in the euro your day and the write down is going to something like could be four to seven forty if you're lucky thirty if you're unlucky that it any rational six b. is a country defaulting on its debts and whether technically that is or whether it take it seems to me to be not that relevant because once you've dealt with greece ok you try and have to put a fireball behind that but people may say look if i'm not going to get my money back on greece why should i learn to portugal why should i lend to spain why should i learn to italy. later you know as well just a bit later today the kaiser report taking a swipe at the politicians and bankers who want doing enough to reassure the markets and the people that recovery is around the corner. the governor bank of england urged against despair because all crises come to an end eventually he says he looks pretty miserable doesn't think he's a dog like usually very telling people don't despair you don't look like you're about to top yourself you tried to have

a smile and butter like clown nose on really like a burner he's usually got the clown those are always delivering bad economic numbers verve and kangas got that british kind of in the bag have blitzed on general luck which is not fooling anybody and of course the u.k. economy is contracting why because the debt in the banking sector continues to expand and nobody's doing anything about that mervyn king wake up. bring it up today with more of the day's top of him surrounds you to resume talks with u.n. nuclear inspectors this weekend in the first discussions of their kind of more than three years the country's also allowing a senior u.n. weapons expert to be part of the mission iran's nuclear program is the main reason behind the rising tension with the west the most recent moves have seen the e.u. adopt a complete ban on the radio while exports from july but to radstowe considering heading off the sanctions by cutting supplies to europe as early as next week

global policy consultant got a mommy told me that by threatening to turn off a tower for rallies hoping to soften the impact of this century. the calculus from iran's perspective is going to be if there's a preamp to make cutting exports see ford the july first date that the e.u. has set for cutting the exports and iran preemptively cuts it's three four hundred thousand barrels with exports to the e.u. will it be able to drive prices up enough by doing that to offset for that you know right now what is going on with iran is that the there is an existential threat to the government and quite frankly from the u.s. perspective i don't think there's a lot of hope that these sanctions will actually get you right to stop its nuclear program think the real unwritten objective here is quite frankly in a column by different name but it's regime change ultimately they want to put as much pressure that as they can on this government elsewhere around the world tonight the supposed leader of the violent nigerian islam is said before harlem's

threatening to kill more security personnel and kidnap their families and in order recording it also accuses president barack obama of waging war on islam and we could go the group killed more than one hundred eighty people during a gun and bomb attack in a northern town in new york and one sharia law more widely enforced wrote nigeria. police in senegal fired tear gas at demonstrators rally against the court's decision to allow their president to run for a third term protesters then threw rocks broke barricades and started fires the president's currency was in question because the constitution changed back in the year two thousand just after he took office to impose a two term limit of the leeway to believes that the law doesn't apply to him though because he was elected before he came into effect. the ski slopes of sochi replaced for the next winter olympics now comes the test to make sure they meet world class standards the russian resorts facilities are hosting their first ski is

in organizers hope it will be downhill from here as r.t. that is below ski explain. it's no weekend called in the caucasus mountains but it's the hardest time for ski fans many like this couple even keen chromos far as say period for the season's grand opening in sochi you can see mrs now that. it's thirty snowing a month ago so much snow wanted to write so badly and now we had this. super this is rosa khutor a brand new resort just off the black sea coast with a number of plans to attract ski fans who might otherwise prefer a winter break in france or switzerland kilometers those tracks throws up but we'll be able to compete with many european resorts you know i mean six to ten thousand tourists will be able to ski here to show your work and seasonal warm weather left a few foreign destinations a little high and dry but then staff here it was i who got to became snowed under with work as skiers sort of new resorts just to look around you we can go for

beautiful. believed and everyone enjoyed. very positive feedback this morning and that's. you know for us but they're also cudos biggest test is yet to come in february and march just a bounce for the two thousand and fourteen winter olympics it will mean more is to be strictly on this but for now they're making the most of the snow the freedom and even the romance the russian winter green as their snow is still up but you said it was supposed to give my land down the hill so if you'll excuse me. but like. our t. sochi. the snowy slopes might bring skiers together but off fluctuating weather continues to divide others in the international community let's talk about that laurie oftenest asked people in new york how far they're willing to go to cool down global warming.

today legislators are introducing more and more bills to help curb the effects of global warming what are you willing to do to help out this week let's talk about that would you be willing to blow dry your hair anymore yes that i'd be willing to do would you be willing to drive a your clothes on the line and never use the drag machine i don't know about that so it's about it depends would you be willing to change your behavior like they are walking to any destination that's under two miles instead of driving like what i'm doing today is that yes yeah yeah yeah absolutely absolutely the best idea i've heard so far well it's good what about showering for under a minute. i'm always. pretty much broke. dave's money don't become the person to lose the clock on the marker or do you think most people are willing to change their daily behavior even though i'm a little proud to call it selfish you know they don't really care about the planet

until until it affects them personally and financially that's the world we live in whether or not you're willing to change your energy consumption habits now the bottom line is you might just have to in the future if global warming continues to progress. you know what we got online for you tonight about a dog called we have the world covered there right now as well the to run a saurus is terrorizing the toast truth this is what's creating visitors striking a natural history museum but some of the kids clearly want the bit less vivid for so we've got the pretty story online also. looked up and overlooked and arrested for drunk driving when they're held in solitary confinement and did not like doctors for two years without trial these stories online from us r t v dot com. also don't forget to give our

tribe your reports and shows when you want them my name is kevin owen here in moscow my with you tonight i'll return with this as world news headlines in just a few moments. the book on the money with the business of russia is the be. the

big. it was shot four times in total and i want to use your word. sorry of the boys are still in my body. then people should be allowed to defend themselves wherever they are guns in the hands of law abiding decent people are not a problem national rifle association was a group of basically retired military police love to shoot

holes in i'm sorry if you know that the bullet comes out here and this makes it go bang and if what's in front of here is going to die that's all the training you really really need raise your hand if you know something's been shot ok place to live without one of the philadelphia lawyers over streets. in jail live without a gun hopefully we will never have to use the weapons for self defense but we should be prepared for the full class including the teacher as a close. seventeen students and say that i am one of seven or so. we have seen the damage it has done to our environment more than the calls what the poor props we do not want anymore new g.m.

olds. our core system is just that was a dismal experience and i'm just. just appalled but that's allowed to go on. eating this unfortunately because we don't know what's in it there's no labeling there for it being used like on the board to experiment you could be used as guinea . will no more questions than we have answers guards. like. you know sometimes you see a story and it seems so you think you understand it and then you glimpse something else you hear or see some other part of it and realize that everything is. i'm tom harpur welcome to the big picture.

this is our team live from moscow the top stories with me kevin russia slams the new u.n. draft resolution on syria is unacceptable saying it's targeting regime change and pave the way possible for intervention the arab league's also halting its observer mission in syria over the upsurge in violence there. protestors in poland vowed to continue fighting the international piracy pact and the politicians who support the tourist trade agreement activists say it allows governments to police the internet

under the guise of protecting copyright. and yet another blow to the struggling euro zone is five nations credit. scores get cut including spade and they silly the leaders and key finance experts are struggling to try to find a solution to the deepening debt crisis at the world economic forum. next hour he's on the money program exploring whether it's risky to invest in russia right now amid the presidential election plus how to keep the blood pumping in the moscow markets. welcome to the money where the business of russia is business i'm peter all of our russian equities how they fare this year what sectors and companies are attractive is the russian market a bastion of stability in a turbulent world and what about the issue of political risk. to discuss this i'm joined by the term i keep of he is head of macroeconomic

analysis and research at unicredit bank russia been heiress he is the editor in chief of business new europe we also have david cranfield he's a partner in c.m.s. and simon sent him fletcher he is a portfolio manager with renaissance asset managers ok out of time i want to go to you first in china it's the year of the dragon will this be the year of the bull for russian equities we think so we expect quite a significant growth rate of the russian equities for this year at about two hundred twenty five percent or something like that. with things of this year can be quite strong in terms of its fundamentals as well ok then when he. i agree i think the market is extremely cheap and why cheap well because it was only a december ok right a cheap it's cheap i mean for a number of reasons i mean of course we were doing our outlook and never has been so confusing i mean you've got a potential meltdown in europe and at the same time domestically this sort of resurgence of political risk such as it is consequently the investors have all

stepped back and waiting to see how it plays out and again with the presidential elections in march i think a lot of people are waiting until that's passed and then then they should come back because if you look at the fundamentals in terms of price to earnings it's very very cheap it hasn't been seen by well there are a lot of unknowns but i mean if you're if you're fairly confident there's not going to be a mother in europe western europe then you know you're looking at minimum twenty five percent and some of the other brokerages talking sixty percent returns this year and it depends on the you know if you compare it to oil prices ok you get your covering to me. like about the euro you know is only an oil prices what about you david i mean you optimistic about russian equities this year and i guess maybe compared to what i think i'm optimistic this year i mean if you look at last year there was a falloff in inward investment in the second part of the year but in the first half inward investment was very strong we've done some analysis of emerging market now

shows on a number of deals basis there was a there was a very good climb during set in the first half of last year so it shows that the fundamentals are good interest in russia is there and although there was a telling off in the second half which may be for a variety of reasons and probably to do with western european sentiment largely there's no reason to suppose that that that that trajectory wouldn't continue this year once as others have said the political stability position becomes clearer it will talk about political stability a little bit later simon i mean when you look at the emerging market world where do you put russia's top bottom in the middle. well i mean russia is not my island i mean it is without well within the globe the global economic sphere and should the rest of the world i mean you mentioned europe take a tanking russia washer will be severely affected russia is unique in. the global markets perceive it to be. much more of a corporate governance discount from the political risks of often seem to be huge

whereas i fundamentally agree with ben you know the the opportunities for russia are quite large i mean we see fundamentals giving to a pointer to a large cyclical rebound ok i do too much if we were to look at sectors and companies what sectors do you think investors are most interested in this year in the equity market and i know there's a lot of issues like oil prices and things like that but a bit taken in consideration all these issues what sectors are attractive well preferred these are sectors that are oriented on the mastic demand so first of all this just telecommunications this is because you're a cyclical. we are more neutral on banks. where positive funds are going to cations are up then what about you well looking across what everyone's saying for this year is very much going to be a year of two hogs and in the beginning of the year while europe deals with its problems all the banks are recommending defensive stocks you know things like that are not affected by crisis like you know consumer what have you and then the second

half of the year should be when we sense go forward you know go back to the fundamentals and then people are talking about value stocks growth stocks things like spare bank. redisplay companies that should do well as the economy picks up but more importantly as the sentiment you know there's this fear there's dogging everything at the moment starts to fade so you see an easter is you know rush of market is extremely seasonal so typically around easter there's a switch when the new money comes in the new allocations come in and the economy should pick up from that point and i think everyone will be switching but it also. the point we'll see fresh money coming in from outside the camp david what do you think about that i actually came across the same thing everyone's looking at this year's two halves ok wait and see first half second half should be a lot more growth what you think about that i think the wait and see thing is an obvious factor for this year because of the because of the environment we're in i think that the consumer market is i think widely recognized as being the big

opportunity there is consumer debt inflation is is very very steady coming down so i think that the consumer market is going to be the main opportunity . ok so i mean i mean it when you look at what's going on here i mean you're talking about the domestic story here are you just as confident about that i mean again all things being equal we don't when we look at the eurozone we look at the problems with the u.s. economy and we also have an election in the united states well i mean the great thing is i mean the election cycles all over the world we've got to do us we have china obviously we have russia here domestically i mean one of the things that i think we are overlooking is russia has the largest loan growth across across any country and we have spare bank with our returns on equity that are phenomenal in comparison with not just russian russian competitors but international competitors so the sectors i mean there are some really exciting sectors to to invest in short term as well as over the over the over the whole year and from from from

a wait and see perspective i think we have not overlooked the iranian oil situation and obviously with any spike in oil prices is only beneficial to the russian market as we've seen we had severe outflows of capital last year. have been in flows of capital into gems recently but russia as our underperformed in that of the flows have not been as large as they should have been on a pro rata basis you know it's interesting so when you when you would jump in there because i would say that i was going to ask everybody you know all price what does that have to do with russia prospects for this year go ahead i mean david mentioned before that there's a prospect of a crash in europe which would bring oil prices down which would hurt russia but i think the chances of an oil spike are also quite high i mean you've got unrest in nigeria you've got growing tension in the middle east in the persian gulf and if that gets worse then it's going to send oil the other way i mean it remains in a huge or no having said that the oil demand continues to rise although it's going to be relatively flat we're at about ninety million barrels a day but although you see demand in europe is already falling from forty to about

thirty five that is being compensated by the new world where they're up to you know to forty five to fifty already and so the new world has to overtake and at the. end of the day this crisis is a european crisis in other words the emerging markets are continuing to grow there we're continuing to consume more and more oil and this will give support to the price of this in areas where oil goes to sixty seventy dollars i don't see it i mean i can see. your review probably won't let that happen oh they're going to break even my grocery of at least eighty dollars and i mean that puts a fairly sort of on it so we know it's going to affect the market there is some downside but it's not a very big drop where is the upside is houston but what about oil prices i mean bentley gave a very good i would say middle case where we have an oil spike that would have a drop in price here but i mean what prices russia need to keep its equity markets

point well for a cost for this year is one hundred twenty dollars per barrel word that's high yeah the pretty high and the reason why we expect the eye to fall on one hand you're completely right but. there are lots of positive signs from the coming from the china and other countries they continue to grow pretty fast however the the reason why we think that the growth rate of the market could not be that higher as could be expected is that we have lots of issues here inside the country first of all if the european union is the largest trading partner of russia so any kind of problems there will definitely lead to issues in the local markets on one hand on the other hand what we see here is that the growth rate in the oil does not automatically mean growth rate of walk all markets because for instance in two thousand and eleven we saw a pretty huge of care but all of the counted eighty four and plus billion dollars

so this is one of the highest numbers we saw ever in this country and this special this is one of the more than comparable with what we saw in tucson eight in the but it's very interesting david if i can go to you i mean is the oil price issue for russia's equities and economy in general over rated or under rated. i think there's a i don't think there was a direct connection between it was obviously very important for us in the g.d.p. because it mainly accounts for that. i think that it did i wouldn't think it was a major impact on the stock prices in general if it is a major factor for russia russia's g.d.p. which is largely linked to that i think there's general confidence in the in the price in the oil price. ok so i mean i think i think it's interesting because i get going back to what ben said i mean he's kind of even it out when we look at the risk around the world but while prices but because of growing demand it's good him it balances out more or less right now i see it they think the oil issue should be really kind of lowered is a level issue of importance when we look at russian equities for this year well i

mean obviously we have. russian government trying to diversify away from oil and gas i think when the rest of the world looks at russia they automatically lead to the oil price and it's that perception of russia being our oil and gas cut country that now if only for oil prices declining then there's a there's a lack of confidence in investing into into russia which need them we need to move away from that obviously you know we've seen the rise of the russian consumer and the russian consuming comparison with their own brazil india or or china spends huge amount per person i mean the average g.d.p. consumption is over eleven thousand dollars here now whereas china china or india is far below that level when you would jump in there. we should remember the russian stock market tends to track the oil price fairly closely and we're in a unique position here for the first time that the stock market is trading behind the oil price in other words the implies the price of oil of something around sixty

dollars in other words stocks are priced in a huge crash in europe already sort of oil prices for it's already priced it which means is that reality closes between the prices if i were to continue our discussion of russian equities after a short break we'll continue stay with r.t. . my. eyes are shot four times in total and i want to use that word. sorry of the boys who are still in my body. and people should be allowed to defend themselves wherever they are gone from the hands of law abiding decent people are not a problem national rifle association was

a group of basically retired military police or love to shoot holes in i'm sorry if you know that the bullet comes out here and this makes it go bang and if what's in front of here is going to die and that's all the training you really really need raise your hand if you know something's been shot ok place to live without one of the philadelphia owners or the streets. in jail without a gun hopefully we will never have to use the weapons for self defense but we should be prepared the full class including the teacher as a close. seventeen students as safety and one of seven or so. you know how sometimes you see a story and it seems so you think you understand it and then you glimpse something else you hear or see some other part of it and realize everything you thought you knew you don't know i'm tom harpur welcome to the big picture.

welcome back to on the money i'm peter lavelle let's continue our discussion on the outlook of russian equities in two thousand and twelve but first let's have an overview of the russian market. analysts are up to about the future mood on the russian equity markets experts predict that the main economic indicators will reach all time highs as the markets get back on track for steady growth in two thousand and twelve however not everything is rosy for the russian market after the recent protests on the back of the parliamentary election some investors pulled an estimated eighty billion dollars from the country that is equivalent to about ten percent of the russian markets diminished capitalization as

a result the ruble denominated my cigs has fallen by more than ten percent and the dollar's nominated m.s.c.i. russia index has fallen by thirteen percent since the election traditionally cheap because of its reliance on oil and minerals explodes russia has grown even cheaper still its equities and i'll fetch in less than five times earnings however such low price multiples like t. mean that major sell offs won't fall and as long as international oil prices every roughly one hundred dollars a barrel russia will continue to find itself in a better position than most the combination of high oil prices and rising government expenditures suggests that russian stocks could be set to rally next year. we should make the russian market convenient for equity issuers and create technologies that will make investment easy and convenient for the domestic investor in this sense the exchange should become a center of self-regulation and involvement in the establishment of financial

markets together the stock markets of brazil russia india and china have all the s. and p. five hundred index by more than four to one in the past decade and their economies have grown four times faster than america's and stop contras to russia and the other breaks the us and european economies are presumably headed for another year of stock market volatility high unemployment banking industry up people and we causing a crater that. can be something for a floor. in places like russia because of difficulties nearest united states and europe clearly chosen twelve is likely to be very careful will be ready for that because the going to be able to not only economic but also political certainty in both e.u. and the states are ready to lecture us in that state in france and other places is one of the few fully functional economies left in europe now she's poised to see foreign investors eagerly jump in the balance on the stop.