today violence has once again flared up. and these are the images the world has been seeing from the streets of canada. trying to look for asians through the day. well thanks for joining our team at half past the hour with me parents are rushing to your headlines north korea launches its controversial long range rocket that plunges into the scene moments later but still provokes tough talk at the united nations russia says the rolla needs resolving through diplomacy. the u.n. security council sets its sights on syria with a draft resolution on the table to enforce the project peace deal and send the servers a u.n. brokered cease fire payments of course on thursday but officials say it's not being

fully implemented amid reports of fresh clashes. incensed over immigration and enraged at the euro princes far right gains ground in the presidential race have made their public rallies against multiculturalism the country's culture of conservative national front party is seeing its highest ever poll ratings. syria is certainly on a knife try it now let us cross talk examines next other countries are stuck in a political quagmire over what to do. please. you can. start. to

think this is. a low in welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle serious eerie silence at least for now at this moment the u.n. sponsored peace plan for syria has gotten mixed reviews what happens next the u.s. nato and its regional allies are still polling for regime change while the so-called opposition in syria is anything but united is this just another lobby for a more violent and deadly storms to. kick. start. to cross out the cease fire in syria i'm joined by joshua landis in norman he is director of the center for middle east studies and associate professor of middle east studies at the university of oklahoma in columbia we have joseph omar he's an adjunct professor at the university of south carolina and in paris we have diana johnston she is an independent political

commentator and author of fool's crusade yugoslavia nato and western delusions all right folks this is across time that means you can jump in anytime you want if i go to joseph first in colombia we have a cease fire right now there's like i said in the introduction there's mixed reviews of it where do we go from here i mean what are we here is the cease fire accomplished if not just give both sides more time to arm and i'd like to point out to our viewers that there are western capitals talking about a buffer zone right now to give the opposition their rebels if you want a place to retreat and regroup isn't that just fueling on the next stage of the civil war. well first of all the civil war ceasefire is not complete according to my information at least nine people were killed already today but i don't really believe that the ceasefire will all go for too long you know i wrote in my latest article that it might remind us all of the cease fire that took place in another country neighboring to say lebanon in the

seventy's payload bay the exact same situation but not too much different by their look i believe that the situation is no real political solution for one very simple reason that there can't be any meeting point between energy and it wants to be in total complete and absolute control and opposition whether you call it so-called opposition or not but there is opposition rebels whatever you would call them they do not accept the very legitimacy of peace agreement and the main reason for that is because of the sectarian divide between sunni muslims and alawite and other minorities so it's just a question of time when all this will explode maybe tomorrow in the day of prayer this may be afterwards but i don't believe that we are in any time close to the end of all this crisis no. josh if i can go to you the west has chosen a side in this conflict is that a good idea and you know and i think put in remind our viewers that we have the right we have afghanistan we have libya eccentrics cetera again the west has

decided to choose the side it's giving non-lethal aid right now that's a slippery slope is this a good idea well it's quite clear that the on mission and most western governments are are working across purposes. the west has made no secret of their desire to see this regime overthrown and to have a different government in syria one that would be a large would saudi arabia united states make peace with israel for say hizbullah hamas and iran. so that's you know that's what they're working for obviously russia and china have very different views they want to see this regime. five they want stability in the region that and a long time ally in syria to persist in in the region but i don't see i agree with your first commentator that this is unlikely to hold for long war how do you and the head of the syrian opposition has called for big bigger

demonstrations this friday the opposition sees this as an opportunity to push for a talk we are square moment if the military won't shoot on them and they can demonstrate that they have the popular power the government of course wants u.n. observers in and is hoping that they can use this to blame the opposition for creating the violence in syria but but these two sides have fundamental disagreements that i think is really to simmer more than one side here for diana if i go to you in paris that joshua gave the wish list for the west and i'm looking at the title of your book a western delusions i mean is it delusional that the u.s. and its allies can get all the things the joshua just mentioned because it seems like that's it's like a fairy tale. well it's hard to know what they really want because what they have achieved in afghanistan and iraq and now in libya is pretty much chaos and yet they go on saying

they want democracy and this and that and the other. and you know some people can really wonder if that's a delusion or whether chaos is what some people really want in order to weaken all of the countries in the area in preparation for an attack say on iran it is so so you know you do what they say they want and how they behave really in quite serious contradiction ok just a very ample evidence that assad is popular with some groups who are groups in syria and that's not going to change in considering our geishas of atrocities by the quote unquote opposition or oppositions or rebels whatever you want to call them i mean we've there's the specter of ethnic cleansing on the horizon. well you

have an epic problem there in syria a sectarian problem there is no question about it i don't know how you come to the conclusion that assad is popular with the popular if you look at what is happening in syria you see something very simple i mean all this of course it's not simple experimental but the alawite area is very peaceful that through syria is very peaceful the christian suburbs of damascus but tomorrow rather saline alipore very peaceful the israeli area around holmes anomia is very full military remains very and the military remains intact in the military remains and kyra let me let me tell you about i'm here but i'll tell you about the military in a minute let me just finish the point please and the smiley enclave around palms even though holmes is a bloodying under the pressure of delivering this my area into every salary is very peaceful that is to say the minorities that were around the region from the night in sixty's seventy's onward to still barely there can be understood there is a reason for that and the military is divided basically what is being used now

always the brute force of the alawite community by loves most of the sunni so-called units are not being used that i can give you names of divisions and all that it's not poor our a many of us result history to the test the fact of the matter is that yes you are right the tragic conclusion of all this is that if there will not be some kind of a transition of power from the current regime to some kind of another regime in a peaceful way we tried out very much yes we are going to see violence in syria that we do worth anything that we have seen until now this is very unfortunate very tragic it already acted in syria in the past it happened in lebanon only to have it in iraq on occasions it may very well as been in syria and i would argue to trust by finishing this point already i mean there is a thought the whole knowing the current situation will make this bloody religious.

if you are thinking i promise what think i probably prolonging the current situation we make violence big kid into vanishing one kind building that did not know. the year was the level of violence and i can probably play tony well i don't know if joshua if i can go to josh the way one or maybe only i think you can make the same argument but the other side did the continued outside intervention will prolong this and make it even bloodier i mean seriously ok i said in the beginning of the programming you're getting non-lethal aid to these people whoever these people are they don't seem to be jeffersonian democrats to me and you're just going to make the conflict more internationalized it's going over the border right now i mean this is going down the same path that we've been for the last ten years i mean is there a learning curve here but i think you're right international adventure intervention is not likely to stop it's not likely to stop the violence. the serious problem is that it does not have

a strong sense of national community the opposition because it is fragmented a minority rules we're going to see that minority fall i believe in the next several years the minority is that rule of lebannon fell the minority that ruled iraq the sunnis fell and the minority in israel and in palestine was able to make itself into a majority of the jews but in every one of those countries the opposition are still fighting the sunnis are still fighting to get back in iraq and palestinians are still fighting for their share of palestine and the different communities in lebanon are in a very. hostile sort of covey end if you will but this for foreigners to step in and think that they can nation build in syria and to create a strong sense of national unity is i think foolish we've discovered that in in in afghanistan in iraq america did not have the answers

a leader of syria is going to have to emerge out of this struggle if we look at all the great nation building leaders of the middle east ataturk ben-gurion and israel does these episodes in saudi arabia they spend decades fighting to unify their countries they be emerged as heroes on the battlefield they did not have the country given to them by foreign powers ok and then when complicate this point john let me jump in let me tell you a man that may be in the last word before we go to the break go ahead diana. well yes that is the you know democracy is something that has only existed in the west for a couple of hundred years we act as if it was the eternal of death penalty of of the west which it hasn't been i mean we've had kings it's that or is that it's about two hundred years of democracy and now our democracy shows signs of decadence in certain cases and now we want to force democracy on the rest of the world when it

that is a result of a process process which results in a sense of trust where everybody agrees to play by the rules because nobody's afraid of anybody else that is not the case in syria and that's not the case in a lot of the world and for us to go in saying we're going to bring democracy is total fantasy is as far as i'm concerned and it's certainly true that interference only makes things worse than one plan is doing what they should be doing what the international community which the us tends to adopt for itself when in fact it's a minority in the world. is is doing what it should do with and on trying to mediate and to to find a more or less. peaceful solution i mean that at least keep the violence down a bit and the united states is doing just the opposite leading politicians are going to be gentle and look at it we're short break and out of that short break we'll continue our discussion of the cease fire in syria state.

for. the chance to be soon which brightened. the balance from fans to trash in the. newsroom starts on t.v. dot com. more news today violence is once again flared up the families are the images the

world has been seeing from the streets of canada. trying to look for a shelter of the day cluck cluck. cluck and if you still. come up to the good luck. welcome back across the uk i'm get a local to remind you we're talking about the un brokered truce in syria slum. and you can see the slum. ok just a bit before we move on to the international aspects of what's going on the cease fire in syria you said you wanted to during the break you want to talk about the intervention in one form or another we had joshua and diane really dismissing it would you could you have a different position go right ahead. you know i would like to clarify what i meant

i mean there are all kinds of forms of intervention what i'm speaking about at this stage is and i'm sure the joshua and beyond will they and i will agree with me i mean the carnage in syria should stop because you're talking about well beyond about ten thousand people i mean the real numbers are i of what we hear and tens of thousands in jail disappeared when i was working for them if they try to stop the violence something has to be done in order to stop it because the current situation is such that it will continue endlessly and i believe that and i agree with joshua about that is the regime is going to disappear it's a matter of finance or able to use and then the bloodshed could be catastrophic and cataclysmic in order to prevent that there should be some kind of a transitional situation only thought by the superpower for that matter russia should play a very significant role i would say that and something can be done about that and

should be done about it and rather quickly because if not the violence will continue it anyway and then when the regime will be down then we should see a real eruption of violence that we have never seen before in the middle east ok joshua i mean i can i could kind of you damned if you do damned if you don't situation i mean what we've seen in the last few months is that you know if we start a western capitals with somebody bomb syria so i can sleep well at night it gets down to a moral issue too because we are watching violence going on in syria because we do anything to make it better if we have an outside intervention it could make it far far worse and i think that's what the real international community of western capitals are thinking. yes i don't think they can make it better you know america believes that it can it can somehow create nation states in this region and we haven't been able to do that even in the first month and a half after we intervened in iraq. over ten thousand iraqis were dead

then the death rate went up once the regime was destroyed civil war broke out and that could very well be the clip would be the case in syria that's why no foreign power wants to get involved in syria they talk but they're not doing why because once this regime falls there are fifty over fifty militias in syria will they all get along and agree on one form of government doubtful they may very well fight each other there needs to be an alternative government and an alternative force to step in once this regime falls that force is not there today if america or turkey or saudi arabia or nato went in and bombed this regime like it did in a in libya you are going to get a civil war and the death rate is going to go up not down that's what happened in iraq and that's what unfortunately is happening in other places now to show up what is that i think now we think we won't go right but it's ten thousand when i hear what is happening that i. you know our leadership that's where you're getting our

words there's america more it goes all the more approaches it would be ok diana john jenkin go ahead but it has to emerge on its own where look yes i am i just want to to mention the fact that although we're talking about syria this situation does not only. concern syria and what is happening in syria there's also the the world there's also the fact that the united states by its very aggressive. posture the i have talking about the administration not american people who i don't think have the same view this is in fact being extremely aggressive in denying diplomacy denying the state sovereignty the sovereignty of states and is running into conflict with russia that is extremely dangerous not just for i mean you know there's others

of us at stake there is there's a whole world is this crisis escalates into a world war it will kill a lot more people than even exist in syria i'm sorry but you know this is this is an extremely dangerous situation just and kofi annan is trying to calm it down and i think that the united states is very irresponsible in not really supporting like coffee and iran is doing because they have not been supporting and they have been saying all of this it won't work it will work at all work and then they are acts apprised that it doesn't work and they are doing everything to sabotage an international. compromise which has had some response from the syrian government they have promised reforms e.u. they're usually pushing them toward the reforms and says they go they're not going to do it they're not going to do it just to find their you. i mean a damage bring up an interesting point is what i wanted to bring up in this part of

the program is the international effect here i'm not convinced there are many people in western capitals that care about the nature of democracy in syria or reform in syria i'm sorry i'm just not convinced of it given the past but it's about iran isn't it and it's and if they see that syria if you can get take syria down one way or another it exposes the weaknesses of iran that's a very cynical foreign policy but there's in between the lines that's what it seems like to me go ahead. well first of all it's tool that if the syrian regime or other when it falls it will weaken iran it will weaken hizbullah lebanon it is already i think in effect by the way on the behavior of hamas which dropped out of the mask with out of their own will and cancer therapy ever in gaza it is to some extent but look here is the problem with all that logic this civil war in syria even started by any kind of western instigation it started by the syrian people that is to say it is not something that started by foreign instigation not done

mary comes not attacks not the israelis for god's sake it's started by the syrian people so this is a given situation now and what i said before and i will repeat it now it's not about democracy it's not about nation building you never add these words from me i agree completely with joshua landis that there can be nation building from the outside in syria what i am saying is that if we are concerned as human beings with the level of violence in syria today what we need to do is to stop it and the only way to stop it right now would be to make sure that the syrian regime understand that it cannot slaughter its own people and it can be done in a way which is not bumping syria from the outside there are all kinds of other scenarios and i would also say one word to play on there is not going to be a world war over syria with all due respect all these scare tactics and you know feel mongering it's a little sign of i don't know spare your time going to joshua to see this is what

it is either but nonetheless a way for in which was the u.s. and russia ok josh when i can i go back to something you said earlier is that you know you know all of the different possibilities the outcomes here and none of the outcomes that we ever predicted in iraq afghanistan and libya etc have ever come to fruition i mean why are our western capitals and politicians you know mccain and lieberman you know so gung ho on a place that we have very little knowledge we expert knowledge and which way you can go because we even have opposition groups committing atrocities we have religious fundamentalists there as well i mean are these the right people we want to be supporting. well unfortunately there's a lot of domestic american politics coming into it and that's why they're taking the position that they are but but the. unfortunately syria has become internationalized it did start i agree with joseph it started as a domestic squabble and now it's become internationalized because china and russia

both are looking at syria as a bridgehead to iran and if the west is able to change the governments in syria taking down this key shiite power in the shiite crescent that ties hizbollah through iraq to iran then iran is likely to be next and already the west has put increasingly severe sanctions on iran china gets twenty percent of its. of its energy from iran and if the price of energy goes goes up and it loses its investments in iran it'll be a big blow for china russia as well as look to iran as a partner if russia loses syria loses a seaport it loses a front row seat on the arab israeli conflict which was key in two thousand and eight in fighting in georgia because russia could threaten to give arms to syria and and israel which was supplying georgia with arms immediately got frightened and

said ok we won't supply any more arms to georgia so russia was able to use its position in syria in order to gain a big advantage internationally to i was not i don't actually agree with a lot with your exam but i thought i'd die and i wanted to say one thing i want to bring i want to bring up one more if i had there please i want to bring up i mean before we go on is that there's international law its stake here and you know we have western capitals that say they support international law and they have flaunted it for over a decade now when it comes to this part of the world this is another issue the international real international community the majority of people are looking at because this is what joshua had to say who's going to be next you know what scenario to take down another regime outside of international and i think we all need to remember that diana go ahead. well yes i am of course i agree with that but i want to come back because this business about iran i mean. first says that we won't have world war over syria no but we might have it over iran and

you see exactly what what professor landis correctly said is that this is leading toward iran and let's face it the fact is that israel and its very powerful friends in the united states are very pushing pushing pushing with some resistance i hope in the united states toward war with iran to protect israel and here's something i really want to say because. the defense fact is that that whole threat of iran has been hugely exaggerated and the real reason that israel is so upset about iran was said by efrem stay in two thousand and six and has been recreated by others it's a danger isn't that iran would attack israel but the fact is if it is iran has nuclear weapons it might frighten israelis into leaving israel and israel would lose population and it would destroy the zionist dream personally i'd like to

believe i would have to say honestly it was fifty parries. great joseph diana we saw you respect it's not for your second our very brief feel this while it's not for your sitting in paris telling the israelis what will be afraid of a lot when the president of your i'll say they want to look for the israelis to be telling they want to do all together so a predator. not all day ok you never got any new stuff on your head because for a bit i wish you would never have a little i want i don't think you wanted to live here honey cause as well as all the kinds of missiles israel isn't that a little really rejecting you know who you are. oh ok diana ok let's say that i'm the real frankly not the discussion let's get back to the soup we have secure way should all really hard. time the same discussion as always we do this topic many thanks to my guest today in norman colombia and in paris and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are to be a next time and remember profitable. keep

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