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can. start. to. flow in welcome across town peter lavelle recasting the arab middle east and beyond what is the condition of the arab spring are humanitarian interventions effective what about the law of unintended consequences and is the west still determining the geopolitical fate of this past region. can. stir the same. across not the future of the arab world and muslim lands i'm joined by richard white's in washington he is a senior fellow and director of the center for political military analysis at the hudson institute and an expert at wilkie stop also in washington we have james phillips he is the senior research fellow for middle eastern affairs at the douglas and sarah allison center for foreign policy studies at the heritage foundation and

in london we go to doubt he is the current deputy secretary general of the muslim council of britain all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want richard i'd like to go to you first you know i do and i this is a very broad brush program looking at a lot of events of the last year about a year ago the west was very concerned with the possibility of islamic democracies and they were very worried about it all the way from tunisia to let's say iraq i mean is that what those fears been allayed now. that's a really good question i mean you probably can see common trend since there's been several i mean product right out several decades ago you often see these waves of social normalization a marker of station so what started off in tunisia started spreading through other parts of the year world and the common trends are people are more open about protesting express dissatisfaction using social networks but i think the key variable has been the regime response when their genius responded very ineffective

lee as in tunisia it was power. when there is spying away then tag and eyes of the international community and they're not that strong as in the case of libya well then you suffer international convention in other cases. compare and syria iraq possibly it's still unclear i mean because the the regime says it's not worth actively in the sense that they've managed to contain the spread of violence but i think we have to look at this as a way of showing my side about the french revolution it's too early to tell what their long term impact would be exactly james what do you think about it because it's seems to me is that as we go through this process here change if it's going to be done in digitally like we saw in tunisia. and then we see you know it's outside intervention and i think we all agreed it would be is kind of in a mess here because we see regionalism we see the federal state very strong like

getting stronger and then we have syria and the longer we go into this process the more regimes learn how to maintain their control ok and in this case of syria to use military forces and we see outside intervention too if it's a legitimate or legal or illegal we see this internationalized the same question do you see major trends or is it just one off each time. well i would agree with what richard said the base when the motivation of many of these movements is across for freedom and economic freedom political freedom in some cases religious freedom party each country of course is unique. the course of the revolution depends on the response of the regime the strength of the regime and the degrees to which it bends with the wind and makes compromises or

in the case of code. tries to put down their own people. in there it's unclear where the revolution may go in the future although i think there are many common denominators about the beginnings of these revolutions but revolutions are very hard to predict they can be hijacked as we saw in the french revolution the russian revolution you ronny in revolution so it's very difficult to predict what's going to happen you go and have ok now if i go back to you in london i mean how much is this these changes in the in the arab world in north africa and beyond i mean has to do with geopolitics because khadafi wasn't loved by the west i mean they they embraced him but they when they had a chance they'd drop him very quickly like

a hot brick and then here is the side i mean this is again it's a very international i situation right here where the countries like russia and china saw the united nations security council through the united states and its allies abuse what a lot of people say resolution one thousand nine hundred eighty three she topple the regime i mean and we've got we've gone through some kind of process here where . it's the west sees this is an opportunity for regime change when one point in time it's really actually about what's happening on the ground and what people want there i mean what's happening in syria is extremely unclear. well there is no doubt that there are significant international geopolitical interests across the region but it varies from one part to another if you recall in the case of tunisia initially to french foreign minister. she offered to. support of course the french military and she actually called for intervention to

save. g.m. . ultimately that cost little her job. clearly differentiated geopolitical interests here but if we look at the case of syria i think the prospects for intervention whether we call it liberal or not it's much more constrained because syria so it's part of a larger geopolitical bloc but unlike tunisia when israel was very much on its own in north africa but syria is part of a bloc that that constitutes. mask us. and beirut of course a guy did under the tutelage after her and i thought this reason. intervention

in syria will not be targeted against the damascus regime can say against this larger block and hence the reason it hasn't and see to intervene in syria militarily ok richard what do you think about because if you will it's a very good point that we just heard here i mean you know you we can all talk about a liberal interventions helping people responsibility repair to protect all these nice things ok to democracy but then when it gets down to something so geopolitically importance a country like syria or a great deal that goes to the wayside it's just pure pragmatic geopolitics. not for every probably ok i think for example it would be hard to explain turkey's policy toward syria if you if. you understood the depth of the feeling in the scene there are all sunni muslims being killed i think that you mean there are certainly different instances now i mean the obvious difference between what we saw and libya and what we're seeing in syria is the west intervened in libya and not in

syria militarily and i think it's i mean i think that's explained by the fact that syria is there is a much harder country to conduct the military operation against and it would be i mean you really would have to have a much more correct role of western forces they did then they had in the past in libya supporting the the indigenous forces so it's i mean and i'm sure you break it down by individual people though some people are very much motivated by moral factors in terms of how they're viewing what's happening in the middle east towards others it's more instrumental economic geopolitical it was hard to generalize because it's why we're doing this program here james what do you think i mean if it were possible for a military intervention successful military intervention in syria would you support it. or will go from here to. pose a direct u.s. military unit venture in syria why you are right because why is that. in syria ok it sounds like in this case why is that. in

part because we think there is or a war brewing in the future between the u.s. and iran and it would i think would be a mistake to get bogged down in syria in an open ended commanded terry in a ranch and the u.s. did not have a very good experience with humanitarian intervention in somalia where we went in to feed starving somalians and it up getting in fights with somalia militias who were the problem who were starving their own people and taking the food so war you know if this was an isolated case. you know there wasn't a possible war with iran on the horizon then i would look at it differently but i would not want to get into some kind of humanitarian intervention to me if you're going to intervene you should go after the cause of the problem and that's the

regime and to me if the only worthwhile objective would be to get rid of that regime but then of course once that's done you know military force can destroy things but it's very hard to believe we learned in libya didn't we i don't know if i go back to you in london what about and what kind of what form of intervention if any would you support and deal in looking at syria today. well let me say first of all that i think it has to be premised on the under on the popular consensus but the people of syria should unfortunately at the present time don't seem to speak with unanimously with in terms of of intervention there are those who are calling for direct intervention and those who call for a serious corridor. or a no fly zone unlike libya where there was a much more strong force

a forest consensus both on the arab league and the and the libyan people but as my colleague just mentioned in the case of libya we seem to have this sad consequences today that benghazi is almost threatening and call in for herself the time let me understand of libya itself as we knew it over the last fifty years it is very much hanging in the balance in the case of syria what will happen any military intervention will not be a quick a quick drop to it what it would take telling it would be protracted because baghdad will support the regime in damascus and this is an approach or activity the military confrontation in syria will also lead to the possible fragmentation of the state and this is the danger ok we can also see a possibility of our petition there are a german we're going to go to a short break and after that tropical continue our discussion of the geopolitical fate of the middle east eight with our king.

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old free blog video for your media and free media. tom. bodett. a. mock up. welcome back to people imagine we're talking about the fate of the arab spring. ok richard if i go back to you in washington one of one of the criticisms that the west always gets during the these amazing changes going on in north africa in the

arab world is that you know it was that it was the west it was supporting dictators because at the trade off was always you know the dictators will create security will be a good ally ok and the democracy was not high on the agenda then we go through this phase where there is hesitation in dealing with you know these democratic movements and then finally there's a there is considerable concern in the west about the fate of democracy but there's a there's a lot of wiggle room there saudi arabia there's qatar there is the palestinian issue eccentric cetera i mean to what degree is the western major powers still determining the geopolitical fate of this region and i can think of what's going on with egypt right now for example. well i think there are two questions and ben what you just said i think your description is accurate that for some people the democratization agenda is very important for there is it's not but there are of course competing goals in each case even those people who support or really consider democracy really important. as a means to basically what you said is what secretary clinton and president already

said that they in the past we didn't emphasize democratization enough still in other cases trade us or not come in geopolitical factors oil other sources. much respect to the question of how much influence the u.s. has a slightly different question and so it's a mystery action of see put the impact of policy and there you know what we're seen is it's a lot harder than it was earlier to for foreign powers to go with the term in advance of these countries because if i think people are trying to empower themselves you see the social revolutions so clear the me that the west sort of a military intervention can really determine the outcome and even then you we've seen this in our in iraq afghanistan and libya that is it once the west removes its forces or of the regime of course takes on a dynamic of its own as you would expect. so the people are struggling and trying to even when they want to influence you know what other alternatives are there of

soft power economic but it's difficult and in a way that's not very bad that means the people of the local people i mean brett are saying in terms of their own future as long as you do end up with the people rule rather than you know local to cagers or is the case is that often the case and the civil war over it has the strongest force it's interesting james i mean you could see that so you really and qatar for example are very good sarah good for the united states and its allies look it's going on with iran because again that's a huge double standard right there where the united states and fowler's will talk about democratization in some places but egypt. the word on bahrain i mean that's where the geopolitical element comes into it how much does it bother you about that the level of hypocrisy because people on the ground will say well you know the conditions can have it you know but palestinians can't have it of course ok and in bahrain they can't have it as well i mean how how does this skew the whole you can mock or see issues that the west talks about and one on one side of its mouth and then can use military force on the other side. or i think there are some in the

west that are pressing saudi arabia and bahrain for all the elections but i think the problem is that too often things get simplified to say that democracy equals actions and really elections are just one of the last phases of democracy there has to be a support of civil society that respects the rule of law and that there are protections for an already right so you don't end up with tyranny of the majority. but in general. you know a situation like bahrain is difficult although it's much easier to. rectify if you consider that some no the protesters in bahrain want the iranian style government which would lead to even less freedom for their people less

genuine democracy and you know everything gets confused the waters become muddy because everybody's speaking about democracy but they. are often mean very different things ok now in one line if i go to you i mean again it seems to be a huge double standard right there and i'm not really sure how many people in bahrain want to have an iranian style government i've heard that before but i haven't seen much evidence of it. is it is there is the west still tainted with by and by supporting very medieval regimes like saudi arabia and qatar is the last country that comes to my mind when democracy is mentioned. yes i do think that this is a case on the streets throughout the arab region you know the manner in which. the west has engaged in this tradeoff between the stability on the one hand and democracy on the other for decades opted for stability at the expense of democracy but over the last year i believe that there is

a rethink in some quarters in the west as that the time has come to really respect the views of the people in the region they have clearly demonstrated their desire for genuine independence for participation and respect for the rule of law. because the west cannot prepare for what will happen if their power has to give it to the emerging forces the newly elected governments are not up to ninety two to root a government to prove themselves but if they fail then they can be disregarded but to to predict and to say well they will establish democracy dictatorships i don't think is this is a very option now in the region and. the newly elected governments have to made it clear that they are less concerned about about ideology and more about double values and interests national interests and on this basis i think western

governments would be able to engage in a meaningful discourse on the basis of which i respect and the protection of our interests the rest because their take interest in the middle east the flow of oil the security of israel one such as guaranteed i don't think i would care much about the nature of the regime as we have seen in the us ethical it richard i think that we disagree good point which are not clear and i think it's interesting in the course of the last year i grab a year ago people say all these. these are going to take over and people are a little scared about that but we have seen going to nishan with libya that and and we have in iraq as well i mean you you have these parties going to coming to power coming have come to power coming to or or to the the process of coming to power and they don't seem very scary is they did at one point i mean is the west learned learning to understand that the islam can have its own democratic values and

institutions. well we've always had this debate about whether if the if they come if the psalmist parties the war in in the cold war with communist parties they come to power. c m l i mean out of their their beliefs you know the crime and if you challenge the governor having to provide social services having to have an effect on economy and the evidence is mixed i mean so far you're right the muslim brotherhood in egypt has pursued i mean it's actually generally seen as more moderate branch of the movement compared to some of the view that the second place party which is much more extremist. and but you know in libya there's still this nagging doubt over all how that dynamic is going to play itself out. in bahrain were. things. mentioned implying that what you've got because of the fact that as the struggle progresses the extremists tend to strengthen and so you're

seeing this in syria you're seeing this and bahrain that the opposition being frustrated trying to move more towards extremist solutions now the hope is when the conflict ends that we've gone back we know. and i mean the more the west and everybody else is sort of grappling with this issue about how do you if you do have a change of regime control you end up with a democratic government. or at least not oppressive one and this is the problem that we're facing in iraq. the dynamics are leading to basically we are fearing what we create another saddam hussein type government which despite our best efforts so i'm not sure the west has learned the lessons and i'm sure the lessons are yet i still think no one likes it when there's a military intervention in iraq in libya it usually ends very badly and you don't get anything near that you were hoping for what do you think about that james.

well i think. you know wars have unintended consequences and although the u.s. did defeat saddam hussein in iraq. and when it turned over control of iraq to the different political parties then as iraq we covered its sovereignty u.s. influence was very limited and i think this is extremely limited today perhaps overshadowed by iranian influence but that's you know the decision of the or iraq east and i would expect in libya to that. you know as they say in the middle east no good deed goes unpunished so. you know all the libyans have a good feeling about being delivered from gadhafi if this revolution becomes factionalized and there is a. struggle for power then i think those good feelings could disappear pretty quickly so there's no you know

a permanent store of credit i would say of the middle east although you know i think the u.s. is perceived to be a more benign power even by many islamic after libya ok doubt if i got it to you to learn if we are you heard it here to begin the program we just heard a lot of unintended consequences ok i positively if he says that military intervention is you really do make that term the law of unintended consequences very very meaningful in a geopolitical sense. it what i like to say in this regard is that in the case of libya libya was a bit of a people it didn't have a function instead it before the uprising i mean gaddafi had no judiciary he was the state he had his family there was no constitution more parliament as as we know it and this was the problem once he was all over thrown the libyan people found

themselves in a situation where they had to build a state from scratch from zero i found this is a problem interest to both of us we are seeing the both bands of us there from comments very beginning and sought to in iraq what happened to all guns on the state will august alone proves that i made the judiciary. everything was dismantled and this is why we had met him and confusion that followed you know after the defeat of saddam hussein in tunisia the institutions are still remained in place we had the parliament we had the judiciary and and electoral process was able to. jump in here we ran out of time fascinating discussion about the fate of the of the arab spring many thanks my guest today in washington and in london and thanks to our viewers for watching this year to see you next time and remember for starters it's going to. take you straight.

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