evening. clothes are the headlines for you now a healthy north korea launches its controversial long range rocket but it hits the ocean instead of all of it so it fired up a u.n. security council consider taking measures against the country for flaunting a ban on bullshit rockets from the world body also sets its sights on syria the draft resolution on the table to enforce the still and send in observers u.n. brokered cease fire came into force on thursday an official said somewhat being

fully implemented with reports of fresh clashes. incensed over immigration and raged at the euro france's far right gains ground in the presidential race. of the brothers against of multiculturalism the country's cultural conservative national front party's its highest ever called it. syria is certainly on a knife edge right now but as crosstalk examines next other countries are stuck in a political quagmire over what to do next. please. you can. start.

to think this is. a low in welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle syria's eerie silence at least for now at this moment the u.n. sponsored peace plan for syria has gotten mixed reviews what happens next the u.s. nato and its regional allies are still calling for regime change. opposition in syria is anything but united is this just another lol before a more violent and deadly storm. came. across not the ceasefire in syria i'm joined by joshua landis a norman he is director of the center for middle east studies and associate professor of middle east studies at the university of oklahoma in columbia we have joseph omar he's an adjunct professor at the university of south carolina and in paris we have diana johnston she is an independent political commentator and author of fool's crusade yugoslavia nato and western delusions all right folks this is

crosstalk that means you can jump in anytime you want if i go to joseph first in colombia we have a cease fire right now there's like i said in the introduction there's mixed reviews of it where do we go from here i mean what do we hear is this cease fire accomplished if not just give both sides more time to arm and i'd like to point out to our viewers that there are western capitals talking about a buffer zone right now to give the opposition their rebels if you want a place to retreat and regroup isn't that just fueling on the next stage of this civil war. well first of all the civil war ceasefire is not complete according to my information at least nine people were killed already today but i don't really believe that this ceasefire will all go for too long you know i wrote in my latest article that it might remind the thought of the cease fire that took place in another country neighboring to say lebanon in the seventy's may not be the exact same situation but not too much different look i

believe that the situation is no real political solution for one very simple reason that there can't be any meeting point between origi it wants to be in total complete and absolute control and opposition whether you call it so-called opposition rather there is opposition rebels whatever you would call them they do not accept the very legitimacy of these three jeem and the main reason for that these because of the sectarian divide between sunni muslims and all of whites and other minorities so just a question of time when all these will explode maybe tomorrow in the day of prayer maybe afterwards but i don't believe that we are in any time close to the end of all this because it's no all right josh if i can go to you the west has chosen a side in this conflict is that a good idea and you know and i did put in remind our viewers that we have iraq we have afghanistan we have libya eccentric cetera i guess the west has decided to choose a side it's giving non-lethal aid right now that's

a slippery slope or is this a good idea well it's quite clear that the on mission and most western governments are working across purposes. the west has made no secret of their desire to see this regime overthrown and to have a different government in syria one that would be allied with saudi arabia united states make peace with israel for sake hizbullah hamas and iran. so that's you know that's what they're working for obviously russia and china have very different views they want to see this regime. five they want stability in the region and a long time ally in syria to persist in in the region but i don't see i agree with the your first commentators that this is unlikely to hold for a long war how you and the head of the syrian opposition has called for big bigger demonstrations this friday the opposition sees this as an opportunity to push for

a tough we're square moment if the military won't shoot on them they can demonstrate that they have the popular power the government of course wants u.n. observers in and is hoping that they can use this to blame the opposition for creating the violence in syria but but these two sides have fundamental disagreements and i think this is really to simmer more than two sides here for diana if i go to you in paris that joshua gave the wish list for the west and i'm looking at the title of your book a western delusions i mean is it delusional that the u.s. and its allies can get all the things that joshua just mentioned because it seems that that's it's like a fairy tale. well it's hard to know what they really want because what they have achieved in afghanistan and iraq and now in libya is pretty much chaos and yet they go on saying

that they want democracy and this and that and the other. and you know some people can can really wonder is if that's a delusion or whether chaos is what some people really want in order to weaken all of the countries in the area in preparation for an attack say on iran it is so so you know you do what they say they want and how they behave really in quite serious contradiction ok just a very there's still ample evidence that assad is popular with some groups core groups in syria and that's not going to change and considering our geishas of atrocities by the quote he called opposition or oppositions or rebels whatever you want to call them i mean we've there's a specter of ethnic cleansing on the horizon. well you have an ethnic problem there

in syria sectarian problems no question about it i don't know how you come to the conclusion that assad is popular he's obviously popular if you look at what is happening in syria you see something very simple i mean all this of course it's not simple it's very bad but the alawite area is very peaceful that through syria is very peaceful the christian suburbs of damascus but tomorrow rather serenely poor a very peaceful day in israeli area around home santa maria is very familiar jerry remain here and the military remains intact in the military remains and kyra let me let me tell you about i hear about i'll tell you about the military in a minute let me just finish the point please and the smiley enclave around the home saving the home sees the plotting under the pressure of the regime this my area including salami is very peaceful that is to say the minorities that were around the region from the night in the sixty's seventy's onwards are still fairly there can be understood there is a reason for hate at the military is divided basically what is being used now

always the brute force of the alibi community by and large most of the sunni so-called units are not being used that i can give you names of divisions and all that let's not poor our own many of us result is lethal because the fact of the matter is that here is you are right the tragic conclusion of all this is that if there will not be some kind of a transition of power from the current regime to some kind of another regime in a peaceful way we tried out very much yes we are going to see violence in syria that we do war for anything that we have seen until now this is very unfortunate very tragic it already acted in syria in the past week after and in lebanon it happened in iraq on occasions it may very well as been in syria and i would argue just by finishing this point already but i mean there is a thought the whole point in the current situation what makes this bloody religious . for a second i promise once that i probably prolonging the current situation we make

violins big good and kind of venice anyone can build in that and now will. read to you was the level of violence and i can probably take only well i don't know joshua if i can go to joshua way one or maybe only a whole month i think you could make the same argument but the other side they continued outside intervention will prolong this and make it even bloodier i mean seriously ok like i said in the beginning of the programming you're giving nonlethal aid to these people whoever these people are they don't seem to be jeffersonian democrats to me and you're just going to make the conflict more internationalized it's going over the border right now i mean this is going down the same path that we've done for the last ten years i mean is there a learning curve here well i think you're right international adventure intervention is not likely to stop it's not likely to stop the violence. the serious problem is that it does not have a strong sense of national community the opposition as it is fragmented minority

rules we're going to see that minority fall i believe in the next several years the minorities that ruled lebanon fell the minority that ruled iraq the sunnis fell and the minority in israel and palestine was able to make itself into a majority of the jews but in every one of those countries the opposition are still fighting the sunnis are still fighting to get back in iraq the palestinians are still fighting for their share of palestine and the different communities in lebanon are in a very hostile sort of come to the end if you will but this for foreigners to step in and think they can nation build in syria and to create a strong sense of national unity is i think foolish we've discovered that in in in afghanistan in iraq america did not have the answers a leader of syria is going to have to emerge out of this struggle if we look at all

the great nation building leaders of the middle east ataturk ben-gurion in israel. in saudi arabia they spent decades fighting to unify their countries they be emerged as heroes on the battlefield they did not have the country given to them by foreign powers ok and then when i come back a just my general let me jump in let me tell you right man that would be in the last word before we go to the break go ahead diana. well yes that is the you know democracy is something that has only existed in the west for a couple of hundred years we act as if it was the eternal the dirty of of the west which it hasn't been i mean we've had kings etc etc it's about two hundred years of democracy and now our democracy shows signs of decadence in certain cases and now we want to force democracy on the rest of the world when it that is the result of a proud process which results in

a sense of trust where everybody agrees to play by the rules because nobody's afraid of anybody else that is not the case of syria and that's not the case in a lot of the world and for us to go in saying we're going to bring democracy is total fantasy is as far as i'm concerned and it's certainly true that interference only makes things worse but i don't plan is doing what they should be doing what the international community which the u.s. tends to adopt for itself when in fact it's a minority in the world. is is doing what it should do with trying to mediate and to to find a more or less. peaceful solution i mean at least keep the violence down a bit and the united states is doing just the opposite of leading politicians are going to be germany and looking to do a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion of the cease fire in syria state.

there hasn't been a thing yet all t.v. . it is to get the maximum political impact of. the full source material is for hopes if journalism we. we want to present. something up if. a nation of free accreditation three pounds for charges free to make

amends free risk free spirit child free. download free broncho slow to mediocre for your media projects and free media and on to our teton tom. egypt. and. the police. welcome back across the uk i get a little to imagine we're talking about the un brokered truce in syria. and egypt. ok just a bit before we move on to the international aspects of what's going on the ceasefire in syria you said you wanted to during the break you want to talk about the intervention in one form or another we had joshua and diane really dismissing it

would you could you have a different position go right ahead. you know i would like to clarify what i meant i mean there are all kinds of forms of intervention what i'm speaking about that these stages and i'm sure the joshua and diane will die and i will agree with me i mean the carnage in syria should stop because you're talking about well beyond about ten thousand people i mean the real numbers are i of in what we hear and tens of thousands are in jail disappear who knows what can happen to them if they da's to stop the violence something has to be done in order to stop it because the current situation is such that it will continue endlessly and i believe that and i agree with joshua about the use of the gym is going to disappear it's a matter of free advance are able to use and then the bloodshed could be construed thinking cataclysmic in order to prevent that there should be some kind of a transitional situation only thought by the superpower for that matter russia should play a very significant role i would say that and something can be done about that and

should be done about it and rather quickly because if not the violence will continue it anyway and then when the regime will be down then we shall see a real eruption of violence that we have never seen before in the middle east ok joshua i mean you can kind if you damned if you do damned if you don't situation i mean what we've seen in the last few months is that you know a restart of western capitals would somebody bomb syria so i can sleep well at night it gets down to a moral issue too because we are watching violence going on in syria but can we do anything to make it better if if we have an outside intervention it could make it far far worse and i think that's what the real international community and of western capitals are thinking. yes i don't think they can make it better you know america believes that it can and it can somehow create nation states in this region and we haven't been able to do that here in the first month and a half after we intervened in iraq. over ten thousand iraqis were dead

then the death rate went up once the regime was destroyed civil war broke out and that could very well be that clip could be the case in syria that's why no foreign power wants to get involved in syria they talk but they're not doing why because once this regime falls there are fifty over fifty militias in syria will they all get along and agree on one form of government doubtful they may very well fight each other there needs to be an alternative government and an alternative force to step in once this regime falls that force is not there today if america or turkey or saudi arabia or nato went in and bombed this regime like it did in a in libya you're going to get a civil war and the death rate is going to go up not down that's what happened in iraq and that's what unfortunately is happening in other places now what is true of what is that they think now it simply won't go right but it's ten thousand when i hear what is happening and i thought oh. you know our leadership that's where you

are to yours america more it goes all the more approaches it would be ok diana john jump in go ahead but it has to emerge i on its own where we guess i am i just want to mention the fact that although we're talking about syria this situation does not only. concern syria and what is happening in syria there's also the the world there's also the fact that the united states by its very aggressive. posture of the i'm talking about the administration not american people who i don't think have the same views is in fact being extremely aggressive in denying diplomacy denying the state sovereignty the sovereignty of states and is running into conflict with

russia that is extremely dangerous not just for i mean you know there's others of us at stake there is there's a whole world is this. crisis escalates into world war it will kill a lot more people than even exist in syria i'm sorry but you know this this is an extremely dangerous situation just and kofi annan is trying to calm it down and i think that the united states is very irresponsible in not really supporting what coffee and is doing because they have not been supporting it they have been saying oh oh this is all work it will work it all work and then they accept prize that it doesn't work and they are doing everything to sabotage an international. compromise which has had some response from the syrian government they have promised reforms either you should be pushing them towards or reinforce and says they go they're not going to do it they're not going to do it or just if i go you.

and it's bringing up an interesting point is what i wanted to bring up in this part of the program is the international effect here i'm not convinced there are many people in western capitals that care about the nature of democracy in syria or reform in syria i'm sorry i'm just not convinced of it given the past but it's about iran isn't it and it's and if they see that syria if you can get take syria down one way or another it exposes the weaknesses of iran that's a very cynical foreign policy but there's in between the lines that's what it seems like to me go ahead. well first of all it's true that if the syrian regime or other when it falls it will weaken iran it will weaken. lebanon it is already having been affected by the way on the behavior of hamas which dropped out of the mask was out of their own will and can't you've got to be everything to gaza it is to some extent but look here is the problem with all that logic this civil war in syria didn't start by any kind of western instigation it started by the syrian

people that is to say it is not something that started by foreign instigation not the americans not attacks not the israelis for god's sake it's started by the syrian people so this is a given situation now and what i said before and i will repeat it now it's not about democracy it's not about nation building you never add these words from me i agree completely with joshua landis that there can be nation building from the outside in syria what i am saying is that if we are concerned as human beings with the level of violence in syria today what we need to do is to stop eat and the only way to stop it right now would be to make sure that the syrian regime understand that it cannot slaughter its own people and it can be done in a way which is not bumping syria from the outside there are all kinds of other scenarios and i would also say one word to play on there is not going to be a world war over syria with all due respect all these scare tactics and you know feel mongering it's a little sign of i don't know spare you find

a way to joshua to say this is what it is you really are but nonetheless a way for you in which both the u.s. and russia should ok josh when i can i go back to something you said earlier is that you know you know all the different possibilities the outcomes here and none of the outcomes that we ever predicted in iraq afghanistan and libya except for have ever come to fruition i mean why are western capitals and politicians you know mccain and lieberman you know so gung ho on a place that we have very little knowledge we expert knowledge and which way you could go because we even have opposition groups committing atrocities we have religious fundamentalists there as well i mean are these the right people we want to be supporting. well unfortunately there's a lot of domestic american politics coming into it and that's why they're taking the position that they are but but the. unfortunately syria has become internationalized it did start i agree with joseph it started as

a domestic squabble and now it's become internationalized because china and russia both are looking at syria as a bridge had to iran and if the west is able to change the governments in syria taking down this key shiite power in the shiite crescent that ties hizbollah through iraq to iran then iran is likely to be next and already the west has put increasingly severe sanctions on iran china gets twenty percent of its. of its energy from iran and if the price of energy goes goes up and it loses its investments in iran it'll be a big blow for china russia as well as look to iran as a partner if russia loses syria loses a seaport it loses a front row seat on the arab israeli conflict which was key in two thousand and eight in fighting in georgia because russia could threaten to give arms to syria and and israel which was supplying georgia with arms immediately got frightened and

said ok we won't supply any more arms to georgia so russia was able to use its position in syria in order to gain a big advantage internationally to i was not i don't actually agree with what a lot with you had to say about i did die and i if you will say one thing i want to bring i want to bring up time or is there please i want to bring up i'd like before we go on is that there's international law its stake here and you know we have western capitals that say they support international law and they have flaunted it for over a decade now when it comes to this part of the world this is another issue the international real international community the majority of people are looking at because this is what joshua had to say who's going to be next you know what scenario to take down another regime outside of international and i think we all need to remember that diana go ahead. well yes i am of course i agree with that but i want to come back because this business about iran i mean. the first

owner it says says that we won't have world war over syria no but we might have it over iran and you see exactly what the word professor landis correctly said is that this is leading toward iran and let's face it the fact is that israel and its of very powerful friends in the united states are very pushing pushing pushing with some resistance i hope in the united states toward war with iran to protect israel and here's something i really want to say because. the fact is the whole sarette of what's been hugely exaggerated and the real reason that israel is so upset about iran was said by ephram stay in two thousand and six and has been recreated by others is the danger isn't that iran would attack israel but the fact is if if if it is iran has nuclear weapons it might frighten israelis into leaving israel and israel would lose population and it would destroy designers green personally i.

would have to say on the story it was sitting in perry's the address of diallo we know you respect it's not for your second or a very clear field this one it's not for you all sitting in cary's telling these the earliest was to be afraid of a lot when the president of your i'll say they want to look for the israelis to be telling me what to do or to get at so a pledge to turn out. not all k. ok you never got any new stuff on your head to go to bed i wish you would never have it but look i want to i don't think you will hear him well has all the lines of missiles at israel isn't that a little earlier in the region we know who you are. oh ok they are on ok let's. go frankly now the discussion let's get back to the serious situation are really. was the same discussion as always when we do this topic many thanks to my guest today in norman colombia and in paris and thanks to our viewers for watching us here already seeing next time and remember prost awful.