the future. is a half past the hour here and this is the time for you headlines u.n. security council foreign ministers prepare for the. syrian crisis live pictures right here in the u.s. and its allies now reportedly consider direct intervention again live pictures of the meeting from the u.n. headquarters in new york meantime russia's top diplomat says the calls for regime change are only fueling the conflict and military involvement would be

a disaster for the entire region. and. resignations of al-jazeera has a number of key started the. big news channels him protest the network is politicizing news and its reporting from syria is biased towards the opposition. demands justice for the massacre of sixteen civilians of why one u.s. soldier is just weeks after the budding of the koran by military personnel ignited anti american sentiment all across the country relations between the countries are further worsening as the u.s. and nato reduce troop numbers ahead of the two thousand and fourteen. is time for the time. on the west is controlling the middle east geo political fate a robust debate heading your way next. and

you can. follow in welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle recasting the arab middle east and beyond what is the condition of the arab spring are humanitarian interventions effective what about the law of unintended consequences and is the west still determining the geopolitical fate of this past region. can. cross stop the future of the arab world and muslim lands i'm joined by richard white's in washington he is a senior fellow and director of the center for political military analysis at the hudson institute and an expert at look east at also in washington we have james phillips he is the senior research fellow for middle eastern affairs at the douglas

and sarah allison center for foreign policy studies at the heritage foundation and in london we go today out of dallas he is the current deputy secretary general of the muslim council of britain all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want richard i'd like to go to you first you know i did and i this is a very broad brush program looking at a lot of events over the last year about a year ago the west was very concerned with the possibility of islamic democracies and they were very worried about it all the way from tunisia to let's say iraq i mean is that those fears been allayed now. that's a really good question i mean you probably can see common trend since there's been an employer right outside all day care you think though you often see these waves of social mobilization in a marker as a short sell what started off in tunisia started spreading through other parts of the arab world and the common trends are people are more open about protesting express dissatisfaction using social networks but i think the key variable is been

there is gene response when their team is responding very ineffective lee as in tunisia there was power. when they're responding a way that antagonize the international community and they're not that strong i think they said libya then yourself international intervention in other cases. syria iraq possibly it's still unclear because the the regime's there's been a war effectively in the sense that they've managed to contain the spread of violence but i think we have to look at this as a way to and i said about the french revolution it's too early to tell what the long term impact will be exactly james what do you think about it because it's seems to me is that as we go through this process here change if it's going to be done indigenously like we saw in tunisia. and then we see an out side intervention and i think we all agree that libya is kind of in a mess here because we see regionalism we see the federal state not very strong or

not getting stronger and then we have syria and the longer we go into this process the more regimes learn how to be tane their control ok and in this case of syria to use military forces and we see outside intervention too if it's legitimate or legal or illegal we see this internationalized of the same question do you see major trends or is it just one off each time. well i would agree with what richard said the base when the motivation of many of these movements is a quest for freedom economic freedom political freedom in some cases religious freedom but each country of course is unique in the course of the revolution depends on the the response of the regime the strength of the regime the degrees to

which it bends with the wind and makes compromises or in the case of khadafi or assad brutally tries to put down their own people. in there it's unclear where the revolution may go in the future although i think there are many common denominators about the beginnings of these revolutions but revolutions are very hard to predict they can be hijacked as we saw in the french revolution the russian revolution the iranian revolution so it's very difficult to predict what's going to happen and go on ahead ok now if i go back to you in london i mean how much is this these changes in the in the arab world in north africa and beyond i mean has to do with geopolitics because gadhafi wasn't loved by the west i mean they really embraced him but they would they had a chance they'd drop him very quickly like

a hot brick and then here is the side i mean this is again it's a very international i situation right here where the countries like russia and china saw the united nations security council to the united states and its allies abuse but a lot of people say resolution one thousand nine hundred three to topple a regime i mean and we've gotten through some kind of process here where. it's we see this is an opportunity for regime change when that at one point in time it's really actually about what's happening on the ground and what people want there i mean what's happening in syria is extremely unclear. well there is no doubt that there are significant international geopolitical interests across the region but it varies from form one part to another but if you recall in the case of tunisia initially the french foreign minister came she offered. this support of the french military and she actually called for intervention

to save. g.m. it ultimately that costed or her job. clearly differentiated geopolitical interests here but if we look at the case of syria i think the prospects for intervention whether we call it liberal or not it's much more constrained because syria in service part of the larger geopolitical bloc unlike an easier time as you know was very much on its own in north africa but there's syria that's part of our block that constitutes. the mask us. route of course guided under the tutelage after her own and for this reason. intervention in syria

will not be targeted against the damascus regime per se but against this larger bloc and hence the reason it has and then see to intervene in syria militarily richard what do you think about that if you will it's a very good point that we just heard here i mean we you know you we can all talk about a liberal intervention is helping people responsibility return to protect all these nice things ok democracy but then when it gets down to something so geo political importance a country like syria all of it or a great deal of it goes to the wayside it's just pure pragmatic geopolitics. not for everybody ok for i think for example it would be hard to explain turkey's policy toward syria if you if am in a unless you understood the depth of the feeling in many turks just seen there are there for all sunni muslims game killed i think that you mean there are certainly different instances now i mean the obvious difference between what we saw and libya and what we're seeing in syria is the west's intervene in libya and not in syria

militarily and i think it's i mean i think that's explained by the fact that syria is there is a much harder country to conduct a military operation against and it would be i mean you really would have to have a much more direct role of western forces that they had in the past and would be a supporting the indigenous forces so it's i mean and i'm sure you break it down by individual people though some people are very much motivated by moral factors in terms of how they're viewing what's happening in the middle east towards others it's more instrumental economic and political that's hard to generalize that's why we're doing this program here james what do you think i mean if it were possible for a military intervention successful military intervention in syria would you support it. if. we oppose a direct or u.s. military unit of syria why you're right because i mean why is there.

in syria ok it sounds like this case why is that. in part because we think there is or a war brewing in the future between the u.s. and iran and it would i think would be a mistake to get bogged down in syria in an open ended commanded tarion intervention the us did not have a very good experience with humanitarian intervention in somalia where we went in to feed starving somalians and get up getting in fights with somalian militias who were the problem who were starving their own people and taking the food so you know if this was an isolated case. you know there wasn't a possible war with iran on the horizon and i would look at it differently but i would not want to get into some kind of humanitarian intervention to me if you're going to intervene you should go after the cause of the problem and that's the

regime and to me if the only worthwhile objective would be to get rid of that regime but then of course once that's done you know military force can destroy things but it's very hard to believe we learned in libya didn't we i don't know if i go back to you in london what about eight look at what form of intervention if any would you supporting deal in looking at syria today. well let me say first of all i think it has to be premised on the on the on the copula concerns us the people of syria should unfortunately at the present time they don't seem to speak with you know and the miti in terms of of intervention there are those who call for direct intervention and those who call thought it is safe corridor or the north like zone on khan like libya where there was a much more strong and was

a forest consensus of both on the arab league and the libyan people but as my colleague just mentioned in the case of libya we are seeing the sad consequences so then that benghazi is almost threatened and calling for self autonomy and the state of libya itself as we knew it over the last fifty years is very much hanging in the balance in the case of syria what will happen any military intervention will not be a quick job it will take time it would be protracted because god will support the regime in damascus and i'm a protracted a military confrontation in syria with also need for the possible fragmentation of the state and this is the danger ok we can also see a possibility for partition there are a german we're going to go to a short break and after that tropical continue our discussion of the geopolitical state of the middle east state with arkie. going to.

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video on demand r.t.s. my old costs an r.s.s. feeds now in the palm of your. come. to. welcome back across i'm curious about the mind you were talking about the fate of the arab spring. can. live. a record if i go back to you in washington when one of the criticisms that the west always gets during the these amazing changes going on in north africa in the arab world is that you know it was that it was the west it was supporting dictators because of the trade off was always you know the dictators will create security will be a good ally ok and

a democracy was not high on the agenda and we go through this phase where there is hesitation in dealing with you know these democratic movements and then finally there's a there is a considerable concern in the west about the fate of democracy but there is the there's a lot of wiggle room there saudi arabia there's qatar there's the palestinian issue eccentric cetera i mean to what degree is the west a major power still determining the geopolitical fate of this region and i can think of what's going on with egypt right now for example. so i think there are two questions in venue what you just said i think your description is accurate that for some people to democratize ation agenda is very important. there is it's not but there are of course competing goals in each case so even those people who support the really consider democracy really important. as a means to do basically what you said is what secretary clinton and president already said that they in the past we didn't emphasize democratization enough still in other cases trade offs are and come in geopolitical factors well there are

sources. respect to the question of how much influence the u.s. has a slightly different question it's not so mr rection of policy but the impact of policy and there are you know what we're seen is a lot higher than it was earlier to for foreign powers to be able to charm and events in these countries because of the fact that people are trying to empower themselves you see these social revolutions so it's not clear the me that the west short of a military intervention can really determine the outcome and even then you we've seen this in iraq and iraq afghanistan and libya that is it once the west removes its forces or the regime of course takes on a dynamic of its own as you would expect. so people are struggling them trying to even when they want to influence you know what other alternatives are there of soft power economic but it's difficult and in a way that's not bad it means that people the local people i mean a greater say in

a term in the future as long as you end up with the people rule rather than you know local dictators or ever is the case is that often the case in the civil war if it has the strongest force it's interesting james i mean you could see that saudi arabia and qatar for example are very good sarah gets for the united states and its allies and when you look it's going on with iran because again that's a huge double standard right there where the united states and salaries will talk about democratization in some places but it's pretty much mum the. word on bahrain i mean that's where the geopolitical olney comes into it. how much is their value about their level of hypocrisy because people on the ground will say well you know deletions can have it you know the palestinians can't have it of course ok and then bahrain is they can't have it as well i mean how how does this skew the whole you know mark receive issue that the west talks about a one on one side of its mouth but then can use military force on the other side. i think there are some in the west that are pressing saudi arabia and bahrain can hold elections but i think the problem is that too often things get simplified to

say the marker see equals actions and really elections are just one of the last phases of the market see there has to be a supporter of civil society that respects the rule of law and that there are protections for minority rights so you don't end up with tyranny of the majority. but in general. you know a situation like bahrain is difficult although it's much easier to. rectify if you consider that some of the protesters in bahrain want the iranian style government which would lead to even less freedom for their people less genuine democracy and you know everything gets confused the waters become muddy because everybody's speaking about the mark received what they. often mean very

different things ok now do it in a in line if i go to you i mean again it seems to be a huge double standard right there and i'm not really sure how many people in bahrain want to have an iranian style government i've heard that before but i haven't seen much evidence of it. is it is that he's the west still tainted with by and by supporting very medieval regimes like saudi arabia and qatar is the last country that comes to my mind when democracy is mentioned. yes i do think that this is a case on the streets throughout the arab region you know the manner in which. the west has engaged in this trade off between stability on the one hand and democracy on the other for decades opted for stability in the expense of democracy but over the last year i believe that there is a rethink in some quarters it in the west has that the time has come to really respect his views of the people in the region and they have clearly demonstrated

their desire for genuine independence for participation and respect for the rule of law. the west cannot prepared what will happen and therefore has to give the emerging forces the newly elected government an opportunity to to root a government to prove themselves against the sale then they can be disregarded but to to predict and to say well they will establish democracy return to ships i don't think is this is a very fair option now in the region and. the newly elected government made it clear that they are less concerned about ideology and more about about values and interests and national interests and lobbyists this is i think. western governments will be able to engage in a meaningful discourse on the basis of mutual respect and the protection of our

park interests the west vested interests in the middle east the flow of oil the security of israel but one such as government i don't think i would care much about the nature of the regime as we have seen in the past i think richard i think we just a very good point which are not really i think it's interesting in the course of the last year i grew over a year ago people say all these. slummy cards are going to take over and people are a little you know scared about that what we're seeing with the nation with with libya and and we have in iraq as well i mean you you have these parties that are coming to power coming have come to power coming or are in the process of coming to power and they don't seem very scary scary is that a is they did at one point i mean is the west learning learning to begin to understand that the islam can have its own democratic values and institutions. well we've always had this debate about whether or if the if they come if the song is

parties or in a war with time these parties that come to power put that c m l i mean there are their beliefs you know the primary challenge of governing and having to provide social services having to have an effect of a kind to me and the evidence is mixed i mean so far you're right the muslim brotherhood in egypt has pursued i mean it's actually generally seen as a more moderate france and the islamist movement compared to some of the second place party which is much more extremist. and but you know in libya there's still this nagging doubt over all how that dynamic is going to play itself out. bahrain were. things with soaring mention and find what you got because of the fact that as the struggle progress is extreme this tend to strengthen and so you're seeing this interior scene this and the rain that the opposition being frustrated trying to more towards extremist solutions now the hope is when the conflict ends

that we've gone back and we saw no. and i mean the word the west like everybody else is are grappling with this issue about how do you if you do have to change the regime control you end up with democratic government and or lisa not oppressive one and worse this is the problem now are facing in iraq. the dynamics are leading basically we are fearing more we've created other systems same type government which despite our best efforts so i'm not sure the west is learn the lessons and i'm sure the lessons are yet i still don't i think i know one lesson when there's a military intervention in iraq in libya it usually ends very badly and you don't get anything near that you were hoping for what do you think it james. well i think. you know wars have unintended consequences and although the u.s. did defeat saddam hussein in iraq. and when it turned over control of iraq

to the different political parties then as iraq recovered its sovereignty u.s. influence was very limited and i think it is extremely limited today perhaps overshadowed by iranian influence but that's you know the decision of the raw iraq east and i would expect in libya to the. you know as they say in the middle east no good deed goes unpunished so. you know are the libyans and have a good feeling about being delivered from gadhafi if this revolution becomes factionalized and there is a. struggle for power then i think those good feelings could disappear pretty quickly so there's no you know a permanent store credit i would say in the middle east although you know i think the u.s. is perceived to be our more benign power even by many islamicists after

libya ok doubt if i go back to you don it will be our you heard it we heard the beginning of the program we just heard the law of unintended consequences ok i posited the if he says that military interventions really do make that term the law of unintended consequences very very meaningful in a geopolitical sense. it was what i like to say in this regard is that in the case of libya libya was a bit of a people it didn't have a function instead it before the uprising i mean gaddafi had no judiciary he was the states he and his family there was no local constitution more parliament as as we know it and this was the problem once he was overthrown the libyan people found themselves in a situation where they had to build a state from scratch from zero and this is a problem because the both of us we are seeing of both plans of us did from from

its very beginning and so too in iraq what happened in the balkans on the stairs well at this moment goods are made the judiciary everything was dismantled and this is why we had him and confusion that followed you know after the defeat of saddam hussein in tunisia the institutions of spirit remained in place we had the parliament we had the judiciary. and the electoral process was able to. jump in here we've run out of time fascinating discussion about the fate of the of the arab spring many thanks my guest today in washington and in london and thanks to our viewers for watching as you are to see you next time and remember last r.t. . if you stay. if you.

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