here with r.t. main stories we're covering for you the south american anti corporate protest is now half their battle the upcoming winter without power supplies after authorities confiscated their generators and fuel whether they remain on a positive note as their ranks of poles to primaries and the national guard. general is nationalist party support for its anti immigrant start swearing in the country critics say the trend has given rise to violent crime and could cause even deeper social divisions. and a man in rome millions of people of their life savings or nine hundred ninety is back is once again promising the earth and there are still plenty of people ready to invest in this questionable enterprise. spotlight is next and this time not an offset start with an energy experts and this goes on it's a limited all reserves and what that could mean for the future.

hello again a welcome truth about life millions of you share one party i'm now doing our very own today my guest on the show is richard jadick. according to the international energy agency the surging and richard the one who will most likely leave the workforce to a dire future hold reserves are running out faster than expected and the growing fuel consumption raises environmental concerns but this all the warnings people continue burning oil and oil and the promising alternative energy sector is still unsufficient be developed so what's to be done to avoid that future without dramatically changing our way of living and maybe russia can help with that we're

asking the deputy executive director of the international energy agency richard jenkins. the international energy agency says the world is entering that golden age of gas with production to rise by fifty percent in the next twenty years russia's going to sheeple were hundred and ten billion cubic meters of gas to europe through its south and north stream pipelines the construction of south stream is starting suit and north stream will start operating in early november the trans underneath the baltic sea and delivers russian gas directly to western europe this is mentioning crude european energy security and we can mix dependence on transit countries. michel thank you for having me thank you thank you very much for me for being here . are the international energy agency the i.a.e.a.

has signed a new operation agreements with russia one. you in the. couple. it's a good question but. basically we're continuing the evolution of our cooperation which is going on for many years but in particular the focus is coming will be more and more on energy efficiency which is a very important objective for russia not only will it allow russia to adopt a new more modern technologies will be and benefit for economic growth in russia it will give you more resources to add to your exports so i think it will be a win win for russia and for the international community because greater supplies of russian oil and gas will mean greater energy security for the rest of the world well we like. energy security security. especially of demand but also the security of supply there anyway when you talk security of supply security of

the moment we mean that there is a contradiction between the consumers and the suppliers do these new agreements at least try try to overcome these kind for the u.s. in a way because one of the main components of the agreements is that we work more closely together and we figure we can learn from each other particularly in improving our market forecasts and this year's world energy outlook which is coming out in just a few days now in fact our executive director will be in moscow on the eleventh of november to present it just two days after that after the worldwide launch. it benefits greatly from cooperation with russian experts we did a special chapter of press or actually a special section focusing on russia and in preparing that i mean the judgments are all our own they have to be but in preparing that to that section we relied very much on our conversations with the russian officials and executives from

a variety of private companies and. well in russia richard since you've mentioned the forecasts well according to one of your forecasts of the i.a.e.a. i quote i have concerns about the state of the world economy while demand will rise by one point three million barrels to ninety point five million barrels a day in two thousand and twelve next year what keeps the demand so high despite what's happening in the world this is a poor answer is that there is a crisis and part of the world and the other part of the world which continues to grow and the part of the world is continuing to grow has a high marginal demand for oil products so oil is continuing to grow and why is that because they're getting rich enough to buy cars in china and india so it's transportation in those two countries which is a major part of the incremental demand in fact in o.e.c.d. countries the developed world where there is an economic crisis you may actually see declines in the use of oil yeah and consumers in any young growing economies

they like they part. very gaskin c.m.e. . this is the thing about savings we just hope they buy more efficient cars that at this stage in their development in our country had available what so they do have forecast for for oil prices we know we don't we don't we don't forecast interest we what we do is we base our projections for short term prices we use basically the future price that's available in the market we just assume that the that the people that are in the financial markets know better than we do what the price might be in the future and so we just use the future strip as we call it the different prices for different time periods as as the work our working assumption on prices and then we figure out supply demand from bad rather than trying to forecast price well let's talk about libya libya produced one point six million barrels of oil a day right now production fell dramatically because of those civil war everything

related to come. words to only temples in the day some thousand barrels a day which is the if i'm not mistaken to think of last month what does it mean for the world market maybe it would be about what was the considerable source of fuel was it yeah i mean the problem with oil of course is that it's a very inelastic. fuel price unless the is low so small changes in supply mean big changes in price and that's basically what we saw in that period and because of that one point six million barrel a day shortfall in libyan production and most libyan production was exported so it was all about a shortfall of one and a half million barrels a day on the world market so well and especially if it's because the issue of the shortage was prolonged i mean it really would be an exports went to about zero in march and so that's now been you know we're going on seven months now and they're

recovering a little bit they'll be able to hire this month and by the end of the year they could be between four hundred six hundred thousand barrels a day but even by june we estimated over one hundred thirty million barrels have been taken out of the market and that has to come from somewhere either it either it comes from from a declining stocks either commercial stocks or government stocks or it means command is lower than it would have been otherwise and why is that because the tightening of the market raises the price and so the price means some some people that would have bought oil by less oil saving said you know well that's ok but i don't know if it's savings if you're going without it does that mean it may mean lower but nobody's nobody even considering trying to use to please you was or is really what we did use them i mean we used them in june and. we think that that present prevented a price spike at the time because it helped to supply the market we really sixty

million barrels. thirty eight million barrels of a. it was from government strategic stocks twenty two million barrels was released by allowing companies to hold less stocks companies have kind of like a bank has a reserve requirement companies sometimes are required by governments to hold stocks so release those who we relax those requirements some countries did and other countries sold oil into the market out of their strategic stocks and that that release was very well received by the market more than thirty more than ninety seven percent of the thirty eight million barrels that was offered from strategic stocks was picked up by the market and by the way that oil was sold at market prices so we weren't trying to undercut the market we were just trying to supply the market at the prevailing price well you mentioned that the libya is starting to regain its previous production but now it's ten thousand thought maybe that fifty thousand all in all five hundred thousand five hundred thousand not one point six

million. how long will it take libya to to regain its one point that is the possibility is what it's right and should do yeah well no but in a short answer is nobody knows then of what we've been saying is it will take many months maybe even but they did destroy the industry i mean it's no good there is some damage there is some damage you know and it has to be recovered and oil fields you know they can be damaged. you know just if they're neglected so we do you know the damage needs to be assessed to the infrastructure to the fields but i'm cautiously optimistic that the oil fields could come back on. by the end of next year but i don't want to make any such predictions simply because we just don't have enough information at this time so if it's going to take a while and one of the reasons why we now think we can get by with lower amounts is because it is ramping up

a little bit also there were some other small outages around the world that have now. corrected but the main reason is that demand is weaker than we thought it was economic forecasts are going down and so we are and we're not the only ones forecasters around the world are revising downward their sumption sorry their forecasts for being not only for this year but for two thousand and twelve as well so we think the market will stay in relative balance but. it's it's not going to be a good. year for the for the oil industry i think well actually if we talk in general about the arab spring it certainly. was welcomed by politicians in the major democracies we saw hillary clinton out amused she was when she saw the picture you. are the last set of just take being massacred yeah they leave the other day but they will work it wasn't so much talking about the

arab spring was that well if it did disrupt the market and but you know markets can be disrupted in many ways than and. you never know where it's going to come from i mean the last time we use stocks it was because of a hurricane. you know the first time we use stocks it was because of international aggression this was because of civil civil dispute. in nigeria they've had a lot of problems with sabotage the pipelines the people trying to steal the oil. and it's also related with with civil problems there so there's just you never know where it's coming from but you you need to always be. on guard for these kinds of disruptions and that's that's one of the reasons that the i.a.e.a. was created says richard jeni for executives director of the international. spotlight will be back shortly to take a break so stay with us. i

. think we're coming. just. live free. education

free. free. free. free. free limited freedom to feel for your media project a free media party dot com. live to. welcome back to spotlight i am album just a reminder every guest on the show today is richard jenkins deputy executive director of the international energy agency richard roth let's talk about about russia's policy well there's lots of talk about the red direction gradual red direction russian crude. flows from from the west towards asia and first of all to

china how is it seen in the west could it be a reason for. more for a clash of interests between russia and the west china and the west no i really don't think so and the simple reason is that it's a global market these days the oil market is a worldwide and to. china is where the action is that's where they're growing in consumption china and india are the two primary and the middle east and of course they have their own oil so i think it's fully understandable in fact we we anticipated o.e.c.d. or oil demand will actually decline so it's a natural process china has the demand they're willing to pay the price as they get the oil according to the latest. report i quote the world faces a dire future unless a complete change of course is made to deal with the huge problem of seargent energy to moms and quit what does the are you

a suggests doing in all of the avoids the future well i mean you're talking about a dire future and in the event of surging demand for fossil fuels i mean energy is life as population increases economic activity increases and even though we all hope that our ability to use our energy efficiently improves over time we know that rising a rising population in so long as that happens means there's going to be rising energy demand the key question is how we supply satisfied at the man right now our energy mix in all countries or almost all countries is heavily focused on fossil fuels and it is concerned there is that fossil fuels are first of all there are there are supplies limited nobody knows so when will run out but everybody knows that it's a fossil resource and therefore is limited in supply took millions of years to create the oil and it's going to go away and in hundreds of years so it'll it'll in

some day also it's a dirty fuel. production of oil and gas can be dirty consumption of it is certainly . in terms of normal air pollution but particularly i think what we were warning about in that particular passage is that it is the prospect of climate change well speaking about again as well actually specialists and specially the russian people from gazprom they say that they of course say that again as is more climate friendly than orwell and they're better production and consumption of gas so the i.a.e.a. also says i quoted that the world was potentially entering a golden age of gas with production said to freeze by over fifty percent by twenty thirty five well do you think that that really get as is going to replace or they had it will be good for for climate for the gas competes more and more

properly actually with coal than with and then with oil because because gas is used for power generation and in industry and those in those uses it. it's much cleaner than coal and not only in terms of the normal air pollution and you think oh but in in the key area of emissions of carbon dioxide. natural gas and emits far less about half as much and by energy value it's cold us so it is a much cleaner fuel then coal and we sometimes talk over natural gas as a bridge bridging fuel because it can help us while we're still dependent on fossil fuels reduce emissions until we're we have the capability of rely more on the advanced technologies and renewable sources of energy and so on better and better not admitting at all but. we can't rely on natural gas indefinitely because even natural gas doesn't get some c o two and so over time our energy demand will grow to the point where even natural gas could lead to

global warming and that's why we talk about it as a transition for why i mention this quote from the i report is that. we get an impression that he really remains rather skeptical about such things as then says the renewable sources of energy well this is why you're depending on gas and we'll forecast all based on an oddly existing well first of all there are scenarios and this scenario has certain certain assumptions and one of the assumptions is that the consumers will welcome guests and that's that's very important right now a gas is undergoing a renaissance because the prices come down but is demand increases the price will also increase and there then there'll be a rebalancing of markets so. but you know we're it's not that we're skeptical of renewables it's that we just do the arithmetic we recognize that a good many countries particularly in western europe but other countries around the world including china have have targets for instance expansion of their renewable

industries we feel that they are committed honestly committed to honoring those targets and they'll do so but we also know that there's a tremendous amount of investment in the existing system and and no country is going to give up that capital stock before it's time it would just be you know none of us are rich enough that we can afford just to throw away perfectly good equipment and that's one of the reasons that we sometimes worry about what we call technical or technology lock in that if it if the coal plants built today will be around for fifty years and so that's why we think it's very important for countries that are serious about this to to. begin and to to actively support the expansion of renewables but we just look at the size of the of the industry and the amount to the but the bottlenecks that exist and we figure that it would be very good if

a new bills to expand say at an average rate of ten percent a year and given the small role they play now that means it's going to take a long time before they dissipate. it's fossil fuels it's just a rhythmic well very soon the very chilly vladimir putin will be so the brits and the launching of this i think his favorite project the north stream project which will unload the first gas supply from russia. underneath the baltic sea to germany and that this is this is really a great project well what do you think is the prevailing prevailing sentiment in the sentiment in europe because i want to people want to want an interrupted supply from the sure that's steady supply to be sure in the supply but on the other hand they are worried about the growing dependency on the russian gas and says so what we said we will be prevailing well i think i think you you catch it very well. they they appreciate russia as

a supplier i think most europeans think that russia has been a reliable supplier over the years in recent years there because of the. issues with ukraine there's been some nervousness and but i think anybody who looks at the at the data will realize that yes russians dependent on mean yes europe is dependent on russia for supply but russia is also dependent upon europe for demand care yeah and in fact russia has a smaller share of the european market then europe has of russia's exports so you can say that russia is more dependent on europe than europe is dependent on russia except the one for goes the money if it doesn't make the sale the other way for those heat in the winter time you'd rather have money so the important thing though is that they have to work together. you know no no commercial. transaction takes

place unless it's beneficial for both the buyer in the seller and that's the key well i guess most of the people especially the politicians the businessmen in. you know they understand that what you say is that is that in case of mutual dependency your red dependency is just power from the problem your approach is the better than thinks is the other there's a problem you know there's a there's a joke in the united states that if you if you owe the bank thousand dollars you can't page your problem if you owe the bank a million dollars and you can't pay is the bank's problem right so but why the europe isn't so happy about that about the sound project why isn't your pretty ready to two two three i would sway to the big one of the us as we get here in russia is it because the ukraine is lobbying against this russian project. not aware of any particular ukrainian lobbying on that score but i suppose it could be true i don't know. i'm just not a position where i would know about that but i think the main reason is normally

when we look at increasing your security one of the simplest ways to do it is increase they've been firstly of your sources of supply and that can mean diversifying the routes from the same supplier because sometimes there is an interruption of a single route but the supplier would be perfectly happy to supply from another route but it's also diversifying your suppliers and there's a whole host of countries in that southern area that are potential suppliers of gas to europe. particularly the caspian states but also countries like iraq in the future could be potential so there is a european idea of developing what they call the southern corridor or and the i.a.e.a. looks favorably on that but that doesn't necessarily have to come at the expense of other other projects we we don't endorse any particular commercial projects but we do look at diversification and the southern corridor which is an important opportunity for your to diversify and i think that's why they're looking at it but

to put it into perspective in this golden age of gas study that you you mentioned we. see basically an increment in european import demand because their production is declining even though their demand isn't growing very rapidly their import demand will grow on the order of two hundred twenty billion cubic meters per year. over the next twenty years that to put it in perspective that's equivalent to about six pipeline projects maybe a dozen large l.n.g. plants so there's plenty of room eventually for all the projects we're talking about today is just a question of timing i was the ambassador american ambassador in kazakhstan when we were working a buck and that's what i tried to explain to people there that you know it was not directed against an expansion of the c.p.c. line i told people that will eventually have both and here it is eleven years later and we have the baku jape pipeline and the c.p.c.

expansion spending plan approved so i was right and i think that's what will happen to gas area the future thank you very much for being with us was a pleasure having you on the show and just to remind that my guest today was richard the step its executive director of the international pen if you take nothing from not from all of us if you want to have your sales prototype well maybe you have someone in mind so you think i can see the next time this right here line . i'll teach you how you let's see spotlights into the movie back with more of a problem side of what's going on in and outside of russia so then they are to see and take thank you ladies.

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