you know sometimes you see a story and it seems so you think you understand it and then you glimpse something else you hear or see some other part of it and realize that everything you thought you knew you don't know i'm tired welcome to the big picture. and if you. want to. follow in the welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle crude blockade and the turning off of the taps as the united states and the e.u. again sanction iran iran is also threatening to impose punitive steps against the western powers are we witnessing merely a game of chicken or a potential bomb ticking before the advent of war. and.

to cross talk iran and its oil i'm joined by john robson in ottawa he is a columnist and commentator for a sun news network and invited professor at the university of ottawa in london we have to settle me he is an international oil economist and technical expert with the united nations industrial development organisation and in irvine we go to our bad day he is a professor of engineering at the university of california irvine all right gentlemen this is crosstalk that means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage it but first ok let's go to john robson in in london the you pushing forward july first will cut off all oil exports into the european union from iran and it is calling this strategy to avoid chaos in the middle east isn't it just actually the reverse this will create even more chaos in the middle east

this is counterproductive and actually it really actually provoke iran into taking some kind of offensive move that it hasn't to that to date. well the thing is iran is already taking as many offensive moves as it can possibly manage the fear of provoking aggressive regimes is one that's paralyzed the west throughout the twentieth century with terrible consequences i think the time for a showdown with iran is now rather than after it gets a working nuclear bomb so why worry about the sanctions is there not enough there a substitute for decisive action but that's certainly a step in the right direction nato what do you think about that it's a step in the right direction. no he's absolutely wrong they're not working on weapons the i.a.e.a. hasn't said that and it's definitely increasing the temperature in the gulf persian gulf area and in my opinion in the u.s. congress and the united states government basically wants to have a that certain temperature but not to boil over they want to have the tightening of

the rope around the government of iran but that the same time they don't want to have any particular military action over there and so therefore it's a very balancing act at this point and that's why the joint operation with israel was cancelled there are different reasons for that but certainly they want to bring the temperature down to the level of simmering ok now if anyone is good because it keeps the price of oil if i can go back to you i mean but isn't that kind of dangerous i mean that's setting a a tipping point i mean i mean if it's now you get to a small mistake and then the consequences are enormous go ahead. so they cannot pad themselves on the back because as you mentioned correctly it's very dangerous because one major minor mistake could turn into a huge problem and also as you know these wars can start easy but they cannot be stopped so it's a very dangerous position and people are due to the election purposes john when you want to jump in there. did did you say iran is not working on nuclear weapons

that's what he said yes there are no reports i.a.e.a. reports does not say that maybe you know something we don't know but anything that is publicly available not privately owned by the intelligence community the things that are publicly available and even the six intelligence organizations in two thousand and seven and eight on two thousand and eleven class clapper is the head of the i.c. basically told the congress that there is no effort on the on the weaponize ation at this time ok gentlemen that's what he said you can find a court on. monday so let me if in london if i can go to you what about this this oil regime that could you come into place here why would the european union wants to do and what iran is threatening to do today is monday and its discussion of cutting off oil to. the european union or the iranians doing the right thing or is it a bluff. i don't think it is a bluff i think it is

a defensive measure that they could force the european union to look for it somewhere else at a higher price because the global oil market is so tight so trying to fly five hundred to six hundred thousand but is which are imported by the european union will not be as easy job furthermore the gulf producers including saudi arabia i'm not in a position to all of said the loss of that oil because they don't have any spare capacity to be able to provide for the european union so we are in a very. difficult situation with the oil in the market very very tight ok john if i go back to you i mean really what this is all about we had tim geithner going around the world last month getting countries to cut oil imports from iran and most countries are not going to go along with it. but what is really

the plan is really about nuking iran is nuclear program or is it really about regime change for over thirty years now well after four sets of sanctions this is the silver bullet right this is the one that's finally to take the regime down is that what the plan is. well i think that that probably is the plan for the simple reason that the iranian regime is extremely of noxious and aggressive and you know the idea well they're not working on nuclear weapons they're just building centrifuges in a fortified compounds away under mountains and enriching uranium and doing all the things you would be doing if you were building nuclear weapons but we can trust and i would have an easier job because he said if he wants to wipe israel off the map mr first round of his war against the west you just can't afford to ignore that kind of thing but it's just one example of a ranch thoroughly obnoxious behavior in the middle east and people say well if you attack iran the middle east will erupt and chaos will be war going on ok moffitt the countries around israel are doing everything they can and dare to do to destroy israel already it's not like making the mad as a danger you know this is like oh don't make hitler mad you know he might get

aggressive the question is what range of threats to they pose and how can we deal with that you know they told the americans don't bring your aircraft carrier back to the strait of hormuz and the americans brought into said ok you feel like a naval battle you want a piece of us do you do it of course the iranians back down because they would have had iran at life you know what i mean the idea is i think we're down the regime before it does something terrible i think we've got to need to find go to you i mean i right before the program i took a look at look at a look at looked at a map of military bases the united states surrounding iran i mean my goodness there's a if you can call the regime of noxious if you want but it's certainly being threatened by the west in a very real way go ahead meet our. iran is israel is one of the most powerful nations in the world per capita per capita if you divide the number of nuclear weapons by the population is number one in the world it's even higher than russia and united states so nobody dares to attack israel this is just doesn't make sense

but it's rambling this kind of nonsense is what the media and united states and some other places is going on is it changing the public's view of this is there is no record of this iranian government be tough on its own people and not treat them democratically but when it comes to externals countries they have not attack anybody two hundred years when the afghani regime the taleban is cut about twenty diplomats in missouri sheriff they couldn't even cross the border to attack them they are such a weak in terms of attacking other countries they are not interested in doing that they may have proxy wars with united said israel and that's not very good but in general the idea of the centrifuges that are in that safeguarded site in the times which you cannot say that about israel's dimona facility that is breaking bob this is absolutely ridiculous going back to the oil as your guest from london said the capacity of saudis apparently from what i have read is about three to four million

barrels so basically it will tighten the market so much and it will impact so the iranian government deciding to actually preventing europeans and bluff them and to actually try to remove all of purchases to them as soon as possible actually exasperate the economy of europe and it would definitely be a very defensive measure so all of this is increasing the temperature as i said earlier what they don't want in washington is the temperature going boiling over they wanted to be simmering all of it to november two thousand and twelve because the obama administration needs to show to the republicans and the voters that he's tough on iran but does not want to have a war at this time before the. two thousand and twelve so that's a very balancing act that is going on and it's all related and one mistake will change all of that money so let me in london one of these if let's say it happens ok that the european union cuts all imports of oil into iran how will that are in

fact the economy of iran will it break the back of the economy or is this just another round of sanctions that the iranians will just have to absorb. the iranian economy is very dependent on oil exports the we've got hold of. european union imports from iran will not very much affected an economy however if there is an effort to stop iran exporting oil and that could only happen at the united nations security council and i don't think that is a possibility will happen simply because russia or china or that so we are talking hypothetically about defensive measures of shutting the state of automobiles iran has the can really mind this street over what it was and cause a blockage to various tank that is how about it they will know what to do with that

except on one condition if they were prohibited from selling their oil in that case they would take the attitude that if we cannot sell our oil we will stall all oil exports from the gulf third of that or more in an act of defiance iran is scared by a veil of sample exaggerating the us then nor are installations in saudi arabia which are out of the biggest in stations and their word and from which the nine p. pair of cent of saudi oil exports are loaded what do you think about that john met before we go to the break here i mean is is this where you think this is possible that the sanctions will actually work or is need are really right this is just a political move in washington to please the israelis and please the republican electorate. well i'm puzzled by it because the thing is if iran isn't selling its

oil to the european union it will be selling it to somebody else that person will then need to import less oil from elsewhere and that will be freed up for the europeans i mean oil is pretty much oil and so if the same amount is going into the world market the same coming out i don't see that a whole lot of spin achieved now if you get into a scenario where they start trying to stop arabian oil exports altogether and then the iranians might want to attack saudi oil fields this gives the west a big incentive for a preemptive attack if the temperature around that show and i know john let me go to a short break i'll go right back to you after the short break after a short break we'll continue our discussion on the future of red state with our q. . and.

can you. please. welcome back to cross talk you know about to remind you we're talking about the oil embargo to be imposed on iran. ok and i to go back to john in ottawa i mean we hear in mainstream media and

politicians like to use the term carrot and stick as if iran is a donkey or something like that but this carrot and stick approach has never worked it hasn't worked for thirty years why do you think it's going to work now oh it won't work this is just the way that western diplomats talk to justify not taking effective action in. so john when we don't want to be a what would be effective action going to war is that effective. i think that's probably going to have to happen look my word even if i want to bring the hidden event out of a well by doing something spectacular and destructive to enemies of islam and this is what motivates him this is not like the old soviet leadership who for all their misdeeds were at least atheist so they believed that a nuclear war and death was an end and failure and many years i think dying in a nuclear war for allah will get him to paradise what incentive do you have to bring to bear on him what camera can you offer him to compare with that so you have to be prepared to stop his military efforts by going to him if he does something

really dangerous ok now go ahead please do. then he has never said that he wants to die in a nuclear attack this is absolutely not true this is the kind of thing we heard from the ill informed irresponsible republican nominees like michele bachmann he said they was going to use nuclear tipped missiles to hit israel he has never said that even if he says that what the sixteen words that they quote it is he's not in charge he's not the one who makes the decisions and isn't that interesting that when he says those things they believe him when he says we don't have nuclear bombs we don't believe him so we just selectively cherry pick what we want. not in truth you have no look he says listen he says i'm going to fight this war and he says he doesn't and you can evolve why don't you win every and he laid out he wants to wipe out is what really says a lot for a country that has been attacked by anybody or shot now we only talk to them oh he said harmful nation this kind of rhetoric this kind of rhetoric is not good for israel israel is a very strong country and it doesn't need this new bibi netanyahu he looks at his

kind of information and rhetoric to get reelected and he being he has a need now that people you know want to transcend like you are going to get i'm sorry if you begin to say interesting to me go ahead john jump in no because what i did yesterday as an obvious lesson obvious why he would do law i of pro working on nuclear weapons until he has them even a ten year old child can figure that out he obviously wants to destroy it when he was mayor of toronto. you think that is lying a lot of time you sure of the law do you not me saying for domestic consumption it does because it is very hard to win is not even charge of the military so you don't charge and you know his predecessor as president also said well what you want to gather this is what you want to do and when they launch you want to use whatever you have the go to sleep until they've got them ready you have to be an idiot to fall for that ok manner you want to follow if you want to use the propaganda tool if you if you want to use the propaganda to cause threatening remarks about a country learn about it find out more about it you have never been to iran you

don't speak farsi you don't even know the could the safeguard agreement that will iran be denied emission you cannot just open your mouth and say whatever you want when you haven't even studied the country isn't that responsible if you go teach a course you don't know how to teach it how can you talk about it if you and other people like you decide to talk about iran and attacking iran find out more about it learn study it read about comprehensive there are agreements and i'm forty five pages not only you haven't read it i think many of the republican candidates haven't read it and they keep talking about it they don't even know what they're talking about spend the time to learn and then attack i think that's the best way john do you want one reply to that or we'll move on may i make the command going to jump in there go ahead. well the relation between always and iran's nuclear program all be stored is our bala be nuclear program the question is there is

a flow in the arguments of the united states european union and the global community about the iranians you have a weapons why the pressure on iran at a time when it is that india stand and nor could he also have nuclear weapons before you put pressure on the air you will have to have even stand that it's not stand that is before you put pressure on iran then there are a tool parents who it is that i is to relinquish its nuclear weapons or india or pakistan or not of so we are talking here about the nuclear program. needs and you clear out of power for alec that it's a generation to be able to say of oil for export about a wise it would be. degraded and why and how to explore a barrel of oil but the iranians are among

a verse to getting nuclear weapons so the question is if you put pressure on iran would be sam but i sharon is an iran in the arrow bucks that and nor could he and then you can tilt ok i go back to john in our way here one of the things i think is really dangerous here and on both sides ok is the ratcheting up of rhetoric because when certain politicians and countries say that you know this is a red line you know if you go over this annoying and both sides are doing the revolutionary guards ok also saying that in iran again i'm going back to you know the ratcheting up of tension here now major thinks that there's a certain point where we can keep it simmering i'm very dubious about that because there is absolutely no goodwill between the united states and iran we could have a tipping point here in the rhetoric that we hear coming out of western countries and out of iran is extremely dangerous. well i mean it depends how you look at it and if you think about dealings with hitler again it's

a good example if the west set red lines and then didn't inforce them according to our station of rhineland and eventually they set a red line they had to defend with poland from a much weaker position than they would have been even a year and a half earlier so when there's a regime you're trying to contain you must not do certain things or does them you take action otherwise you let them do whatever they like and obviously that this is a recipe for getting stomped so yeah i would prefer to avoid war but there are things worse than war ok i mean mater what countries around planning to invade if we use the hitler example. there is no comparing iran with hitler it's this honest to the loss of millions of jews it was not is a hollow that is going to started this whole idea lawyer this is you have to learn to organize one of pro israel again i figured i would do it quiet so he can least do. this use of comparison he has been they have been used in israeli government by bibi netanyahu when the individuals like your guest this is wrong this is

discrediting all those jews that died in war two and it's comparing something that is really not comparable he has said negative things about israel and i think going back to what your guest from london said once you go and criticize israel especially the one you regime then the wrath of the united states will come upon you with all its tools covert all over it sanctions and that's what the problem is that's what the difference between iran and those other countries are none of them have criticized israel and that's the price you pay now i'm not saying good or bad this is the decision that they don't and government has made that is the price you pay because you get at senate approval of a bill with one hundred to zero how often does that happen and of course it was part of the military bill but at the same time it shows that if you fool around and you criticize israel does what you did so they have to deal with it and that's what the problem is it going to what you said peter about a lot everyone. i mean israel hard to push john you want to return

a matter of saying israel anywhere it's a matter of saying they should israel is going to be wiped off the bat that's not criticizing if you don't already know that has denied the holocaust is that important terrorist group problems or as you have been writing liable he was not in charge that governor and gentlemen gentlemen i have no i don't i'm just here trying to jump in now ok let me say let me if i can go to you in london one of the things that's interesting is the i.m.f. is estimated that if the if this oil gambit is played out what the european union wants to do and what iran will do in retaliation or even before is that we could see it's a thirty percent oil increase the price of oil going up and i mean in these troubled times is it really worthwhile to do that when we have the eurozone that is tipping into recession obama's chances of pulling off a reelection if the price of gasoline goes up again i mean isn't this a really playing for playing with fire at a very bad time. no it was not a war of playing with fire on a tour and it was

a simple symbolic political decision to stop importing iranian oil it will have no effect on iran on the contrary it will have effect on the global economy as a whole because that rhetoric could skelly it and we saw today that the price of oil has gone up by one dollar when iran and now says that it will not go into export or into the european union. theme very clearly that if there is any escalation or any sign of rielle escalation i project the price of oil could go to one fifty or one seventy dollars particularly if iran feels that it will be prevented from selling its all in and it tries to block this fleet of water was the price could go one fifty to one seventy delegates and who will be the biggest loser it is the united states because it is the biggest you result of all it imports

twelve to fourteen million barrels a day and the second one the global economy as a whole the global economy is in the area to be sation the orsa decision says that there is any increase significant increases in the oil price will mean that the global economy will not be able to recover very quickly from the war or study a recession it is in now ok john we're almost out of time is it's worth trying to negotiate with it with or you just finish with negotiations or should we still give it a try because the iranians say they want to talk still what you think twenty seconds yeah they said they want to talk but they won't stop working on the nuclear program i think it's time we start building nuclear reactors to lessen our dependence on middle eastern oil back obama just cancel a major pipeline from canada that would have helped america develop energy independence here make plans space mission iranian regime cannot be dealt with except for only right. very interesting discussion thank you very much many thanks my guess a day in ottawa london and in irvine and thanks to our viewers for watching us here

are to see you next time and remember cross talk rules. to. start.

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