we wanted to present. something you know. live from moscow this is our moment cross talk and all the headlines syria under siege saudi troops reportedly close in on the volatile country from the south as turkish units are lined up in the north and so on the eve of a crucial international crisis conference. the e.u. agrees to a new rescue agency for buying despite opposition from germany with future taxpayer funded bailouts for banks now set to even bypass the governments. and julian assange defies a police summons and remains holed up in the ecuadorian embassy in london awaiting for the latin american country to decide on his bid for political asylum. by my

colleague bill daughters here in half an hour's time but for the meantime it's the future of egypt up in the air and the focus of today's crosstalk. played live to the. moon is the magic of transforming airplanes into jet trains dirty diesels into green rail dreams double down on profits by building up instead of alex the germans will place east for the some technology here on r.g.p. . you. can. start.

a low in welcome across talk on peter lavelle egypt's soft coup after a popular uprising the toppling of a tyrant and a parliamentary and presidential election where does egypt's stand of the people of egypt been cheated out of their democratic hopes and aspirations and will the military ever leave power. can. start. to cross-talk egypt's democracy i'm joined by yaakov lapin in tel aviv he's a journalist for the jerusalem post and in london we crossed to david price jones he is a senior editor of national review or a gentleman cross-talk roles in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want they would have to go to you first and dave in london after two rounds of elections what is really changed in egypt the military is still very much in power and it does not give any appearance it's going to relinquish its influence and well when you called it a popular uprising and i wonder if that's an adequate description it seems to me

it's much more like a military coup and the then i what they're doing on the let me let me let me just tell me we don't know what a military coup against mubarak. is that what you're saying yes they've had enough of mubarak because he was trying to put his son into. the succession so there are thirty people who rule egypt you know another twenty nine they threw mubarak out of the window because they didn't want his son to succeed he's a very competent hard minded tough soldiers and it seems to me that to describe it as a popular uprising is very hopeful it isn't like that at all. they wanted to get rid of mubarak and they did it with a complicated but in the end successful way now they've been fighting the muslim brothers for about fifty years and the muslim brothers can take to the streets no doubt they may will take to the streets but the military have the tanks and airplanes and i would imagine that the muslim brothers

a shrewd enough not to push their luck ok david i mean we were just democracy fit in here if at all it doesn't fit there's no such thing. wishful thinking i'm sorry about that i've written a great deal to say that there should be there must be and in the end there will be democracy in the arab world but right now there isn't any because unfortunately they don't have the institutions how are you going to have a democracy when you've got a military council ruling which can dispense with parliament and appoint the judges as it sees fit and you on the other side you just got a group of people who. tried to form a party but they would the parliament in which they hope to sit you shut. the instruments of democracy and they're going to you in tel aviv what in your opinion what has changed in egypt the last year anything is david says nothing essentially except for minus one person. i think despite some of the

points it david made which i agree with on the whole a great deal has changed in egypt we've seen first of all a process in which. a great deal of people took to the streets to express their political opinions which was basically unheard of before the so-called revolution and second of all we've seen this process result in the representative from the muslim brotherhood party which has been under egyptian law and which has struggled for decades to get into a position of power well now one of the representatives from this movement is the head of the egyptian state of course that doesn't mean he has all the powers that he's supposed to have on what powers and what power does he have already does he have other than ruling is own gas at this point. we didn't know at this point he can form his own government he can form his own government and once those elections for the parliament which has now been dissolved once those elections take

place i don't see any reason to believe why the muslim brotherhood won't take control of the parliament once again together with the other islamists the islamists i think we have to remember our very paid majors all of the military to have the parliament again you know it's like the european union if you don't write your vote the right way you just keep voting in voting in voting. the crucial thing is who is going to be on david jolly and go ahead go ahead jump in who's going to draft the constitution it look like the muslim brothers because they have the majority in parliament and could draft a constitution and i think that was why the military acted to prevent them drafting a constitution and if they don't draft a constitution they've got no legal power at all and that's what the position that they find themselves in the the army has reserved all power for itself and by the way just pick up another point i mean have we not seen this kind of thing before i remember sixty seven when the whole of egypt turned out to cheer for nasa because

he'd be offered to resign in the wake of the sixty seven war so i'm not we seen demonstrations on the street before and the egyptians do that it doesn't mean it's got time to do with democracy or even. legitimate expression of anything except emotion ok i mean i think it's kind of dangerous i mean we could have people come out in the streets again and if democracy isn't the answer then maybe violence will be the answer for some people. i think that the muslim brotherhood and the egyptian military are on a collision path these are obviously the two most powerful organizations in egypt we have to remember that the muslim brotherhood has been waiting for this day for decades they are an organization which has cleverly provided medical and social assistance to egypt's poor on the condition that they also accept islamised indoctrination and the idea is that these masses who receive the help would one day be expected to pay them back quote unquote by voting for the muslim brotherhood if you look at the situation from the perspective of the brotherhood time is on their

side yes the military has taken back nearly all of its powers yes the military currently has all the important decisions but how long can that last how long can the military hold on to power eventually the muslim brotherhood is going to gain more and more state institutions in egypt and it's going to turn the tide in my opinion in its favor it's a very patient game they're playing and i think that they're winning ok david i mean we just heard that the green already had go ahead jump in yeah i agree with that they are playing a very skillful long term game and they've been doing that for a good while but if you read what they write if you read for instance. the people who have done this with muslim brothers pamphleteering and doctors i will hear you and so on what you find is that in the end violence is the determinant and if they don't get their way violence will erupt and they have that as a part of their philosophy because they believe that what they're doing is inspired

by. anything you do in defense of violence they would put it is justified so how how you can reason with that that's just an ideology and the ideology is impervious to somebody like me or you saying well let's wait a minute and examine your ideology. look at the ideology of the military it's more about their wealth and position right i mean they don't want to give that up i mean estimates vary but up to forty percent of the economy is controlled by the military they don't want to give that up. they will keep your problem if i do it will even fight for. the difference is that the muslim brothers have an ideology the military have privilege. and that's quite a different matter and. great deal of the egyptian economy and they're accustomed to command and as i say they're very tough minded people and you don't want to meddle with them because if they have to they were using extreme methods you know

nasa did in the end did. barack was none too kind and that's what will happen there will be another one in succession if the muslim brothers try anything like that it's expected by other arabs that they will i mean the people of. hamas rule dancing in the streets expecting exactly what we're talking about and they think this means violence and they're very happy about that. poor people. the storm over their heads if what they want should ever god forbid go back to you in tel aviv what what is the nature of democracy now i mean are people going to give up on it i mean if the military isn't going to let people elect people into power if they voted for what's the use of it well again i have to agree with david that what we're seeing in egypt is not democracy because democracy is not simply well i mean how. do you think that you think through tomorrow when this was legitimate the parliament was legitimate was an election and legitimate. i believe that it

was i think it was an honest reflection of the will of the egyptian people but my point is that real democracy is based on state institutions civil institutions and a whole host of cultural norms they are currently simply do not exist in egypt so now is the military for them or can the people say it least let us have our representatives and then do everything you just said why does it have to be reverse because that's what it sounds like. well the military again has no interest in seeing any of its power relinquished but it realizes that it has to make some gestures towards the opposition otherwise it's going to end up with a second revolt on its hands so it's conceded some territory it's allowed the muslim brotherhood candidate. to come into power and again they're fighting a losing battle in my view against time because the muslim brotherhood have the masses on their side they have the ability to mobilize the street and the muslim

brotherhood again i don't think that they're huge fans of democracy i think that they're using democracy as a means to get to power in a very clever way i don't think that they would want to individuate is a claim for winning elections what so clever about that it's very straightforward isn't it a presidential election parliamentary election. now in a country like egypt. going the reason i think that the muslim brotherhood acted in a way that was very long term strategically long term clever fashion is because they built up the basis of supports years and years ago decades ago because they knew that one day the current system of government would fall they had the foresight now i think that this is actually very dangerous i'm not applauding the muslim brotherhood i'm very concerned about the fact that this is an islamist organization which has come to realize that political play and building of bases of

electoral support are the best way to get into power the question now is what will they do once they get that power and that is the question we in israel are worried about and watching very closely david what do you think how do you think you will feel about democracy now if they can't you know if elections are just an old or rigged it's been suggested on this program that was rigged go ahead. well elections are very easy to fix i mean look at iran. look at syria it's not their go to fix elections and i'm sorry to say that elections in egypt under the british were fixed really when you're very good in the policeman you how you voted when you came out of the tent the policeman was there to deal with you i am never going to jump in here gentlemen i'm going to go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on egypt today. and. i want.

you to.

welcome back to our viewers about remind you we're talking about the state of egypt's democracy. and. go back to tel aviv i mean do you think the the the generals and in cairo are looking at the turkish model at least a few decades ago of creating a secular state and having the military in control i mean we've seen this before didn't work out always very well but you think that's what there are. i think that the egyptian generals are actually fearful that something much worse could happen in egypt like algeria. cross the muslim do you think like. like something between

algeria and iran again we're in uncharted territory they don't know but one thing is for sure they don't want to know they're very frightened of the idea of the muslim brotherhood running the most influential and powerful state in the arab world they don't know how the muslim brotherhood would run the economy they don't know how the muslim brotherhood would handle relations with israel and other countries in the region and of course they also have their own vested interests which have been mentioned fairly in this program but i also think that they're very frightened by the possibility of the muslim brotherhood and islamist organization with a. very problematic. running such a vast and important country in the middle east i think that they're scared of the results of that. stay with you i mean ok granted they're afraid but the more they're denied legitimate power the more they should be afraid you see what i mean i mean if it comes push comes to shove i mean these guys you know they're either fly out or they'll be plenty of light posts in cairo i mean it's

a lose lose situation for the military arsenal over. well why don't you negotiate with these guys i mean the majority of the people of the egyptians support them ok why don't you go shake with them in good faith. let me put it. you know if you can answer that and then we're going to david go ahead. again i think that the military sees this is a zero sum game and it's partly because mubarak himself set up a situation in which is either him or the islamists that's kind of a situation that he himself helped build and now that he's gone the military is playing by that same zero sum game ok david it's a very smart move because it didn't work it doesn't work for dictators very well. doesn't does what what's happening i think is that nine hundred seventy nine was a really important date in history the downfall of the shah and the arrival of. iran changed the whole picture and we have is on the move now and it is spreading

from country to country and the example of turkey which you mentioned is crucial to erdogan has managed to get the army out of politics with the blessing of the european union who had no idea what they were doing the result is we have three hundred generals and admirals in bars awaiting trial and remove the arena the muslim brothers in my opinion can't do that in egypt and what will actually happen is that this islamics fervor which is spreading everywhere will take over from turkey and then from saudi arabia probably jordan and egypt will fit into that picture i guess that egypt will discover that the military are going to be a counter-revolutionary force and that they will stop the spread of islam happening and here everything depends on. region in islamic countries i mean does that make

any sense really. well that's what they think they're doing and that is why when this happened iran if you if you recall made advances to the muslim brothers to egypt and said we're in this together we're islam together the army then backed away from that because they realize that that is actually a death sentence for them. the people think that bad things are going to happen seems to me to be quite clear from the departure from the country of. former mubarak people who actually don't want to be there when the test of strength takes place but the test of strength essentially is to see how far and how strong the islamic fervor of the of the present moment is going to be yet it seems to me the muslim brotherhood is. going to say looks like they're in a trap at least short term but go ahead jump in. well that's exactly what i was going to say the muslim brotherhood are now going to have to make

a decision they're going to have to choose between their ideology and political realist and that's the choice they face there is not what do you mean it is you know what do you think you're going to do because the power is a nice thing to have you everyone in the program has already agreed they've waited a long time for this moment they want to keep it don't they at least some of it. i don't know what they're going to. go ahead. i know what they've said that they will do it there was an elections rally for muhammad will say about a month and a half before he was elected and in that rally which was attended by morsi he sat on a stage a cleric took the microphone and there were thousands of people sending this rally now the things that this cleric said included we are all hamas we are all martyrs we will all we all want to die as martyrs wipe banish the sleep from the eyes of the jews and we don't want. mecca as the capital we want jerusalem as the capital

we're going to conquer jerusalem these are the things that were said in the presence of mohamed morsi and he said on stage and nodded he was happy with those messages now once again now the muslim brotherhood are beginning to seize power step by step they are filling their first goal which is to take power does that mean that they're going to launch war i don't think so not that i'm going to if i'm going to do when i mean there are a lot of people say things during campaigns to get to get people to vote for him ok campaign rhetoric and being in power often are very two different things almost always different things david you want to jump in. well these are very shrewd people where we're not dealing with children they have a long experience of conspiracy and violence and dealing and i guess that what is happening behind the scenes which we can't see is the sort of thing that's happening in iraq whereby a big mercedes benz is driving to somebody's house to see what kind of deal can be cut with that person and if they are able to they would choose to cut

a deal and i expect that that is what will happen the army will give enough slack to the muslim brothers for the muslim brothers to say you see we're on our way and the muslim brothers will hold their horses and now for the army to say well we've got stability we can't have sharia law in egypt we can't have alcohol banned the bikini is bad tourism stop the country can't feed itself and if the muslim brother program were to be installed in full egypt would go through a calamity it wouldn't be able to pay for its way it wouldn't be able to feed itself and there would be a real humanitarian disaster it's the world's largest importer of wheat and of course the united states sells that wheat if the united states decided that for one reason or another wasn't going to sell that wheat well the egyptians would be in very dire circumstances so there's no leeway really for gambling it's today i think there is a huge i guess i think there's

a big gamble here if i could stay with you david i mean give the muslim brotherhood the presidency because economically in crisis unemployment is high we've talked about imports i mean wow what a wonderful position to be in when the country is in crisis and they looked about the brother muslim brotherhood they can't do it ok and we have to have a new election and what i'm trying to say is you give you give them a very bad situation i vy my republican after the first world war i mean ok give it to the socialists ok they weren't allowed to rule and see what happened what i'm saying is it is it's a planned disaster it's a planned failure. well it may be it may be i mean all the egyptians are. completely hostile to the mood and others in the been saying for a long time since i've been going to egypt that they would one day take power and godspell the country when that happened i don't know any egyptian who talks otherwise but the muslim brothers i don't believe are willing to plunge the country into some kind of. torment because they'll lose to everybody is the lose and i

would guess that actually are extremely practical and people and they're not really given to casting your throat. and i think they probably will manage in the end to come to some sort of deal about the constitution that's being written which will give the muslim brothers at least cover. the muslim brothers will be able to accept that and then we'll see what the next development is going to be probably to do with the shia sunni split and the attitude taken by saudi arabia and whether the money's coming of what the americans are doing and all the other great big factors ok back to you in tel aviv what is this bode for the the arab spring is it over is the arab awakening over i mean again i think you know when you look at other young people in the region they see that you know the election process you can elect people that you actually believe in and support and then a government can or a military can just say no we'll try to get more throw the dice again because you

voted the wrong way what kind of precedent does that set for the region and young people looking for having democratic aspirations. well first of all i think that we have to note that the arab spring when it first occurred was led by democratically minded liberal young technology savvy people and those are not the people rising to power in egypt now and again we've seen that model before the same thing happened in iran unfortunately in one thousand seventy nine the people who first were most against the shah and had the courage to stand up to him were not the people who have actually took power so again we have to note that within the anti status quo movement there is this split between the people leading the revolution and then the people riding the wave to take power that's one thing and second of all. your referral to the military refusal to give up power what that means is that there is no such thing as a smooth revolution

a smooth transfer it's obvious that the old regime the old guard is always going to try and pull every trick in the book to try and hang on to power and that you are saying i'm going to i mean they're on the record they're on the record saying when we do this thing we'll do this once you guys do this we'll do this and they keep breaking their word how much longer can people believe them if they believe them at all now go ahead. i think that the more they break their word they're more likely it is that we will see civil disorder in places like cairo and alexandria mass disorder rioting the more the military pull on this rope the more they're going to ensure that the muslim brotherhood will mobilize the masses against the muslim brotherhood know this and that is why they're comfortable they're taking their time and they are negotiating with the military from across position of increasing power and the military again is fighting a losing battle eventually it is going to lose this battle i don't know when but i'm confident it will happen david i'll give you the last ten seconds we're going

to go ahead. i was never very enamored with this arab spring thing but what it really came from was despair that the people of very unhappy they know that they're the victims of injustice that there are going to germany here looks like the injustice is more continual thank you very much many thanks my guest today in london and in tel aviv and thanks or viewers for watching us here are see you next time remember cross talk rules. and if you. still. want.

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