amid the middle east turmoil. hello again to welcome to the spotlight they interview sheryl artsy. then today my guest on the program is. israel says the unrest in the middle east didn't harm tell over but the arab spring has inspired many palestinians to step up the fight for independence and israel's closest neighbors syria and egypt are still in turmoil so how does the jewish state cope with the revolution within and outside

its borders we're asking the former head of the israeli security council and senior research fellow at the institute for national security studies and. although the arab spring didn't affect israel directly it's complicated jerusalem's relations with its neighbors the former egyptian leader hosni mubarak was the jewish state's staunch ally for three decades but after he got overthrown a long simmering who's still a tear gassed israel has burst into the open. but israel shows he's ready to talk just days ago in jerusalem managed to bring back its soldier from the palestinian captivity in return for more than a thousand palestinian. police. thank you thank you very much for being with us well first of all i'd like to ask you about this exchange of more than a thousand palestinian prisoners for one captured israeli soldier. charlie.

it's a it's a controversial matter everybody welcome it but some say it's a concession to hamas on the part of israel how would you comment on it well it was a controversial matter because this proposal of one prisoner for two for one thousand is president of course it has the consequences and we go to the future personally i think about it it was not a smart decision to agree to such a deal i think that we missed some better approach in that this in the past five years but at least it shows that the israeli public is extremely concerned about every specific person and especially about the person that as a uniform and he was sent by the country to defend the state and the country shows that we are ready to do almost anything in order to save him. and but it

might have some dangerous consequences that thing but in the long term it was not necessarily a very small decision let's take a look at one of the largest prisoner exchange deals in the middle east history spotlights in the media reports of. gilad shalit and israeli soldier was captured inside he's country by hamas militants more than five years ago he was toasted you know gaza in exchange for his release and was demanded the release of one thousand palestinians serving prison sentences and these are the negotiations lingered as the two sides used mediators to broker the deal finally on the eighteenth of october so it was released his first interview he said he did you would help peace between israel and palestine i went with the exchange itself was not altogether peaceful this israeli soldiers and palestinians waiting to greet released prisoners clashed the west bank the swap. more than

a thousand prisoners who once told you i'm a new controversial issue for both sides the palestinians on do these really media and supporters of israel over the world were much more preoccupied with the do you watch the lead and with the issue of more than seven thousand palestinian prisoners . terror attack victims in israel i shocked with the decision to release people who were responsible for the deaths over israeli civilians. if israel proved capable to negotiate this deal that we just heard about maybe it's time to continue negotiating with hamas to canoe talks of commerce. and the problem is not to negotiate with anyone the question is on what exactly you negotiate and israel i can tell you a secret israel is negotiating with hamas

a lot of practical arrangements because commerce is controlling gaza which is in a way almost a state and we have a border with gaza so we have a sort of saw them relationship we cannot speak with hamas about political solution for the simple reason the commerce is against any political solution and they clambered the only possible solution to the israeli palestinian conflict is the elimination of the state of israel as well there's very little to discuss as long as this is the position. can you say can you predict what will be israel's reaction when the u.n. general assembly will sooner or later this will happen recognizes the state or the house. is all it is said as long as disses only a statement of the general assembly and he does not translate the two protective action in the un security council it has very little meanings and the basic

approach is to try to ignore it and as long. the palestinians don't do anything provocative against real israeli vital interests we're not going to respond but but i think that the countdown has started already to two published timed membership for membership in the un you agree that this will happen i think in our lifetime i don't know depends very much not only on these early approach but also on the american the porridge and fortunately some of the european countries do understand that a solution to this will oppose him a conflict needs of the legacy ocean and not unilateral decision because this is a little decision by itself even if it is declination does not solve any of the problems and naturally isil is not going to withdraw from these areas without a reasonable security security arrangements and i know that such arrangements you have to negotiate if you don't negotiate we cannot take such measures sale and when this when and if this recognition happens do you should we rather expect

and you intifada the west bank what would you say i don't think so and in the past feel you repeatedly said that they don't anticipate something like this for many reasons the most philistines to live in the west bank and joy to their better lives compared to what they had in the past and many of them are not going to circle fired for something that doesn't of a real prospect of success and i think that most of them understand the term loans that this will cannot withdraw from unless the resolve really good. i hope that this beginning gulf recalled nation my purse where the palestinian the thirty two degree to the negotiations with no preconditions amazingly and this is where we are right now the israeli prime minister says and i'm not out of prison to give i'm not working for the government but he does say i'm ready to begin dating aggression

today with no preconditions well the palestinian. say we are ready to negotiate but we do have to put conditions first for the said the minute deal with this and more important you have to declare in advance that you accepted the ball those will be asserted borders while the prime minister said this as to be negotiable or cannot agree in advance to make compromise for something that i don't know what i'm going to be given into the. well. let's change the subject the israelis this year have suddenly experienced a changed a change of climate zone well at least you've been living in the so-called arab spring for the last well eight or nine even nine months so what has been arab spring arab summer now arab autumn and still it is the arab spring well what i want to ask. does it somehow change the position of israel in the region i mean the the events in around the country around israel unfortunately

in the short term no dumping this spring seems to be much more like the winter is going to be something promising not only to us but also to the people regard this the pollution let's speak about egypt for a few seconds the people of puerto stood in the streets of kabul nine months ago. they had a very clear expectations to see that removal of mubarak this is something simple number two to enjoy real freedom and real democracy and number three more important than anything else to enjoy better live better economy and what is the situation in egypt today the leader of egypt is the former defense minister of mubarak so in a way this is the same system. not much more freedom is going to be given there is going to be an election to the parliament in a which the islamic movement the muslim brotherhood will take over. and almost it was going to be elected to be the

president is probably going to fail because the economic situation in egypt is terrible in this is not going to be much better in the next five years so the people who expect to see konami change today might be very disappointed and if you ask me what is my prediction my prediction is that in a year or two there will be in the wave of them on a station that will of the flag of the frustration of the people and their injured or all around the region because specifically in egypt and then when this kind of for another demonstrations begin the muslim brotherhoods will come to the people and after being at the probably the biggest party in the parliament there was said to the egyptian people we told you there is only one solution to your problem and this is islam so my turn to be a very islam mixtape with all the consequences not only in regard to his that but also in regard to the young educated secular people of egypt all began this but i

it's incredible i would say that not really islam is the solution to the economic problems of these are but but returning hundreds of thousands of people to hard work instead of demonstrating i think this is the main so that others are those i'm not saying that it is that as a back and saying that this is what the birth of a muslim blood of this is what we were there. it is wrong but we had a very similar experience in iran only thought to signal a very similar situation there was a corrupt of the people led to the game they begun to. even chose a prime minister. but the muslims so well much more organized. in the way to go over so we can see today me that those people who really wanted the chance to go left with a very extreme islamic regime so sometimes sort of loose and begin in one direction

but the outcome is very different says. former head of the israeli security council and senior research fellow of the israeli institute for national security studies spotlight will be back shortly after we take a break stay with will continue condition.

me it is easy easy easy easy to see how. little. touch. since such. public place

at. welcome back to spotlight i'm algren armin just a reminder my guest on the show today is you are a land former head of the israeli security council and senior research fellow at the institute in israel institute for national security studies. and we were talking about egypt about israeli relations with egypt but we saw a violent and time israeli protest earlier this year we saw at the israeli embassy in cairo in flames and well this was a very unfortunate thing for the relations between the two countries has this incident been settled by now are your lation any better i mean official relations between the two countries becomes official relationship between the israeli government and the current egyptian government is pretty good both of us understand that we do share mutual interest to stabilize the situation we do understand some

of the sensitivities so as long as this kind of discussions continue there is little reason to be concerned as a said i'm not sure that this regime in egypt will be the regime able to use one now and if that then many things might change in the middle east has the israeli e.g. would border become were vulnerable what i want to ask is who is behind the acts of sabotage against his pipeline and the border d.d.l. any idea. it is very clear since this change in egypt the reason decrease in the influence and the control of the egyptians police the egyptian security agencies it is all over egypt but the specifically in sinai which is not the most important area for egypt so this vacuum is used today by certain groups from hamas people in gaza to go to sinai to other people smuggle weapons from libya or from sudan or other places and they find it is

a very. confortable area to begin to conduct. regions against these little we have to take certain measures that we did not take all the where we could more rely on the egyptians but i don't think that this by itself is of the strategic level but does it does that one really does it bother israel that the bloke aid of the gaza strip from the egyptian side was eased that there's never been a real blockade from the egyptian side in the past i would say five years says this will be brought from guys are huge quantities of weapons that have been smuggled from egypt to go within the gyptian and systems or without the egyptian assistance in the end of the day goes a become to be a very. that is armed with a very advanced weapons this is typical for that we face we face it in gaza we face a very similar situation resolve a lebannon will his belies

a strong will burn fully isn't managed to create that loose ineffective determiners so for the time being the situation is under control now i like interviewing politicians from israel because they're pretty straightforward usually they're they're pretty frank in what they say can you tell me frankly what's easier for israel to deal with democratically elected governments in the neighboring country or to deal with predictable dictators that are in changeable for decades. the best of course is to negotiate with a little democracy but for the time being we cannot see any real democracy in the region let's take syria for example those not secure that bashar assad is the one of our biggest enemies is supporting because of allies a good friend of you done and syria official is perceived to be an enemy of israel but to certain extent even managed to control the borders so the border between israel and syria is a little league on so it leads there is someone who is accountable if bashar assad

goes to more and i think that he will go to more and from the moral point of view of being a bit he should go because he's doing an acceptable things freeze on people. can you tell me what will be the outcome the outcome could be very different it could be from any of the neon take over of syria it could be this their muslim brother was that the very strong in syria too will take over and will consist will construct let's say variant israeli government or syria can. can be. divided into different areas and even the stability of that syria had in the past thirty or forty years will go so at least in the short line this kind of change create a lot of concerns and even if in the end of the day there will be a real democratic state in the arab world just as it has been that be a long day it will be a long day just as it happened in their western new york and then in eastern europe

and then in south america it is a process that takes years and before with a pencil we have good reasons to be concerned because we live in this sense so as you said as you said for example of pressure as it should go but this is not in the immediate practical interest of your country now not saying that i can tell you . a little secret that seventy years ago on the worst some ideas in these were to try to help those who wanted to move bashar assad and some of them serve worley is a very bad person why don't we support the removal of such a bad person and these early prime minister that i'm sure on the side that not only that it is not our business to interfere but he also said that he was not sure what is the real israeli interest because we did none of them know who might to succeed but if you goes so fortunately we do have a lot of other problems fortunately we have the privilege of not being part of the

game that is played around us we are not interfering in any place neither in egypt nor in syria know in and other places hopefully that the. the end of the day there will be real democracies in this too in this compass something of i cannot see in the near future mr allen we saw washington pretty happy over the death of little khadafi was his death good news for for israel for official israel. the reason very little influence. of the situation in libya on any kind of easily interest so in this case we could observe the situation in libya from distance and i think the majority of the people in this the world very happy with the end of gadhafi not because this is our winters but because it is it was a bad and cold person and hopefully will bring a change a positive change to his own people so now. you know the one i want to talk about

your relations with turkey as we remember they were destroyed well if they're destroyed but but but really much harmed by by the israelis rage against the the for the telly and the gaza for till you now do you think that israel is trying to day to to to really improve the relations with this country i think that is a list trying to do whatever we can in order to improve the relationship there was a can turkey a few days ago we've been over those systems that was rejected by the turks. this is not our decision mr. those successful domestically in turkey made a strategic decision to become to be the leader of the slummy quarter or at least in this sunni islamic world and in order to gain much more support in syria lebannon produced in the in the arena egypt and elsewhere yes very much doubt it in tel aviv exactly the best and the most. i would say promising action

that you can take is to be against israel because whenever you take actions against israel it increases your popularity and is ready to circle for a delicious soup with israel for something that for him is more important soviet union tried it in the seventy's and it did work. but it is different in the sense that even believes that it can be there really though that can take over the traditional with all of countries like egypt saudi arabia and others that some of the power of the munition so you believe that it will be their real islam weekly bill and all the problems with the flotilla and others were only excuses that were used by him in no the to deter the way division lation ship with israel because this is. you mentioned you mentioned the transformation our via the regimes after the revolution after the arab spring and you said that that maybe

by the end of the day which will be a long day there may be real democracy but now they may go the other way not the way that the revolution was proclaiming in the slogans is that. theer are very early and islam is ation of the region of radical islam coming to to surround israel. no doubt that this is a concern actually as two wings there is deeded onion wing which is most shearers ring and iran is trying to not only to be all started to is a but also to export what they call the iranian revolution partially successful in lebanon lebanon is for all practical purposes is controlled by iran its proxy crucible up and at the same time the muslim brother was in egypt in the summer other companies are trying to create again a different but additional islamic movements. that can be moderate on one hand but

can be much more extreme but we're never is the is concerned even the moderate muslims are against islam so you cannot feel and the islamic leader no matter our more duties that can say simply that well israel as the right to exist as a jewish state to the additionally overlit just lee you cannot accept it so slim ization of the middle east is bed full is a little and since we are located we have good reasons to be concerned and you are really afraid of that i mean this is a threat to your country and military threat or for a threat to to to to the existence of your country or what or you just are concerned or you are you afraid this is a difference you know when we are not afraid we fast enough in our father problems in our puzzle we're not afraid but we are concerned but i'll give you an example we do have a peace agreement with egypt this preserve game and give is a lot of benefits one of them it was an economic benefit because israel could decrease dramatically the size of the defense budget since the day that we signed

a peace agreement with egypt so the size of the defense budget that was thirty percent of the g.d.p. only thirty five years ago now is only six percent and we could do it thanks to the good relationship with egypt if it changes who knows what will the consequences thank you thank you very much for this interview and just to remind you that my guest on the show was your. former head of israeli security council and now a senior research fellow at the israeli hands to think for national security standards and that's it for now for all of us here if you want to have your say with spotlight or if somebody's mind you think i fit into the next very good drop me a live album in our path. are you and let's keep the show interact but i will be back with more to add a comment on what's going on here on out thank gosh until then they are our team and take.

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