if you can. follow me and welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle crude blockade and the turning off of the taps as the united states and the e.u. again sanction iran iran is also threatening to impose punitive steps against the western powers are we witnessing merely a game of chicken or a potential bomb ticking before the advent of war. can. start. to cross like

iran and its oil i'm joined by john robson in ottawa he is a columnist and commentator for a sun news network and invited professor at the university of ottawa in london we have to settle me he is an international oil economist and technical expert with the united nations industrial development organisation and in irvine we go to our bankers our day he is a professor of engineering at the university of california irvine all right gentlemen this is crosstalk that means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage it but first ok let's go to john robson in and london the you pushing forward july first will cut off all oil exports into the european union from iran and it is calling the strategy to avoid chaos in the middle east isn't it just actually the reverse this will create even more chaos in the middle east this is counterproductive and actually it really actually provoke iran into taking some kind of offensive move that it has into that to date. well the thing is iran is

already taking as many offensive moves as it can possibly manage the fear of provoking aggressive regimes is one that's paralyzed the west throughout the twentieth century with terrible consequences i think the time for a showdown with iran is now rather than after it gets a working nuclear bomb so why worry what the sanctions is there not enough they're a substitute for decisive action but they're certainly a step in the right direction nato what do you think about that it's a step in the right direction. no he's absolutely wrong they're not working on weapons the i.a.e.a. hasn't said that and it's definitely increasing the temperature in the gulf persian gulf area and in my opinion in the u.s. congress and the united states government basically wants to have it at the certain temperature but not to boil over they want to have the tightening of the rope around the government of iran but at the same time they don't want to have any particular military action over there and so therefore it's

a very balancing act at this point and that's why the joint operation with israel was cancelled there are different reasons for that but certainly they want to bring the temperature down to the level of simmering ok no pain is good because it keeps the price so if i can go back to i mean but isn't that kind of dangerous i mean that's sitting over a tipping point i mean if it's now you get to a small mistake and then the consequences are enormous go ahead. so they cannot pat themselves on the back because as you mentioned correctly it's very dangerous because one major minor mistake could turn into a huge problem and also as you know these wars can start easy but they cannot be stopped so it's a very dangerous position and people are usually the election purposes john when you want to jump in there. did you say iran is not working on nuclear weapons that's what he said yes there are no reports i.a.e.a. reports does not say that maybe you know something we don't know but anything that

is publicly available not privately owned by the intelligence community the things that are publicly available and even the sixth intelligence organizations in two thousand and seven and eight on two thousand and eleven. o'clock were at the head of the i.c. basically told the congress that there is no effort on the on the weaponize ation at this time ok gentlemen that's what he said you can find a quote on then. money so let me if in london if i can go to you what about this oil regime they do could you come into place here what you buy with the european union wants to do and what iran is threatening to do today is monday and its discussion of cutting off oil to. the european union are you doing the right thing or is it a bluff i don't think it is a glove i think it is a defensive measure that they could force the european union to look for it somewhere else at

a higher price because the global oil market is so tight so trying to fly five hundred to six hundred thousand but is which are imported by the european union will not be as easy job furthermore the gulf producers including saudi arabia i'm not in a position to all of said the loss of that oil because they don't have any spare capacity to be able to provide for the european union so we are in a very. difficult situation with the oil in the market very very tight ok john if i can go back to you i mean really what this is all about we had tim geithner going around the world last month getting countries to cut oil imports from iran and most countries are not going to go along with it what is really the plan is it really about nuclear iran's nuclear program or is it really about regime

change for over thirty years now what after four sets of sanctions this is the silver bullet right this is the one that's finally to take the regime down is that what the plan is. well i think that that probably is the plan for the simple reason that the iranian regime is extremely of not just an aggressive and you know the idea well they're not working on nuclear weapons they're just building centrifuges in a fortified compounds away under mountains and enriching uranium and doing all the things you would be doing if you were building nuclear weapons but we can trust and i would have an easier job because he said if he wants to wipe israel off the map mr first round of his war against the west you just can't afford to ignore that kind of thing but it's just one example of a ranch thoroughly of not just behavior in the middle east and people say well if you attack iran the middle east will erupt and chaos will be war going on ok moffitt the countries around israel are doing everything they can and dare to do to destroy israel already it's not like making the matters of danger you know this is like oh don't make hitler mad you know he might get aggressive your question is what range of threats to they pose and how can we deal with that you know they told the americans don't bring your aircraft carrier back to the strait of hormuz the

americans brought into said ok you feel like a naval battle you want to piece of us do you do it of course the iranians back down because they would have had i gone there that life you know wanted the idea is i think we were down the regime before it does something terrible i think we got to nato if i go to you i mean i right before the program i took a look at look at a look at i looked at a map of military bases the united states surrounding iran i mean my goodness there's a if you can call the regime of noxious if you want but it's certainly being threatened by the west in a very real way go ahead meet our. iran is israel is one of the most powerful nations in the world per capita per capita if you divide the number of nuclear weapons by the population is number one in the world it's even higher than russia and united states so nobody dares to attack israel this is just doesn't make sense but it's rambling this kind of nonsense is what the media and united states and some other places is going on is it changing the public's view of this is there is

no record of this iranian government be tough on its own people and not treat them democratically but when it comes to externals countries they have not attack anybody in two hundred years when the afghani regime the taleban is cut about twenty diplomats in missouri sheriff they couldn't even cross the border to attack them they are such a weak in terms of attacking other countries they are not interested in doing that they may have proxy wars with united said israel and that's not very good but in general the idea of the centrifuges that are in the safeguarded site in the times which you cannot say that about israel's dimona facility that is breaking bob this is absolutely ridiculous going back to the oil as your guest from london said the capacity of saudis apparently from what i have read is about three to four million barrels so basically it will tighten the market so much and it will impact so the iranian government deciding to actually preventing europeans and bluff them and to

actually try to remove the oil purchases to them as soon as possible actually even exasperate the economy of europe and they have would definitely be very defensive measures so all of this is increasing the temperature as i said earlier what they don't want in washington is the temperature going boiling over they wanted to be simmering all of it to november two thousand and twelve because the obama administration needs to show to the republicans and the voters that he's tough on iran but does not want to have a war at this time before november. two thousand and twelve so that's a very balancing act that is going on and it's all related and one mistake will change all of that money so let me in london one of these if let's say it happens ok that the european union cuts all imports of oil into iran well how will that are in fact the economy of iran will it break the back of the economy or is this just another round of sanctions that the iranians will just have to absorb. the iranian

economy is very dependent on oil exports the we've the whole world of. european union imports from iran will not very much affected an economy however if there is an effort to stop iran exporting oil and that could only happen at the united nations security council and i don't think that is a possibility will happen simply because russia or china or that so we are talking hypothetically about defensive measures of shutting the state of automobiles iran has the can really mind this street over what it was and cause a blockage to various tank catus how about it they will never to do that except on one condition if they were prohibited from selling their oil in that case they

would take the attitude that if we cannot sell our oil we will stall all oil exports from the gulf third of that or more in an act of defiance iran is carried by barrel of sample of packaging the us the nor are installations in saudi arabia which are out of the biggest in stations and their word and from which the ninety para cent of saudi oil exports are loaded what do you think about that john met before we go to the break here i mean is is this where you think this is possible that the sanctions will actually work or is need are really right this is just a political move in washington to please the israelis and please the republican electorate. well i'm puzzled by it because the thing is if iran isn't selling its oil to the european union it will be selling it to somebody else that person will then need to import less oil from elsewhere and that will be freed up for the europeans i mean oil is pretty much oil and so if the same amount is going into the

world market the same coming out i don't see that a whole lot has been achieved now if you get into a scenario where they start trying to stop or any oil exports altogether and then the iranians might want to attack saudi oil fields this gives the west a big incentive for a preemptive attack if the temperatures are going to show and i know john i'm going to go to a short break i'll go right back to you after the short break after our sjoberg will continue our discussion on the future of iran's faith with our team. to. you know sometimes you see a story and it seems so you think you understand it and then you glimpse something else you hear or see some other part of it and realize that everything you thought you knew you don't know i'm tom hardy welcome to the big picture.

if you. still. want to. welcome back to cross talk you know about to remind you we're talking about the

oil embargo to be imposed on iraq. and you can see. ok i like to go back to john in ottawa i mean we hear in mainstream media and politicians like to use that leave the term carrot and stick as if iran is a donkey or something like that but this carrot and stick approach has never worked it hasn't worked for thirty years why do you think it's going to work now. oh it won't work this is just the way that western diplomats talk to justify not taking effective action i mean and so john when we wouldn't be what would be effective actually going to war is that effective. i think that's going to have to happen look mom would want to bring the hidden even out of a well by doing something spectacular and destructive to enemies of islam and this

is what motivates him this is not like the old soviet leadership who for all their misdeeds were at least atheist so they believe that a nuclear war and death was and failure and many things die in a nuclear war for allah will get him to paradise what incentive do you have to bring to bear on him what carrot can you offer him to compare with us so you have to be prepared to stop his military efforts if i can say to him i think there's something really dangerous ok now go ahead please do. then he has never said that he wants to die in a nuclear attack this is absolutely not true this is the kind of thing we heard from the ill informed irresponsible republican nominees like michele bachmann he said they was going to use nuclear tipped missiles to hit israel he has never said that even if he says that what the sixteen words that they quote it is he's not in charge he's not the one who makes the decisions and isn't that interesting that when he says those things they believe him when he says we don't have nuclear bombs we don't believe it so we just selectively cherry pick what we want. to see him no

look he says listen he says i'm going to fight this war and he says he doesn't and you can evolve why didn't you win every in the helium in what he wants to wipe out israel was a lot for a country that had to have attacked anybody or not we only talk to the mossad heartful nation this kind of rhetoric this kind of rhetoric is not good for israel israel is a very strong country and it doesn't need this bibi netanyahu he looks at his kind of information and rhetoric to get reelected and he being here has a need now that people need to know how they're going to end like you are going to go and i'm sorry if you think it is interesting to me go. john jump in no because i thought i understood it as an obvious lesson on obvious why he would do law i of pro working on nuclear weapons until he has them even a ten year old child can figure that out he obviously wants to destroy it when he was mayor of toronto and you think that he's lying a lot and you sure of the law did not missing it for domestic consumption it doesn't know his job was there either so when i was going to charge of the military you don't charge and you know this pranksters president also said well why you want

to throw my god this is what you want to do and when they launch you want to use well you have to go to sleep until they've got them ready you have to be an idiot to fall for that ok manner you want to follow if you want to use the propaganda tool if you if you want to use the propaganda to cause threatening remarks about a country learn about it find out more about it you have never been to iran you don't speak farsi you don't even know the could the safeguard agreement that will iran be denied emission you cannot just open your mouth and say whatever you want when you haven't even studied the country isn't that responsible if you go teach a course you don't know how to teach it how can you talk about it if you and other people like you decide to talk about iran and attacking iran find out more about it learn study it read about comprehensive there are agreements and i'm forty five pages not only you haven't read it i think many of the republican candidates haven't read it and they keep talking about it they don't even know what they're talking about spend the time to learn and then attack i think that's the best way

john do you want one reply to another we're move on may i make the call man going to jump in there go ahead. well the. relation between always and iran's nuclear program all be stored is out of all of the nuclear program the question is there is a flaw in the arguments of the united states european union and the global community about the iran's you know if you had a weapon why the pressure on iran at a time when is that india bucks and nor could he also have a nuclear weapons before you put pressure on the air you will have to have even stand that it's not stand that is before you put pressure on iran then try to paris who it is that i have to relinquish its nuclear weapons or india or pakistan or north so we are talking here about the nuclear

program. needs and you hear out of power for alec that it's a generation to be able to say of oil for export about a wise it would be. degraded and why i'm not a exporter of oil but the iranians are enough of a verse to getting nuclear weapons so the question is if you put pressure on iran put b.c.m. by sharon is on iran and in the arrow bucks and north and then you can tilt ok i go back to john in our way here one of the things i think is really dangerous here and on both sides ok is the ratcheting up of rhetoric because when certain politicians and countries say that you know this is a red line you know if you go over this annoying and both sides are doing the revolutionary guards ok also saying that in iran again i'm going back to you know the ratcheting up of tension here made i think so there's

a certain point where we can keep it simmering i'm very dubious about that because there is absolutely no goodwill between the united states and iran we could have a tipping point here in the rhetoric that we hear coming out of western countries and out of iran is extremely dangerous. well i mean it depends how you look at it and if you think about dealings with hitler again it's a good example if the west set red lines and then didn't inforce them according to military station of the rhineland and eventually they set a red line they had to defend with poland from a much weaker position than they would have been even a year and a half earlier so when there's a regime you're trying to contain you must not do certain things or does them you take action otherwise you let them do whatever they like and obviously that this is a recipe for getting stomped so you know i would i prefer to avoid war but there are things worse than war ok i mean made our what countries around planning to invade if we use the hitler example. absolutely there is no comparing iran with hitler it's this honest to the loss of millions of jews who is not is

a hollow i can understand your sort of those who are your lawyer this is you have to learn to organise one of pro israel and i figured i would like to be quiet so he can least do. this use of comparison he has been they have been used in israeli government by bibi netanyahu and the individuals like your guest this is wrong this is discrediting all those jews that died in world war two and it's comparing something that is really not comparable he has said negative things about israel and i think going back to what your guest from london said once you go and criticize israel especially the one you regime then the wrath of the united states will come upon you with all its tools covert all over it sanctions and that's what the problem is that's what the difference between iran and those other countries are none of them have criticized israel and that's the price you pay now i'm not saying good or bad this is the decision that they don't and government has made that is the price you pay because you get at senate approval of

a bill with one hundred to zero how often does that happen and of course it was part of the military bill but at the same time it shows that if you fool around and you criticize israel does what you did so they have to deal with it and that's what the problem is it going to what you said peter about my seventy one. i mean israel hard to push john you want to reply matter of saying israel anyway it's a matter of saying they should israel is going to be wiped off the bat that's not criticizing as you don't already know that has denied the holocaust is that important terrorist group problems or as you have been writing libel he was not in charge that governor and gentlemen gentlemen will have no one and i'm just here trying to jump in now ok let me say let me if i can go to you in london one of the things that's interesting is the i.m.f. is estimated that if the if this oil gambit is played out what the european union wants to do and what iran will do in retaliation or even before is that we could see as a thirty percent oil increase in the price of oil going up and i mean in these

troubled times is it really worthwhile to do that when we have the eurozone that is tipping into recession obama's chances of pulling off a reelection if the price of gasoline goes up again i mean isn't this a really playing for playing with fire at a very bad time. no it was not so with playing with fire on a tour and it was a simple symbolic political decision to stop importing iranian oil it would have no effect on iran on the contrary it will have effect on the global economy as a whole because that rhetoric could ask any it and we saw it today that the price of oil has gone up by one dollar when iran and now says that it will not going to export or to the european union. think very clearly that if there is any escalation or any sign of real escalation i project big price of oil could

go to one fifty or one seventy dollars particularly if iran feels that it will be prevented from selling its all in and it tries to block the street of water was the price could go one fifty to one seventy delegates and who will be the biggest loser it is the united states because it is the biggest you result of all it imports twelve to fourteen million barrels a day and the second one the global economy as a whole the global economy is in the area to be sation the orsa decision says that there is any increase significant increases in the oil price will mean that the global economy will not be able to recover very quickly from the war a study says a recession it is in now ok john we're almost out of time is it's not worth trying to negotiate with are you just finished with negotiations or should we still give it a try because the iranians say they want to talk still what you think twenty seconds

you have they said they want to talk but they won't stop working on the nuclear program i think it's time we start building nuclear reactors to lessen our dependence on middle eastern oil just cancel the major pipeline from canada that would have helped america develop energy independence here make plans space missions an iranian regime cannot be dealt with except for only right. very interesting discussion thank you very much many thanks my guest today in our london and in irvine and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are to see you next time and remember crosstalk rules. on. a mission to stir. him up. and you want. to be soo much brighter. about sums from funds to the pressure inside.

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well. science technology innovation all the latest developments from around russia we've got the future covered. as fierce fighting surrounds damascus russia proposes to host peace talks between the syrian government and opposition. it could stop supplying some states in response to sanctions against its nuclear program which is currently undergoing a un inspection. broken piece of glass is not the broken heads that the police are inflicting on the occupy movement heavy handed police response to and he

called for protests in california is echoed across the atlantic where british officers are also accused of excessive use of force. and leaders meet in brussels for their first summit this year against the symbolic backdrop of the protests and a general strike in belgium our top stories this hour. international news and comment live from moscow this is syria is staring at the real possibility of deadly violence taking hold of the very center of the nation's capital rebel fighters have been locked in intensive battles with government forces in the suburbs surrounding damascus and an invitation from russia to host moscow based peace talks between syria's authorities and the opposition has been accepted .