail over the world were much more preoccupied with the you watch you read and with the issue of more than seven thousand palestinian prisoners. terror attack victims in israel i shocked this isn't to release people who are responsible for the deaths only israeli civilians. if israel proved capable to negotiate this deal that we just heard about maybe it's time to continue negotiating with hamas to can the talks come hours. and the problem is not to negotiate with anyone the question is on what exactly you negotiate and israel i can tell you that israel is negotiating with hamas on a lot of political arrangements because hamas is controlling gaza which is in a way almost a state and we have a border with gaza so we have a sort of southern of the relationship we cannot speak with hamas about political

solution for the simple reason the comus is against any political solution and they clambered the only possible solution to the israeli palestinian conflict is the elimination of the state of israel so all those very little to discuss as long as this is the position. can you say can you predict what will be israel's reaction when the u.n. general assembly will sooner or later this will happen recognizes the state or the house. is all of this. as long as this is only a statement of the general assembly and he does not plan slated to protective action in the u.n. security council it has very little meanings and the basic approach is to try to ignore it and as long as the palestinians don't do anything provocative against the real israeli vital interest we are not going to respond but but i think that the countdown and start. dollar ready to two palace times membership for membership in

the u.n. agree that this will happen i think in our lifetime i don't know it depends very much not only on these early approach but also on the american the porch and the fortunately some of the european countries do understand that a solution to this will oppose them a conflict needs of the negotiations and not unilateral decision because this in the local decision by itself even if it is declination does not solve any of the problems and naturally isil is not going to be drawn from these areas we thought of that is the but secure security arrangements and i know that to such arrangements you have to negotiate if you don't negotiate we cannot take such measures or sale and when this when and if this recognition happens do you should we rather expect and you intifada on the west bank what would you say i don't think so and in the past feel you repeatedly said that they don't want to

support something like this for many reasons most palestinians who live in the west bank in joy to their better lives compared to what they had in the past and many of them are not going to socal fired for something that doesn't have a real prospect of success and i think that most of them understand the term loans that is a little cannot withdraw from unless there is a real good. i hope this beginning of record nation my purse where the palestinian the thirty two you read to go to negotiations with no preconditions amazingly this is where we are right now the israeli prime minister says and i'm not out of prison to give i'm not working for the government but he does say i'm ready to begin dating a goshen today with no preconditions well the palestinians say we're ready to negotiate but we do have to put conditions first for the set them in the deal with these and more important you have to declare in advance that you accept that the

borders will be a set of borders while the prime minister said this as to be negotiable or cannot agree in advance to make compromise for something that i don't know what i'm going to be given in the. well. let's change the subject the israelis this year have suddenly experienced a changed change of climate zone well at least you have been living in the so-called arab spring for the last well eight or nine even nine months. what has been arab spring arab summer now arab autumn and still it is the arab spring well what i want to ask. does it somehow change the position of israel in the region i mean the the events in around the country around israel unfortunately in the shoulder are no dumping this spring that seems to be much more like the winter is going to be something promising not only to us but also to the

people began distribution let's speak about egypt for a few seconds the people protested in the streets of cairo nine months ago they had a very clear expectations to see the removal of mubarak this is something simple number two to enjoy real freedom and real democracy and number three more important than anything else to enjoy better a lot better economy now what is the situation in egypt today the leader of egypt is the former defense minister of mubarak so in a way this is the same system. not much more freedom is going to be given there is going to be an election to the parliament in which the islamic movement the muslim brotherhood will take over. and almost it was going to be elected to be the president is probably going to fail because the economic situation in egypt is terrible in this is not going to be much better in the next five years so the people who expect to see

a dramatic economic change today might be very disappointed and if you ask me what is my prediction my prediction is that in a year or two there will be in the wave of them on a station that will reflect the for. station of the people and that is you all are all around the region because specifically in egypt and then when this kind of for another the demonstrations begin the muslim brotherhoods will come to the people and after being at the probably the biggest party in the parliament there was said to the egyptian people we told you there is only one solution to your problem and this is islam so my turn to be a very slow mixtape with all the consequences not only in regard to israel but also in regard to the young educated secular people of egypt will began this but i it's incredible i would say that not really islam is the solution to the economic problems of these years but but returning hundreds of thousands of people to hard

work instead of demonstrating i think this is the main so i'm not saying that there is that as a but i'm saying that this is what the birth of the muslim brothers this is what we were there to tell that this is wrong isn't it i suppose it is wrong but we had a very similar experience in iran only thirty two years ago very similar situation there was a corruptive leader the people hated him they began a real democratic process. even chose a prime minister but but the muslims were much more organized. in the way to overall so we can see today in iran that those people who really wanted the change thirty two's to go are now left with a very extreme islamic regime so sometimes sort of allusion begin in one direction but the outcome is very different says a lot of former head of the israeli security council and senior research fellow of the israeli institute for national security studies spotlight will be back shortly

after we take a break that stay with will continue condition. wealthy british scientists. market why not succumb to. find out what's really happening to the global economy with max cause or for a no holds barred look at the global financial headlines. as a report.

says. six. six six six. six . welcome back to spotlight algren live in just a reminder my guest on the show today is euro a land former head of the israeli security council and senior research fellow at the institute in israel institute for national security studies. mr l.

and we were talking about egypt about israeli relations with egypt but we saw a violent and israeli protest earlier this year we saw the israeli embassy in cairo in flames and well this was a very unfortunate thing for the relations between the two countries has this incident been settled by now are your lation any better i mean official relations between the two countries the current official relationship between the israeli government and the current egyptian government is pretty good both of us understand that we do share mutual interest to stabilize the situation we do understand some of those sensitivities so as long as this kind of discussions continue there is little reason to be concerned as a said i'm not sure that this regime in egypt will be the regime able to use one mark and if that then many things might change in the middle east has the israeli

e.g. would border become more vulnerable what i want to ask is who was behind their acts of sabotage against his prime quite on the border lidia's any idea. it is very clear since this change in egypt with the risen decrease in the influence and the control of the egyptians police the egyptian security agencies it is all over egypt but the specifically in sinai which is not the most important area for egypt so this vacuum is used today by certain groups from commerce people in gaza to go to sinai to other people smuggle weapons from libya or from sudan or other places and then find it is a very. comfortable area to begin to conduct the ball. regions against these little we have to take certain measures that we did not take all the eels where we could more rely on the gyptian zz but i don't think that this by itself is of interest the project for does it does it worry does it bother israel that the bloke

aid of the gaza strip from the egyptian side was eased that there's never been a real blockade from the egyptian side in the past i would say five years says this will be brought from guys are huge quantities of weapons that have been smuggled from egypt to go within the gyptian and systems or without the egyptian assistance in the end of the day guys are become to be a very. that is armed with a very advanced weapons this is typical for that we face we face it in gaza we face a very similar situation visa v. lebannon will his belies a stronger bill fully isn't managed to create that louis ineffective determiners so for the time being the situation is under control now i like interviewing politicians from israel because they're pretty straightforward usually they're they're pretty frank in what they say can you tell me frankly what easier after

israel to deal with democratically elected governments in the neighboring country or to deal with predictable dictators that are unchangeable for decades. the best of course is to negotiate with a little democracy but for the time being we cannot see any real democracy in the region let's take syria for example those not secure the bashar assad is a one of our biggest enemies is supporting because a bailout is a good friend of you done and syria official is perceived to be an enemy of israel but to certain extent even managed to control the borders so the border between israel and syria is literally gun so it leads there is someone who is accountable if bashar assad goes to more and i think that he will go to more and from the moral point of view and think about the should go because it is doing unacceptable things freeze on people. can you tell me what will be the outcome the outcome could be very different it could be from any of the neon takeover of syria it could be the

muslim blood or was that the very strong in syria too will take over and will consist will construct let's say variant is a really a government or syria can. can be. divided into different areas and even the stability of the syria head in the past thirty or forty years will go so at least in the short run this kind of change create a lot of concerns and even if in the end of the day there will be a real democratic states in the arab world just as it has been that be a long day it will be a long day just as it happened in their western europe and then in eastern europe and then in south america it is a process that takes years and before we tip and so we have good reasons to be concerned because we live in this is a sense so as you said as you said for example of bashar as it should go but this is not in the immediate practical interest of your country now not saying that i

can tell you. a little secret that seventy years ago on the worst some ideas in these were to try to help those who wanted to move bashar assad and some of them serve worley is a very bad person why don't we support the removal of such a bad person and these early prime minister that i'm sure on the side that not only that it is not our business to interfere but he also said that he was not sure what is the real is really interest because we did none of know my to succeed but if he goes so fortunately we do have a lot of other problems fortunately we have the privilege of not being part of the game that is played around us we are not interfering in any place neither in egypt nor in syria and all in and other places hopefully that the. the end of the day there will be real democracies in this too in this company is something that i

cannot see in the near future mr ireland we saw washington pretty happy over the death of little khadafi was his death good news for for israel for officials are. the reason very little influence. of the situation in libya on any kind of easily interest so in this case we could observe the situation in libya from distance and i think the majority of the people in these little we're very happy with the end of gadhafi not because this is our winters but because it is it was a bad and cool person and hopefully it will bring a change a positive change to his own people so. you know the one i want to talk about your relations with turkey as we remember they were destroyed well if not destroyed but but but really much harmed by by the israelis raid against the the for the telly and the gaza for till you now do you think that israel is is trying to day

to to to really improve the relations with this country i think that is a list trying to do whatever we can in order to improve the relationship there was a can turkey a few days ago we've been over those systems that was rejected by the turks. this is not our decision mr. those successful domestically in turkey made a strategic decision to become to be the leader of this law make war that would please this sunni islamic world and in order to gain much more support in syria lebannon palestinian arena in egypt and elsewhere yes very much doubt it in tel aviv exactly the best and the most. i would say promising action that they can take is to be against israel because whenever you take actions against israel it increases your popularity and is ready to circle for the relationship with israel for something that for him is more important soviet union tried it in the

seventy's and it did work yes but it is different in the sense that even believes that it can be their leader that can take over the traditional with all of countries like egypt saudi arabia and others that some of the power of the militia and so you believe that it will be their real islam weekly bill and all the problems with the flotilla and others were only excuses that were used by him in no the to deter you are delusional a ship with israel because this is the. you mentioned you mentioned the transformation. the regime is after the revolution after the arab spring and you said that that maybe by the end of the day which will be a long day there may be real democracy but now they may go the other way not the way that the revolution was proclaiming in the slogans is that. theer are really and islam is ation of the region of radical islam coming to to

surround israel. now that this is a concern actually as two wings there is deal with onion ring which is most shearers ring and iran is trying to not only to be a little is a but also to export what they call the run of the evolution partially successful in lebannon lebanon is for all practical purposes is controlled by iran for its proxy crucible up and at the same time the muslim brother was in egypt in the some other companies are trying to create again a different but additional islamic movements. that can be moderate on one hand but can be much more extreme but when never is there is concern even moderate muslims are against islam so you cannot feel and the islamic leader no matter our more duties that can say simply that well as the right to exist as

a jewish state to additionally we live just lee you cannot accept it so islam is a sion of the middle east is bad for is a will and since we are looking at the we have good reasons to be concerned and you are really afraid of that i mean this is a threat to your country and military threat or for a threat to to to to the existence of your country or what or you just are concerned only are you afraid this is a difference here no wonder we are not afraid we must enough in our father problems in our puzzle we are not afraid but we are concerned but i will give you an example we do have a peace agreement with egypt this preserve game and give is a lot of benefits one of them it was an economic benefit because israel could decrease dramatically the size of the defense budget since the day that we signed a peace agreement with egypt so the size of the defense budget that was thirty percent of the g.d.p. only thirty five years ago now is only six percent and we could do it thanks to the good relationship with egypt if it changes who knows what will the consequences

thank you thank you very much for this interview and just to remind you that my guest on the show was your. former head israeli security council and now a senior research fellow at the israeli institute for national security standards and that's it for now for all of us if you want to have your stay with spotlight or if somebody's mind who you think i should interview next very good drop me a live album in our path party are you and let's keep the show interact but i will be back with more of a comment on what's going on here on out thank gosh until then they are our team and take.

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don't bring top fifty percent of greek debt has been announced and in the ninety's e.u. leaders summit in brussels on the eurozone crisis and also to get a further than one hundred billion euros from the euro zone an international monetary fund while the indians have a lot more chance just to be moment doubles to treatment on the roads. and they said oakland california used tear gas and bought some grounds to plan and they disperse peaceful until street protest is to take you need and hundred accidents one of the protesters to time the wrong for veterans called olson is a critical condition after being hit by something like this. and up next more details on the occupy wall street protests including an interview with a victim of pepper spray and tear gas after police crackdown with for some peaceful demonstrations going to show from our washington studios it's next.