you should be sitting on the mark with serious injuries at least for now at this moment the u.n. sponsored peace plan for syria has gotten mixed reviews but. welcome if you watch you around the world this is r.t. live from moscow these are all top stories of me kevin allen tonight moscow says piling new sanctions on north korea is not the way forward as the united nations denounces pyongyang's controversial rocket launch launch ended in failure as the rocket plummeted into the sea just moments after took off. the u.n. said to send more observers into syria as a draft resolution is laid out before the security council and void kofi annan says forces in

a country of not yet fully complied with the terms of the peace deal as reports of merger clashes near the border. the world's most famous whistleblower brings his new highly anticipated show to us t.v. from next tuesday during your sons will be talking to newsmakers and opinion formers some of whom have never appeared on english language television before going to be a must watch series for you. well the big story we're covering syria on a knife edge right now and cross talk examines next other countries are stuck in a real state of decision about what best to do over it people on the team here in just a few moments to talk about. taken

. to. a low in welcome to cross talk on peter lavelle syria's eerie silence at least for now at this moment the u.n. sponsored peace plan for syria has gotten mixed reviews what happens next the u.s. nato and its regional allies are still calling for regime change while the so-called opposition in syria is anything but united is this just another lull before a more violent and deadly storms. can. cross talk a cease fire in syria i'm joined by joshua landis a norman he is director of the center for middle east studies and associate professor of middle east studies at the university of oklahoma in columbia we have joseph omer he's an adjunct professor at the university of south carolina and in paris we have diana johnston she is an independent political commentator and author

of fool's crusade yugoslavia nato and western delusions all right folks this is cross and that means you can jump in anytime you want if i go to joseph first in colombia we have a cease fire right now there's like i said in the introduction there's a mixed reviews of it where do we go from here i mean what do we hear is the ceasefire accomplished if not just give both sides more time to arm and i'd like to point out to our viewers there are western capitals talking about a buffer zone right now to give the opposition their rebels if you want a place to retreat and regroup isn't that just fueling on the next stage of this civil war. well first of all the civil war ceasefire is not complete according to my information at least nine people were killed already today but i don't really believe that the ceasefire will all go for too long you know i wrote in my latest article that it might remind us all of the cease fire that took place in another country enabling to feel

a lebanon in this seven piece may not be the exact same situation but not too much different either look i believe the situation is no real political solution for one very simple reason that there can't be any meeting point between a region that wants to be in total complete and absolute control and opposition whether you call it so-called opposition or not but there is opposition rebels whatever you would call them they do not accept the very legitimacy of this for a dream and demand reason for that is because of the sectarian divide between sunni muslims and alawite and other minorities so it's just a question of time when all these will explode maybe tomorrow in the day of prayer maybe afterwards but i don't believe that we are in any time close to the end of all these classes no. joshua if i can go to you the west has chosen a side in this conflict is that a good idea and you know why to put in remind our viewers that we have iraq we have afghanistan we have libya eccentrics cetera again the west is decided to choose

a side it's giving non-lethal aid right now that's a slippery slope is this a good idea well it's quite clear that the on mission and most western governments are working across purposes. the west has made no secret of their desire to see this regime overthrown and to have a different government in syria one that would be allied with saudi arabia united states make peace with israel for sake hizbullah hamas and iran. so that's you know that's what they're working for obviously russia and china have very different views they want to see this regime. five they want stability in the region and a long time ally in syria to persist in in the region but i don't see i agree with the your first commentators that this is unlikely to hold for long one of how you and the head of the syrian opposition has called for big bigger

demonstrations this friday the opposition sees this as an opportunity to push for a rear square moment if the military won't shoot on them and they can demonstrate that they have a popular power the government of course wants un observers in and is hoping that they can use this to blame the opposition for creating the violence in syria but but these two sides have fundamental disagreements that i think is really to simmer more than one side here or a giant if i go to you in paris that joshua gave the wish list for the west and i'm looking at the title of your book a western delusions i mean is it delusional that the u.s. and its allies can get all the things that joshua just mentioned because it seems that that's it's like a fairy tale. well it's hard to know what they really want because what they have achieved in afghanistan and iraq and now in

libya is pretty much chaos and yet they go on saying that they want democracy and this and that and the other. and you know some people can can really wonder if that's a delusion or whether chaos is what some people really want in order to we can all of the countries in the area in preparation for an attack say on iran it is so so you know you do what they say they want and how they behave really in quite serious contradiction ok just a very there's still ample evidence that assad is popular with some groups core groups in syria and that's not going to change and considering our geishas of atrocities by the quote unquote opposition or oppositions or rebels whatever you want to call them i mean we've there's the specter of ethnic cleansing on the

horizon. well you have an air think problem there in syria sectarian problems no question about it i don't know how you come to the conclusion that assad is popular because obviously popular if you look at what is happening in syria you see something very simple i mean all these of course it's not simple it's terrible but the alawite area is very peaceful the truth area is very peaceful the christian suburbs of damascus but to model for the knowledge poor a very peaceful day in israeli area around home sandomir is very fulfilling cherryh interim delusionary remains intact in the military remains and try let me let me tell you about i hear about i'll tell you about the military in a minute let me just finish the point please and the smiley enclave around the homes even the home sees a bloody and under the pressure of the regime this my area actually even salary is very peaceful there is to say there are minorities that went around the region from the night in sixty seven piece on were still patted it can be understood there is

a reason for paid at the military is divided basically what is being used now always the brute force of the alawite community by and large most of the sunni so-called units are not being used that i can give you names of divisions in all that let's not bore our a many of yours is obviously to the tears the fact of the matter is that here as you are right the tragic conclusion of all this is that if there will not be some kind of a transition of power from the current regime to some kind of another regime in a peaceful way we cried out very much yes we are going to see violence in syria that will be worth anything that we have seen until now this is very unfortunate very tragic it already added in syria in the past after nine eleven only had it in iraq on occasions he paid very well airplane in syria and i would argue by finishing this point right there i mean there is a thought the whole point in the current situation will make this bloody lead

because. you are thinking i promised what think i probably prolonging the current situation we make violence begin in could a vanishing one kind of in that a now could read to you was the level of violence and i can prove the case only well i don't know joshua if i can go to joshua one or maybe oh man i think you could make the same argument but the other side did the continued outside intervention will prolong this and make it even bloodier i mean seriously ok i said in the beginning of the programming you're giving nonlethal aid to these people whoever these people are they don't seem to be jeffersonian democrats to me and you're just going to make this conflict more internationalize it's going over the border right now i mean this is going down the same path that we've done for the last ten years i mean is there a learning curve here but i think you're right international adventure intervention is not likely to stop it's not likely to stop the violence.

the serious problem is that it does not have a strong sense of national community the opposition as is fragmented a minority rules we are going to see that minority fall i believe in the next several years the minority is that ruled lebanon fell a minority that ruled iraq the sunnis fell and the minority in israel and palestine was able to make itself into a majority of the jews but in every one of those countries the opposition are still fighting the sunnis are still fighting to get back in iraq the palestinians are still fighting for their share of palestine and the different communities in lebanon are in a very. hostile sort of come to the end if you will but this for foreigners to step in and think that they can nation build in syria and create a strong sense of national unity is i think foolish we've discovered that in in in afghanistan in iraq america did not have the answers

a leader of syria is going to have to emerge out of this struggle if we look at all the great nation building leaders of the middle east ataturk then gurren israel abdulaziz and so did in saudi arabia they spent decades fighting to unify their countries they be emerged as heroes on the battlefield they did not have the country given to them by foreign powers ok on this point um ok just want you to let me jump in let me tell you right man that we're going to one of the last word before we go to the break go ahead diana. well yes if the you know democracy is something that has only existed in the west for a couple hundred years we act as if it was the eternal today at the energy of of the west which it hasn't been i mean we've had kings etc etc it's about two hundred years of democracy and now our democracy shows signs of decadence in certain cases and now we want to force democracy on the rest of the world when it that is

a result of a process process which results in a sense of trust where everybody agrees to play by the rules because nobody's afraid of anybody else that is not the case in syria and that's not the case in a lot of the world and for us to go in saying we're going to bring democracy is total fantasy is as far as i'm concerned and it's certainly true that interference only makes things worse but i don't plan is doing what they should be doing what the international community which the us tends to adopt for itself when in fact it's a minority in the world. is is doing what it should do with annan trying to mediate and to to find a more or less. peaceful solution i mean at least keep the violence down a bit and the united states is doing just the opposite leading politicians are going to be germany and look at it we're short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion of the cease fire in syria state.

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market why not. find out what's really happening to the global economy with mike's cause or there are no holds barred look at the global financial headlines tune in to cause a report on our key. players and it can be a. welcome back across a crowd here a little to remind you we're talking about the u.n. brokered truce in syria. lebanon to keep the sunnis. ok jess of it before we move on to the international aspects of what's going on the cease fire in syria you said you wanted to during the break you want to talk about the intervention in one form or another we had joshua and diane really dismissing it would you could you have

a different position go right ahead. you know i would like to clarify what i meant i mean there are all kinds of forms of intervention what i'm speaking about the distain cheese and i'm short of joshua and beyond will say and i will agree with me i mean the carnage in syria should stop because you're talking about well beyond that about think thousand people i mean the real numbers are higher than what we hear and tens of thousands are in jail disappear who knows what can accompany them if they da's to stop the violence something is to be done in order to stop it because the current situation is such that it will continue endlessly and i believe that and i agree with joshua about that is the genie is going to disappear it's a matter of three months or a year or two years and then the bloodshed could be catastrophic and cataclysmic in order to prevent that there should be some kind of a transitional situation only thought by the superpowers for that matter russia

should play a very significant role i would say that and something can be done about it and should be done about it and rather quickly because if not the violence will continue it anyway and then when the regime will be down then we should see a real eruption of violence that we have never seen before in the middle east ok joshua i mean i can kind of you damned if you do damned if you don't situation i mean what we've seen over the last few months is that you know a restart of western capitals would somebody bomb syria so i can sleep well at night it gets down to a moral issue too because we are watching violence going on in syria because we do anything to make it better if we have an outside intervention it could make it far far worse and i think that's what the real international community of western capitals are thinking. yes i don't think they can make it better you know america believes that it can it can somehow create nation states in this region and we haven't been able to do that in the first month and a half after we intervened in iraq. over ten thousand iraqis were dead

then the death rate went up once the regime was destroyed civil war broke out that could very well be the be the case in syria that's why no foreign power wants to get involved in syria they talk but they're not doing why because once this regime falls there are fifty over fifty militias in syria will they all get along and agree on one form of government doubtful they may very well fight each other there needs to be an alternative government and an alternative force to step in once this regime falls that force is not there today if america or turkey or saudi arabia or nato went in and bombed this regime but i could get an a in libya you're going to get a civil war and the death rate is going to go up not down that's what happened in iraq and that's what unfortunately is happening in other places now what you have what is that i think now it simply won't go right but it's ten thousand when i hear what is happening that i. i know our leadership there clearly there are

a lot of research areas of america more it goes all the more approaches it would be ok diana john to jump in go ahead but it has to merge i r it's own well yes i am i just want to mention the fact that although we're talking about syria this situation does not only. concern syria and what is happening in syria there's also the the world there's also the fact that the united states by its very aggressive. posture of the i'm talking about the administration not american people i don't think have the same views is in fact being extremely aggressive in denying diplomacy denying the state sovereignty this aren t. of states and is running into conflict with russia that is extremely dangerous not

just for i mean you know there's others of us at stake there is there's a whole world is this crisis escalates into world war it will kill a lot more people than even exist in syria i'm sorry but you know this this is an extremely dangerous situation just and comfy and iran is trying to tone it down and i think that the united states is very irresponsible in not really supporting what coffee and iran is doing because they have not been supporting it they have been saying all of the work and all the work of all the work and then they accept prize that it doesn't work and they are doing everything to sabotage an international. compromise which has had some response from the syrian government they have promised reforms e.u. they're usually pushing them toward the reforms interesting although they're not going to do it they're not going to do it just if anybody on. dan is bringing up an

interesting point is what i wanted to bring up in this part of the program is the international effect here i'm not convinced there are many people in western capitals that care about the nature of democracy in syria or reform in syria i'm sorry i'm just not convinced of it given the past but it's about iran isn't it and if it's if they see it in syria if you can get take syria down one way or another it exposes the weaknesses of around that's a very cynical foreign policy but there's in between the lines that's what it seems like to me go ahead. well first of all it's true that if the syrian regime or other when it falls it will weaken iran it will weaken hizbullah in lebanon it is already having an effect by the way on the behavior of hamas which dropped out of the mask was out of their own will and can't seem to be entering gaza at least to some extent but look here is the problem with all that logic this civil war in syria they even started by any kind of western instigation it's outlived by the

syrian people that is to say it is not something that started by foreign instigation not the americans not attacks not the israelis for god's sake it's started by the syrian people so this is a given situation now and what i said before and i will repeat it now it's not a cloud democracy it's not about nation building you never ever use words from me i agree completely with joshua landis that there can be nation building from the outside in syria what i am saying is that if we are concerned as human beings with the level of violence in syria today what we need to do is to stop it and the only way to stop it right now would be to make sure that the syrian regime understand that it cannot slaughter its own people and it can be done in a way which is not going big syria from the outside are all kinds of other scenarios and i would also say one word to play on there is not going to be a world war over syria with all due respect all these scare tactics and you know

feel mongering it was kind of i don't know spare you find out if you are sure to say this is what about is here we are but nonetheless a way for you in which is the u.s. and russia ok josh what i can i go back to something you said earlier is that you know you know all of the different possibilities the outcomes here and none of the outcomes that we ever predicted in iraq or afghanistan in libya except or have ever come to fruition i mean why or are western capitals and politicians you know mccain and lieberman you know so gung ho on a place that we have very little knowledge we expert knowledge of which way you could go because we even have opposition groups committing atrocities we have religious fundamentalists there as well i mean are these the right people we want to be supporting. well unfortunately that's has a lot of domestic american politics coming into it and that's why they're taking the position that they are but but the. unfortunately syria has become internationalized it did start i agree with joseph it started as

a domestic squabble and now it's become internationalized because china and russia both are looking at syria as a bridgehead to iran and if the west is able to change the governments in syria taking down this key shiite power in the shiite crescent that ties hizbollah through iraq to iran then iran is likely to be next and already the west has put increasingly severe sanctions on iran china gets twenty percent of its. of its energy from iran and if the price of fuel energy goes goes up and it loses its investments in iran it'll be a big blow for china russia as well as look to iran as a partner if russia loses syria loses a seaport it loses a front row seat on the arab israeli conflict which was key in two thousand and eight in fighting in georgia because russia could threaten to give arms to syria

and and israel which was supplying georgia with arms immediately got frightened it said ok we won't supply any more arms to georgia so russia was able to use its position in syria in order to gain a big advantage internationally to i does not want to lose i actually agree with a lot with your exam and i've got to die and i actually say one thing i want to bring up i want to bring up our more is. there please i want to bring up before we go on is that there's international law it's stake here and you know we have western capitals that say they support international law and then flaunted it for over a decade now when it comes to this part of the world this is another issue the international real international community majority of people are looking at because this is what joshua had to say who's going to be next you know what scenario to take down another regime outside of international and i think we all need to remember that diana go ahead. well you know so i am course i agree with that but i want to come back because this business about iran i mean. the first

says that we won't have world war over syria no but we might have it over iran and you see exactly what what professor landis correctly said is that this is leading toward iran and let's face it the fact is that israel and its of very powerful friends in the united states every pushing pushing pushing some resistance i hope in the united states toward war with iran to protect israel and here's something i really want to say because. the fact is that that whole threat of iran has been hugely exaggerated and the real reason that israel is so upset about iran was said by everyone stay and two thousand and six and has been recreated by others is the danger isn't that iran would attack israel but that's a fact if if if it is iran has nuclear weapons it might frighten israelis into leaving israel and israel would lose population and it would destroy the zionist

dream personally i'd like to believe i was of the side of the story it was fifty given perry's go ahead go ahead joseph lowery so you respect it's not for you all sit in a very grave feel this while it's not for you're sitting in paris telling these released what will be afraid of for the lot when the president of your i'll say they want to look for the israelis to be telling me they want to do a lot of good of so every time out. not all day ok you never got any missile on your head to go through or be that i wish you would never have it but look i want i don't think you know your head well has all the signs of missiles israel is the nebulae oh really regev you know who you are. oh ok they are now ok let this is real frankly not the discussion that's kids picked up a serious situation are really hard. times the same discussion as always we do this topic many thanks my guest today in norman colombia and in paris and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are to see you next time and remember prost awful.

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