this is r.t. in a moment as. the headlines intervention into syria is reportedly in the works among washington and its allies despite russia and the arab league readying a peace plan the u.n. security council is meeting to discuss the situation in a war torn syria. and u.s. troops are put on a high after a u.s. soldier killed sixteen people most of them children in a gun rampage american tactics in afghanistan come under question once again.

at labor reforms. as thousands protest changes they fear will put them on the breadline analyse visited a town that's already given up on the crisis hit single car. quizzing his guests whether the west is controlling the middle east geo political fate or some other feisty debate coming your way right now and crossed. taking. the low in welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle recasting the arab middle east and beyond what is the condition of the arab spring our humanitarian interventions effective what about the law of unintended consequences and is the west still determining the geopolitical fate of this past region. live

can still live. to cross stop the future of the arab world and muslim lands i'm joined by richard whites in washington he is a senior fellow and director of the center for political military analysis at the hudson institute and an expert at look east at also in washington we have james phillips he is the senior research fellow for middle eastern affairs at the douglas and sarah allison center for foreign policy studies at the heritage foundation and in london we go to out of dallas he is the current deputy secretary general of the muslim council of britain all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want richard i'd like to go to you first you know i do and i this is a very broad brush program looking at a lot of events over the last year about a year ago the west was very concerned with the possibility of islamic democracies and they were very worried about it all the way from tunisia to let's say iraq i mean is that those fears been allayed now. that's

a really good question i mean you probably can see common art trends since there's been i mean i sang on in florida right out several decades ago you often see these waves that social novelization in a marker as asian so what started off in tunisia started spreading through other parts of the arab world and the common trends are people are more open about protesting express dissatisfaction using social networks but i think the key variable has been the regime response when their genius responded very ineffectively as in tunisia there was power. when they're responding a way that antagonize the international community and they're not that strong as in face of libya well then you suffer international intervention in other cases. and syria iraq possibly it's it's still unclear i mean because the the

regime says it's valid and worth fact of only in the sense that they've managed to contain the spread of violence but i think we have to look at this as a way to and i said about the french revolution it's too early to tell what the long term impact will be exactly james what do you think about that because it's seems to me is that as we go through this process here change if it's going to be done indigenously like we saw in tunisia. and then we see you know it's outside intervention and i think we all agree that libya is kind of in a mess here because we see regionalism we see the federal state not a very strong ally getting stronger and then we have syria and the longer we go into this process the more regimes learn how to maintain their control ok and in this case of syria to use military forces and we see outside intervention too if it's legitimate or legal or illegal we see this internationalized the same question to you do you see major trends or is it just one off each time.

well i would agree with what richard said the base. the motivation of many of these movements is a quest for freedom and economic freedom political freedom in some cases religious freedom but each country of course is unique. the course of the revolution depends on the response of the regime the strength of the regime and the degrees to which it bends with the wind and makes compromises or in the case of khadafi or assad brutally tries to put down their own people. in there it's unclear where the revolution may go in the future although i think there are many common denominators about the beginnings of these revolutions but revolutions are very hard to produce they can be hijacked as we saw in the french

revolution the russian revolution we are running in revolution so it's very difficult to predict what's going to happen go on ahead ok you know if i go back to you in london i mean how much is this these changes in the in the arab world in north africa and beyond i mean has to do with geopolitics because khadafi wasn't loved by the west i mean they may embrace him but when they had a chance they'd drop him very quickly like a hot brick and then here is the side i mean this is again it's a very international i situation right here where the countries like russia and china and saw the united nations security council to the united states and its allies have views with a lot of people say resolution one thousand seventy three to topple the regime i mean we've got we come through some kind of process here where. it's we do wesley's this is an opportunity for regime change when it at one point time it's really

actually about what's happening on the ground and what people want there and what's happening in syria is extremely unclear. well there is no doubt that there are significant international geopolitical interests across the region but it varies from one part to another if you recall in the case of tunisia initially the french foreign minister came she offered. this support of the french military and she actually called for intervention to save. g.m. . ultimately that costed or her job. clearly differentiated geopolitical interests here but if we look at the case of syria i think the prospects for intervention whether we call it liberal or not it's

much more constrained because syria is part of a larger geopolitical bloc unlike tunisia one is you know was very much on its own in north africa but there's syria because part of our block that constant towards baghdad mask us. and beirut of course guided under the tutelage of to her own reason. intervention in syria will not be targeted against the damascus regime per se but against this larger bloc and hence the reason they hesitate and see to intervene in syria militarily ok richard what do you think about that it's a very good point that we just heard here i mean we you know you we can all talk about a liberal intervention is helping people responsibility to protect all these nice things like a democracy but then we could stand or something so geopolitically important for

a country like syria or a great deal that goes to the wayside which is pure pragmatic geopolitics. not for everybody ok i think for example it would be hard to explain turkey's policy toward syria if you if. you understood the depth of feeling many turks just seen there are many muslims killed i think that i mean there are certainly different instances now i mean the obvious difference between what we saw and libya over seen syria is the west intervened in libya not in syria militarily and i think it's i mean i think that's explained by the fact that syria is just a much harder country to conduct a military operation against and it would be i mean you really would have to have a much more direct role of western forces then they had in the past in libya supporting the indigenous forces so it's i mean and i'm sure you break it down by individual people though some people are very much motivated by more factors in terms of how they're viewing what's happening in the middle east towards others

it's more instrumental economic and political so it's hard to generalize that's why we're doing this program here james what do you think i mean if it were possible for a military intervention successful military intervention in syria would you support it. if. we pose a direct u.s. military universe. why because why is there. in syria ok it sounds like this case why is that. in part because we think there is or a war brewing in the future between the u.s. and iran and it would i think will be a mistake to get bogged down in syria in an open ended humanitarian intervention the us did not have a very good experience with humanitarian intervention in somalia where we went in to feed starving somalians and it up getting in fights with

somalia militias who were the problem who were starving their own people and taking the food so you know if this was an isolated case. you know there wasn't a possible war with iran on the horizon and i would look at it differently but i would not want to get into some kind of humanitarian intervention to me if you're going to intervene you should go after the cause of the problem and that's the regime and to me if the only worthwhile objective would be to get rid of that regime but then of course once that's done you know military force can destroy things but it's very hard to but we learned that in libya didn't we i don't know if i go back to you in london what about and what kind of what form of intervention if any would you support and deal in looking at syria today. well let me say first of

all that i think it has to be criminalized on the on the on the popular consensus but the people of syria should unfortunately at the present time they don't seem to speak with you know and the miti in terms of of intervention there are those who call for direct intervention and those who call for corridor. or the north like zone on unlike libya where there was a much more strong force a forest consensus both from the arab league and the and the libyan people but that as my colleague just mentioned in the case of libya we are seeing the consequences today about benghazi is almost threatening and calling for herself but on the me understand of libya itself as we knew it over the last fifty years it is very much hanging in the balance in the case of syria what will happen any military

intervention will not be a quick job it will take time it will be protracted because that will support the regime in damascus and this and a protracted military confrontation in syria with also lead to the possible fragmentation of the state and this is the danger ok we can also see a possibility for partition there are a german we're going to go to a short break and after that tropical continue our discussion of the geopolitical fate of the middle east state with r.t. . going to. take you straight. to. the e.u. this respectable british gentleman is true and she was. pleased jackets to those

first. a much younger life. and more than twenty years of intelligence service in profits of the soviet union. killed his choice on parties. you know sometimes you see a story and it seems so you think you understand it and then something else you hear sees some other part of it and realize everything you thought you knew you don't i'm tired welcome to the big picture. taken. welcome back across i'm curious about the mind you were talking about the fate of

the arab spring. taking. a measured if i go back you in washington when one of the criticisms that the west always gets during the these amazing changes going on in north africa in the arab world is that you know it was that it was the west it was supporting dictators because that the tradeoff was always you know the dictators will create security will be a good ally ok and that democracy was not high on the agenda and we go through this phase where there is hesitation in dealing with you know these democratic movements and then finally there's a there is a considerable concern in the west about the fate of democracy but there is a there's a lot of wiggle room there saudi arabia there's qatar there's the palestinian issue eccentric cetera i mean to what degree is the west in major powers still determining the geo political fate of this region and i can think of what's going on with egypt right now for example. well i think there are two questions and ben what you just said i think your description is accurate that for some people the

democratization agenda is very important. there is it's not but there are of course competing goals in each case so even those people who support or really consider democracy really important. as a means for you know basically what you said is what secretary clinton and president already said that they in the past we didn't emphasize democratization enough still in other cases trade offs are going to come in geopolitical factors oil other sources. respect to the question of how much influence the u.s. has a slightly different question and so on so mr rection of policy put the impact of policy and there you know what we're seen is a lot harder than it was earlier to for foreign powers to deal with a term in events in these countries because of the fact that the people are trying to empower themselves you see the social revolutions so clear the me that the west have a military intervention can really determine the outcome and even then you we've

seen this in our and iraq afghanistan now libya that is it once the west removes its forces or the regime of course takes on a dynamic of its own as you would expect. so people are struggling then trying to even when they want to influence you know what other alternative tools are there of soft power economic but it's difficult and in a way that's not that's very bad it means that people are local people i mean they are saying determine their own future as long as you do end up with the people rather than you know the local papers are for is the case that often the case in a civil war ever has the strongest force it's interesting james i mean you could see that so you really in qatar for example are very good very good for the united states and its allies and we look it's going on with iran because again that's a huge double standard right there where the united states in fowler's we talk about democratization in some places but it's pretty much. the word on bahrain i mean that's where the geopolitical element comes into it. how much does it bother

you about that the level of hypocrisy because people on the ground will say well you know the tunisian is can have it you know the palestinians can't have it of course ok and then bahrain is they can't have it as well i mean how how does this skew the whole you democracy issue that the west talks about a one on one side of its mouth and then can use military force on the other side. and i think there are some in the west that are pressing saudi arabia and bahrain to hold elections but i think the problem is that too often things get simplified to say that democracy equals evil actions and really elections are just one of the last phases of democracy there has to be a support of civil society that respects the rule of law and that there are protections for minority rights so you don't end up with a tyranny of the majority. but in general. you know a situation like bahrain is difficult although it's much easier to. rectify

if you consider that some of the protesters in bahrain want the iranian style government which would lead to even less freedom for their people less genuine democracy and you know everything gets confused. waters because nobody because everybody's speaking about democracy but they. often mean very different things ok now in one line if i go to you i mean again it seems to be a huge double standard right there and i'm not really sure how many people in bahrain want to have an iranian style government i've heard that before but i haven't seen much evidence of it. is it is this is the west still tainted with by and by supporting very medieval regimes like saudi arabia and qatar as the last country that comes to my mind when democracy is mentioned. yes i do think that this is a case on the streets throughout the arab region you know the manner in which. the

west has engaged in this tradeoff between stability on the one hand and democracy on the other for decades opted for stability at the expense of democracy but over the last year i believe the day to rethink it in some quarters in the west as that the time has come to really respect this use of the people in the region they have clearly demonstrated their desire for a genuine independence for participation and can respect for the rule of law. they can the west cannot treat em what will happen therefore has to give the the emergent forces the newly elected government an opportunity to to root the government to prove themselves but if they fail then they can be disregarded but to to predict and to say well they were just average democracy dictatorships i don't

think is this is a very fair option now in the region and. the newly elected governments are made it clear that they are less concerned about about ideology and more about coupled w.'s adventurist national interests i cannot be specific i think the western governments would be able to engage in a meaningful discourse on the basis of mutual respect and protection of interests the west is vested interest in the middle east the flow of oil the security of israel once up is guaranteed i don't think i would care much about the nature of the regime as we have seen in the past. richard i tell you that we did have a good point richard i thirty eight i think it's interesting in the course of the last year i grew every year ago people say oh this is. these are going to take over and people are a little scared about that but we have seen with the knees and with libya that and

and then we have in iraq as well i mean you you have these parties that are coming to power coming have come to power coming or are into the process of coming to power and they don't seem very scary is that a is they did at one point i mean is the west learning learning to begin to understand that the islam can have its own democratic values and institutions. well we've always had this debate about whether or if the if they come if he is thomas parties or in the cold war was the time his party's for the time to power. that c m l i mean there are beliefs you know the primary challenge of governing having to fight social services having to have an effect on economy and the evidence is mixed i mean so far you're right the muslim brotherhood in egypt has pursued i mean it's actually generally seen as a more moderate branch of the islamist movement compared to some of these being the second party which is much more extremist. and but you know in libya there's still

this nagging doubt over or how that dynamic is going to play itself out. in bahrain were. things was sort of mentioned and find what you got because of the fact that as the struggle progresses the extremists tend to strengthen and so you're seeing this in syria you're seeing this and bahrain that the opposition being frustrated more towards extremist solutions' now the hope is when the kind of against that we've gone backwards son no. and i mean the west like everybody else is sort of grappling with this issue about how do you if you do have a change of regime control you end up with a democratic government or an or these are not oppressive one and this is a problem no replacement iraq. the dynamics are leading basically we are fearing what we create another saddam hussein type government which despite our best efforts so i'm not sure if the west has learned the lessons and i'm sure the

lessons are yet i still think you know one lesson when there's a military intervention in iraq in libya it usually ends very badly and you don't get anything near that you were hoping for what do you think about that james. well i think. you know wars have unintended consequences and although the u.s. did defeat saddam hussein in iraq. when it turned over control of iraq to the different political parties then as iraq we called it its sovereignty the u.s. influence was very limited and i think it is extremely limited today perhaps overshadowed by iranian influence but that's you know the decision of the iraq east and i would expect in libya to the. you know as they say in the middle east no good deed goes unpunished so. you know all the libyans and i have

a good feeling about being delivered from the if this revolution becomes factionalized and there is a. struggle for power then i think those good feelings could disappear pretty quickly so there's no you know a permanent store of credit i would say in the middle east although you know i think the u.s. is perceived to be our more benign power even by many islamic after libya ok doubt if i got it to you to let it be heard here in the beginning of the program we just heard a lot of unintended consequences ok i posited the if he says the military interventions you really do make that term the law of unintended consequences very very meaningful in a geopolitical sense. what i'd like to see in this regard is that in the case of libya libya was a bit of a people it didn't have

a function instead of before the uprising i mean gaddafi had more judiciary he was the state he had his family there was no local constitution more parliament as as we know it and this was the problem once he was overthrown the libyan people found themselves in a situation where they had to build a state from scratch from zero and this is a problem because the both of us think we are seeing the both pounds of us there from from its very beginning and sold through in iraq what happened to all guns on the staple of this no goods the army the judiciary. everything was dismantled and this is why we had him and confusion that followed you know after the defeat of saddam hussein in tunisia institutions are still remained in place we had the parliament we had the judiciary. and electoral process was able to.

jump in here we've run out of time fascinating discussion about the fate of the of the arab spring many thanks my guest today in washington and in london and thanks to our viewers for watching as you are to see you next time and we never lost our lives. ok. steve. just.

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