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unemployment reaches a critical twenty five percent. now the possibility of an all out war between sudan and south sudan is debated in peter lavelle's crosstalk. if you. still. need to.

follow in welcome to cross talk on futile about are they on the brink of war this is how the situation appears to be developing between the recently independent state of south sudan and its northern neighbor there's a lot at stake and it is said to be mostly about oil and power and the question arises is the south sudan strong enough to survive as a state. and you can. start. to cross-talk the twisted relations between sudan and south sudan i'm joined by olivia wore him in london she's director of waging peace also in london we have i'll johnson he is director at viewpoint africa and an award winning journalist on african affairs and in nairobi we go to wolf christian p.s. he is a fellow at the international conversion center bond all right folks this is cross-eyed that means you can jump in any time on live if i go to you first in london south sudan got its independence over a half a year ago i guess not much has been resolved as

a matter of michael closer you look at this situation between these two countries there's a lot of unresolved issues is this where the conflict is coming from or is it just a continuation of the civil war that ended in two thousand and five. well the civil war came to an end with the comprehensive peace agreement that was signed in two thousand and five and the problem with the referendum and the which was held last year which allowed the south to vote on whether or not its citizens would like independence that all went ahead smoothly but the problem with it was that it didn't resolve many of the issues that are still being fought over today those issues in particular the border. and which parts of it and how much the north will pay for the transit of it that the majority of the oil is based in the south but they at the moment need to transport it out through the north and also the citizenship of southerners who are living in the north no these issues are all yet to be resolved and it is that

a lack of political agreement to these which is causing the fighting between the two however it's also worth noting that a lot of the problems along the border up until only a couple of weeks ago have actually been north northeast use and not north south this so there's been a lot of fighting in the southern. states in the south of north sudan which have blue nile. and south kordofan between the sudanese army and rebel units within the south. big upon within the north who are have been marginalized for many many years. and are fighting the khartoum government to show their dissatisfaction ok i often go to you also on one of your stomach for a war between the two countries right now or is it just among leitz. well no i think the two leaders here in the north. in the south.

have actually shown that they lack leadership they're bitter enemies. they have fought a war protect a period of time that the south has now broken away and has actually had its own independence but there are some deep seated issues which are cultural which which which to do with trust issues which are really not resolved not to mention the land issue how it looks like to me that the civil war is still continuing which is see a different form of it and just a took a break well well the other took a break on the thought that they were fighting the war through a pop proxy war through some of the rebel movements that's where existing in both parts of the country but more so fundamentally i think the international community let them down when this formed south sudan without addressing the issues are on a beer which is one of the most fertile areas to do with the oil and very much how the oils would be shared especially when a large chunk of that oil is found in the south and it would appear that the pipelines which are very developed all go through the north so the process of

sharing that's all it was not to stop listen very much so the how the dinka and the tribes who are part of the big. section of the country have not truly been resolved and these two tribes longer heads with one another and it would appear that we're heading back into the territory where one would wish they weren't in the first place ok i want to talk about oil a little while for if i go to you in nairobi how much of it is there is this sudan and not accepting south sudan meaning it is it hasn't given up on at least germany if not more and how much is it the south really wanted to consolidate itself as a state because it's still early days for south sudan. well we'll it is indeed still in early days for south sudan i think the issues have already been addressed by the previous because i mean it is indeed a question of boarded imitation it's a matter of oil sharing i think the problem at the moment is that as you

were saying at the outset indeed we're drifting towards an all out war at the moment and there's to be you know we find some sort of diplomatic solution the next couple weeks or months at the very latest at the moment this is not about south sudan consolidating its position as a state because in a sense it's doing the polar opposite by stopping pumping oil in february south sudan is denying itself the one source of state revenue days and be the one form of economic activity there is other than agriculture so south sudan is becoming not more viable as a state but less viable the longer this last nobody knows how long the sort of cash reserves of the southern government will last most analysts i've been speaking to assume anything from one month two months to six months so at some stage later this year south sudan will run out of money even more quickly than north sudan as a matter of fact and of course this does not create a situation for consolidation very much one drifting towards mutual destruction in

a sense and i'm afraid this is where we heading at the moment olivia and i to continue with our point here i mean they were they were supposed to be interdependent that's one of the reasons why the quote unquote international community supported independence for the south this independence isn't working very well is it. well i think. the problem people say you know that oil is at the heart of it but i think. there's a new wants to that which is that the reason that oil is at the heart of it is that oil obviously creates an awful lot of money for a country and that money has largely stayed in khartoum and its surrounding areas and as a result other parts of sudan whether it's the south but also parts within the north the east blue nile south kordofan and also darfur which let's not forget has fighting for nine years now you know all these parts of sudan have been marginalized and. dispossessed of their rights and the people who see

themselves they identify themselves as black africans they have been treated very badly by the government in khartoum. sudan is seen as the second worst country in the world for its treatment of minority rights by minority rights group international and that is why these problems are occurring throughout sudan and along the border in the south so the interdependence becomes a real problem because you know the the issue is or oil but it's the finances and it's not just the south that we need to be looking at as i said earlier it's north northeast. ok we can continue with that theme here i mean it is a lot about oil and i want to talk about that in the second part of the program but is this also just a clash of civilizations i mean i mean we have we have really mixed communities to mix populations in each country and this is very dangerous because neither country

recognizes dual citizenship are you worried about something like ethnic cleansing at this point what you're absolutely i think cleansing is the problem clearly and i think back into history we would have to blame the british because they colonized. promoted christianity and pushed. to go into the south and the spread of it simply because to counter the spread of. the muslim religion in the north and of course when when when he came to independence they chose the north over the south and of course we know exactly the fact that the south had been used as slaves by the north so you've got these deep seated problems that go beyond what human beings can only comprehend with a level of hatred let lack of trust. and of cause the problems we're seeing now is as a result of both sides would don't seem to be able to resolve their differences which is why south sudan has split from the north but more so crucially the fact

that even in areas where both countries are meant to be responsible especially in the border areas they can't resolve or meet any differences or even identify any any common ground so that's a real worry for the international community if you said that you know you thought that what the south is doing with cutting off oil is a mistake is it hurts their viability is this just a call to the international community to solve this issue is that what their gambit is. well i think the fascinating question here is is is that at the end of the day really about oil because i mean if you look back to the recent occupation of the hague legal field you know a couple of weeks ago for which is our sudan now has withdrawn his troops because nominally south sudan was gaining nothing by this because just by occupying even more areas but without an outlet for the oil the balance of power is not shifting the favor economical you know why it just sounded too so why did the south do it then why did the south do it. you know they were denying the other side the oil

because as you previous because i've been saying yes the majority of the oil is in south sudan but not all of the oil and by stopping pumping their own oil and transferring it's through the pipeline because they had no more revenue by taking the hague legal oil field they were basic cutting the government in khartoum from forty percent of its oil production increasing their economic difficulties so it's not so much about gaining anything at least not in the short run it's about denying the other side. ok olivier already had. the south of. the government of the south their rhetoric on it was that they invaded area because that was the north was launching planes which were bombing southern territory so. they felt that it was in in their right to try to prevent. the north from bombing their own civilians they were not hitting military targets that it's been proven they were hitting civilian targets in the south and they.

went into head leg to stop that happening and then withdraw again but i think some of the care is playing a very dangerous diplomatic strategy here i think is trying to appease to the international community sure that is a states man to show that he can get a lot of support and show that he's not the aggressor as the victim and i think on the other hand but who's who's been who has not really supported by the west specifically is seen as the aggressor and i think kerry is actually playing on this game plan which is why i think he he went into hackley. we must remember it was the south of twenty to the north. of course the rest that we're seeing now is history so somehow he's trying to play this diplomatic machine ok let me jump in here you know we're short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion of the tensions between the two sudans states r.t. . if you.

want to. blame us for spring overseas migrate three birds will come home to roost. when their muscles great. empathy gives way to order of the oceans. towards those who live on the current.

and it. will come across to you all to mind you were talking about the conflict between sudan and its northern neighbor. and you. know if i go back to you in london in retrospect ok over looking at what's happened

over the looking at the civil war and what's happened in the last year was pushing for independence premature because we were the one in the on the program that listed all of these differences and i'm afraid they're very very serious differences was pushing independence for the south premature. but i think if you ask a southerner no it wasn't and that was it reflected by the fact that ninety eight point nine percent of them voted for independence when you've enjoyed a twenty year civil war in a let's not forget i was two we can't begin to imagine what that's like you know for the individuals who have gone through that i think that they felt their only option by that point was to separate themselves from the north they weren't being offered any sensible practical political solution to this where they really were going to participate in a northern government in a way that they felt was genuine so that left them with no other option other than separation ok well finally one of the things i've been looking at over the years in

going all the way back at the to the end of the yugoslavia is that you know primarily western countries were saying these countries should be independent they want to have self-determination but then the international community doesn't follow up ok and then we had a disastrous civil war in yugoslavia what does it worry you when the international community supports the independence of a country but then doesn't back it up because you know sudan has a heck of a lot of oil but can it protect itself against a very aggressive north sudan in the north you know i think we must not forget that the comprehensive peace agreement was not at the outset about independence for themselves it was about reforming the whole of sudan and the problem is and this is indeed where think the international community is two fold is that over the six year period of implementation of the c.p.a. five year period of implementation we have at least after the death of john garang the first leader of south sudan basically people have forgotten about this and the

drive towards independence for south sudan which was meant to be sort of the fall back option right to do the whole reform thing doesn't work for the whole country south sudan should be given the choice to determine whether it wanted to be part of the state anymore but it wasn't the original scenario at least western powers. i had great hopes for democratic zation for many minority rights for a more equitable sharing of power and i mean all of these issues are still there and then i don't quite know maybe in two thousand and seven two thousand and eight the focus became preparing for independence when within the b.s.p. the governing party of the sow's the faction which was in favor of independence of secession from the north again the upper hand but that was in the original plan and i think for many people certainly not in the international community and the problem as some other speakers have been saying before me already is that so many issues were under evolved and now we see the backslash because of that because the

borders are not democratic because we don't have minority rights in the north all of this is absolutely true but all of these issues should have been addressed in the course of the c.p.a. and and the problem is selective implementation of the c.p.a. and now we are we are sort of seeing what is happening if you don't take all the boxes before you let the country become independent so what previously was in internal sudanese conflict i mean as people have been saying the north north conflict is now a conflict between two sovereign states because south sudan is independent and that actually means the international community has fewer fewer powers at the disposal to influence the process then during the transition period so in a sense we're worse off than if we had tried to address and that's exactly what i'm getting ready to think about how we're worse off now than before and i want to keep in mind that you know almost two million people died during the civil war so i don't want to exaggerate this here ok the situation today talking about two million people dying during the civil war talk about all the people who are migrating

currently because of the fighting here yes i think clearly i think the the international community has three key people who. have let the world down and these are the chinese are one the russians are two and the the americans three key stakeholders in the. the oil wealth of the sudan. could have insisted that all these issues were resolved that didn't. speak correctly the chinese are in a very difficult position trying to form a relationship with the south to get their oil at the same time trying to maintain an all relationship with the north who don't have oil but who they can actually sell arms true so when you find out that key stakeholders do not need top and actually apply pressure on the two governments to comply and keep away from war there then you can have the problems which are the ones we're facing currently in

libya if i go back to you what kind of leverage do the chinese have we know that the south sudanese president was visiting china you know the chinese are a huge stakeholder in these two countries right now we know that they don't want to take a very public view which is probably unfortunate but what can they do privately they have a lot of interests in the country they have a lot of interest in both countries and therefore it goes without saying that they no doubt can influence them it's difficult to know what is going on because as you say it certainly happens behind the scenes china hasn't changed its starts. on saying that its foreign policy is one of noninterference they don't want anyone to look into their backyard for very good reasons that the human rights ground we all know about so therefore they're they're not going to do that to any other country so that means that certainly publicly they're not getting anything like it evolved involved as many people would like to see them being. they are i think doing more

and more behind the scenes but it's as i say it's difficult to comment on on what that is but i think that i think we all welcome as much involvement in a positive way from from the chinese and i also agree that when you do have a situation where a government has consistently been bombing its own civilians. has caused a twenty year civil war was the first place to lay that blame is is with that government the next step is what the international community can be doing and i think it's absolutely right that in the last few years the international community has not done enough to bring this to an end in a more comprehensive way you know wolf it would you say that there is sudan fatigue in the international community right now. well i definitely would say there was sudan for teac in the last couple of years of the c.p.a. i think now i mean you know you know last year last year that was the big happy bit happy birthday south sudan you know and all of the issues where there was you know

was a blip there was a ok there was there was a blip i mean the before or before the independence the maybe the last two years of the c.p.a. there was really for tikkun people said oh we've heard all the arguments before and well you know we will resolve these issues eventually but you know nobody was putting a lot of pressure and then of course we had the birthday celebrations everyone was happy but here was a visiting juba everyone was making the right noises about friendly neighborly relations and immediately afterwards after the birthday party. said back in and actually i think at the moment we're not in a phase of sudan for to much to the contrary we're in a phase of frantic activism where we have people in the security council in the foreign capitals are trying to find a solution it's just a bit late in the day to do so so i think our time window you know we should have tried to resolve this back in two thousand and eight of course we didn't there's no point in crying over spilled milk so the only i can see for the moment is bringing the two parties back to the negotiation table as quickly as possible make sure that

the violence the north but ideally also norse nourse comes to an end at least in some form or ceasefire and that we find an agreement for the oil because if we don't do so certainly both countries are on the pass to self-destruction i what do you think about that i mean i go ahead jump in because you know both sides have made it very clear at least publicly they want to talk to each other that's not a good beginning go ahead my friend well i still think that the south salva kiir is only got a diplomatic to play he can't fight the north militarily because he's not strong enough you understand that very well and i hope he does and the north has way too many military machine and military light to compete with them and besides the. south is trying to build its own economy which is folly intensive purposes is not really working at the moment the hyperinflation the a lot of communities don't have access to. health care education not to mention

a lot of the roads a latch right anyway so so you have a lot of problem with infrastructure so he's got to really focus on that i think is a massive distraction and the sooner they can actually resolve their differences the better for you for the south so i do believe that he's only going to play a diplomatic game to show that he's in control to to last as much support and to try and show the world in his own way that the north is the aggressor because militarily i think i do i can believe that they will go to war livio what do you think about that that's true and that's a huge huge gamble isn't it well i agree i can't i can't quite see that this will become a full scale war because i don't think the country can afford it. i also not convinced that really has was the might have the military might which is no doubt true and much more so than the south is spent an awful lot more money on it. if he is increasingly lacking supportive of his people and that's a very pointed out. knew most parts of his country he was fighting already some of

these were ones where he traditionally has recruited troops from so you know that in itself causes him a problem within the military they've also been. many more uprisings in the last year since the arab spring started within khartoum which have been brutally put down. his power base i think is not what it used to be people have talked about a soft military coup and that's the reason that we've seen. this is what i am faced in the last year since independence that you know the north. so better and humiliated about losing the south that response to it has been to show the iron fist but as i say they don't he doesn't have the money i don't believe and the support to really continue with this ok wolf i'm going to be the last word on the program is this really a problem or about sudan proper itself the north the northern neighbor than about the south reacting to what olivier just said well. i'm not

sure i mean the libya i mentioned talk about a soft to military takeover and. i do wonder whether something similar is not happening in the south as well. president salva kiir has for the most part of the last five years since he has been in office. been very keen at least publicly making all the right noises about finding our enemies in germany here we have run out of time also i hope we won't be doing a program on sudan ok many thanks to my guest today in london and in nairobi and thanks to our viewers for watching us here r.t. see you next time and remember. you can.