and then something else here's part of it and realize that everything you thought you knew you don't. charge is a big issue. here's a look at the top stories plans to intervene in syria reportedly take shape among the u.s. and its allies aspire russia and the arab league putting forward a plan for a political solution the u.n. security council is meeting to discuss the situation in a war torn syria later on monday. american tactics in afghanistan come under question once again as a u.s. soldier kills sixteen people most of them children are gone rampage falls mass

protests last month a work of burning of copies of the koran at an american military base. and in spain's thousands for a test of the cards and labor reforms they fear might cost them their jobs the new laws are designed to revitalize the economy and stay in the euro party visited a town that's already given up on the crisis hit single currency. best middlebrow quizzes he's gassed whether the west is controlling the middle east geopolitical fate i always abates heading your way in cross talk here on r.t. . if you can. start. to. flow in welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle recasting the arab middle east and beyond what is the condition of the arab spring our humanitarian interventions effective what about the law of unintended consequences and is the west still

determining the geopolitical fate of this past week to. kick. start. the process not the future of the arab world and muslim lands i'm joined by richard white's in washington he is a senior fellow and director of the center for political military analysis at the hudson institute and an expert at wilkie stop also in washington we have james phillips he is the senior research fellow for middle eastern affairs at the douglas and sarah allison center for foreign policy studies at the heritage foundation and in london we go to doubt he is the current deputy secretary general of the muslim council of britain all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want richard i'd like to go to you first you know i do and i this is a very broad brush program looking at a lot of events of the last year about a year ago the west was very concerned with the possibility of islamic democracies

and they were very worried about it all the way from tunisia to let's say iraq i mean is that those fears been allayed now. that's a really good question i mean you probably can see common trend since there's been no i mean right out several decades ago you often see these waves of social mobilization in the market as asian so what started off in tunisia started spreading to other parts of the arab world and the common trends are people are more open about protesting express dissatisfaction using social networks but i think think the key variable has been their regime response when their genius responded very ineffective lee as in tunisia there was power. when there is probably no way then tag in the eyes of the international community and they're not that strong as in face of libya well the new stuff international intervention in other cases. syria iraq possibly

it's still unclear because the the regime says it's part of the war effectively in the sense that they've managed to contain the spread of violence but i think we have to look at this as a way to and i said about the french revolution it's too early to tell what their long term impact will be exactly james what do you think about it because it's seems to me is that as we go through this process here change if it's going to be done indigenously like we saw in tunisia. and then we see you know it's outside intervention and i think we all agreed it really is kind of in a mess here because we see regionalism we see the federal state very strong like getting stronger and then we have syria and the longer we go into this process the more regimes learn how to be pain their control ok and in this case of syria to use military forces and we see outside intervention too if it's legitimate or legal or illegal we see this internationalized the same question do you see major trends

or is it just one off each time. well i would agree with what richard said the base. the motivation of many of these movements is a quest for freedom economic freedom political freedom in some cases religious freedom but each country of course is unique. the course of the revolution depends on the response of the regime the strength of the regime the degrees to which it bends with the wind and makes compromises or in the case of. brutally tries to put down their own people. in there it's unclear where the revolution may go in the future although i think there are many common denominators about the beginnings of these revolutions but revolutions are

very hard to predict they can be hijacked as we saw in the french revolution. the russian revolution the iranian revolution so it's very difficult to predict what's going to happen go and have ok now if i go back to you in london i mean how much is this these changes in the in the arab world in north africa and beyond i mean has to do with geopolitics because khadafi was a loved by the west i mean deeply embraced him but doing they had a chance they'd drop him very quickly like a hot brick and then here is the side i mean this is again it's a very international i situation right here where the countries like russia and china saw the united nations security council through the united states and its allies have views what a lot of people say resolution one thousand nine hundred eighty three she topple the regime i mean and we've gotten through some kind of process here where. it's

the west sees this is an opportunity for regime change when it at one point time it's really actually about what's happening on the ground and what people want there i mean what's happening in syria is extremely unclear. well there is no doubt that there are significant international geopolitical interests across the region but it varies from one part to another if you recall in the case of tunisia initially the french foreign minister came she offered to. support of the french military and she actually called for intervention to save. g.m. . ultimately that cost little or her job. clearly differentiated geopolitical interests here but if we look at the case of syria i think the prospects of well intervention whether we call it liberal or not it's much

more constrained because syria is part of a larger geopolitical bloc unlike tunisia one is you know was very much on its own in north africa but there's syria as part of our bloc that constitutes bad. mass class. and beirut of course a guy under the tutelage after and for this reason. intervention in syria will not be targeted against the damascus regime course not against this larger bloc and hence the reason the hesitancy to intervene in syria militarily here richard what do you think of i think it's a very good point that we just heard here i mean we you know you we can all talk about a liberal intervention is helping people responsibility rick to protect all these

nice things ok democracy but then when it gets down to something so geo political importance a country like syria all of it or a great deal that goes to the wayside it's just pure pragmatic geopolitics. not for everybody ok for i think for example it would be hard to explain turkey's policy toward syria if if you if i mean that unless you understood the. feeling in the scene there for us all sunni muslims being killed i think that you mean there are certainly different instances now i mean the obvious difference between what we saw and libya and what we're seeing in syria is the west intervened in libya not in syria militarily and i think it's i mean i think that's explained by the fact that syria is a much harder country to conduct a military operation against and it would be i mean you really would have to have a much more correct role of western forces and they had in the past in libya supporting indeed the indigenous forces so it's i mean and i'm sure you break it down by individual people though some people are very much motivated by more

factors in terms of how they're viewing what's happening in the middle east towards others it's more instrumental economic or political that's hard to generalize that's why we're doing this program here james what do you think i mean if it were possible for a military intervention successful military intervention in syria would you support it. would go from here to. pose a direct u.s. military unit venture in syria why you could i mean why is that. in syria ok it sounds like in this case why is that. in part because we think there is or a war brewing in the future between the u.s. and iran and it would i think will be a mistake to get bogged down in syria in an open ended humanitarian intervention the us did not have a very good experience with humanitarian intervention in somalia where we went in

to feed starving somalians and ended up getting in fights with somalian militias who were the problem who were starving their own people and taking the food so well you know if this was an isolated case and you know there wasn't a possible war with iran on the horizon then i would look at it differently but i would not want to get into some kind of humanitarian intervention to me if you're going to intervene you should go after the cause of the problem and that's the regime and to me if the only worthwhile objective would be to get rid of that regime but then of course once that's done you know military force can destroy things but it's very hard to believe we learned that in libya didn't we i know if i go back to you in london what about an equal look at what form of intervention if

any would you support a deal in looking at syria today. well let me say first of all i think it has to be criminalized on the on the on the popular consensus the people of syria should unfortunately at the present time don't seem to speak with unanimity in terms of of intervention and there are those who call for direct intervention and those who call for a corridor. of the no fly zone unlike libya where there was a much more strong force a forest consensus both from the arab league and the and the libyan people but that as my colleague just mentioned in the case of libya we are seeing is the sad consequences to this that benghazi is almost threatened and call in for herself i thought i mean i understand of libya and serve as we knew it over the last fifty

years is very much hanging in the balance in the case of syria what will happen and the military intervention will not be a quick quick job it will take telling it will be protracted because baghdad will support the regime in damascus and this not protracted military confrontation in syria will also lead to the possible fragmentation of the spirit and this is the danger ok we can also see a possibility for our petition there are a german we're going to go to a short break and after that tropical continue our discussion of the geopolitical fate of the middle east stays with our feet. just. to get straight. to the it's. just. my. thank you

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welcome back across our time people about how much we're talking about the fate of the arab spring. ok richard if i go back to you in washington one of one of the criticisms that the west always gets during the these amazing changes going on in north africa in the arab world is that you know it was that it was the west it was supporting dictators because of the tradeoff was always you know the dictators will create security will be a good ally ok and the democracy was not high on the agenda and we go through this phase where there is hesitation in dealing with you know these democratic movements and then finally there's a there is a considerable concern in the west about the fate of democracy but there's a there's a lot of wiggle room there saudi arabia there's qatar there's the palestinian issue eccentric cetera i mean to what degree is the west

a major power still determining the geo political fate of this region and i can think of what's going on with egypt right now for example. so i think there are two questions in venue where you just said i think your description is accurate that for some people the democratization agenda is very important for others it's not but there are of course competing goals in each case so even those people those who are really considered democracy really important. as i mean for the basically what you said is what secretary clinton and president already said that they in the past we didn't emphasize democratization enough still in other cases trade offs or to come in geopolitical factors oil other sources. but respect to the question of how much influence the u.s. has a slightly different question and so it's a mystery at the impact of policy and there are you know what we're seen is it's a lot harder than it was earlier for the for foreign powers to be able to determine

events in these countries because of the fact that people are trying to empower themselves to see the social revolutions so clear the me that the west short of a military intervention can really determine the outcome and even then you we've seen this in our in iraq afghanistan and libya that is why it's the us removes its forces or the regime of course takes on a dynamic of its own as you would expect. so people are struggling then trying to even when they want to influence you know what other alternative tools are there of soft power economic but it's difficult and in a way that's not bad it means that people are local people i mean they are saying a term in their own future as long as you do end up with the people rather than you know local to caterers wherever are is the cases that are often the case in the civil war ever has the strongest force it's interesting james i mean you could see that so you really in qatar for example are very good sara good for the united states and its allies and we look it's going on with bahrain because again that's

a huge double standard right there where the united states and its allies will talk about democratization in some places but it's pretty much my. word on bahrain i mean that's where the geopolitical l.d. comes into it how much is it value about there the level of hypocrisy because people on the ground will say well you know the tunisians can have it you know the palestinians can't have it of course ok and then bahrain is they can't have it as well i mean how how does this skew the whole democracy issue that the west talks about a one on one side of its mouth but then can use military force on the other side. where i think there are some in the west that are pressing saudi arabia and bahrain to hold the elections but i think the problem is that too often things get simplified to say that marker see equals evil actions and really elections are just one of the last phases of time our prosy there has to be a supporter of civil society that respects the rule of law and that there are

protections for minority rights so you don't end up with a tyranny of the majority. but in general. you know a situation like bahrain is difficult although it's much easier to or rectify if you consider that some of the protesters in bahrain want the iranian style of government which would lead to even less freedom for their people less genuine democracy and you know everything gets confused. waters become muddy because everybody's speaking about the mark received what they. often mean very different things ok though do in one line if i go to you i mean again it seems to be a huge double standard right there and i'm not really sure how many people in bahrain want to have an iranian style government i've heard that before but i haven't seen much evidence of it. is it is this is the west still tainted by supporting very

medieval regimes like saudi arabia and qatar is the last country that comes to my mind when democracy is mentioned. yes i do think that this is a case on the streets throughout the arab region you know the manner in which. the west has engaged in this trade off between stability on the one hand and democracy on the other for decades the opted for stability at the expense of democracy but over the last year i believe that there is a rethink in some quarters it in the west that the time has come to really respect the views of the people in the region they have clearly demonstrated their desire for a genuine independence for participation and respect for the rule of law. the west cannot treat em what will happen and therefore has to give it to the emergent

forces the newly elected governments an opportunity to to root or govern and to prove themselves but if they fail then they can be disregarded but to predict and to say well they will establish democracy to ships i don't think is this is a very option now in the region and. the newly elected governments have to made it clear that they are less concerned about about ideology and more adult about values and interests and national interests and not just as i think. western governments will be able to engage in a meaningful discourse on the basis of. respect and the protection of hot interest in the west it's basic interest in the middle east the flow of oil the security of israel one such as government i don't think i would care much about the nature of the regime as we have seen in the past ethical richard i think that we're just

a very good point which are not created i think it's interesting with the course of the last year i grew over a year ago people say well these are. samik cards are going to take over and people are a little you know scared about that but we have seen with the nation with libya and and we have in iraq as well i mean you you have these parties that are coming to power coming have come to power coming or are into the process of coming to power and they don't seem very scary scary is they did at one point i mean is the west learning learning to understand that the islam can have its own democratic values and institutions. well we've always had this debate about whether or if the if they come if the islamist parties who are in the cold war with communist parties of the time to power could see ellaline of their or their beliefs you know the primary challenge of governing and having to fight social services having to have an effective economy and the evidence is mixed i mean so far you're right the

muslim brotherhood in egypt as pursued i mean it's actually generally seen as a more moderate branch of the movement compared to some of the second party which is much more extremist. and but you know libya there's still this nagging doubt over how that dynamic is going to play itself out. bahrain were. things i'm mentioning and find what you guys because of the fact that as the struggle progresses the extremists tend to strengthen so you're seen as interior seen this and that rain that the opposition being frustrated more towards extremist solution it's now the hope is when the coffee again so that we've gone back and we saw no. and i mean the work the west like everybody else is sort of grappling with this issue about how do you if you do have a change in regime control you end up with a democratic government and or he's

a not oppressive one and this is the problem that we're facing in iraq. the dynamics are leading to basically we are fearing or we create another saddam hussein type government which despite our best efforts so i'm not sure the west is learn the lessons and i'm sure the lessons are yet i still think i know why my son when there's a military intervention in iraq in libya it usually ends very badly and you don't get anything that you were hoping for what do you think about that james. well i think. you know wars have unintended consequences and although the u.s. did defeat saddam hussein in iraq. when it turned over control of iraq to the different political parties then as iraq we covered it sovereignty u.s. influence was very limited and i think it is extremely limited today perhaps overshadowed by iranian influence but that's you know the decision of the raw iraq

east and i would expect in libya to the. you know as they say in the middle east no good deed goes unpunished so. you know all the libyans and i have a good feeling about being delivered from could be if this revolution becomes factionalized and there is a. struggle for power then i think those good feelings could disappear pretty quickly so there's no you know a permanent store credit i would say in the middle east although you know i think the u.s. is perceived to be your more benign power even by many islamic after libya ok doubt if i got it to you to learn if we are being heard if you heard to begin the program we just heard of the law of unintended consequences ok i posited the if he says that military interventions really do make that term of the law of

unintended consequences very very meaningful in a geopolitical sense. what i'd like to say in this regard is that in the case of libya libya was a bit of a people it didn't have a function instead before the uprising and i mean gaddafi had more judiciary he was the states he and his family there was no local constitution more parliament as as we know it and this was the problem once he was overthrown the libyan people found themselves in a situation where they had to build a state from scratch from zero and this is a problem because the both of us we are seeing the growth plans of us there from from its very beginning and so too in iraq what happened to all guns on the staple or the smokers made the judiciary. everything was dismantled and this is why we had him and confusion that followed you know after the defeat of saddam hussein in

tunisia institutions are still remained in place we had the parliament it had been judiciary. and electoral process was able to creation and i'm going to jump in here we'll run out of time fascinating discussion about the fate of the arab spring many thanks my guest today in washington and in london and thanks to our viewers for watching as you are to see you next time and remember possibly. taking the. stage. if you. will.

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