tv [untitled] May 24, 2012 9:30am-10:00am EDT
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five thirty pm in moscow these iraqi headlines egyptians are voting for a second day still unclear over which powers the ruling military will cede and whether the winner will respect the people's revolution none of the thirteen candidates is expected to win a majority which will mean another poll next month. latvia's nursery nightmare nazi sympathizers film showing off the real weapons of war to kindergarten kids billed as an essential national history lesson it's nonetheless raising the alarm over the glorification of naziism. iran nuclear talks resume but progress proves elusive as tehran says it won't curb its activities without the west reducing sanctions
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iranian officials say the talks are tricky because america and the e.u. stance is almost as tough as that of israel. up next russian and u.s. foreign policy under the spotlight with stay with us. the welcome to spotlight and so you show on hard to. put into this in may have been speculations about his foreign policy strategy and
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particularly about rush limbaugh like. power and possibly the foreign policy may change to americans will decide whether to elect a new president. so is there any children and relations between moscow and washington is the famous i have. always said to do discuss with ariel cohen a political analyst and a brillant at thirty one russia and russia. russia america relations have always been sensitive three years ago president obama and medvedev ended nearly a decade of standoff declaring a reset relations it has served well but power has changed in russia and the first step of the new president vladimir putin was a refusal to attend the g eight meeting in america he said he was too busy forming a new cabinet in the us a power shift is possible to the presidential election is
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due in november and if barack obama fails to return to office the republicans seem likely to resort to colder a tory towards russia among the issues moscow and washington are already. stock on the missile shield in eastern europe alleged human rights abuses in russia and problems in the middle east. political welcome to the show thank you very much for being with us well let's start with putin's foreign policy will he started his presidency by sending his prime minister to sit in in camp david prime minister in russia isn't engaged in foreign policy usually i mean this is this is the tradition so how was it it. seen in the united states the big deal that didn't didn't come to the g. eight i think there were some eyebrows raised because mr obama expected
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to put in the obama administration invited. the middle of the rich to visit the united states maybe a year and a half even before and expected him to come. unfortunately president bush it was too busy. as he told president obama. selecting his cabinet. and instead the prime minister who normally present the cabinet to the president went to the united states prime minister media age of has a good relationship with the but i could bomb of the met last year they had burgers together etc so there is a relationship there how late it had burgers and cetera quality time yes. but i would say that g eight normally is a meeting of heads of state of the eight largest economies and we have a very difficult economic situation in the world maybe mr putin was anxious that
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the europeans will be asking for loans from russia and didn't want to give them loans i'm speculating i'm not being serious right now but the fact that the first major foreign visit of mr putin is going to be to china indicates we're at what i've been through. what they call the union state clearly it is in russia it's called so use the. joint venture and this is a visit that will probably outline the ways for the worse for integration biller us into russia but the real foreign visit that puts in starts his third term is to china and that should be taken as a note as as a hint for the direction of mr putin's foreign policy because biggest china is the
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number one his national rival for the u.s. to his china is a rising power. it is a game of words whether we call it a rising superpower china's g.d.p. is as large as ten trillion dollars while the u.s. g.d.p. is fourteen trillion and the chinese. economic growth is eight nine ten percent a year so it is a matter of time when china is catching up with the united states in terms of the size of the g.d.p. of course because of china's population g.d.p. per capita is much smaller but nevertheless china is taking seriously in the united states the policy of the bomber administration is called pivot to asia which means the u.s. will emphasize economic and strategic toys with asian countries so the fact that russia is increasing its trade with china russia is in tandem with
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china on issues like your on and syria we saw the votes in the united nations this is an indication of a new balance of power in the world will says very muscular get back to to to rush through lucian's putin's third term rooted to the kremlin is of considered by the american stablish in general as as values not so bad because you remember his his election campaign it was pretty pretty hard i mean even towards him but this is an election campaign i mean right but on the other hand i would argue that mr putin did not need a harsh anti-american rhetoric to get elected. and i think it's not the issue of bad news or good news it is the issue of realistic relationship and i do believe myself that the so-called reset that was planned with continuation of mr medvedev presidency as the obama administration irani asli
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thought is going to happen that policy is reaching its limits whether it's the disagreements on missile defense whether it's conflict around syria whether it is orientation towards china. the united states and russia have a lot of issues that are of mutual interest and i think there are ways to find cooperative pathways into the future and put a little you know exactly what i'm trying to say is that having illusions about. a very good relationship does not necessarily mean we cannot corporate in other areas but we do have and we have to recognize areas of disagreements and work to resolve these disagreements you mentioned the missile
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defense put also missed the the need to send the do you think this is this is because of the the missile defense disagreements that we have do you think a compromise is still possible on this issue it depends what the positions of the sides are if russia insists on a say in the architecture or in numbers of interceptors or location of interceptors then it's more difficult to have a compromise if on the other hand. for example in the new obama if obama is reelected which is an if i really believe that is impossible to predict whether obama is going to be elected or not but they're very close they're very. harold wilson used to say a week is a long time politics. if obama is reelected as we heard been so when he told me did say if you wait till after the election he may go out of his
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way and and try to reach a compromise with mr cooper you said russia will insist on come russia one thing that as far as i understand russia wants is that washington puts something is right in writing because for example this sunday they launched the first stage of this european and tell us they said this is not against you. not a single miss out will be into russia why don't they put it in writing this is this is all russia one zero zero zero as i understand well no no no russia wants more right this is that this is the start of course this is this is a negotiating strategy and we've seen arms control negotiations being very sophisticated complicated in the cold war as you and i remember but here if you say it's not aimed at russia there are implications that will limit the number and the architecture and the characteristics of this missile defense and both the republican and the democratic administrations and the pentagon in the us are not
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willing to do that why because if you say it's not aimed at russia then the question the next question will be why can this missile has a capability or of hitting a russian strategic missile whereas i maintain that regardless of the architecture the united states will never go to a situation in which the united states will deliver the first strike against russia and without this scenario the doomsday scenario the armageddon of us delivering the first strike all russian concerns and fears about missile defense don't make any sense because regardless of what architecture or numbers you have it cannot shoot down fifteen hundred missiles it can shoot done maybe fifty seventy one hundred missiles and that of course may happen only in the disarming strike and even then
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the american missile defense cannot disarm russian nuclear submarines so that's why i'm a little bit skeptical about the russian position every human should this open mike incident still that that man made that if you will this remark. about about being ready for a concession with russia did it. was it really a big a major blow for a band whose reputation may this be the reason why he later said that he may he may prove of gay marriage because he had to have to heal that i deny any connection between a marriage and missile yes i mean we don't go that far but seriously i do not see right now and focus on foreign policy in the u.s. election campaign i don't see a focus on russia i'll be frank it is mostly about the economy it is as bill
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clinton used to say it is the economy stupid or as republicans say now it is about the economy and we the republicans are not stupid so you can distract the public opinion with talking about gay marriage you're talking about student loans we're talking about race but the bottom line is people the age of our children who graduate from college now people in their twenty's. about one in two college graduates cannot find a job. the unemployment is still over eight percent and historically not a single president in the united states was reelected with unemployment over eight percent says ariel cohen senior fellow at the heritage foundation spotlight will be back shortly after we take a break so stay with anger. there
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we want to present. something else. welcome back to spotlight i remember growing up in just a reminder that my guest on the show today is ariel cohen senior fellow at the heritage foundation oh well we we we we started talking about about the. possible reelection. about our election of a republican candidate in the united states but well do you think that. the change of. the head of the white house may may be of crucial importance for the relations of washington and moscow baby because moscow
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is pretty much concerned about their relations with that stance here that maybe even more than that then washington. i agree that relations with russia are not the top priority in washington today in terms of foreign policy i would say relations with china are withdrawn from afghanistan the iranian crisis syria these are more important subjects and i do think that russia likes to be in probably the for three. issues and sometimes i have a suspicion that it causes a little bit of. erratic behavior or trying to get attention not in the best way but. regardless of that i think that the next administration if it's a republican administration will. be pragmatic
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will clearly pay attention to us defense. but at the same time we are facing very serious budget cuts and the big fight in washington is between those who would like to cut the military budget like the white house today the obama administration and those of us like my institution the heritage foundation who would like to keep the military budget as it is and keep about four percent of the g.d.p. for defense. and i think four percent historically is not is not high elevation of the g.d.p. for defense and we have new systems of weapons we have ongoing commitment to afghanistan of course it will be drawn down but we will still
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have trainers special forces intelligence etc. and we also have to replace a lot of equipment that got worn out after ten years of eleven years of wars in afghanistan and iraq and that equipment needs to be replaced so without a build military build up. we still need to have a robust defense and that will be that is and will be a republican priority but still a you you didn't think you'll deny that the president of it really invested heavily into relations with me to medvedev because there are lots of expectations. they they they considered him to be more liberal more more easy to to to make deals with that resect policy do you think reset will survive. during putin's to power you know the russian american relations are over two hundred years old and we
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just celebrated not too long ago maybe last year it was a celebration of two hundred years we've seen it since you in the u.s. russia relations what i'm saying is that these are two great powers u.s. is still the largest the strongest country in the world and while we disagree on a number of issues we should not as some people do in russia i mean. become hysterical about it or you know you read stuff the trying to depict the united states as some kind of of some kind of an evil empire to borrow a phrase from star wars or from ronald reagan of course united states is not an evil empire and united states is not does not wish to destroy russia what we do support and it's no secret republican and democratic administrations our openness democracy human rights we saw the united states paid
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a price in our relationship with china for example by defending a blind chinese lawyer who is a human rights. activist on the eve of hillary clinton's visit but to get personal like we saw attacks on michael mcfaul then bass it was so personal attacks on hillary clinton i think there's no place for that in our relationship well anyway you mentioned human rights issue well in one of those present first presidential orders putin has charged russian diplomats with the task of derailing the magnitsky so what would you say today there were we will what's your judgment is it a matter of when or if. you mean that the mug mediately isley have a sassy while for those arliss viewers who did not follow that the magnitsky legislation is named after said give magnitsky who was a russian lawyer who died in detention who was accused of tax evasion of tax fraud
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and. he exposed his supporters believe massive fraud in the russian federation thank you thank you for doing my job i could have done better here the world. the magnitsky act is a bipartisan piece of legislation that will target officials not just russian officials or officials from anywhere in the world who violated human rights and who either want to travel to the united states or have illegal assets overseas and these assets may be. seized by law enforcement. through due process. i do believe that the mug needs ski act will be a prerequisite for a lifting of the jackson van dyk jackson verdict denied the soviet union. what is called p.n.t.r.
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permanent normal trade relations are the most favorable natured used to be called more and more several nations notice and flag needs has nothing to do with magnitsky is a. pointed legislation that looks to isolate people who massively violate human rights on the one hand for russia it may be in it may sound as ok and magnitsky act it may help the americans too to influence a well they're a bunch of scoundrels but on the other hand it will it will facilitate trade relations but on the other hand firstly the jackson verdict amendment is not working anyway well it is bad but no it's not it's not your right because every president yet for the last twenty years lifted it with the here to here but it's symbolically important because this was a legacy of the cold war and we're putting it behind us but there's another even
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more symbolic thing that if you if you passed in the act it may be a precedent that the congress will have a say in issuing these arrested. well right no i do i do think though the i don't think the staid state depart will be happy about what i said before and it is not happy about it but i would stress that this is a bipartisan initiative senator cardin who is a democrat is a principal cause sponsor if and i would argue now that the magnitsky act is doing a favor to the russian law enforcement because those people who the russian law enforcement fails to punish will be singled out and will be shamed named and blamed by congress and by the state department already today people who were involved in prosecution and death of sergei magnitsky are not allowed to travel to the united states so this is nothing new here even before the law is in act it the
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state department is blocking these people so having a law that singles out. massive blatant persistent violators of human rights not just in russia but it can be in china in burma in africa you name it when the domestic legal system is not succeeding in dealing with this people and i would point out that both mr putin and mr medvedev talked about. the where of wolves an apple is that was a term in russia where wolves and pullets in law enforcement in one way or another operative lee internationally these people are being dealt with ok well let's we really have time so couple of issues international issues where both russia and the u.s. are engaged first of all the iranian issue you mentioned one of the major issues of
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use for bouncy do you think that to do you think iran will continue to be at the point of a. disagreement between washington moscow book i can tell you that both russia. the united states will be very uncomfortable if iran became a nuclear power or nuclear armed power and i hope that. the. i think its p five plus germany p five plus one the permanent five members and germany will succeed of stopping the iranian program i think the obama administration went to a major concession by agreeing for the iranian enrichment but this will be in exchange for iran not producing nuclear weapons but i'm pessimistic it is iran after all and afghanistan do you think of ghana's stand will continue to be to be a place of computation between russia and america even though russia may not
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america may not need the airfields anymore it's i very much hope that it is in our both of our interests to prevent the taliban from spilling over into central asia that we don't want the taliban to destabilize. the five central asian post soviet countries we don't need russia to become militarily engaged russia doesn't really want to do it doesn't have capability of going to war in central asia so yes there is a confluence of interests not just between us and russia but also with china not to create instability in the heart of eurasia thank you thank you very much for being with us and just a reminder that my guest today was ariel cohen senior fellow had the heritage foundation and that's it now from all of us here if you want to have your sound card live or have someone money do you think i should until next time to drop me a line alan our. diets are here and let's kick start like. moving back to the
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