it's a day of joy for some and regret for others it's twenty years since the collapse of the soviet union an opinion is still split on whether the break up was the best choice for its people it ended the cold war and produced more than a dozen new nations but also brought about many long term painful consequences. next up peter lavelle's crossed guests look at the causes of the soviet union's collapse and what lessons it has for today's world powers. oh and welcome to cross talk and peter all about twenty years ago a world historic event happened the soviet union came to an end and with it the conclusion of the cold war what is the soviet union's lasting legacy was it inevitable the u.s.s.r. would collapse and is the world a better place today. to

cross not the end of the soviet union i'm joined by geoffrey roberts here in the studio he is a historian and professor at the university college cork ireland his upcoming book is stalin's general the life of the go to you cough in new york across the steven cohen he's a professor of russian studies and history at new york university he's also author of soviet fates and lost alternatives from stalin ism to the new cold war and in washington we have richard cricket he is professor emeritus at the university of mary washington he's also author of the afghanistan question and the reset in u.s. russian relations all right gentlemen this is cross talk that means you can jump in anytime you want but first let's have a look at the last days of the u.s.s.r. . and number of dates are associated with the breakup of the u.s.s.r. the events that formally ended the existence of the world's largest socialist state fall in the twenty fifth and the twenty sixth of december it was on these dates

that the soviet union's first and last president mikhail gorbachev announced his resignation and the supreme council officially recognized the u.s. decides dissolution the end of the soviet union had devastating social economic effects set of ethnic conflict and to this day stirs debate over whether it could have been averted or carried out at lesser costs yes it was illegal but there would have been no legal way to do it. deeply traumatic for a lot of people not only in russia there was lots of turmoil almost of the sort that would have occurred in the war. today many see the process of disintegration as spending over a much longer period of time and involving a range of factors including corruption detrimental reliance on energy resources stagnating khana me and the disillusionment with the socialist ideology. there are several events that constitute the breakup was in my view the most harmful blow to the framework of god is this or was dealt in the course of those political and

economic reforms then there was the oldest coup and then the final blow came from the yeltsin crowd joke and trio the meeting between the three leaders of russia ukraine and belarus on december eighth brought the famous villa vision accords and established the commonwealth of independent states but by that time signs of breakdown were already ubiquitous the most amazing was to be one thousand nine hundred ninety or in one thousand nine hundred one the u.s.s.r. had accumulated a set of serious problems there were attempts to repair the system which started after one thousand nine hundred five and failed to want to throw another just imagine driving a car and trying to fix the engine and the wheels while it's moving twenty years on progress in positive change have certainly benefited some in the new russia but clearly not all according to recent opinion poll by the levada center more than fifty percent of russians say they regret the breakup and think it could have been prevented. stephen cohen i'm going to go to you first in and new york you

know it's over over the last two weeks or so i've been interviewing a number of people the principles that were involved in the dissolution of the soviet union and i find really quite remarkable the different points of view here so i'm going to ask you a very simple question what is the most important event that led to the. dissolution of the soviet union because over the last ten days like i said i've come across so many different answers. the most important event as clear as introduction of democratizing reforms in the late one nine hundred eighty s. if that had not happened the soviet union would still exist today ok so jeffrey here in the studio reform collapse the soviet union. i'm not so sure about i think the important as far as to collapse the soviet union was deal was coup or the attempted coup which we can go because of position and strength and. power. in the opportunity to precipitate the breakup i don't think global political from is necessarily. how to lead to the break up of the solving i think those reforms

necessarily or very likely to lead to the end of the soviet common system by don't think that society has to break up with the soviet union so richard where do you come in on that ok because i mean to this day in in the new russia there is an argument in who is responsible for the breakup of the soviet union was that boris yeltsin looking for power at any cost and he chose the russian federation or got a bunch of it and got a bunch of fending off a a political rival and that was. well i think these two are interconnected and i would also make a point perhaps is a minority point of view and the nationalities question was also played a very large role in this if the soviets had crossed a little indian independence movement on bloody sunday january thirteenth thousand nine hundred ninety one they would have prevented the series of events that led to the collapse of the soviet union. i was in and delirious and i after. the

events of their independence day i saw many people from many of the republics there and they were watching what was going to happen a little when you were lithuanian is going to get away with this and what they did in effect is they encourage lots of people including russian nationalists to challenge the power elite in moscow ok you know you stephen it's very interesting i mean we come across countless in the number of times of the the rivalry between yeltsin and got a bunch of but ultimately it was it was nationalism really one of the driving forces or did reform allow nationalists to to express themselves more because at the end of the day you know we the soviet union interestingly enough created these solid. sovereignties of them but within the soviet union the republics and that created in itself a new form of local nationalism so the success of the soviet union it again was one of its failures peter because we've known each other so long and because i like you

i tried to be very brief and my first answer let me add a word to the syria this. everybody's an awfully good day ok. the serious story and begins with cause and effect yes nationalism played a role yes the economy played a role yes all sorts of things played a role but those factors would not have come into play at play if gorbachev had not opened the door by democratizing the soviet political system that's why i gave that answer to your question that that was the precipitating factor let me make one other quick point it's very hard especially in the united states to discuss the end of the soviet union because it's laden with myth first the soviet union did not collapse everybody using that word but it didn't collapse it was dismantled very that's a very different process here and secondly there is the view there is

a view in the united states and maybe elsewhere that there was no alternative to what happened twenty years ago on december eighth when yeltsin in the others went secretly clandestinely to a hidden hunting lodge in belo ruse and signed the documents there were many alternatives many alternatives and thirdly the myth it's already been mentioned that the end of the soviet union was peaceful and avoided yugoslavia like scenario it wasn't peaceful hundreds of thousands if not millions of people have been killed or displaced or brutalized as a direct result of the end of the soviet union and that process is not over so if we could have a little reality we could have a little analysis of richard if i go to you real quick here i mean fair enough i agree with what we just heard dismantling the soviet union i agree with that but again i want to go back to an issue this is not what good of a child wanted to do ok that wasn't his goal. well you know i think that that case that stephen makes just doesn't. do you could not change the system within the

system as it existed it was doing this failure and it's fortunate that. in the final analysis the number of people that were killed were relatively small in number. i don't think it could have been avoided i just think these basic system was rotten and it was going to collapse that's the bottom line and that's what happened and that's the important thing what did happen it collapsed ok and i'm going to characterize the writing of ways all right i do get some crossfire here jeffrey go ahead props i can come in the group was a relatively peaceful breakup a lot of other selves. rather than directly as a result or as part of the process of regular bug i grew stephen i don't see why the soviet union. needed to collapse i think it's quite possible given a different set of political circumstances different choices by this that some kind

of multinational soviet union type state could have survived now i think it wouldn't have been a communist or or a socialist state it would be very very different been the soviet system as such but i see no reason that all. gorbachev could have actually succeeded in the least one of these goals which was to keep the soviet union to together it will be on the different but let me make let me make an observation here and this is when we talk about these things of course there are very complex subjects in there so you can say very much in terms of these sound bites that were shooting at each other but the reality is that the soviet elite came to two conclusions one is they did not have the solution to their societies problems and two they no longer had the right to rule and the people in history so for protests they were relatively small number but i would venture to say that a large percentage of those people were their kids and they weren't prepared to

kill their kids fortunately steven already coming out of that because what are the other alternatives ok mr alternatives what was magic. well what was missed as the as someone has said is the possibility of preserving the soviet union on a voluntary basis which would in considerably fewer republics but let's introduce some facts into the analysis again in one thousand nine hundred one there were secessionists nationalist movements only in the three small baltic republics georgia and possibly western ukraine if you take all that territory all those people all those resources it was five percent of the soviet total there was plenty to work with it would have taken a long time it probably would have been a confederated state would it have lasted we don't know but that was the alternative nine republics prior to the pollution signed a draft of

a new union treaty. excepting just that one other thing and it's very important for me because i rebel against it in the united states the word doomed and pre-determined simply is not part of my a storable thinking it will longs to the realm of theology you believe it even let me jump in here we're going to go to a break i'll let you finish when we come back from a break ok after a short break we'll continue our discussion on the collapse of the u.s.s.r. state. and. wealthy british science.

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ice cream that's going to be heaven. in the flight see up close and below the ice on our t.v. . and you can. still. welcome back your awestruck i'm peter about to mind you we're talking about the end of the u.s.s.r. . and you can. start. ok jeff and i could go to you here in the studio i really i like a lot what do went to stephen is saying here about alternatives because everyone says it was it was an effort of all but i mean if the soviet union were to have survived it would have been a communist soviet union it would have been something very different and once you have forces a nationalist forces unleashed you think the russians really wanted to have the rest of the baggage because to this day i mean the russians feel that you know the

other the republics were were a burden to them i mean at least economically speaking and because of the lack of any kind of now. in our policy in this country today there's even kind of a you know get keep them out attitude so i mean it's evolved a lot in twenty years yeah i'm not i mean broadly agree with what stephen says that might be because i spent the last couple days studying his his book there's one thing missing for me i feel and i think that peter alluded to it there and that's the whole role dimension of of russian nationalism seems to me to get the nationalities question was absolutely central to the break up of the dismantlement of the u.s.s.r. bacha the key force in it was was russian nationalism was. yeltsin's russia's challenge to solve it you know there was a hole that was at that well just one event that was a whole lot process for nine hundred ninety nine one in a sense i mean you can see the dismantlement of the u.s.s.r. . as

a kind of an expression of russian nationalism as an assertion of russian national identity now the question i asked myself is here i agree with stephen that there was a feasible noncommunist alternative soviet union maybe even them a goal which was in a ship but could turn out to survive the challenge of russian nationals i'm often asked big question mark ok i can see when you're being asked a question go ahead. well i think it's a terrific question and i think putin is trying to give us the answer today with his proposal for a eurasian union now if you notice what's changed in the last twenty years you're absolutely right peter and the others mentioned this that in one thousand nine hundred ninety one the russian leadership held led by us and felt burdened by the economic subsidies it was giving to central asia and the other republics to day the putin leadership thinks that it needs those markets it needs that reintegration with central asia with bella ruse and with you crying but putin is promising there

won't be the political control that was represented by the soviet union so we will see how this eurasian idea of putin which i think he's going to make part of his presidential campaign again twenty years after the fact how it plays out in these republics you know things change and i mean remember what happened in one nine hundred ninety s. very interesting both the communists yeltsin and the rule and the communist party seized known russian nationalism to use against gorbachev the communist party demanded its own russian communist party which had not existed and you know since seized on this russian parliament and its sovereignty issues so you had a picture movement against gorbachev both claiming to represent you know i wanted it in reality they didn't represent nationalism ok richard you want to jump in there go ahead well i mean i talking about the situation today i mean to russian foreign minister you just issued in an outrageous statement that once again that the baltic countries voluntarily joined the soviet union and that conjures up the

image of a right wing coup in the soviet you in a russia today and that's a possibility that could have happened in russia back in one nine hundred ninety one and it's very very disturbing because it doesn't make any sense the baltic countries are like they're like. canaries and the mind ok the toxic. threats that are made from moscow these are small states they don't have a great deal of clout but they have a lot of friends in the west and it's not in rush's vital self interest to demonize them that way and i don't understand that and that's the thing that's scary that we all want to see russian democracy survive and we know i mean having our future i mean russia i think in terms of the baltic republics the russia we're talking about the collapse of the soviet twenty years ago not today but i mean there's a lot of ethnic russians in the baltic republics and there are

a lot of their rights are being denied there as being members of the european countries being part of the european union here but i think i'd change a lady who actually one of the soviet union jeffrey so i mean if if the soviet union had eggs continued on i mean would because the c.i.s. steven was on this program we get on the c.i.s. i mean it really isn't turning into an alternative ok because not everyone has interlocking interests here so i mean that alternative of staying together probably wouldn't have worked out either i think it's a matter of political will of political choice and also the particular circumstances ok the so soviet union collapsed or was broken up twenty years ago. i wouldn't put it beyond the bounds of possibility that we could be some kind of reunification or some kind of union. involving russia and neighboring countries particularly if if there's some dramatic events in europe if the euro zone collapses if the you collapses i think that those kind of conditions then political

perspectives on the some kind of multi-national union on the territory of former soviet union peer to peer very differently you know stephen if we can go back to you i mean early in one thousand ninety one there was a referendum to keep the soviet union together but by the after the august coup things had changed so much i mean is that tell us about the pace of change because . of months you know there's a people change their mind ok i mean if we when we pick a particular look at places like the baltic republics which goes even way back before that tobacco plant even in one thousand nine hundred eight but then there were staring in ukraine i mean it was that was the coup itself the catalyst is finally closed the shop. well you're certainly right on the first point those of us who were living in moscow at that time were saying to each other gee a weeks change seems like a decade of change things were moving so fast and the and the rules of the

political game were changing you know soon this decision to move gorbachev out of the kremlin to occupy the chrome and so to speak was an absolutely overwhelming factor in all this but remember one other thing which is kind of interesting what happened in one thousand nine hundred one. when against what was the objective process and economic thinking in the west that large areas in markets should integrate what happened in one thousand nine hundred one as you blew apart the largest common market in the world you divorced suppliers and consumers and the result was the economic catastrophe that came over not only russia but all the former soviet republics most of them in the one nine hundred ninety s. now you're seeing a rethinking of that ironically at the very moment that the european community may be falling apart which reminds us i should marches to its own drummer richard you want to jump in there go right there yeah i want to respond to what's a. possible alternative to what happened and that would be that russia turned

inward for god all of the external countries that it was involved in because they don't have attachment to russia in other words spilled in russia and that's what putin has to do today he has the stop demonizing foreign countries and focus on russia's problems russia is a big country it's has talented people it is contributed and we need to see that you know richard i should point out to my viewers here is that when the soviet union was ended it was the these central asian republics that lamented it the most because they like the subsidies that they got from moscow so i mean demonizing countries i mean russia has its own foreign policy don't deem a country for having its own foreign policy in defending its own interests jeffrey we're getting close to the end it could be getting close to the end of the program stephen you want to jump in there. well i just wanted to remind everybody that the three republics that dissolved the soviet union were the three slavic republics.

russia belo roofs and ukraine and kazakhstan is about a third or a half i'm not sure which slavic now remember solzhenitsyn's famous idea that a slavic union should replace the soviet union there was something very nationalist about this but non russians shouldn't be in the union and so if we think about alternatives that idea was floated. to do and manske and one thousand nine hundred one then there would be a slavic the slavic people would unite the problem is the problem is economics dictate integration and the resources being held in central asia for example are exceedingly important ok jeff or you want to reply i just want to completely disagree with richard he seems to be saying what we need is more russian nationalism more russian isolation of been absolute disaster for russia and for the world what we need is more russia. we need multination ism and internationals and

we don't need more nationalism richard you want to find out. well i'm just saying that wasn't possible alternative i'm not saying that would be exerted on i think it was a pause on see if in nine hundred ninety one and it's an even worse alternative to the ok stephen i want to ask you is there is the world a better place but the end of the soviet union we're not allowed to discuss that in the united states can arise but i mean what i actually like to answer in moscow last night. last night preparing an article i'm writing i try to make a list of international pluses and minuses that ensued from the end of the soviet union and all i do is i asked my readers a question if the if a reforming soviet union democratizing soviet state and continue to exist would there have been in the last twenty years and i give this question to you. less international terrorism less fanatical nationalism less ideological zealotry less global deregulation less nuclear proliferation except exactly except and as i think

about it i hard to and i find it hard to imagine a way to say that there would not have been less jeffrey when you think about it it was a plus and it was a plus for the right richard go ahead richard it was a plus it was a plus no question about it and it was a plus for the russian people and it was a reply first for people who lived under the autocracies for years russia is a rich country but they had a ridiculous system that just cannot work and now these people have a second chance and we wish them well ok we're going to differing of you the last word on the program good luck because it's too early to sell to say i forgot as of this moment i grieve with stephen there's a lot of the science against the breakup of the soviet the one thing i personally i regret. to fight off the soviet union as a multinational state but that's because i wanted to nationalise a multinational as though those calm the countries which bring together people

different people different nations together which attempt it's gratian to separate a common identity as the whole kind of pluralistic mix that's my my ideals so to that extent i think that the break up of the soviet union i was about. this is my father what i don't think that the fight in the old days all for terry and company system was about if your freedom is a good thing i think it was it was good to democracy i think it's all right ahead of time here ok we'll have to let history judge many thanks to my guests today in washington in new york and here in the studio and thanks to our viewers for watching us here i can see you next time and remember. the least explain to me is. and i'm touched by my.

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thank you for joining us four thirty here in moscow and parent erasure with a quick look at your headlines dozens of new civilian deaths reported in syria as the arab league appears up to monitor the implementation of a peace plan but hundreds of mercenaries from abroad are allegedly planning for regime change the regime change there the u.n. estimates more than five thousand civilians have been killed in syria since march while the regime claims its biting an armed insurgency funded from abroad.