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following welcome to cross talk you know all about just talking the talk this may be the ultimate outcome of the talks in baghdad over iran's nuclear program are the western powers truly interested in finding a peaceful and diplomatic solution with the ground or is it merely a public relations stunt before the start of another war of choice. and. crosstalk diplomatic initiatives i'm joined by nader in washington he's a senior international policy analyst at rand corporation in london we have is kandahar said de boer e.g.d. he is a researcher at the university of oxford and in paris we go to hooshang amirahmadi he is a professor of international development and policy all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want we're seeing in paris if i go to you first what is the what are the likelihood that this summit that we

have in baghdad discussing iran's like your program will yield any results i think all of us in the program have seen the can kicked down the road for a very long time what's different if anything this time round. well i think this is a replay of the past negotiation tactics and a part of the united states and its allies it's basically putting its maximum demand on the table without really giving anything back to iran and the assumption is that iran did they decide actions are crippling the economy that mr harmony is desperate to make a did and therefore there is no reason to give in and i mean this is that if play of what they really happened in paris you know agreement and do a deal you're open it went forward with that package that president hatami have a reformist president called it coaching call it an insult to detainee

a nation. on the unfortunate because yes the sanctions are impacting on iran they did the government is in trouble this society is under pressure but i think the west is making a wrong assumption that under pressure and intimidation they can get what they want from iran i mean this is not make leaders in tehran may give in to some extent but that is that red line that they cannot pass muster how many wins only if it was not about some of those red lines of my eyes isn't going to be able to if i go to london here what are those red lines there i mean it seems like more and more pressure is being put on iran but fewer and fewer incentives without a fair assessment. i think we just heard recently a new batch of sanctions passed in the senate which are unilateral and they one of the link to the security council and that's something which obviously i just wasn't going to encourage terror on to give up necessarily anything but also on the other

hand i think there is a fundamental difference with paris and the paris agreement. showing referred to in the sense that at that time iran had suspended enrichment and had applied to voluntarily the additional protocol and now in contrast iran is producing ninety percent five percent enriched uranium. centrifuges increasing centrifuges even today just recent news came out that in four door they've increased the number of centuries of another hundred well over two hundred fifty centuries in for the underground facility to which i mean it's very early and i can stay with you if i can stay with you so the more pressure you apply on the around the more it pursues its program that seems to be the logic. well not exactly i think but i'm glad i'm saying that there is a bit of maximal demand in so far as iran has and i mean the united states and the international community haven't demanded that iran cease all in richmond two thousand and three point five percent uranium enrichment which only the united states vienna in two thousand and nine offered to iran russia. iran such

a plan and iran rejected because his own factional sort of infighting now in the equation is changing obviously iran is continuing apace to expand its program program and i think the united states and i think the west in the members of the p five plus one have to some extent realize that i do think if the talks did break down there is going to be a splintering of the p five plus one because that for the united states unilaterally pursuit of sanctions i can't see either russia or china being very willing or accommodating to increase basically the pressure and tighten the screws even further even though it has clearly shown that he's very committed to their children policy which involves the application of sanctions will never lead showing a readiness for the carrots and sticks as if i can go to use it is this just a plan to fail did they do that does the west want this these talks to fail to show we went the extra mile away try and we tried to deal with them but you can't

negotiate with the iranians the kind of the typical thing you hear in western media . i think no i think we want to deal with iran because all sides are aware that if there is not a deal then there is a potential for an israeli military strike against iran and that could lead to a region wide. military conflict pitting all sides against each other so i think the united states and the p five plus one are very serious about these talks and they want the talks to succeed and i disagree i think we are putting our offer is on the table there's a lot of pressure on terror on we seen the pressure work to some extent the leadership has come to the table and right now they want sanctions relief but iran also has to show that it's serious about the targets that has to offer confidence building measures that has to show the international community not just the united states and the p five plus one but really the international community which opposes the iranian nuclear program or the nuclear weapons program anyway is that iran

syria is about offering some incentives offering a way for us to have confidence and stability as it i can tell you now the question is what kind of incentives are being given to iran i mean we hear no talk of lifting sanctions all we hear is more and more sanctions i mean what kind of deal will we get where they think that's necessarily the case right now it's going to london go ahead to put as far as the spoken about as far as i know because russians are spoken about sanctions as a case of volume so we can actually increase the volume or we can decrease the volume i think is actually kind of misplaced for iran and as unrealistic expectation because we still have a set do we have a sort of positive reception by a man of his visit to tehran the prospects of visiting certain sites which are basically allegedly involved in nuclear weapons research prior to two thousand and four and as far as i can see there has been some forward movement but iran can

expect with so little there's been it's a ten year deadlock we can't expect that impasse to be overcome in a matter of a two day meeting it's just realistic in iran i think really serious which is going ok if i go back to you in paris are these unrealistic expectations go ahead. it again there are certain expectations that are not and realistic but others are for example i think it is not an realistic to expect iran to approve and implement the additional protocol. here for. this part you know in a spec show an intrusive inspections and that kind of a stub i think it is not realistic to expect iran to be more transparent i think it is and the other stick to expect iran at this moment at this time to close down for a door facility which they have they spent millions if not billions in

building dollars so it is also on realistic to expect iran to send of all its two hundred percent enriched uranium outside the country without india turn getting a commitment for terence reactors a fuel rods at twenty percent or more importantly some relief on sanctions for example the sanctions that are even coming forward in fact it is very funny you know what i mean not even after the there is nothing that are there is no appetite in the west or with sanctions if i go back to you is only in high a way is it i'd go to washington is iran in violation of the nonproliferation treaty. yes ok they are not being very transparent about what's going on in terms of experiments with nuclear weaponization for example a has stated that it is negotiating a deal with iran to open up some of the sites for example at patching but we have

to ask why iran has such an extensive uranium enrichment program surely i merely for civilian purposes one way you can build confidence is to ship out the twenty percent enriched uranium because it really doesn't need it and i think. we can offer iran fuel for the terror on research reactor so right there i think it's a realistic compromise from both sides iran will not necessarily have to close forward but it can agree to not enrich uranium up to twenty percent which in undergrad which is an underground military facility really and. they demand it. for those not and reaching for those not and reaching anything speak. that's not a facility that doing anything that that in richmond is going on in advance and elsewhere they put let me put it this way the bottom line is that iran for example iran has given really a large even during this round of negotiations not not to speak up before let me

give you two examples first iran has allowed the visiting are part sheen and in fact patchin has been has been in a spec that in the past by i.e.e.e. but sheen has been opened to are not only wants to ice the treaties but happened that by now the only problem in part a chain is that they have been asking for a special operation in gene that iran says is part of my military secret and i just can't open my military secrets to you and the second problem is on the interviewing the. scientists iran is saying listen i cannot do that because somehow someone here comes and sees my scientists and they cannot agree poor before we go to the break i want to go to work i'm going to london and murder if there are we go to break i want to get on i mean this is what's being brought up here is this very

intrusive i mean the the west wants to look at everything that's going on inside iran but they do have their own military security they have to look at i mean the it is a country surrounded by american bases. you know that's clearly the case i also do sympathize with the point i mean we've had five scientists who are civilians who have been assassinated obviously there is a sustained basically process or campaign of sabotage which is trying to actually you know i guess stall the iranian nuclear program that's all they've got to be taken to consideration and i'm sure that i i will answer them for the problem is that iran's nuclear file has been referred to the u.n. i see you have a united nations security council so it's no longer strictly within the remit of. the. the fact is that iran is in violation of u.n. i see resolutions it's not. gentlemen i'm going to jump in here we're going to wear shorts break after that short break we'll continue our discussion of the talks in baghdad state.

still. well the feeling is the name of the game when you're saving lives the distance most architectural masterpieces pleasers precision is what matters most the technology of the future so maybe it's your fingertips technology i'm getting here on the largest scale of the future.

and if you. start. coming rostock i'm about to mind you we're talking about iran's nuclear program. and if you. still exists. in washington there's more talk now and it's coming from israeli quarters and it's and certainly some western politicians are talking about it that iran should be denied any kind of nuclear program i mean it's really kind of upping the bar here do you think iran is being treated differently that the bar is set much higher for iran

than other countries and i'd like to point out to our viewers israel doesn't even talk about its own nuclear program with the rest of the world. well israel is publicly saying that iran should have your aim in richmond but privately there are indications that some israeli leaders are. more flexible on your aim in richmond and i think the united states would be flexible on your aim in richmond as well if iran is more transparent about its program then yes it has a right to enrich uranium for civilian private purposes under the n.p.t. i think it's wrong in behavior that's race especially and that iran has a nuclear weapons program and has not been up front about it and that has brought a lot of pressure against iran this is something that they brought upon themselves and that's necessarily sure there's a different standard here ok one jumping go ahead. i think the main issues that i am taking up with the past research which related to military

purposes i think at the moment is for the it is in the times it is monitoring iran's enrichment activities obviously the main problem i see is that twenty four seven it is monitoring iran's activities the main fear is given the stockpile which iran has the nineteen point seven five percent stock part is that it could have a breakout capability if it chose to withdraw from the n.p.t. it could break out within within a bit perhaps a year or two years or three is a lot of basic dispute over how quickly iran could actually weaponize its program but i was like i want to just reiterate israeli. the head of the i.d.f. has said. iran hasn't taken that decision the head of the former head of israel's internal security has said the iran hasn't taken a sitter on the netanyahu government is engaging in demagoguery i thought you know also the former head of my degen has said very clearly that iran hasn't taken that step but then sanctions need to be applied and iran and i think they're having an effect we've seen some of the most frankly reactionary elements in the iranian regime people like cosmos idea c.d.p.

who is the i want to pry of private prayer leaders who actually link to the bad job of women in the rain and women to said quite frankly that sanctions need to be lifted i live in a bridge area the who is the head of the parliamentary commission of national security and foreign policy has also said that the sanctions need to be lifted and i also think there was this rumor which i jolly implored. cathy ashton saying that we need to basically need to lift sanctions or give us sanctions relief so i also think the iranians might have made a mistake and they basically showed their hand too quickly to the europeans and most of the elements of the p five plus one and this is why there have been less forthcoming with sanctions relief by just one so that i think like i said i think it's very unrealistic to expect and media to leave there has been talk and i think william hague a foreign minister of the u.k. even referred to it because of the impact on the you on the actual the european economy. the ability to actually enforce this involved is a sign of likely or it might be risky and they're assessing that at the moment and i think just recently south korea just said that is asking for an exemption from

the sanctions the european union the the banning on indemnity insurance on cargo carrier a new oil ok if i go back to paris three it was just mentioned earlier in the program is that the west is suspicious of iran better rand has really good reasons to be suspicious of the west as well. yes well let me let me start with that just in baghdad in i'm sorry in istanbul a month just about a month ago. the five plus one with iran decided in a course of action that they will move forward incrementally that they will be proportional they will be balanced in the way in what they do and that they disappear kate now just about a month after in baghdad none of those principles are being applied by five plus one now if you are sitting in tehran and if you are told us how many e the supreme leader who has put himself there activity in the middle of this very

dangerous game with the u.s. and five plus one other members of the five plus one what would you say to say listen just about a month ago they said hey now they are seeing be how can i trust moving forward the problem with the west is that any time it sees it and it is soft any order it says iran willing to to move forward they put that maximum demand on the table and that's wrong let me say this harmony has put himself in the middle of this game this time directly never before he has done this the failure of the failure of this negotiations in this round of negotiation will make him any by force to move all the way to the most radical position that he can ever take and that radical position in my view will be to give n.p.t. i.a.e.a.

at three months advance notice for getting out of n.p.t. and then move away from it i can promise you ok. that's a financial interest let me go to one inches closer to that action ok. i mean there seems to be. players on both sides that want to have a maximum position like that ok i mean you all you have to do is read the washington post in them in the wall street journal and you know you just get this this wolf of the you know let's really push them hard because they want these talks to fail they don't want to have a negotiator who what american politician want to say i made peace with iran i mean that's not going to go down very well ok after thirty years of this kind of hatred relationship between the two parties here no one's going to want to say they're the peacemaker people want to say they want to get rid of these people that's what we've heard for decades. regime change. the intended goal is nod to have a report with iranian regime the goal here is to buy time and make sure that iran

does not cross a red line on weaponization we're not talking about restoring relations with iran making peace with iran we're talking about stopping iran's nuclear weaponization and i think from that standpoint there are a lot of people within the u.s. government and national security establishment that are interested in that outcome and are serious about that outcome explicitly the u.s. calls not a regime change right now we want to stop the iranian nuclear weapons program and i think going back to the earlier statement that harmony may make the decision to exit the p.t. we have to look at what the situation in iran is and right now it's very vulnerable its economy has been very hard there are internal divisions within iran within the political system the population as the rest of the runyon regime is very well aware that it's under pressure and that it's not necessarily negotiating from a position of strength so they decide to go ahead with western education and their

direct cause advances of regarding that decision including military advisor you know you're going to go with desertion go ahead parish jump in. not that you know you know you know the islamic particularly resistance. believe me even if the u.s. would go to war with iran and destroy that country this islamic republic and this leadership not subnet to the pressure and intimidation they will not come to dinner knees just because the u.s. is putting pressure on damned it's sanctioning them we have seen this. you have to admit you have. these thought that iraq was sad we have seen a lot of this is on fortune had i have nothing that is logical and that's their weight. should go but me misunderstand or miscalculate the factor of culture of this distance particularly the shia culture of resistance in iran disguise this

guys are now even after fourteen hundred years they are still mourning this deterred the mom who who was killed in incredible hour by a guy called yeah i mean this is that culture now you are you are telling them you are frightening them by sanctions and that so you deposit ok i think i've done in germany the proud let me let me go back end up in let me go over to london let me go back to one here well what is the risk factor of making a mistake miscalculation here because you keep reading for months on end now you know what's the window of opportunity to attack iran i mean it's all over the place ok what is the level of miscalculation here when we're moving away from these talks in baghdad. no i just i described just a couple of points of want to show them so there is the there is a debate over the whole issue of resupply and i think both sides haven't really a creator what that means and i think iran has one basically conception of what

teresa prosody is and obviously the p five plus one particular united states has another idea of what resources there is far as i can see cathy ashton has sort of gone leaps and bounds to actually accommodate the iranians i saw like just in recent baggage she has all but wearing a basically a montoya like a long coat so there will be no offense to islamic sensibilities and as far as i know from what i hear from european devices or they are being extremely extremely accommodating because they do want to deal to be reached the other thing i wanted to say is that iran also has a cost benefit analysis i mean. the energy concious two percent of its energy needs isn't really rational is it really make a lot of sense to put a whole nation in jeopardy at stake of war because of two percent of your energy needs i didn't make much sense to me but yeah the prospect of a miscalculation is feasible like i said i think the dia arrival of france is something significant it does mean something i think some of his good peer vies have actually warned against michigan they said the commercial is not an option. of my i'm going to put out this report we have actually been very well received by

senior diplomats and such and we actually completely buy any option of a war of war because we say obvious is going to is going to do is drive the iranian program underground and like i said previously the weapon this isn't a weaponized the program hasn't been taken if it's basically united states or israel want to rescue undertake a bomb carry one it probably won't succeed one and second you have to happen every couple of years and then it probably won't even prevents iranian weaponized. into weapons. and i give you the last word what are the chances of war this year between the united states and iran. i think the chances of war are have decreased in recent months we have to wait and see what happens in baghdad if that completely fails. the chances of war increase if there are indications that tehran is serious about negotiations on the p five plus one can engage iran then i think chances of war decrease i think i would say i am cautiously optimistic right now that we can buy

ourselves a little more time i optimistic that this will be the end of the nuclear crisis not necessarily it will be the end of our problems with the iranian regime not necessarily as long as i regime is in power and terror on i wouldn't be surprised if there is crisis after crisis here well there's never much optimism we talk about this subject very thank you very much gentlemen thanks my guest today in washington and in paris and thanks to our viewers for watching us here on c.n.n. and remember crosstalk.