hello and welcome to crosstalk i'm peter lavelle crude blockade and the turning off of the taps as the united states and the e.u. again sanction iran to iran is also threatening to impose punitive steps against the western powers are we witnessing merely a game of chicken or a potential bomb ticking before the advent of war. to cross-talk iran and its oil i'm joined by john robson and he is a columnist and commentator for a sun news network and invited professor at the university of ottawa in london we have to settle me he is an international oil economist and technical expert with the united nations industrial development organisation and in irvine we go to our bankers our day he is a professor of engineering at the university of california irvine are gentlemen this is cross talk that means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much

encourage it but first ok let's go to john robson in in london the e.u. is pushing for july first will cut off all oil exports into the european union from iran and it is calling the strategy to avoid chaos in the middle east isn't it just actually the reverse this will create even more chaos in the middle east this is counterproductive and actually it really actually provoke iran into taking some kind of offensive move that it hasn't to that to date. well the thing is that iran is already taking as many offensive moves as it can possibly manage the fear of provoking aggressive regimes is one that's paralyzed the west throughout the twentieth century with terrible consequences i think the time for a showdown with iran is now rather than after it gets a working nuclear bomb so why worry what the sanctions is there not enough they're a substitute for decisive action but they're certainly a step in the right direction nato what do you think about that it's a step in the right direction. no he's absolutely wrong they're not working on

weapons the i.a.e.a. hasn't said that and it's definitely increasing the temperature in the gulf persian gulf area and in my opinion in the u.s. congress the united states government basically wants to have it at the certain temperature but not to boil over they want to have the tightening of the rope around the government of iran but at the same time they don't want to have any particular military action over there and so therefore it's a very balancing act at this point and that's why the joint operation with israel was cancelled there are different reasons for that but certainly they want to bring the temperature down to the level of simmering ok now if iran is good because it keeps the price of oil if i can go back to i mean but isn't that kind of dangerous i mean that's sitting over a tipping point i mean if it's now you get to a small mistake and then the consequences are enormous go ahead. so they cannot

pat themselves on the back because as you mentioned correctly it's very dangerous because one major minor mistake could turn into a huge problem and also as you know these wars can start easy but they cannot be stopped so it's a very dangerous position and people are usually the election purposes john when you want to jump in there. did you say iran is not working on nuclear weapons that's what he said yes there are no reports i.a.e.a. reports does not say that maybe you know something we don't know but anything that is publicly available not privately or by the intelligence community the things that are publicly available and even the sixth intelligence organizations in two thousand and seven and eight on two thousand and eleven. o'clock or at the head of the i.c. basically told the congress that there is no effort on the on the weaponize ation at this time ok gentlemen that's what he said you can find

a quote on men. money so let me if in london if i can go to you what about this this oil regime the do could you come into place here what you buy with the european union wants to do and what iran is threatening to do today is monday and it's discussion of cutting off oil to. the european union are you doing the right thing or is it a bluff i don't think it is a bluff i think it is a defensive measure that they could force the european union to look for it somewhere else at a higher price because the global oil market is so tight so trying to fly five hundred to six hundred thousand bet is which are imported by the european union will not be as easy job furthermore the gulf producers including saudi arabia i'm not in a position to all of said the loss of that oil because they don't have any spare

capacity to be able to provide for the european union and so we are in a very. difficult situation with the oar in the market very very tight ok john if i go back to you i mean really what this is all about we had tim geithner going around the world last month getting countries to cut oil imports from iran and most countries are not going to go along with it what is really the plan is it really about nuclear iran is nuclear program or is it really about regime change for over thirty years now what after four sets of sanctions this is the silver bullet right this is the one that's finally to take the regime down is that what the plan is. well i think that that probably is the plan for the simple reason that the iranian regime is extremely of noxious and aggressive and you know the idea well they're not working on nuclear weapons they're just building centrifuges in a fortified compounds away under mountains and enriching uranium and doing all the things you would be doing if you were building nuclear weapons but we can trust and

i would have an easier job because he said if he wants to wipe israel off the map mr first round of his war against the west you just can't afford to ignore that kind of thing but it's just one example of iran's thoroughly of not just behavior in the middle east and people say well if you attack iran the middle east will erupt and chaos will be war going on ok moffitt the countries around israel are doing everything they can and dare to do to destroy israel already it's not like making the mad is a danger you know this is like oh don't make hitler mad you know he might get aggressive the question is what range of threats to they pose and how can we deal with that you know they told the americans don't bring your aircraft carrier back to the strait of hormuz and the americans brought into said ok you feel like a naval battle you want a piece of us do you do it of course the iranians back down because they would have had i gone there that life you know what i mean the idea is i think we were down the regime before it does something terrible i think we've got to nato if i go to you i mean i right before the program i took a look at look at a look at i looked at a map of military bases the united states surrounding iran i mean my goodness

there's a if you can call the regime of noxious if you want but it's certainly being threatened by the west in a very real way go ahead meet our. iran is israel is one of the most powerful nations in the world per capita per capita if you divide the number of nuclear weapons by the population is number one in the world it's even higher than russia and united states so nobody dares to attack israel this is just doesn't make sense but it's rambling this kind of nonsense is what the media and united states and some other places is going on is it changing the public's view of this is there is no record of this iranian government be tough on its own people and not treat them democratically but when it comes to externals countries they have not attack anybody in two hundred years when the afghani regime the taliban's cut about twenty diplomats in missouri sheriff they couldn't even cross the border to attack them they are such a weak in terms of attacking other countries they are not interested in doing that

they may have proxy wars with united said israel and that's not very good but in general the idea of the centrifuges that are in that safeguarded site in the times which you cannot say that about israel's dimona facility that is breaking bob this is absolutely ridiculous going back to the oil as your guest from london said the capacity of saudis apparently from what i have read is about three to four million barrels so basically it will tighten the market so much and it will impact so the iranian government deciding to actually preventing europeans and bluff them and to actually try to remove the oil purchases to them as soon as possible actually exasperate the economy of europe and they have would definitely be very defensive measures so all of this is increasing the temperature as i said earlier what they don't want in washington is the temperature going boiling over they wanted to be simmering all of it to november two thousand and twelve because the obama administration needs to show to the republicans and the voters that he's tough on

iran but does not want to have a war at this time before november. two thousand and twelve so that's a very balancing act that is going on and it's all related and one mistake will change all of that money so let me in london. if let's say it happens ok that the european union cuts all imports of oil into iran how will that are in fact the economy of iran will it break the back of the economy or is this just another round of sanctions that the iranians will just have to absorb. the iranian economy is very dependent on oil exports the with the hold of. european union imports from iran will not very much affect the economy however if there is an effort to stop iran exporting oil and that could only happen at the united nations security council and i don't think

that is a possibility will it will happen simply because russia or china or that so we are talking hypothetically about defensive measures of shutting the strait of automobiles iran has the can but really to mine this state of horrors and cause a blockage to various tank catus how about it they will know what to do with that except on one condition if they were prohibited from selling their oil in that case they would take the attitude that if we cannot sell our oil we will still order or exports from the gulf furthermore in an act of defiance iran is carried by barrel of sample of packaging the us the nor are installations in saudi arabia which are out of the biggest in stations and and from which the nine p.

para cent of saudi oil exports are loaded what do you think about that john met before we go to the break here i mean is is this where you think this is possible that the sanctions will actually work or is need are really right this is just a political move in washington to please the israelis and please the republican electorate. well i'm puzzled by it because the thing is if iran isn't selling its oil to the european union it will be selling it to somebody else that person will then need to import less oil from elsewhere and that will be freed up for the europeans i mean oil is pretty much oil and so if the same amount is going into the world market the same coming out i don't see that a whole lot of spin achieved now if you get into a scenario where they start trying to stop arabian oil exports altogether and then the iranians might want to attack saudi oil fields this gives the west a big incentive for a preemptive attack if the temperature around that show and i know john let me go to a short break i'll go right back to you after the short break after a short break we'll continue our discussion on the future of rent space with our team.

to. i am. were shot four times in total. war as it were the. story of the boys are still in my body.

and those people should be allowed to defend themselves wherever they are guns in the hands of law abiding decent people are not a problem national rifle association there's a group of basically retired military police love to shoot holes in i'm sorry if you know that the bullet comes out here and this makes it go bang and what's in front of here is going to die and that's all the training you really really need raise your hand if you know something's been. ok place to live well one of the philadelphia owners over streets. until about a hopefully we will never have to use the weapons for self defense but we should be prepared in a full class including the teacher i say it was. seventeen students. and one or seven or still a lot. more

news today violence is once again fled. and these are the images. from the streets of canada. china operations are today. if you. still. want to. welcome back to cross talk you know about to remind you we're talking about the oil embargo to be imposed on iraq. and you can see. ok i like to go back to john in ottawa

i mean we hear in mainstream media and politicians like to use the lead the term carrot and stick as if iran is a donkey or something like that but this carrot and stick approach has never worked it hasn't worked for thirty years what do you think is going to work now. oh it won't work this is just the way that western diplomats talk to justify not taking effective action i mean. so john when we would really be a what would be effective action going to war is that effective. i think that's going to have to happen look mom would want to bring the hidden even out of a well by doing something spectacular and destructive to enemies of islam and this is what motivates him this is not like the old soviet leadership who for all their misdeeds were at least atheist so they believe that a nuclear war and death was an end and failure and many energy i think is dying in a nuclear war for allah will get him to paradise what incentive do you have to bring to bear on him what carrot can you offer him to compare with us so you have

to be prepared to stop his military efforts if i can tell him if he does something really dangerous ok now go ahead please do. then he has never said that he wants to die in a nuclear attack this is absolutely not true this is the kind of thing we heard from the ill informed irresponsible republican nominees like michele bachmann he said they was going to use nuclear tipped missiles to hit israel he has never said that even if he says that what the sixteen words that they quote it says he's not in charge he's not the one who makes the decisions and isn't it interesting that when he says those things they believe him when he says we don't have nuclear bombs we don't believe in it so we just selectively cherry pick what we want. that it really should have no look he says listen he says i'm going to go into a sense doesn't it and you can evolve why don't you want every and he lay me down he wants to wipe out this really says a lot for a country that has had a tad anybody or should not be only drop to the most powerful nation this kind of rhetoric this kind of rhetoric is not good for israel israel is

a very strong country and it doesn't need this bibi netanyahu he looks at his kind of information and rhetoric to get reelected and he being he has a need now that people are going to jump in like you are because i mean when i saw this interesting to me go. john jump in no because i thought i understood it as an obvious lesson obvious why he would do law i of pro working on nuclear weapons until he has them even a ten year old child can figure that out he obviously wants to destroy asia when he was mayor of toronto and you think that he's lying a lot and you sure of the law and you are not missing for domestic consumption it doesn't you know his job was never there when i was going to charge of the military so you don't charge and you know his predecessors president also said when and where you want to gather this is what you want to do and when they launch you want to use whatever you have no go to sleep until that got them ready you have to be an idiot to fall for that ok manner you want to follow if you want to use the propaganda tool if you if you want to use the propaganda to cause threatening

remarks about a country learn about it find out more about it you have never been to iran you don't speak farsi you don't even know the safeguard agreement of iran of united nation you cannot just open your mouth and say whatever you want when you haven't even studied the country isn't that responsible if you go teach a course you don't know how to teach it how can you talk about it if you and other people like you decide to talk about iran and attacking iran find out more about it learn study it read about comprehensive there are agreements and i'm forty five pages not only you haven't read it i think many of the republican candidates haven't read it and they keep talking about it they don't even know what they're talking about spend the time to learn and then attack i think that's the best way john do you want one reply to that or we're move on may i make the command going to jump in there go ahead. well the relation between always and iran's nuclear program all be stored is our bala bin nuclear program the

question is there is a flow in the arguments of the united states european union and the global community about the iranians you have a weapon why the pressure on iran at a time when is that india bucks and nor could he also have nuclear weapons before you put pressure on the air you will have to have even stand that it's not stand that is before you put pressure on iran then there are a tool parents who it is that i have to relinquish its nuclear weapons or india or pakistan or north so we are talking here about the nuclear program. here on needs and you hear out of power for alec that it's a generation to be able to say of oil for export about a wise it will be. degraded and why and how to export that of oil

but the iranians are not a verse to getting nuclear weapons so the question is if you put pressure on iran put b.c.m. by sharon is on iran and in the box that and nor could he and then you can tilt ok i did go back to john in our way here one of the things i think is really dangerous here and on both sides ok is the ratcheting up of rhetoric because when pursued politicians and countries say that you know this is a red line you know if you go over this annoying and both sides are doing the revolutionary guards ok also saying that in iran again i'm going back to you know the ratcheting up of tension here now made i think so there's a certain point where we can keep it simmering i'm very dubious about that because there is absolutely no goodwill between the united states and iran we could have a tipping point here in the rhetoric that we hear coming out of western countries and out of iran is extremely dangerous. well i mean it depends how you look at it

and if you think about dealings with hitler again it's a good example if the west set red lines and then didn't inforce them according to our station of rhineland and eventually they set a red line they had to defend with poland from a much weaker position and they would have been even a year and a half earlier so when there's a regime you're trying to contain you must not do certain things or does them you take action otherwise you let them do whatever they like and obviously that this is a recipe for getting stomped so yeah i would prefer to avoid war but there are things worse than war ok i mean nato are what countries around planning to invade if we use the hitler example. there is no comparing iran with hitler it's this honest to the loss of millions of jews who is not is a hollow i can understand your sort of those who are your lawyer this is you have to learn to organise one of the priorities clearly again i figured i would do it quiet so he can least do. this use of comparison he has been they have been used in

israeli government by bibi netanyahu and the individuals like your guest this is wrong this is discrediting all those jews that died in world war two and it's comparing something that is really not comparable he has said negative things about israel and i think going back to what your guest from london said once you go and criticize israel especially the one you regime then the wrath of the united states will come upon you with all its tools covert all over it sanctions and that's what the problem is that's what the difference between iran and those other countries are none of them have criticized israel and that's the price you pay now i'm not saying good or bad this is the decision that they don't and government has made that is the price you pay because you get at senate approval of a bill with one hundred to zero how often does that happen and of course it was part of the military bill but at the same time it shows that if you fool around and you criticize israel does what you did so they have to deal with it and that's what

the problem is it going to what you said peter. i mean israel hard to push john you want to reply matter of saying israel anyway it's a matter of saying they should israel's going to be wiped off the bat that's not criticizing theirs i don't want to shout has denied the holocaust is that important terrorist problem or as you have been writing libel he was not in charge that governor and gentlemen gentlemen will have no i don't i'm just here trying to jump in now ok let me say let me if i can go to you in london one of the things that's interesting is the i.m.f. is estimated that if the if this oil gambit is played out what the european union wants to do and what iran will do in retaliation or even before is that we could see as a thirty percent oil increase the price of oil going up and i mean in these troubled times is it really worthwhile to do that when we have the eurozone that is tipping into recession obama's chances of pulling off a reelection if that your the price of gasoline goes up again i mean isn't this a really playing for playing with fire at a very bad time. no it was not

a lot of playing with fire and i thought and it was a simple symbolic political decision to stop importing iranian oil it would have no effect on iran on the contrary it will have effect on the global economy as a whole because that correct could ask eliot and we saw it today that the price of oil has gone up by one dollar when iran and now says that it will not go into export orders because the european union. think very clearly that if there is any escalation or any sign over e.-l. escalation i project the price of oil could go to one fifty or one seventy dollars particularly if iran feels that it will be prevented from selling its only and it tries to block the street of water was the price could go one fifty to one

seventy delegates and who will be the biggest loser it is the united states because it is the biggest you result of oil it imports twelve to fourteen million barrels a day and the second one the global economy as a whole the global economy is in the area to be sation the orsa decision says that there is any increase significant increases in the oil price will mean that the global economy will not be able to recover very quickly from the war study says a recession it is in now ok john we're almost out of time is it's worth trying to negotiate with or you just finish with negotiations or should we still give it a try because the iranians say they want to talk still do you think twenty seconds yeah they said they want to talk but they won't stop working on the nuclear program i think it's time we start building nuclear reactors to lessen our dependence on middle eastern oil back obama just cancel a major pipeline from canada that would have helped america develop energy independence here make plans space mission iranian regime cannot be dealt with

except for only right. very interesting discussion thank you very much many thanks my guest today in ottawa london and in irvine and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are to see you next time and remember cross-talk rules. still. wealthy british style. markets why not. find out what's really happening to the global economy

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welcome bob this is all see the headline. fierce fighting through runs damascus as rebels and gauge with government forces and some of the countless old men while their sun government welcomes a russian proposal to host moscow based peace talks with the opposition which has

given a mixed reaction. iran says it could stop supplying or it's only new states in the response to sanctions against its nuclear program which is currently undergoing a un inspection. leaders have agreed on a permanent five hundred billion euro rescue fund for the first summit of the game draw souls also old ball to be used twenty seven countries have agreed to close a fiscal union intended to mean tough brussels control over the budgets of member states to help deal with the euro crisis. and have a hundred police response to. some kind of protocols that want to take british officers they're also accused of excessive use of. those the headlines up next door to disturb brings the latest details of the use summit in brussels calm so i count .