hello again or welcome to the spotlight they interview cheryl tate. and then today my guest on the program is. israel says the unrest in the middle east didn't harm tell over but the arab spring has inspired many palestinians to step up the fight for independence and israel's closest neighbors syria and egypt are still in turkey so how does the jewish state cope with the revolutionary spirit within and outside its borders we're asking the former head of the israeli security council

and senior research fellow at the institute for national security studies in which . although the arab spring didn't affect israel directly it's complicated jerusalem's relations with its neighbors the former egyptian leader hosni mubarak was the jewish state's staunch ally for three decades but after he got overthrown a long simmering hostility against israel has burst into the open. but israel shows it's ready to talk just days ago in jerusalem managed to bring back its soldier from the palestinian captivity in return for more than a thousand palestinians. together thank you thank you very much for being with us well first of all i'd like to ask you about this exchange of more than a thousand palestinian prisoners for one captured israeli soldier.

it's a controversial matter everybody welcomes it but some say it's a concession to hamas on the part of israel how would you comment on. well it was a controversial matter in israel too because this proposal of one prisoner for two for one thousand is president of course it does then just consequences in regard to the future personally i think of that it was not a smart decision to agree to such a deal i think that we missed some better opportunities in the past five years but at least it shows that the israeli public is extremely concerned about every specific person and especially about the person that as a uniform and he was sent by the country to defend the state and the country shows that we are ready to do almost anything in order to save him. and but it might have some dangerous consequences that's why i think that in the long term it

was not necessarily a very small decision let's take a look at one of the largest prisoner exchange deals in the middle east history spotlights in the media reports of. gilad shalit and this really soldier was captured inside he's country by hamas militants more than five years ago he was kept hostage to gaza in exchange for his release and was demanded the release of who will one thousand palestinians serving prison sentences and these are the negotiations lingered as the two sides used mediators to broker the deal finally on the eighteenth of october sholay was released his first interview he said he hoped to do you would help peace between israel and palestine i want with the exchange itself was not altogether peaceful as israeli soldiers and palestinians waiting to greet released prisoners clashed the west bank the swap of more than

a thousand prisoners who one soldier remains a controversial issue for both sides the palestinians on do these really media and soup. over the world were much more preoccupied with the do you watch the lead and with the issue of more than seven thousand palestinian prisoners. terror attack victims in israel i shocked with the decision to release people who were responsible for the deaths over israeli civilians. if israel proved capable to negotiate this deal that we just heard about maybe it's time to continue negotiating with hamas to can the talks come hours. and the problem is not to negotiate with anyone the question is on what exactly you negotiate and isil i can tell you sic that israel is negotiating with hamas on a lot of practical arrangements because commerce is controlling gaza which is in

a way almost a state and we have a border with gaza so we have a sort of southern relationship we cannot speak with hamas about political solution for the simple reason the commerce is against any political solution and they clambered the only possible solution to the israeli palestinian conflict is the elimination of the state of israel as well there's very little to discuss as long as this is the position. can you say can you predict what will be israel's reaction when the u.n. general assembly will sooner or later this will happen recognizes the state or the house. is all of this. as long as disses only a statement of the general assembly and he does not translated to protective action in the un security council it has very little meanings and the basic approach is to try to ignore it and as long as the palestinians don't do anything

provocative against real israeli vital interests we are not going to respond but but i think that the countdown and start. don't ready to to palace times membership for membership in the un hadn't you agree that this will happen i think in our lifetime i don't know depends very much not only on these early approach but also on the american the porridge and the fortunately some of the european countries do understand that a solution to this will oppose in the conflict the needs of the negotiations and not in the level decision because this in the local decision by itself even if it is declination does not solve any of the problems and naturally isil is not going to be drawn from these areas we thought of his the bill security the security arrangements i know the two ever such arrangements you have to negotiate if you don't negotiate we cannot take such measures to sail and when this when and if this recognition happens do you should we rather expect and you intifada

the west bank what would you say i don't think so and in the past seal you repeatedly said that they don't anticipate something like this for many reasons the most palestinians who live in the west bank enjoy today a better life compared to what they had in the past and many of them are not going to circle fired for something that doesn't have a real prospect of success and i think that most of them understand the term loans that is a little cannot read lot from unless there is a real good she ation i hope this beginning of recalled nation my cross where the palestinian the thirty two greed to the negotiations with no preconditions amazingly and this is where we are right now this is a prime minister says and i'm not a prisoner given i'm not working or the government but he does say i'm ready to begin dating to go into day with no preconditions well the palestinians say we're

ready to negotiate but we do have to put conditions first for the said the member to view these and more important you have to declare in advance that you accept that the boulders will be a set of borders while the prime minister said this has to be negotiable or cannot agree in advance to make compromise for something that i don't know what i'm going to be given in the. well. let's change the subject the israelis this year have suddenly experienced a changed change of climate zone well at least you have been living in the so-called arab spring for the last well eight or nine even nine months. that has been arab spring arab summer now arab autumn and still it is the arab spring well what i want to ask. does it somehow change the position of israel in the region i mean the the events in around the country around israel

unfortunately in the shoulder are no dumping this spring seems to be much more like the winter is going to be something promising not only to us but also to the people regard this the volution let's speak about egypt for a few seconds the people protested in the streets of cairo or nine months ago they had a very clear expectations to see the removal of mubarak this is something simple number two to enjoy real freedom and real democracy and number three more important than anything else to enjoy better live better economy now what is the situation in egypt today the leader of egypt is the former defense minister of mubarak so in a way this is the same system. not much more freedom is going to be given there is going to be an election to the parliament in a which the islamic movement the muslim brotherhood will take over and almost it was going to be elected to be the

president is probably going to fail because the economic situation in egypt is terrible in this is not going to be much better in the next five years so the people who expect to see a dramatic economic change today might be very disappointed and if you ask me what is my prediction my prediction is that enabled to the will be another wave of them on a station that will reflect the force. station of the people and that is you or all around the region because specifically in egypt and then when this kind of for another demonstrations begin the muslim brotherhoods will come to the people and after being at the probably the biggest part in the parliament there will say to the egyptian people we told you there is only one solution to your problem and this is islam so my turn to be a very slow mixtape with all the consequences not only in regard to israel but also in regard to the young educated secular people of egypt will began this but i well

i would say that not really is is the solution to the economic problems of these are but but returning hundreds of thousands of people to hard work instead of demonstrating i think this is the main so that i'm not saying that that is the answer but i'm saying that this is what the birth of the muslim brothers is what we were there to tell them this is wrong isn't it it is wrong but we had a very similar experience in iran only thirty two years ago very similar situation there was a corrupted leader the people hated him they began a real democratic process. even chose a prime minister but but the muslims were much more organized so when he in the way to over so we can see today in iran that those people who really wanted to change thirty duce ago are now left with a very extreme islamic regime so sometimes sort of allusion begin in one direction but the outcome is very different says

a lot of former head of the israeli security council and senior research fellow of the israeli institute for national security studies probably will be back shortly after we take a break stay with will continue condition. culture is that so much me is going to make me a lot of people here in the music below me feel your leaders say they have a plan to cope with greece and sovereign debt problems and to build a fire wall against italy's. the eat. the

limits. it's just such a. subliminal . moment. welcome back to spotlight i'm algren arbonne just a reminder my guest on the show today is euro a land former head of the israeli security council and senior research fellow at the institute in israel institute for national security studies. mr l.

and we were talking about egypt about israeli relations with egypt but we saw a violent and time israeli protest earlier this year we saw the israeli embassy in cairo in flames and well this was a very unfortunate thing for the relations between the two countries has this incident been settled by now are your lation any better i mean official relations between the two countries becomes official relationship between the israeli government and the current egyptian government is pretty good both of us understand that we do show mutual interest to stabilize the situation we do understand some of those sensitivities so as long as this kind of discussions continue there is little reason to be concerned as a said i'm not sure that this regime in egypt will be the regime able to use one mark and if that then many things might change in the middle east has the israeli

e.g. would border become more vulnerable what i want to ask is who was behind there are acts of sabotage against this pipeline and the border leidy have any idea. it is very clear since this change in egypt the. decrease in the influence and the control of the egyptians police the egyptian security agencies it is all over egypt but the specifically in sinai which is not the most important area for egypt so this vacuum is used today by certain groups from hamas people in gaza to go to sinai to other people smuggle weapons from libya or from sudan or other places and then find it is a very. comfortable area to begin to conduct. regions against these live we have to take certain measures that we did not take all the where we could more rely on the gyptian zz but i don't think that this by itself is of it is the political does it

does that worry does it bother israel that the located of the gaza strip from the egyptian side was eased a bit there's never been a real blockade from the egyptian side in the past i would say five years says this will be brought from guys are huge quantities of weapons that have been smuggled from egypt to go within the gyptian and systems or without the egyptian assistance in the end of the day goes and become to be a very. that is armed with a very advanced weapons this is typical for that we face we face it in gaza we face a very similar situation reserve the lebannon will is belies a stronger bill and of fully isn't managed to create that loose ineffective determiners so for the time being the situation is under control now i like interviewing politicians from israel because they're pretty straightforward usually they're they're pretty frank in what they say can you tell me frankly what's easier

after israel to deal with democratically elected governments in the neighboring country or to deal with predictable dictators that aren't changeable for decades. the best of course is to negotiate with a little democracy but for the time being we cannot see any real democracy in the region let's take syria for example those not secure that bashar assad is the one of our biggest enemies is supporting because a bailout is a good friend of you done and syria official is perceived to be an enemy of israel but to certain extent even manage to control the borders so the border between israel and syria is relatively calm so it leads there is someone who is accountable if bashar assad goes to more. and i think that he will go to more and from the moral point of view of thinking that we should go because he's doing unacceptable things freeze on people. can you tell me what will be the outcome the outcome could

be very very different it could be from any of the army and take over of syria it could be this the muslim brotherhood's that they're very strong as syria too will take over and will consist will construct let's say variant is a really a government or syria can. be. divided into different areas and even the stability of that syria had in the past thirty or forty years will go so at least in the short run this kind of change create a lot of concerns and even if in the end of the day there will be a real democratic states in the arab world just as it has been that be a long day it will be a long day just as it happened in their western europe and then in eastern europe and then in south america it is a process that takes years and before we tip and so we have good reasons to be concerned because we live in this is essential as you said as you said for example of bashar as it should go but this is not in the immediate practical interest of

your country now not saying that i can tell you. a little secret that seven years ago on the worst some ideas in these were to try to help those who wanted to remove bashar assad and some of them serve worley is a very bad person why don't we support the removal of such a bad person and these early prime minister that i'm sure on the side that not only that it is not our business to interfere but he also said that he was not sure what is the real is really interest because we did none other know who might to succeed but if he goes so fortunately we do have a lot of other problems fortunately we have the privilege of not being part of the game. that is played around us we are not interfering in any place neither in egypt nor in syria and all in and other places hopefully that in the end of the day there will be real democracies in this too in this company is something that i cannot see

in the near future mr allan that we saw washington pretty happy over the death of little khadafi was his death good news for for israel for officials are. the reason very little influence. of the situation in libya on any kind of easily interest saw in this case we could observe the situation in libya from distance and i think the majority of the people in israel we're very happy with the end of gadhafi not because this is our winters but because it is it was a bad and cold person and hopefully it will bring a change a positive change to his own people so. you know the one i want to talk about your relations with turkey as we remember they were destroyed well if they're destroyed but but but really much harmed by by the israelis raid against the the for the telly and the gaza for till you now do you think that israel is trying to day

to to to really improve the relations with this country i think that is a list trying to do whatever we can in order to improve the relationship there was a turkey a few days ago we've been over those systems that was rejected by the turks. this is not our decision mr. those successful domestically in turkey made a strategic decision to become to be the leader of the slummy quarter or at least in the sunni islamic world and in order to gain much more support in syria lebannon palestinian arena egypt and else will yes very much doubt it in tel aviv exactly the best and the most. i would say promising action that you can take is to be against israel because whenever you take actions against israel it increases your popularity and he's ready to circle for the relationship with israel for something

that for him is more important soviet union tried it in the seventy's and it did work. but it is different in the sense that even believes that it can be there really though that can take over the traditional with all of countries like egypt saudi arabia and others that some of the power of diminishing so you believe that it will be the real islamic legal and all the problems with the flotilla and others were only excuses that were used by him in no the to deter you are delusional a ship with israel because this is the region. you mentioned you mentioned the transformation of the regimes after the revolution after the arab spring and you said that that maybe by the end of the day which will be a long day there may be real democracy but now they may go the other way not the way that that that the revolution was proclaiming in the slogans is that.

theer are very early and islam is ation of the region of radical islam coming to to surround israel. no doubt that this is a concern actually as two wings there is the iranian wing which is most sheers ring and iran is trying to not only to be on stage who is a but also to export what they call the owner of the evolution partially successful in lebanon lebanon is for all practical purposes is controlled by iran for its proxy of his beloved and at the same time the muslim brother was in egypt in the some other companies trying to create again a different but additional islamic movements. that can be moderate on one hand but can be much more extreme but when never is there is concern even moderate muslims are against islam so you cannot feel any islamic leader no matter our more duties that can say simply that well israel as the right to exist as

a jewish state to the addition of a live just lee you cannot accept it so slim ization of the middle east is bed full is a little and since we are looking at the we have good reasons to be concerned and you are really afraid of that i mean this is a threat to your country and military threat threat to to to to the existence of your country to what are you just are concerned only are you afraid this is a difference you know we are not afraid we passed enough in our father problems in our puzzle we are not afraid but we are concerned but i will give you an example we do have a peace agreement with egypt this preserve game and give is a lot of benefits one of them it was an economic benefit because israel could decrease dramatically the size of the defense budget since the day that we signed a peace agreement with egypt so the size of the defense budget that was thirty percent of the g.d.p. only thirty five years ago now is only six percent and we could do it thanks to the good relationship with egypt if it changes who knows what will the consequences

thank you thank you very much for this interview and just to remind you that my guest on the show was. former head of the israeli security council and now a senior research fellow at the israeli ns to think for national security standards and that's it for now ron paul of us if you want to have your stay with spotlight or if somebody's mind you think i should take the next right here drop me a live album in our past party ari and let's keep the show interact but i will be back with more to add a comment on what's going on in an hour thank gosh until then they have our tea and take.

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