seven thirty pm in moscow these iraqi headlines syria's last chance the u.n. chief says that peace plan is the only option to end the fighting despite the organization slamming both sides for gross human rights abuses parties correspondent there are reports that rebels are mining social media networks to pinpoint possible future targets. in egypt the muslim brotherhood's candidate claims the lead in the presidential race setting the stage for a potential runoff go down with mubarak's last prime minister islamised mohamed morsy supporters have already thrown down the gauntlet and their shoes that are calling him a remnant of the old regime. detention for seven hundred students arrested in kind

of the increasingly furious rallies over college fees quebec's government introduced emergency laws to curb the protests that instead sparked further demonstrations. next people of ellen cross talk a guest discuss the latest round of baghdad talks on iran's nuclear program stay with us. well the british science. markets. scandal find out what's really happening to the global economy for a no holds barred look at the global financial headlines tune in to cause a report on r.t. . and.

hello and welcome to cross talk you all about just talking the talk this may be the ultimate outcome of the talks in baghdad over iran's nuclear program are the western powers truly interested in finding a peaceful and diplomatic solution with the ground or is it merely a public relations stunt before the start of another war of choice. and. crosstalk diplomatic initiatives i'm joined by nader in washington he's a senior international policy analyst at rand corporation in london we have is kandahar side they he is a researcher at the university of oxford and in paris we go to hooshang amirahmadi he is a professor of international development and policy all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want to shanghai in paris if

i go to you first what is the what are the likelihood that this summit that we have in baghdad discussing iran's like your program will yield any results i think all of us in the program have seen the can kicked down the road for a very long time what's different if anything this time round. well i think this is a replay of the past of negotiation tactics and a part of the united states and its allies it's basically putting its maximum demand on the table without really giving anything back to iran and the assumption is that iran did they decide actions are crippling the economy that mr harmony is desperate to make a did and therefore there is no reason to give in and i mean this is that in play of what that really happened in paris you know agreement and do a deal you're open it went forward with that package that president hatami have

a reformist president called it coaching call it an insult to detainee a nation. on the unfortunate because yes the sanctions are impacting on iran they did the government is in trouble this society is under pressure but i think the west is making a wrong assumption that under pressure and intimidation they can get what they want from iran i mean this is nomic leaders in tehran may give in to some extent but that is that red line that they cannot pass muster how many wins only if it was not about some of those red lines of my eyes is going to be able to if i go to london here what are those red lines there i mean it seems like more and more pressure is being put on iran but fewer and fewer incentives is not a fair assessment. i think we just heard recently a new batch of sanctions passed in the senate which are unilateral and they want to

link to the security council and that something was obviously i just wasn't going to encourage terror on to give up necessarily anything but also on the other hand i think there is a fundamental difference with paris and the paris agreement. referred to in the sense that at that time iran had suspended enrichment and had applied to voluntarily the additional protocol and now in contrast iran is producing ninety percent five percent enriched uranium. centrifuges increasing centrifuges even today just recent news came out that in four door they've increased the number of centuries of another hundred well over two hundred fifty centuries in for the underground facility which means very early on i can stay with you if i can stay with you so the more pressure you apply on the around the more it pursues its program that seems to be the logic. well not exactly i think but i'm glad i'm saying that there is a bit of maximal demand in so far as iran has and i mean the united states and the international community haven't demanded that iran cease all in richmond two

thousand and three point five percent uranium enrichment which only the united states vienna in two thousand and nine offered to iran russia. iran such a plan and iran rejected because its own factional sort of infighting now the equation is changing obviously iran is continuing a pace to expand its program program and i think the united states and i think the west and the members of the p five plus one have to some extent realize that i do think if the talks to break down there's going to be a splintering of the p five plus one because. the united states unilaterally pursuit of sanctions i can't see either russia or china being very willing or accommodating to increase basically the pressure and tighten the screws even further even though it has clearly shown that he's very committed to the fuel truck policy which involves the application of sanctions but never less showing a readiness for the carrots and sticks as if i can go to use it is this just a plan to fail did they do that does the west want this these talks to fail to show

we went the extra mile away try and we tried to deal with them but you can't negotiate with the iranians the kind of the typical thing you hear in western media . i think no i think we want to deal with iran because all sides are aware that if there is not a deal there is a potential for an israeli military strike against iran and i could lead to a region wide. military conflict pitting all sides against each other so i think the united states and the p five plus one are very serious about these talks and they want the talks to succeed and i disagree i think we are putting our offer is on the table there's a lot of pressure on terror and we seen that pressure work to some extent. leadership has come to the table and right now they want sanctions relief but iran also has to show that it's serious about the tot's it has to offer confidence building measures it has to show the international community not just the united states and the p five plus one but really the international community which opposes

the iranian nuclear program or the nuclear weapons program anyways that iran syria is about offering some incentives offering a way for us to have confidence in us to believe that i can tell you now the question what kind of incentives are being given to iran i mean we hear no talk of lifting sanctions all we hear is more and more sanctions i mean what kind of deal will we get where they think that's necessarily the case right. now let's go to london go ahead to put this was. spoken about as far as i know because russians are spoken about sanctions as a case of volume so we can actually increase the volume or we can decrease the volume i think is actually kind of misplaced for iran and as an unrealistic expectation because we still have a do we have a sort of positive reception by a man of his visit to iran the prospects of visiting certain sites which are basically allegedly involved in nuclear weapons research prior to two thousand and

four as far as i can see there has been some forward movement but iran can expect with so little there's been it's a ten year deadlock we can't expect that impasse to be overcome in a matter of a two day meeting it's just realistic in iran i think really serious which is going it's about ok if i go back to paris are these realistic expectations go ahead. it again there are certain expectations that are not and realistic but others are for example i think it is not an idealistic to expect iran to approve and implement the additional protocol. here for. a spot you know in a spec show an intrusive inspections and that kind of a sub i think it is not realistic to expect iran to be more transparent i think it is and the other stick to expect iran at this moment at this time to close down for a door facility which they have they spent millions if not billions in

building dollars so it is also an realistic to expect iran to send of all its two hundred percent enriched uranium outside the country without india turn getting a commitment for ten rounds reactors fuel rods at twenty percent or more importantly some relief on sanctions for example the sanctions that are even coming forward in fact it is very funny you know what i mean not even after the there is no salvation that are there is no appetite in the west or with sanctions if i go back to you is entirely is it i'd go to washington is iran in violation of the nonproliferation treaty. yes ok they are not being very transparent about what's going on in terms of experiments with nuclear weaponization for example a has

stated that it is negotiating a deal with iran to open up some of the sites for example at patching but we have to ask why iran has such an extensive uranium enrichment program sure least i merely for civilian purposes one way you can build confidence is to ship out the twenty percent enriched uranium because it really doesn't need it and i think. we can offer iran fuel for the terror on research reactor so right there i think it's a realistic compromise from both sides iran will not necessarily have to close forward but it can agree to not enrich uranium up to twenty percent which in undergrad which is an underground military facility really and. they demand it. for those not in reaching for those not and reaching anything to be a speak they say that's not a facility they're doing anything that that in richmond is going on in advance and elsewhere they put let me put it this way the bottom line is that iran for example

iran has given really a large even during this round of negotiations not not to speak up before let me give you two examples first iran has allowed the visiting our patching and in fact patching has been it has been in a spec that in the past by i.e.e.e. chain has been opened to i.e. it not only wants to isotropy tires but happened that by now the only problem in part a chain is that they have been asking for a special operation in gene that iran says is part of my military secret and i just can't open my military secrets to you and the second problem is on the interviewing the. scientists iran is saying listen i cannot do that because somehow someone here comes and sees my scientists and they can do a very poor before we go to the record i want to go to work i'm going to lie down

and murder there are we go to the break i want to get on and we did this is what's being brought up here is this very intrusive i mean the the west wants to look at everything that's going on inside iran but they do have their own military security they have to look at i mean the it is a country surrounded by american bases. you know that's clearly the case i also do sympathize with bush on this point i mean we've had five scientists who are civilians who have been assassinated to see there is a sustained basically process or campaign of sabotage which is trying to actually you know i guess stall the iranian nuclear program that's all they've got to be taken to consideration and i'm sure that i will answer them for the problem is that iran's nuclear file has been referred to the u.n. i see you have united nations security council so it's no longer strictly within the remit of. the way the fact is that iran is in violation of u.n. i see resolutions and snorts. gentlemen i'm going to go anywhere we're going to wear

shorts break after that short break we'll continue our discussion of the talks in fact that state. and. see. if you want to. do the. deal is a mission is the name of the gave whether you're saving lives in designing tomorrow's architectural masterpieces laser procedure is what matters most the technology of the future is already at your fingertips technology here on r.g.p. . the future avar.

i'll come back to the last time to remind you we're talking about iran's nuclear program. in washington there's more talk now and it's coming from israeli quarters and it's certainly some western politicians are talking about it that iran should be denied any kind of nuclear program i mean it's really kind of upping the bar here do you think iran is being treated differently that the bar is much higher for iran than other countries and i'd like to point out to our viewers israel doesn't even talk

about its own nuclear program with the rest of the world well israel is publicly saying that iran should have your aim in richmond but privately there are indications that some israeli leaders are are more flexible on your aim in richmond and i think the united states will be flexible on your aim in richmond as well if iran is more transparent about its program then yes it has a right to enrich uranium for civilian private purposes under the n.p.t. i think it's wrong in behavior that's race especially and that iran has a nuclear weapons program and has not been up front about it and that has brought a lot of pressure against iran this is something that they brought upon themselves so i don't i'm not that's necessarily sure there's a different standard here ok one jumping go ahead. well you know i think the main issues that i am taking up with the past research which related to military purposes i think at the moment is for the it is in the towns it is monitoring

iran's enrichment activities the main problem i see is that twenty four seven it is monitoring iran's activities the main fear is given the stockpile which iran has the nineteen point seven five percent stock part is that it could have a breakout capability if it chose to withdraw from the n.p.t. it could break out within within a bit perhaps a year or two years or three is a lot of basic dispute over how quickly iran could actually weaponize its program but i was like i want to just reiterate israeli. the head of the i.d.f. has said that iran hasn't taken that decision the head of the former head of israel's internal security has said that iran hasn't taken as iran the netanyahu government is engaging in demagoguery i thought you know also the former head of my degen has said very clearly that iran hasn't taken that step but then sanctions need to be applied and iran i think they're having an effect we've seen some of the most frankly reactionary elements in the iranian regime people like cars in the city who is the i want to cry friday prayer leaders who actually link to the bad

job of women in the rain and women to said quite frankly that sanctions need to be lifted i live in a bridge idea who is the head of the parliamentary commission of national security and foreign policy has also said that sanctions need to be lifted and i also think there was this rumor which i jolly implored. cathy ashton saying that we need to basically need to lift sanctions or give us sanctions relief so i also think the iranians might have made a mistake and they basically showed their hand too quickly to the europeans or most of the elements of the p five plus one and this is why there have been less forthcoming with sanctions relief by just one so that i think like i said i think it's very unrealistic to expect a media to leave there has been talk i think william hague of foreign minister of the u.k. even referred to it because of the impact on the you on the actual the european economy. the ability to actually enforce this involved is a sort of likely or it might be risky and they're assessing that at the moment and i think just recently south korea just said that is asking for an exemption from

the sanctions the european union the the banning on indemnity insurance on cargo carrier a new oil ok if i go back to paris three it was just mentioned earlier in the program is that the west is suspicious of iran better rand has really good reasons to be suspicious of the west as well. yes well let me let me start with that just in baghdad in i'm sorry in istanbul a month just about a month ago. the five plus one with iran decided in a course of action that they will move forward incrementally that they will be proportional they will be balanced in the way in what they do and that they disappear kate now just about a month after in baghdad none of those principles are being applied by five plus one now if you are sitting in tehran and if you are told us how many e the supremes leader who has put himself there actively in the middle of this very

dangerous game with the u.s. and five plus one other members of the five plus one what would you say to say listen just about a month ago they said hey now they are seeing be how can i trust moving forward the problem with the west is that any time it sees it and it is soft any order it says iran willing to to move forward they put that maximum demand on the table and that's wrong let me say this how many has put himself in the middle of this game this time directly never before he has done this the failure of the failure of this negotiations in this round of negotiation will make him any by force to move all the way to the most radical position that he can ever take and that radical position in my view will be to give n.p.t. i.a.e.a.

at three months advance notice for getting out of n.p.t. and then move away from it i can promise you ok. that's a financial interest let me go to one inches closer to that action. i mean there seems to be. players on both sides that want to have a maximum position like that ok i mean all you have to do is read the washington post in them in the wall street journal and you know you just get this this wolf of the you know let's really push them hard because they want these talks to fail they don't want to have a negotiator who what american politician want to say i made peace with iran i mean that's not going to go down very well ok after thirty years of this kind of hatred relationship between the two parties here no one's going to want to say they're the peacemaker people want to say they want to get rid of these people that's what we've heard for decades. regime change. the intended goal is nod to have a report with iranian regime the goal here is to buy time and make sure that iran

does not cross a red line on weaponization we're not talking about restoring relations with iran making peace with iran we're talking about stopping iran's nuclear weaponization and i think from that standpoint there are a lot of people within the u.s. government and national security establishment that are interested in that outcome and are serious about that outcome explicitly the u.s. calls not a regime change right now we want to stop the iranian nuclear weapons program and i think going back to the earlier statement that harmony may make the decision to exit the p.t. we have to look at what the situation in iran is and right now it's very vulnerable its economy has been very hard there are internal divisions within iran within the political system the population as raster of the runnion regime is very well aware that it's under pressure and that it's not necessarily negotiating from a position of strength so they decide to go ahead in addition to their direct positive months as a regarding that decision including military advisor you know you're going to go

with desertion go ahead parish jump in. now that you know you know you know the islamic particularly resistance. believe me even if the u.s. would go to war with iran and destroy that country this islamic republic and this leadership will not submit to the pressure and intimidation they will not come to did a nice just because the u.s. is putting pressure on damned it's sanctioning them we have seen this. you have to admit. these thought that iraq did was sad we have seen a lot of this is fortunate i am not saying that is logical that's the way. should go but me misunderstand or miscalculate the fact of culture of resistance particularly the shia culture of resistance in iran this guys this guys

are now even after fourteen hundred years they are still mourning this turn to mom who who was killed in incredible hour by a guy called yeah i mean this is that culture now you are you are telling them you are frightening them by sanctions and that was about ok i think i've done in germany the proud let me let me go back end up in let me go back to london let me go back to one here well what is the risk factor of making a mistake miscalculation here because you keep reading for months on end now you know what's the window of opportunity to attack iran i mean it's all over the place ok what is the level of miscalculation here when we're moving away from these talks in baghdad. no i just i described just a couple of points of i want to show them so there is the there is a debate over the whole issue of resupply and i think both sides haven't really create what that means and i think iran has one basically conception of what theresa prosody is and obviously the p five plus one particular united states has

another idea of what resources as far as i can see cathy ashton has sort of gone leaps and bounds to actually accommodate the iranians i saw like just in recent back that she was all but wearing a base that montoya like a long coat so there will be no offense to islamic sensibilities and as far as i know from what i hear from european devices or they are being extremely extremely accommodating because they do want a deal to be reached the other thing i want to say is that iran also has a cost benefit analysis i mean. the energy concious two percent of its energy needs isn't really rational is it really make a lot of sense to put a whole nation in jeopardy at stake of war because of two percent of your energy needs i doesn't make much sense to me but yeah the prospect of a miscalculation is feasible like i said i think the dia arrival of france is something significant it does mean something i think some of his good key advisors actually warned against michigan they said the commercial is not an option. my think tanks are going to put out this report we have actually been very well received by senior diplomats and such and we actually completely buy any option of

a war of war because we say obvious it's going to is always going to do is drive the iranian program underground and like i said previously the weapon this isn't a weaponized program hasn't been taken if it's basically united states or israel i want to ask you undertake a bomb we carry one it probably won't succeed one and second you have to happen every couple of years and then it probably won't even prevents iranian weaponized. want to weaponize it. and i give you the last word what are the chances of war this year between the united states and iran. i think the chances of war are have decreased in recent months we have to wait and see what happens in baghdad if that completely fails. the chances of increase if there are indications that iran is serious about negotiations on the p five plus one can engage iran then i think chances of war decrease i think i would say i am cautiously optimistic right now

that we can buy ourselves a little more time i optimistic that this will be the end of the nuclear crisis not necessarily it will be the end of our problems with the iranian regime not necessarily as long as i regime is in power and terror on i wouldn't be surprised if there is crisis after crisis and while there's never much optimism we talk about this subject very thank you very much gentlemen thanks my guest today in washington and in paris and thanks to our viewers for watching us here on c.n.n. never lost. anything.

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