russia today has an extremely confrontational stance when it comes to us.

and you can. start. to. flow in welcome to cross talk i get a little wee casting the arab middle east and beyond what is the condition of the arab spring are humanitarian interventions effective what about the law of unintended consequences and is the west still determining the geo political fate of this past region. can.

cross-talk the future of the arab world and muslim lands i'm joined by richard white's in washington he is a senior fellow and director of the center for political military analysis at the hudson institute and an expert at wilkie stop also in washington we have james phillips he is the senior research fellow for middle eastern affairs at the douglas and sarah allison center for foreign policy studies at the heritage foundation and in london we go to doubt he is the current deputy secretary general of the muslim council of britain all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want richard i'd like to go to you first you know i did and i this is a very broad brush program looking at a lot of events over the last year about a year ago the west was very concerned with the possibility of islamic democracies and they were very worried about it all the way from tunisia to let's say iraq i mean those fears been allayed now. that's a really good question i mean you probably can see common trend since there's been

no i mean for white out several decades ago you often see these waves of social more playstation in a marker as asian so what started off in tunisia started spreading through other parts of the arab world and the common trends are people are more open about protesting express dissatisfaction using social networks but i think they key variables in their regime response when their genius respond very ineffective lee as in tunisia they lose power. when there is spying away then tag and eyes of the international community and they're not that strong as in the case of libya then you stuff international intervention in other cases. syria and iraq possibly it's still unclear because the the regime says it's part of the war effectively in the sense that they've managed to contain the spread of

violence but i think we have to look at this as a way to and i said about the french revolution it's too early to tell what the long term impact exactly james what do you think about it because it's seems to me is that as we go through this process here change if it's going to be done indigenously like we saw in tunisia. and then we see you know it's outside intervention and i think we all agree that libya is kind of in a mess here because we see regionalism we see the federal state very strong we're not getting stronger and then we have syria and the longer we go into this process the more regimes learn how to be their control ok and in this case of syria to use military forces and we see outside intervention too if it's legitimate or legal or illegal we see this internationalized of the same question do you see major trends or is it just one off each time. why i would agree

with what richard said the base when the motivation of many of these movements is a quest for freedom economic freedom political freedom in some cases religious freedom party each country of course is unique. the course of the revolution depends on the the response of the regime the strength of the regime the new greece to which it bends with the wind and makes compromises or in the case of khadafi or assad or brutally tries to put down their own people. in there it's unclear where the revolution may go in the future although i think there are many common denominators about the beginnings of these revolutions but revolutions are very hard to predict they can be hijacked as we saw in the french revolution

the russian revolution iranian revolution so it's very difficult to predict what's going to happen go on ahead ok you know if i go back to you in london i mean how much is this these changes in the in the arab world in north africa and beyond i mean has to do with geopolitics because gadhafi wasn't loved by the west i mean they really embraced him but they were they had the chance they'd drop him very quickly like a hot brick and then here is the side i mean this is again it's a very international i situation right here where the countries like russia and china saw the united nations security council through the united states and its allies abuse what a lot of people say resolution one nine hundred seventy three to topple the regime i mean and we've gotten through some kind of process here where. it's we see this is an opportunity for regime change when it at one point in time it's really actually about what's happening on the ground and what people want there and what's happening in syria is extremely unclear. well there is no doubt that there are

significant international geopolitical interests across the region but it varies from from one part to another if you recall in the case of tunisia initially the french foreign minister came she offered. this support out of the french military and she actually called for intervention to save. g.m. . ultimately that costed or her job. clearly differentiated geopolitical interests here but if we look at the case of syria i think the prospects for intervention whether we call it liberal or not it's much more constrained because syria is part of

a larger geopolitical bloc unlike an easier time as you know was very much on its own in north africa but there's syria and it's part of our block that constant towards baghdad. ask us. and beirut of course a guy did under the tutelage after her own unfocused reason. intervention in syria will not be targeted against the damascus regime per se but against this larger bloc and hence the reason they hesitate and see to intervene in syria militarily richard what do you think about that if you will it's a very good point that we just heard here i mean you know you we can all talk about a liberal interventions helping people responsibility rick to protect all these nice things ok to be a democracy but then when it gets down to something so geopolitically importance a country like syria all of it or a great deal of it goes to the wayside it's just pure pragmatic geopolitics. not

for everybody ok i think for example it would be hard to explain turkey's policy toward syria if. unless you understood the depth of feeling many turks to see their sunni muslims being killed i think that i mean there are certainly different instances now i mean the obvious difference between what we saw and libya and what we're seeing in syria is the west's intervened in libya and not in syria militarily and i think it's i mean i think that's explained by the fact that syria is does a much harder country to conduct a military operation against and it would be i mean you really would have to have a much more direct role of the western forces that they had in the past in libya supporting the indigenous forces so it's i mean and i'm sure you break it down by individual people though some people are very much motivated by factors in terms of how they're viewing what's happening in the middle east or others it's more instrumental economic and political that's hard to generalize because it's why

we're doing this program here james what do you think i mean if it were possible for a military intervention successful military intervention in syria would you support it. or will. we pose a direct u.s. military unit venture in syria why you are right because i know why is that you're always in syria ok it sounds like in this case why is that. in part because we think there is a war brewing in the future between the u.s. and iran and it would i think will be a mistake to get bogged down in syria in an open ended humanitarian intervention the us did not have a very good experience with humanitarian intervention in somalia where we went in to feed starving somalians and it up getting in fights with somalia militias who were the problem who were starving their own people and taking

the food so you know if this was an isolated case. you know there wasn't a possible war with iran on the horizon then i would look at it differently but i would not want to get into some kind of humanitarian intervention to me if you're going to intervene you should go after the cause of the problem and that's the regime and to me if the only worthwhile objective would be to get rid of that regime but then of course once that's done you know military force can destroy things but it's very hard to believe we learned that in libya didn't we i don't know if i go back to you in london what about and what kind of what form of intervention if any would you supporting deal in looking at syria today. well let me say first of all that i think it has to be premised on the under under popular

consensus but the people of syria should unfortunately at the present time gone seem to speak with unanimity in terms of of intervention there are those who called for direct intervention and those who called for this if corridor or all the no fly zone on like libya where then there was a much more strong and forceful forest concerns us both from the arab league and the and the libyan people but that as my colleague just mentioned in the case of libya we have seen as the sad consequences so this benghazi is almost forgotten and calling for a self autonomy understand of libya itself as we knew it over the last fifty years it is very much hanging in the balance it in the case of syria what will happen any military intervention will not be a quick drug it will take tearing it would be protracted because that will

support the regime in damascus and this i'm a protracted a military confrontation in syria would also lead to the possible fragmentation of the state and this is the danger when we can also see a possibility for partition there are a german we're going to go to a short break and after that tropical continue our discussion of the geopolitical fate of the middle east peace with arkie. going. to give you a story. if you. will you. will see british science. is going to. go back to our literary figures like the.

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back across the time people about imagine we're talking about the fate of the arab spring live can. live. here richard if i go back to you in washington when one of the criticisms that the west always gets during the these amazing changes going on in north africa in the arab world is that you know it was that it was the west it was supporting dictators because that the trade off was always you know they take haters will create security will be a good ally ok and the democracy was not high on the agenda then we go through this phase where there is hesitation in dealing with you know these democratic movements and then finally there's a there is a considerable concern in the west about the defeat of democracy but there's a lot of wiggle room there saudi arabia there's qatar there's the palestinian issue eccentric cetera i mean to what degree is the west a major power still determining the geopolitical fate of this region and i can think of what's going on with egypt right now for example. well i think there are

two questions and ben what you just said i think your description is accurate that for some people to democratization agenda is very important for others it's not but there are of course competing goals in each case so even those people who support or really consider democracy really important. as a means to basically what you said is what secretary clinton and president already said that they in the past we didn't emphasize democratization enough still in other cases trade outside and come in with your political factors oil other sources . with respect to the question of how much influence the u.s. has a slightly different question and so on so mr rection of the impact of policy and there are you know what we're seen is a lot harder than it was earlier for foreign powers to deal with the term in events in these countries because of the fact that the people are trying to empower

themselves you see the social revolutions so it's not clear than me that the west short of a military intervention can really determine the outcome and even then you we've seen this in iran and iraq afghanistan or libya that is it once the west removes its forces or the regime of course takes on a dynamic of its own as you would expect. so people are struggling and trying to even when they want to influence you know what other alternatives are there of soft power economic but it's a difficult and in a way that's not bad it means that people are local people i mean they are saying a term in their own future as long as you put the people rule rather than the local dictators over is the case is often the case in the civil war if it has the strongest force it's interesting james i mean you could see that saudi arabia and qatar for example are very good surrogates for the united states and its allies and when you look it's going on with iran because again that's a huge double standard right there where the united states in fowler's will talk

about democratization in some places but it's pretty much mum the. the word on bahrain i mean that's where the geo political element comes into it how much does it bother you about the level of hypocrisy because people on the ground will say well you know the tunisians can have it you know the palestinians can't have it of course ok and then bahrain is they can't have it is well i mean how how does this skew the whole you democracy issue that the west talks about a one on one side of its mouth but then can use military force on the other side. or i think there are some in the west that are pressing saudi arabia and bahrain to hold elections but i think the problem is that too often things get simplified to say that democracy equals actions and really elections are just one of the last phases of democracy there has to be a supporter of civil society that respects the rule of law and that there are protections for minority rights so you don't end up with kyrenia of the majority.

but in general. you know a situation like bahrain is different called although it's much easier to. rectify if you consider that some of the protesters in bahrain want the iranian style government which would lead to even less freedom for their people less genuine democracy and you know everything gets confused the waters become muddy because everybody's speaking about democracy but they. often mean very different things ok now in one line if i go to you i mean again it seems to be a huge double standard right there and i'm not really sure how many people in bahrain want to have an iranian style government i've heard that before but i haven't seen much evidence of it. is it is there is the west still tainted by by supporting very medieval regimes like saudi arabia and qatar is the last country

that comes to my mind when democracy is mentioned. yes i do think that this is a tip on the streets throughout the arab region you know the manner in which. the west has engaged in this trade off between stability on the one hand and democracy on the other for decades opted for stability at the expense of democracy but over the last year i believe that there is a rethink in some quarters in the west that the time has come to really respect the views of the people in the region and they have clearly demonstrated their desire for a genuine independence for participation and respect for the rule of law. because the west cannot pretend what will happen if therefore has to do it the emergent forces the newly elected governments an opportunity to to root

a government to prove themselves but if they fail then they can be disregarded not to to predict and to say well they will have step is democracy the test of ships i don't think is this is a very fair option now in the region and. the newly elected governments are to made it clear that they are less concerned about about ideology and more about people's values and interests national interests and not just this i think. western governments would be able to engage in a meaningful discourse on the basis of mutual respect and the protection of our pop interests the rest of their sick interest in the middle east the flow of oil the security of israel one that is guaranteed i don't think i would care much about the nature of the regime as we have seen in the past se or richard i think that we disagree that when we should actually i think it's interesting in the course of the

last year i grab a year ago people say all these. mick parties are going to take over and people are a little you know scared about that but we've seen with the nation with with libya that and and we have in iraq as well i mean you you have these parties that are coming to power coming have come to power coming or are into the process of coming to power and they don't seem very sick kerry is that is they did at one point i mean is the west learning learning to get a standard to islam can have its own democratic values and institutions. well we've always had this debate about whether or if the if they come if the islamist parties or and the cold war was the communist party so they come to power. only their or their beliefs you know the prime and the challenge of governing and having to fight social services having to have an effect are kind to me and the evidence is mixed i mean so far you're right the muslim brotherhood in egypt has pursued i mean it's

actually generally seen as a more minor of france and the movement compared to some of the party which is much more extremist. and but you know libya there's still this nagging doubt over all how that dynamic is going to play itself out. in the word. games with soaring mention and find that what you got because of the fact that as the struggle progresses the extremists tend to strengthen and so you're seeing this in syria you're seeing this and bahrain the opposition being frustrated trying to move more towards extremist solution and it's now the hope is when the conflict ends that we've gone back and we saw no. and i mean the more the west like everybody else is sort of grappling with this issue about how do you if you do have a change from regime to ensure you end up with a democratic government. or at least a not oppressive one and this is the problem now we're facing in iraq that the

dynamics are leading to basically we are fearing what we create another saddam hussein type government which despite our crafts efforts so i'm not sure the west is learn the lessons and i'm sure the lessons are yet i still think so when there's a military intervention in iraq in libya it usually ends very badly and you don't get anything near that you were hoping for what do you think about that james. well i think. you know wars have unintended consequences and although the u.s. did defeat saddam hussein in iraq. when it turned over control of iraq to the different political parties then as iraq we carved its sovereignty the u.s. influence was very limited and i think it is extremely limited today perhaps overshadowed by iranian influence but that's you know the decision of the right you rocky's and i would expect in libya to that. you know as they

say in the middle east no good deed goes unpunished so. you know all the libyans have a good feeling about being delivered from the if this revolution becomes factionalized and there is a. struggle for power then i think those good feelings could disappear pretty quickly so there's no you know permanent store of credit i would say in the middle east although you know i think the u.s. is perceived to be on more benign power even by many is alarmists after libya ok doubt if i don't get to you tonight it will be our you heard it we heard the beginning of the program we just heard the law of unintended consequences ok i targeted the if he says that military interventions really do meet that term the law of unintended consequence is very very meaningful in e.g.

a political sense. it what i like to say in this regard is that in the case of libya libya was a bit of a people it didn't have a function instead before the uprising in i mean gaddafi had no judiciary he was the states he and his family there was no a constitution more parliament as as we know it and this was the problem once he was overthrown the libyan people found themselves in a situation where they had to build a state from scratch from zero and this is a problem it is the both of us we are seeing the growth plans of us the from from its very beginning and sought to in iraq what happens to all guns august third world war this no good the army the judiciary. everything was dismantled and this is why we had met him and confusion that followed you know after the defeat of saddam hussein in tunisia the institutions of there remained in place we had the

parliament we have the judiciary and and electoral process was able to. jump in here we've run out of time fascinating discussion about the fate of the of the arab spring many thanks my guest today in washington and in london and thanks to our viewers for watching as you are to see you next time and remember i start. to take you straight. elite. if you. will. guitar sometimes see a story and it seems so for life you think you understand it and then he limps something else you hear sees some other part of it and realize everything you thought you knew you don't know i'm sorry welcome to the big picture.

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