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tactics and weapons from. his debate truck cross-talk and today on his guests discuss the strange relations between auden tina and britain over the fall and. if. you. follow in welcome to crossfire time people about take your pick for the falkland islands or the melvina britain and argentina are again sparring over the legal status and future of these islands is this dispute about self-determination and sovereignty or one of the last vestiges of british imperialism. and.

to cross-talk the endless dispute over these islands i'm joined by my guest in washington larry burns he is the director of the council on hemispheric affairs alex gibson he's a fulbright scholar specializing in contemporary argentinian politics and a research associate at the council on hemispheric affairs and lou coffey he's a fellow in the margaret thatcher center for freedom at heritage all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want larry i want to go to you first here over the last few weeks and months we've seen a ratcheting up of tensions between britain and argentina over these islands the islands that these two countries fought a war over thirty years ago what's in play here what what we should be worried about the tensions here or is this something of a function of domestic politics in both countries. well probably a combination of all of those things i think that the the real danger that lies

at the bottom of this whole issue is is an accident or some kind of unplanned development that may deteriorate into. a shooting conflict but the both the time military and the british military are really in no shape to. fight a war that's thousands of miles separating the disputants and also it's very apparent that much of the motivation behind this conflict is there to ration of domestic conditions in argentina which was the same explanation for why the war in one nine hundred eighty two broke out that is the military which ruled the country in argentina at the time was. engaging in corruption and deep cation of funds and the government needed some kind of

great patriotic issue to. pull the nation together roughly speaking the same sort of thing is happening now and i think that is part of the explanation for what we're now seeing ok if i go to look i think it's very interesting here in britain most people don't really care much about the what they call the falkland islands and i mean of course that was that was patriotic on the side of the the brits thirty years ago but it's not really a big issue and people aren't sitting in pubs talking about these islands but they are in argentina is that isn't that kind of a risk too and it seems odd if it people in britain don't care about it why does the british government care so much about it well i would have to say that your average person on the streets in great britain don't care much about the issues surrounding the falkland islands and how it's made an issue by the argentinians. we saw that the front page of the sun newspaper today in britain had sean penn's remark. during his recent visit in the falklands so i think i think you're

absolutely right about the political classes care a great bit about the falkland islands and britain sovereignty over those islands and i think the reason is because no british government could ever survive losing the falkland islands ok alex that's rather peculiar too because i mean there's so much as it riskier i mean britain and argentina these are important countries and they should have good relations why is it isn't it with their risk for the british to put so much into this bad relationship over what three thousand people whose claim of self-determination is a bit dubious at best. if i can just quickly respond to mr burns point first and then get to luke and yourself we should be careful first about drawing parallels between the ninety two situation between argentina and britain and what we see today because as mr resolute two one thing that should ring very clear here is that no one's going to war in both countries know this so what's what's really

really important question to get at here is what are the underlying motives why are we talking about this now rather than just the fact that it's the thirtieth anniversary of the conflict getting to this point about about the importance of the falklands to britain and well let me and let me add on that a bit to argentina i think the question of survival is a bit extreme i think anyone would acknowledge that and britain would be absolutely fine with out without the falklands under their sovereign control but what would pose an even greater problem is the is if argentina were to continue on the track with its relationship with the falklands now what i mean is without some sort of sovereignty or at the very least nick sovereignty very basic things like trade agreements between the falklands in argentina and just the effect of their geographical location is going to make it difficult to sustain a puzzle relationship not just for argentina but for those cultures which are what the falkland islanders are called one final point here and quickly also.

then the main thing to remember about all of this is. this this isn't an issue that's going on like i said before is going to escalate in into conflict it's a political issue but it's also something that's at the core of argentine identity these these islands have been under argentina's claim since before its independence this is not just something that came off as a when argentina leaves that these islands belong to them and has felt that for over a century so i think we have to look at the deeper issues underlying this rather than just the political a grief if we go larry i mean there's a need for the. ok ok look but for many in south america this is just a colonial you two it's a colonial issue for a lot of people in south america right go ahead well well yeah. and so far as the argentinians would like to colonize the three thousand british citizens and her majesty's subjects currently living peacefully in these islands i want to go back

to a point alex smith i think you misunderstood me slightly when i was saying that the issue about survival is not that great britain as a nation can survive with the loss of the falkland islands i was saying that the government of the day would fall if the falkland islands were ever taken now i do agree with you know there is not going to be a military the military answer to this this is going to be resolved peacefully and me and i firmly believe ok look if i can stay with you it's been thirty years so why hasn't it been resolved and it looks like nobody on either side wants to resolve it well as far as the british government is concerned the situation is resolved they've made very clear that. it's a matter of self-determination as clearly outlined in the un charter and that is so long as the people of the falkland islands want to remain british they shall remain british and this is a very simple the simple fact the people of the falklands want to be british ok i

don't want to be arguing and i don't think it is that simple go to larry here i mean this is not indigenous people to these islands are they and this is what the argentine position is ok what is how strong is the claim to self-determination if they're not indigenous to the island and as a matter of fact i mean i read somewhere was that only forty percent of the population there has lived there for ten years what kind of self-determination is that. well trace of paternity of a lot of countries a lot of civilizations you may find kind of a murky antecedents but the interesting thing is of course the british had no difficulty in liquidating a vast empire its empire today consists of christian to cool the other falklands bermuda and a couple of other islands here and there so this is not exactly a country that's dedicated to colonialism or can you find an explanation of why this is happening in such a simplistic explanation as clueless and i think really what it is

is that. in both countries the issue has become wrapped in symbolism and there also is another issue here and that is what really brought argentina into the falkland war in one nine hundred eighty two and why is it posturing again right now i think the beginning of the discussion is we don't really know all the facts of the matter for example i would like to know why in general vernon walters was in the argentine military club when the issue of being of invading the falklands was discussed the being discussed and everyone turned to general walters who is raked president reagan's emissary from the united states and he simply shrugged this was taken interpreted by the argentine military as an ascent to archaeology

and counter we're about to do and we also had ambassador jean kirkpatrick that evening the evening of the invasion was at the auction con embassy in washington she knew the invasion was going to take place why was she there. i think that the argentine government has a point. a body called the rotten back commission which is looking into these matters but this war this conflict this issue has an extraordinary potential for being explosive not because of religion herron importance but because of the emotion out to you catch the issue on both sides ok alex what about the issue of self-determination i mean how strong do you think the case is for the people who live on the island for self-determination well i think. argentina has a very long history of angle argentine relations and not just that but english

heritage within argentina there's no reason why the islanders the people who live on the island can't live peacefully independently within the sovereignty of argentina i mean if you look at argentina today has had to go to you in all sorts or give me about well because that they want to be british subjects ok well look you bring up a good point why you want to be british such as it can be why can't they just be british subjects within the sovereignty of argentina. what's wrong with that well yes if they were under the siren control of argentina they wouldn't be british subjects well they would like it's very clear that some determination is based around the idea that these people are living in the falkland islands today and want to be british now this argument that they're not indigenous population well there's never been an indigenous population on the falkland islands ever in fact the closest thing we have to an indigenous population is what we have there today you're correct in saying that you know roughly forty percent of these people may have lived in the falklands for less than ten years i'm not sure those facts but it

sounds about right but i mean sixty person have lived there longer and some of them have been there for generations so quite clearly this is a matter of self-determination for the people of the falkland islands wanting to remain british now large and tina needs to do is if they if they think they have a solution to this problem they need to say what they would do with the three thousand people living on these islands who wish to remain british if these islands were to go back on or go back into argentine control all right let me jump in guys we're going to go to a break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion of the future of the south atlantic island state party. story.

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welcome back to cross talk time peter lavelle remind you we're talking about what the british called the fall when i. started. ok alex and i we were talking about the issue of self-determination and and researching this program here i'm going to i'm not an international lawyer but you know it seems like the the argentines have a pretty strong case for the sovereignty over the falkland islands i mean in many many ways i mean it was that they were themselves a colony of the spanish so i mean you know it is this this is not helping either side because either side is very rigid on that but they do have still a very strong case. yes i believe they do and i want to make it clear i'm not a nut rallying for the falkland cause either i like to look at this of the perspective of a journalist but i'd be very happy to outline the arguments in argentina's favor

and i think the biggest one just to respond to what luke was saying a moment ago the three thousand islanders that want to become british we should certainly respect that we should hear them and respect their their desires but also recognise the basic facts twelve million argentines three thousand people who live on a colonial vest each is not exactly equal in terms of of what they're both of their their weight of both causes what we have right now is a falkland fortress and the question is do we want to continue that you can you know cameron can keep sending out as many elite destroyers as he like but it seems a bit counterproductive and what we should really be looking at here again are the velvety of argentina's claims which as you alluded to go far back both historically and also the importance of the geographic claims the resources surrounding the falkland ok i want to i want to get to the one i want to get to the royal issue which i want to tell you only should a second jump in go ahead. you yes i do firstly that they don't want to become

british they are british in terms of the history of who is had control of the falkland islands you made the point that the the spanish had the falkland islands or anything or control but the last spanish settlement actually left an eighteen eleven and i believe that they argentina declared independence from the spanish in eight hundred sixteen so at the time of this the argentine declared independence from spain no one had defacto control over the falklands and i was until a hundred thirty three with a major british settlement that really became permanent around eight hundred thirty eight that the falkland islands were actually settled by anyone and this argument about a geographical location is holds no water at all because look at canary islands for example then morocco would have a claim over the canary islands ok larry if i can go to you i mean as a result of the war thirty years ago there was it was the united nations that

should be a compromise or should be negotiations between britain and argentina why can't we can't this just be resolved i mean if there's just no political will is there. well in. a lot of little elements here one is argentine is not particularly famous for good governance and an argument is repeatedly made to remind us that back in nine hundred seventy six eighty three some twenty five thousand knowledge and current civilians were murdered by the military. secondly. in terms of precedence and so forth you clearly can't look at the self-determination issue as either strengthening or weakening the respective positions of the two countries because you can find compelling arguments going either way and sovereignty issue isn't clear cut and you know both countries can

score their points. the real issue at this point is that there has to be a solution at some period because you arjun tonnage are going to continue to line over the issue because this is a great national cause that can be exhumed when. you need a big whenever you need a good distraction waves a bloody flag a frog. and even even as a variance go right ahead. you know let me jump in very quickly can i let me tell you one very easy way for me to lose this argument by defending the military junta and argentina and i would never do that i'm not going to defend a group of murderers and murderers who are currently serving life sentences in jail now the real issue here is that ardent the argentine democracy today which has not

only distance itself from this military dictatorship but has been proactive in finding justice for for the atrocities committed why should they have to pay for the stupidity and the. just the actions of these these military generals the violent actions of these generals i think we have to i think what mr burns is doing is he's equating the government of cristina kirchner to that of the delo or some of these more of these these dictators and that's just not fair so i think we have to really look at modern day argentina today ok just to get to a second point this issue of what ok i'm going to raise your second point quickly go ahead go ahead. an easy argument also to say to discard argentines claims here is that it's bloviation they're whining this is all political but if you actually look at the past thirty years their claims to the islands are and i'm talking the last thirty years very in keeping with foreign policy and economic policy after the the actions the belligerent actions of the military junta with with the birth of

democracy following the failure of the war under menem in the ninety's he kept this issue low he wanted to get on the good side of england of britain but what happened with the kitchener first minister and the christina with their governments is they didn't want to be dependent on these strong western countries the united states so they said we are going to build our national sovereignty we're going to making to sit out can do you know we're going to make this country great i actually wish they'd let me do that involves let me jump in because there's another huge issue out there that we haven't really talked about and that's called oil and there's a potential there vast reserves could be there and the british are now unilaterally doing exploration. is this what it should really now all about is about oil because maybe the britons don't care about the falkland islands but they care about oil b.p. does go ahead. well that's a forgive me it's a bit of a simplistic way to look at the situation. you're absolutely correct in saying that there is exploration going on around the falkland islands but i also believe and

correct me if i'm wrong alex about think there is some actual there was some joint fall when argentina exploration going on as well but the matter to me is quite simple if the oil that is found is found around the falkland islands in the area that. under its sovereign control then we know where the oil belongs but the sort of back and forth between large and. the net and the following list that continues to dominate alex go ahead so i could say yeah like i said the only the only colonial asking me to this whole debate is the fact that argentina wants a colonized three thousand british subjects on the hawke and i and i think that's a bit simplistic alex you want to record i heard david cameron too but one other side says something i know what you are aware of us the us the great and wonderful as the three thousand people who live on the falkland islands and they will want to remain british ok larry if i can go to you how do you how do you see the oil playing into this here go ahead go ahead larry. i'm sorry i didn't get your point

now my but you know we throwing in oil now here how does this change the mix all right right right ali. this becomes an economic determinism argument. you know the british certainly like the sniff of oil. but you have to face up to the fact that income we have to call in the nigeria and so forth which have plenty of oil the british are probably giving up. colonies. it is not. and the. british tradition when it comes to commies what you have here is that the conservative party margaret . for the iron lady who was able to describe general vigilance and be known many as ten pop dictators but howard no problem

in hugging and gracing general pinochet of chile because chile was of use to the british in the falklands that is the tories ig adopted this issue as the as the great pottery out of the issue of the decade and it was a very heroic one and the british sending their v. bombers thousands of miles an improvised oil tankers that had landing strips laid down on them it was a it was a really a glorious war and there is a subset of the british population that is deeply committed to that war and also. a much larger percentage of the british population that can have their enthusiasm be revived very quickly if there's any threat to the fore prudence and the tories know they can work this issue and of course is a domestic component to this but it's not something that the world has to get away

with because the british have quite quite as a matter of fact have as bonafide a case no better no worse than the arjun time and i don't think the argentines have so there's another scenario there's another element here look if i go to you what about the the antarctic ok because it's become more and more important in this is a nice nice foothold for the for the brits to be on what they call the falkland islands i mean there are other places at the they did these islands are moving but political reality and economic reality is moving. yeah with it with these islands and the south atlantic you know the days of the british empire are over the sheer t.j. value of these islands now in the twenty first century or are not true is not really relevant this isn't about for great britain this is not about oil this is not about power this is a. strategic influence in the subtle and take the.