hello live from moscow this is r.t. international seven thirty pm moscow time and our top stories tonight new york police get frosty on the empty wall street protesters confiscating their heating equipment just as this sounds a blizzard hitting the east coast tonight leaving hundreds of campaigners out of the cold. a stern warning from the arab league is calling on syria to stop the bloodshed as dozens of civilian deaths are reported in fresh government crackdowns at least syria committee is due for another round crisis talks with tenacity. and this is the scene in tel aviv this saturday night where thousands of israelis are packed protesting the government spending saying they're not getting enough while the military is getting too much. also history repeating itself the man who built the biggest financial permit in russian history may be back to the old tricks after serving time for robbing millions of the savings and now he's got his sights on

investors in ukraine. we all know will be around forever but as our energy demands rocket that supply is dwindling fast apparently a spotlight next asks how we make hope. hello again a welcome to spotlight the interview share heartache time albion are going to name my guest on the show richard gere. according to the international energy agency the surging and richard the one who will most likely lead the world to a diet. called reserves are running out faster than expected and the growing fuel consumption raises environmental concerns but this right all the warnings people continue burning oil and oil and the promising alternative energy sector is still

on sufficiently developed so what's to be done to avoid that dive future without dramatically changing our way of living and maybe russia could help with that we're asking the debtor is executive director of the international energy agency richard jenkins. the international energy agency says the world is entering big golden age of gas with production to rise by fifty percent in the next twenty years russia is going to sheeple were hundred and ten billion cubic meters of gas to europe through its south and north by plights the construction of south stream is starting soon and north stream will start operating in early november the trans underneath the baltic sea and delivers russian gas directly to western europe this is mantra improve european energy security and we can mix dependence on transit operators.

are welcome to the show thank you for having me thank you thank you very much for going for the get. over the international energy agency the i.a.e.a. has signed corp agreements with russia one. you in these it is can we explain in couple what it's it's it's a good question but. basically we're continuing the evolution of our cooperation which is going on for many years in particular the focus coming will be more and more on energy efficiency which is a very important objective for russia not only will it allow russia to adopt a new more modern technologies will be and benefit for economic growth in russia it will give you more resources to add to your exports so i think it will be a win win for russia and for the international community because greater supplies of russian oil and gas will mean greater energy security for the rest of the world

who would like. energy security and security. especially of the month but also the security of supply there anyway when so security of supply security of the moment we mean that there is a contradiction between the consumers and the suppliers do these new agreements at least try to try to to overcome these countries yes in a way because one of the main components of the agreements is that we work more closely together and we figure we can learn from each other particularly in improving our market forecasts and this year's world energy outlook which is coming out in just a few days now in fact our executive director will be in moscow on the eleventh of november to present it just two days after that after the worldwide launch. it benefits greatly from cooperation with russian experts we did a special chapter of actually special section focusing on russia and in preparing

that i mean the judgments are all our own they have to be but in preparing at that section we relied very much on conversations with russian officials and executives from a variety of private companies and. well in russia richard since you've mentioned the forecasts well according to one of your forecasts of the i.a.e.a. i quote this consumes about the state of the world economy while demand will rise by one point three million barrels to ninety point five million barrels a day in two thousand and twelve next year what keeps the game on so high despite what's happening in the world the simple answer is that there is a crisis in part of the world and the other part of the world that continues to grow and the part of the world is continuing to grow has a high marginal demand for oil products so oil is continuing to grow and why is that because they're getting rich enough to buy cars in china and india and so it's

transportation in those two countries which is a major part of the incremental demand in fact in o.e.c.d. countries the developed world where there is an economic crisis you may actually see declines in the use of oil yeah and consumers and young growing economies they like they parse. very gaskin see if. there is one thing about savings they just hope they buy more efficient cars and at this stage in their development in our country let's look at available what's the forecast for for oil prices we don't we don't we don't we don't forecast interest we what we do is we base our projections for short term prices we use basically the future price that's available in the market we just assume that the that the people that are in the financial markets know better than we do what the price might be in the future and so we just used the future strip as we call it the different prices for different time periods as

the as the we're working assumption on prices and then we figure out supply and demand from that rather than trying to forecast price well let's talk about libya libya produced one point six million barrels of oil a day right now production fell dramatically because of those civil war everything had to come. to only ten thousand a day sometimes barrels a day which is the if i'm not mistaken the figure from last month what does it mean for the world market maybe it would be it were what was a considerable source of fuel was it yeah i mean the problem with oil of course is that it's a very inelastic fuel put a price in the last the is low so small changes in supply mean big changes in price and that's basically what we saw in that period and because of that one point six million barrel of a shortfall in libyan production and most libyan production was exported so but about a sort of fall of one and a half million barrels a day on the world markets alone and especially if it's because the issue of the

shortage was prolonged i mean it really libyan exports went to about zero in march and so that's now been you know we're going on seven months now and they're recovering a little bit they'll be it will be higher this month and by the end of the year they could be between four hundred six hundred thousand barrels a day but even by june we estimated it over one hundred thirty million barrels have been taken out of the market and there has to come from somewhere either it either it comes from from a climbing stocks commercial stocks or government stocks or it means demand is lower than it would have been otherwise and why is that because the tightening of the market raises the price and so the price means some some people that would have bought oil buy less oil since they said you know it was ok but i don't know if it's savings if you go without it does that mean it may mean lower atmosphere no nobody's nobody even considering of trying to use treaties it was or is really what

we did use them i mean we used them in june and. we think that that present prevented a price spike at the time because it helped to supply the market we released sixty million barrels. thirty eight million barrels a. that was from government strategic stocks twenty two million barrels was released by allowing companies to hold less stocks companies have kind of like a bank has a reserve requirement companies sometimes are required by governments to hold stocks so release those who we relax those requirements some countries did and other countries sold oil into the market out of their strategic stocks and that that release was very well received by the market more than thirty more than ninety seven percent of the thirty eight million barrels that was offered from strategic stocks was picked up by the market and by the way that oil was sold at market prices so we weren't trying to undercut the market we were just trying to supply

the market at the prevailing price well you mentioned that libya is still a thing to regain its previous production but now it's ten thousand talk maybe that fifty thousand all know five hundred thousand five hundred has not one point six million. so how long will it take libya to to regain its one point since it is the possibility is what it's right and should do yeah well no but in a short answer is nobody knows then of what we've been saying is it will take many months and then even though they don't destroy the industry i mean it's no but there is some damage there is some damage and it has to be recovered and oil fields you know they can be damaged. you know just if they're neglected so we you know the damage needs to be assessed to the infrastructure to the fields but i'm cautiously optimistic that the oil fields could come back on. by the end of next year but

i don't want to make any such predictions simply because we just don't have enough information at this time so if it's going to take a while and one of the reasons why we now think we can get by with lower amounts is because it is ramping up a little bit also there were some other small outages around the world that it would now be. corrected but the main reason is that command is weaker than we thought it was economic forecasts are going down and so we're and we're not the only ones forecasters around the world are revising downward there are sumption sort of their forecasts for demand not only for this year but for two thousand and twelve as well so we think the market will stay in relative balance but. it's not going to be a good. year for the for the oil industry i think well actually if we talk in general about the arab spring it certainly. was welcomed by politicians in the major democracies we started with clinton out meucci was when

she saw the picture. of the last arab dictator lead being massacred and yeah he lives just the other day but the work it wasn't so much talking about that i was pretty was it well if it did disrupt the market and but you know markets can be disrupted in many ways and and. you never know where it's going to come from i mean the last time we use stocks it was because of a hurricane. you know the first time we use stocks it was because of international aggression this was because of civil civil dispute. in nigeria they've had a lot of problems with sabotage the pipeline so people trying to steal the oil. and it's also related with with civil problems there so there's there's just you never know where it's coming from but you do you need to always be. on guard for these kinds of disruptions and that's that's one of the reasons that the i.a.e.a. was created says richard just got to take that kind of direct to the international

climate. spotlight we'll be back shortly after the take a break so stay with us don't. i.

see. welcome back to the spotlight i'm al gore norman just a reminder my guest on the show today is richard jenkins deputy executive director

of the international energy agency richard roth let's talk about about russia's policy well there's lots of talk about the red direction gradual red direction of russian crude crude flows from for from the west towards asia and first of all to china how is it seen in the west could it be a reason for for a clash of interests between russia and the west china and the west no i really don't think so and this simple reason is that it's a global market these days the oil market is a worldwide and. china is where the action is that's where they're growing in consumption china and india are the two primary and the middle east would course they have their own oil so i think it's fully understandable in fact we paid it always city or oil demand will actually decline so it's a natural process china has the demand they're willing to pay the price as they get

the oil according to the latest see a report i quote the world faces a dire future unless a complete change of course is made to deal with the huge problem of surging energy demands and quit what does the are you a suggests doing in order to avoid the future well i mean you're talking about a dire future in the in the event of surging demand for fossil fuels i mean energy is life as population increases economic activity increases and even know we all hope that our ability to use our energy efficiently improves over time we know that rising and rising population as long as that happens means there's going to be rising energy demand the key question is how we supply satisfy that demand right now. in all countries or. almost all countries is heavily focused on fossil fuels and it is

a concern there is that fossil fuels are first of all there there are supplies limited nobody knows so when will run out but everybody knows that it's a fossil resource and therefore is limited in supply it took millions of years to create the oil and it's going to go away and in hundreds of years so it'll it'll in someday also it's a dirty fuel. production of oil and gas can be dirty consumption of it is certainly dirty in terms of normal air pollution but particularly i think what we're more warning about and that particular passage is that it is the prospect of climate change well speaking about again as well actually specialists local especially the russian people from gazprom they say they of course say that again as is more climate friendly than or oil. production and consumption of gas so the i.a.e.a. also says i quote that the world was potentially entering a golden age of gad's with production set to please my over fifty percent by twenty

thirty friday well do you think that that really gets is going to replace oil in the way that it will be good for you for a climate for the. gas competes more and more properly actually with coal and with and then with oil because because gas is used for power generation and in industry and those in those uses it if. it's much cleaner than coal and not only in terms of the normal air pollution that you think of but in in the key area of emissions of carbon dioxide. natural gas and it's far less about half as much by energy value was cold us so it is a much cleaner fuel then in coal and we sometimes talk of natural gas as a bridge bridging fuel because it can help us while we're still dependent on fossil fuels reduce emissions and. you know we're we have the capability of rely more on the advanced technologies and you will sources of energy and so on that are that

are not admitting at all but. we can't rely on on natural gas indefinitely because even natural gas doesn't get some c o two and so over time our energy demand will grow to the point where even natural gas could lead to global warming and that's why we talk about it as a transition for why i mentioned this quote from the i.a.e.a. report is that. we get an impression that he really remains rather skeptical about such things as that is as the renewable sources of energy this is why you're defending them guess and we'll forecast all based on an od they exist he said well first of all there are scenarios and this scenario has certain certain assumptions and one of the assumptions is that the consumers will welcome gas and that's that's very important right now gas is undergoing a renaissance because the prices come down but is that man increases the price will also increase and there and then they'll be rebalancing of markets so. but you know

we're it's not that we're skeptical of renewables it's that we just do the arithmetic we recognize that a good many countries particularly in western europe but other countries around the world including china have have targets for instance expansion of their renewable industries we feel that they are committed honestly committed to honoring those targets and they will do so but we also know a bit percent tremendous amount of investment in the existing system and and no country is going to give up that capital stock before it's time it would just be you know none of us are rich enough that we can afford just to throw away perfectly good equipment and that's one of the reasons that we sometimes worry about what we call technical or technology to lock in that if it hit the coal plants built today will be around for fifty years and so that's why. we think it's very important for countries that are serious about this to to. begin and to to actively support the

expansion of renewables but we just look at the at the size of the industry and the amount to the bottlenecks that exist and we figure that it would be very good if for a new post to expand say an average rate of ten percent a year and given a small role they play now that means it's going to take a long time before they dissipate place fossil fuels it's just a written text where we're very soon in the vendor eight that should leave let it be put in will be so the brits and the launching of this i think is favored promising the north three project which will unload the first gas supply from russia. underneath it not take you to germany this is this is really a great project well what do you think is the prevailing the prevailing sentiment in your sentiment in europe because of the one hand people want to want interrupted supply from the share that a steady supply to be sure in the supply but on the other hand they are worried

about the growing dependency. on gas prices so what will be programming really think you know i think i think you you catch it very well. they appreciate russia as a supplier i think most europeans think that russia has been a reliable supplier over the years in recent years there because of the issues with ukraine there's been some nervousness and i think anybody who looks at the data will realize that yes russia is dependent i mean yes europe is dependent on russia for supply but russia is also dependent upon europe for a demand to get there yeah and in fact russia has a smaller share of the european market then europe has of russia's exports so you can say. that russia is more dependent on europe and europe is dependent on russia except that the one forgoes money if it doesn't make the sale the other were for

goes heat in the winter time you'd rather have heating money so the important thing though is that they have to work together. you know no no commercial. transaction takes place and less it's beneficial for both the buyer and the so and that's the key i know what really gets most of the people especially the politicians the businessmen in you know they understand that what you say is that is that in case of mutual dependency your read dependency is just half of the problem your part is the bevan thinks is the other half of that this is a problem there's a there's a joke in the united states that if you if you owe the bank thousand dollars you can't pay your problem if you owe the bank a million dollars and you can pay the banks problem right so but why there isn't so happy about it about the south stream project why isn't europe ready ready to to to throw its weight would be one of the answers we get here in russia is it because

the ukraine is log he gets this russian project. not aware of any particular ukrainian lobbying on that score but i suppose it could be true i don't know. i'm just not a position where i would know about that but i think the main reason is normally when we look at increasing your security one of the simplest ways to do it is increase their diversity of your sources of supply and that can mean diversifying to routes from the same supplier because sometimes there is an interruption of a single route but the supplier will be perfectly happy to supply from another route but it's also a diversifying your suppliers and there's a whole host of countries in that southern area that are potential suppliers of gas to europe. particularly the caspian states but also countries like iraq in the future could be potential so there is a european i. idea of developing what they call the southern corridor and the i.a.e.a.

looks favorably on that but that doesn't necessarily have to come at the expense of other other projects we we don't endorse any particular commercial projects but we do look at diversification and the southern corridor is an important opportunity for europe to diversify and i think that's why they're looking at it but to put it into perspective in this golden age of gas study that you you mentioned we see basically an increment in european import demand because their production is declining even though their demand isn't growing very rapidly there import demand will grow on the order of two hundred twenty billion cubic metres per year. over the next twenty years that to put it in perspective that's equivalent to about six pipeline projects maybe a dozen large elegy plants so there's plenty of room eventually for all the projects we're talking about today is just a question of of the timing i was the ambassador american ambassador in kazakhstan when we were working on. and that's what i tried to explain to people there that

you know takuji han was not directed against an expansion of of the c.p.c. line. i told people that will eventually have both and here it is eleven years later and we have the baku jape jihan pipeline and the c.p.c. expansion spending been approved so i was right and i think that's what'll happen in the gas area in the future thank you very much for being with us was a pleasure having you on the share in just a reminder that my guest today was returned stephens executive director of how the international tennis contagious and that's not far from over if you want to have your say well maybe have someone in mind he is think i can include next time there's not to be a line i will not pass out he ducked and lets the spotlight into the movie back with more but my problem thought i was dealing with him and outside russia i thought then they are our team and so. thank you because.

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