week's news on the very latest developments russians go to the polls to choose their next president govern the country for six years was promised to be the most transparent but to date observers in both countries are going to train every polling station. but in other news this week fears of outside intervention escalates in syria has around a hundred suspects investments in the french quarter being one twelve homes the rebels also claim they've been so gun french and american weapons. and with stones are gone in seventy thousand pounds. also e.u.

states sign up to tough budget rules to stop spending britain the czech republic funny like the troops to take rallies took place in several european countries against crosscut some posed to save the single currency. but it's russia chooses its next leader people of his guests debate what voters might be expecting from the winner of the presidential election. eat. meat. can.

follow in welcome across talk on people about voting for the future in two days' time russians will go to the polls to elect their next president what is the nature of russia's political system how has it changed over time and most importantly is the russian voter. live we can. live. to cross that the upcoming the presidential election here in russia i'm joined by dmitri barber chair in the studio with me he's an independent political analyst in madrid we go to air kraus he's an independent asset manager and author of the strategy monthly truth in beauty and in london we cross to jonathan steele he is the international affairs commentator for the guardian and all right gentlemen crossed out rules in effect and that means you can jump in anytime you want also i'd like to read remind our panel and my viewers that because of the russian election law we cannot speak specifically about polling numbers as of the

twenty seventh to sunday the day of the election so we won't be using a lot of numbers here in this program ok eric kraus if i go to you first in madrid reading western media about this election it seems like the russian voter is very you know dimensional do you think there's a typical russian voter and if there is a typical one how would you describe that voter. well i would say the typical russian voter if we can use mathematical averages is one who's going to vote for mr putin. we've heard a lot in the western press about how putin was losing his popularity how all the facebook protests in moscow in the demonstrations meant that the regime was on its way out and of course when the polls which i can't give any numbers on but the polls have certainly shown a very substantial rise and that mr putin is going to sweep to victory in the first round so i understand that he is unpopular with some of the foreign powers and

perhaps those people who have influence on the foreign press but in russia. overall in the country he remains very popular in the studio here with me i mean how would you describe the voter because i mean if you read western mainstream media they focus a lot on what's called the opposition of the new opposition what i call the main opposition here in moscow and there are quite a few people that would probably fall into that category but it's look at the entire country i mean is it a liberal electorate a conservative electorate i mean obviously what eric had to say would say was more conservative well of course it's very difficult to talk about an average of all together which you have you know russia is one of the most diverse countries in the world it's very difficult to generalize here but in general i would say that the general trend is the following. a typical russian voter is a person who lived through some very difficult times. who has been feelin some discomfort especially in the last two or three years but who is still relational

and who wants to have a perspective for himself and we can struggle and that person he might get a little disillusioned with the government in the last three years probably at the peak of these protests it was registered by the source you all just not in december but in march last year. december it was already between art but you know this person haven't looked at all the clearly displayed are suggesting it's economically financially driven not politically driven or when to the where there were two or three very unpopular reforms in russia and to my mind not very successful reforms there was an education reform there was health care reform and just like in any country of today's world these are all people changes and none of these changes is called beneficial to everyone so these people are tired but haven't looked at the options the majority is going to support him in germany going to i think it's an interesting point the damages brought up you know the options are there i mean if

there is much is western media likes to demonize why the mere putin the options out there aren't that credible aren't that interesting actually. that's why i think russian virtuousness such a person is relatively apathetic partly because they think there isn't much of a real choice and secondly because they think that putin is going to win will be organized but he wins whatever the voters do so i think there's probably more even if he wins and even if we give even if he wins it's rigged i mean it seems to me that kind of argument caved in on itself erick if i can go to you i mean it's just hard for the outside world to understand the drive to me a building is popular. well there's something very embarrassing for the journalists which is since two thousand they have been warning us every issue of the economist every issue of the f.t. about the catastrophes which are about to hit russia and the only problem with these catastrophes is they just don't seem to occur now if you read the press

a few weeks ago there were these warnings that putin was finished he was done for and now the he's going to be massively reelected now. there is some degree of apathy i agree there have been some reforms which have been deadly conducted but you've got to realize we're talking about a country which twelve years ago was at the brink of the solution was falling apart could not pay its own bills could not feed its people and you now have a wealthy middle class country with an uncertain foreign policy which may not please the west but tends to please the westerners so to please the russians so. the point is that putin has incarnated the votes vox populi in russia the russians the not the people not necessarily the upper middle class who speak english and live in moscow and go on facebook but the dog the people in the countryside the

people in the smaller cities the working class see themselves in putin it's what's extraordinary is after twelve years in power he says popular as he is and he's going to win the election by a very wide margin and i think this is going to be embarrassing for some of the journalists who were predicting his demise you know if jonathan i go back to you one of the things i'm living here in moscow one of the things i find is very interesting there is a generational difference and i think it was really spot on there there's a there's a generation that remembers the absolute agony of the one nine hundred ninety s. and then we have a younger generation of people that don't do not remember that because they were so young and they've been brought up with amenities and i'm talking about moscow st petersburg are the major cities that you know that their western peers can identify with but then we have on the other hand a huge silent majority in this country i mean not everyone lives in moscow and st peter's square. well that's true but i think russia has a huge internet audience numbers of people who go on the web is probably higher

than in the in many europe western european countries so that they are even if they are living you know miles away from the borders of russia they are over the internet through cyberspace to the rest of the world and i think there is a among this younger generation to do talk about that doesn't remember the disaster of the yeltsin years and that is only you know coming perhaps to the election for the first time in their lives there is a great sense that they want things to be changed they want russia to be more like other countries they want to get rid of the corruption they want to get rid of the cynicism but they see it a lot of the us and i think that is why some of them may not voted tool because they're disgusted with the system and others may vote for anybody but putin just to register the fact that they want to change they want a different elite this one has had twelve years as you say in power maybe it's time for a different one ok but it's been a very successful twelve years to relatively speaking go ahead well you likely will see if your words you know i agree with john and to leave. me here this is

certainly all right you're going to jump in with a game or. it is not this is a they people of the russian people may want change but if they want change quite frankly it's not the change that the west wants to see if we look at the legislative elections the liberal opposition got crushed there there was some falsified cation of results but the overall results were maybe off by five percent they were pretty much reflected the will of the russian people that if you believe in democracy then you just have to let the people vote the way they want to and the communists. advanced quite substantially in the election and the extreme national sleep prepared vance it was a very very small vote for those people who want russia to be more like the rest of the world i think the russian people want the russians on very likely with this or

a very poor there was a very very good for the united russia party which is the ruling party politician even gave instructions are very very slow very much astonished so so so this idea that people love united russia and last guten i think let's wait until the election results come through well i would. agree with you no no russia is going to be my first i agree with a lot of what jonathan just said but you know just two years ago i was completely agree that russian voters are a mistake now that's not the case very good that's not the case you know my niece was very young who didn't go to vault at the last election and who never was interested in politics today she works as an observer in the election she's with broth of steam she dislikes proffer of to be frank with you but she went there because it's interesting you and courage of your is i want russia to be a country where people choose their leaders. hugh might choose putin eighty

percent sure she would vote for him because jonathan you. right you said the younger russians for the internet and you now have a lot of influence or something. i agree with you there are some people who are just angry with the government and who want to see change but they're not a majority even among the young people there are many young people who read foreign press in english or they read it on in the press some of them speak other languages and they just meet by their future of the foreign press which expects us to do something like an arab revolution here so there are also various you know impulse us inside russian society but in general i would say that the general trend right now is very good russia has become and normal country in a normal country you have some young people who like to drop a ball to government if the government doesn't all react there's going to be a normal country just don't expect if fifteen people with

a wide grievance you know a speech some kind of withdraw. at the red square on the street that doesn't mean we're going to have another nine hundred seventeen for more than just normal russians become a normal country ok jonathan i mean i can't agree with him on this one i mean i think the participation level is amazing for i've lived in this country for twelve years and for the first time in twelve years people actually talk about politics i think that's fantastic go ahead. you know i think that's absolutely right and i perfectly agree with with demers think there's. no serious and i would like to add one point which is that one must not confuse united russia with putin i think the united. and it was something in the legislative elections was much more a defeat for me and frankly i think that putin swap was mishandled was a bad idea putin should have simply modified the american jump in here really going to assure the bravery and i am sure that short break we'll continue our discussion on the approaching election state party.

if it's going to. russia votes for president archie most of the five running for the kremlin top job the candidates because of the popular billionaire estimated fortune eighteen billion dollars. the record keep those precious metals giants gotta go but sold out before the prices say to himself lilian's plan for the president's flooded ties ation adopting a used under is in production and releasing because other post controversy. push of l. two thousand and seven arrested and charged with organizing prostitutes for a christmas party clears two years later known abroad as owner of the n.b.a.

a new jersey nets basketball team is looking for a wife called forty six. presidential election two thousand and twelve on party. can. the man you cross i'm carol going to remind you we're talking about the march fourth presidential election in russia. you can. see. ok jonathan one of the things i kind of like i mean i don't like

to mimic the richard nixon because that's not my political flavoring but i mean he did talk about the the silent majority and they condemn the rise of conservatism in the united states and it seems to me that when we when we look at these protests that are televised on russian television and you can get to watch plenty of it on you tube if you want it is actually energize the silent majority because you know if you live outside of moscow and st petersburg you the amenities are not is great or you're right you can be on the internet that's fine ok you can be anywhere to be on the internet but the same time the amenities and i think a lot of people say look these people in moscow they're the ones that have benefited from twelve years of this political establishment and they're complaining about it and that's energized people outside of the major cities. well i think the main thing is that the people who can energize the protests are not doing it economically that's why it is different from the arab spring the arab spring had a strong religious element in the protests the protests in western europe in greece

and spain and portugal it's all about economics people who you know who are seeing their living standards caps and people who are mainly protesting in russia they're doing it for me for morality reasons if you like for ethical reasons they're not course they're not unemployed and so on as you point out but that doesn't devalue their protest and doesn't mean that you should drive a trade or a wedge between them and the rest of the country they in a sense of the leading edge because they're saying look there is too much corruption i'm not. so that himself when he was you know thought to be a powerful president unfortunately are not to be such and yet what he's done about corruption almost nothing all these disagreeable no i would. think outrageous law quite is you can write a point but i just a little point could i just finish the point i had all these russians who go they're not upper middle class you know you go only to the train to from domodedovo to to moscow and you see these are ordinary middle class kids who've been to sri lanka they've been through they've been through a trauma or shake or whatever it is they're not terribly wealthy but they've been

abroad and they want to come back to a country which they feel proud of and not ashamed of which many of them feel now because of the corruption in the service let me ask you as a russian about that. well i agree with jonathan on most of his points i would see that these protests are media protests very often just people are tired of seeing the same faces on television for twelve years and i think it's understandable and i think basically understood that something has to be changed i think you realized that there was too much of the same places so you know he's a year to write articles where he would explain to the people what he plans to do it was a very good day dear and. you know no russians returning from a place like egypt or russia we don't have exactly the same feeling we had twenty years ago or twenty years ago i remember the feeling was terrible you know you we felt joy you know when we went abroad and we felt depressed when we came home and

now you look at them i get a look even at the usually meteor these are not places you're ashamed of when you come back sometimes you have to pay money but this is a completely different country so indeed i would say that this is indeed an interesting situation where you have indeed some new you know impulses pushing people to be more active some of them go to cross there some of them make my niece become of service but i don't expect a revolution in russia i expect gradual improvement eric you want to jump in there on article number of points go ahead. yeah i think that first of all if you're flying from heathrow to today on the death of a new one of the proud of russia because. the there has been so much there this really great deal of improvement. we're talking i mean people tend to they ok they want new faces well this is not

a television reality show this is the governance of the country and i would suspect that a large percentage of the russian people feel well things could be better things could always be better but they are getting better and if you're coming from egypt back to russia i don't really think there's much to feel ashamed and if you're coming from now your spain where i'm speaking from right now is in st louis perilous economic situation one of the problems is when we talk about russia people tend to russians in particular tend to speak like as soon as she got across the border you were in heaven you were in countries ruled by the holy ghost now i would look at the appalling deterioration of the democratic process in the united states and great extent in the u k. and these sort of economic hairy kiri which is being carried out in the west in western europe and maybe the russians sort of look abroad and say do we want do we want to live like that we want to have the same

problems that we do and maybe the answer is not and if you go back you want to time when the russians were ashamed to be russian look at the one nine hundred ninety s. look at the yeltsin years when basically we had a government which was very largely beholden to the west which was very popular because they were doing what washington and brussels and london welcomed them to do . and the situation was not a happy one and so right now i think russians can feel a certain pride in the fact their country is independent and is assertive and is increasingly wealthy you know jonathan i think one of the interesting things is that. in looking at political change of the last twenty years it's going to be a little bit more global here is that you know when. the first putin was first president he introduced a number of political reforms that a lot of people were very skeptical about but we were talking about governors about me threshold for political parties signatures signatures for candidates and things like that and that was in put in play and it created

a great deal of stability now we're hearing these sounds that you know now they're going to ease down on some of those things there so they really would be the political route we need political reform with the dance been in the economy with the financial sector and things like that there needs to be a little bit more balance there don't you think. you know i think that was and i hope that after the election there will be some kind of clamping down on this and all this political activity that we've seen over the last six to nine months would be you know pressures on us. and so on i mean i just hope it will remain relaxed and not sort of punish people go in the obviously direction be you know what do you think about that i think that you know people are you know i said repeatedly on this station that i'm so happy to see a protest movement here because it gets everybody into a conversation of our politics about their future of their country and we're seeing it now and i think it's healthy and i think i think the ruling elite. be very frank with you now. you know. not employed now by the un or wish to see it all

clearly. there is a problem with the russian position i hope there will not be any command down from the government but i hold will see some new faces in their position you specially in the media part of your work yes because the media people inside their position they have been the same for eighteen nineteen twenty years they have been here for a margin longer than that mr bolton and indeed there is a problem in all during these meetings few people noticed there but during these meetings i would of people in the crowd out were not quite happy with the people who are standing at the podium the problem is they didn't have an alternative so i hope we will have some i would turn it if not the nationalists like crew off always mean more of who cracked up to be a real racist read his next. last article in good and stay in or not these kind of

racists but you know really liberal moderate maybe social democratic european thinking people in the best sounds of the world european not in the sense of the mordant you think you're not ok erica frankly i think i'm really glad to be miraculous now because we're looking at the nature of the eye. position here there's a lot of really nasty elements in it and i think a lot of western media doesn't like to focus in on it because it's embarrassing ok and we have these cultural. communists you know socialist that want to reprivatize the economy and then you go to the other extreme that are just skinheads and you have national polls to expect it's this kind of embarrassing to talk about them and it's everyone's put under the same rubric of oh they're white ribbon nice people that drive s.u.v.s. the mayor the mayor is so right in and work he says i have lived in russia for the last fifteen years and i've been basically following it for twenty and the quality of the opposition has been systematically

poor and it's now popular to blame tooting for that but it was equally bad during the yeltsin years. and we take some of the people who lionized by the western press we have perspire of who's madder than i had are we have. no value who is clearly paid by the americans we have. there is it's really very difficult to find profit off who. can't really be taken terribly seriously. russia is not really ready for a berlusconi and i struggle to find a you know does need an opposition and we need political change and certainly i mean i take a counterpoint to the western press the sort of demonization of putin but he's not perfect and his mortal and we're going to political system is going to have to evolve towards a more poorly stick system and thus far i don't see it happening i'm not sure the

russian opposition is going to be pretty sort of western style liberal one but even if it's sort of a nationalistic. patriotic our position but one which represents the which is of the russian people this would be very important if it only could provide some prospect of alternation of government in some time going forward ok jonathan if i go back to you in london i mean when you said you worry about a possible clampdown i would say just reverse i think i worry about seeing this this this opposition group just tear itself apart because as usual russian intellectuals they just love to be you know alpha dog you know and you know in then people going to walk away if i can't run it then you know i'm not going to be part of it. it's not my party i'm not going to participate and we've seen that systematically for the last twenty years everyone likes the blame the current ruling elite but the fact of the matter is that these people have never been able to agree among themselves and maybe what they need is a new face and they could in the old opposition and some of the names already been

mentioned will step aside do you think that's a possibility well i don't know but i mean i think there's some contradictions in what you just said on the one hand you talk about the opposition as a monolith sort of saying this opposition is hopeless two minutes later you say this opposition. has one thing in common they're against one person so it's not contradictory whatsoever after the fact then it will become very contradictory but i think i think you know i think you're out of date i mean i have this many of these protests. this is the speakers were chosen by the members of the demonstration on the web saying who they're very noisy here because i didn't work because they ended up with some of the most ugly characters and i'm afraid gentlemen will run out of time many thanks to my guest today here in the studio in london and in madrid and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are to see you next time and remember crosstalk.