we don't come. here with our t. line from moscow our top stories washington pledges more support for syrian rebels but the russian foreign minister says that by justifying blast in damascus the us but in doing so are. the man who wants to put the chilean dictator behind bars could soon be working to keep julian assange out of them this weekend saturday still holed up inside the dorian embassy. and european carmakers have a difficult road ahead sales plummet across the continent leading to thousands of painful layoffs in france the symbol of the industry peugeot is planning to close one of its forces over eight thousand people. up next here on ars he is

cross talk with peter the bell and the syrian crisis take center stage in today's edition. if you. still. want to. follow in welcome to cross knock you down is end game inside for the assad regime with the u.s. in a regional ally seeking to subvert diplomacy and the warning from damascus they will use chemical weapons if faced with foreign intervention it would appear the syrian civil war is that it chipping. in. still. to cross talk serious possible endgame i'm joined by carl shohreh in london he's a middle east blogger in chicago we have steven lemon he is

a blogger and author and in los angeles we cross to ravi said he is a policy analyst and an ambassador for the national iranian american council all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want karl let me go to you first where do we go from here damascus says it has chemical weapons and the u.s. and its regional allies have no interest in diplomacy anymore where do we go. i think. let's clarify one thing that all this talk about tipping point and game i think is very exaggerated it all started with the explosion last week that killed several of like a former and current defense minister and security leaders and now is basically a very high quality or peroration though is really a dramatic operation but in terms of the real dynamics on the ground in syria they're not going to shift very much and in fact what we have seen this is sort of given an impetus to the syrian regime to try to retreat take damascus so i

predict that this balance of kind of burn floor of this syrian uprising will continue there is no substantive kind of qualitative or quantitative change in the balance of power but it seems that there's sort of this imagined momentum and the area wakened interest of the west now that the chemical weapons are mentioned is sort of might propel this external dynamic to change which we need to focus on because it's not directly linked to what's happening on the ground in syria i mean it's been going on for sixteen months why all of a sudden now the talk of chemical weapons become such a priority and securing them this is the interesting angle we need to look if i can to stay with you you're saying the level a lebanese situation the fifteen year civil war. not necessarily that long but i know a man not in length would be in the type of car yet. in terms of the type of conflict unfortunately and i have to clarify i'm with the spear ations for freedom

of the syrian people but what i have warned against from the beginning is if there's no clear political leadership with a clear political message ultimately another dynamic will take over which is the sectarian dynamic and i've long said sort of this is not deterministic this is not bound to happen it's not fertile estate but where is the politics why our people are reluctant to join up from other communities in syria with this uprising and that political failure means that the sectarian dynamic will get enhanced and it is very ungentlemanly like i know if i go to you in los angeles it's a very interesting thing we just heard from karl i mean is are of a political agenda the can coalesce the people in syria. well i think. we can say the month of july was a turning point. since the uprising started sixteen months ago you see the more

improved. performance and and coordination and capability and capabilities by the by the local opposition groups and and and the rebels in syria i think they're they're trying to to to concentrate on damascus and aleppo to send a message to the syrian people to call is the syrian people that there is is more while noble the need for a project and there is you cannot hold the stability as you know the syrian regime they they have been citing the calmness in damascus repeatedly to strengthen their argument that the they they enjoy support in syria but i think it's now it's very hard for them to sustain that argument and you see now a tactical shift in the in the strategies that the rebel are using and in order to to to to as you mentioned to call is the syrian people and to to convince the silent to middle class spatially and we ask. different fick carrion communities can

get along because these radical sunni is coming out of saudi arabia we've seen this before haven't we afghanistan. well i think you're right i mean if the friend players strive to take sides with different parties in syria and to try to to to secure their own national interests you might see what you mentioned it's like this civil war in lebanon or or iraq or or afghanistan but i think. probably you also would see as the violence increases in syria as more people being can probably you see a friend saying when if i don't go home i can't get there if if i can go to you i mean the outline forces that are involved in the civil war in there are numerous here do they have or are they all on the same page or we just looking at maybe a spanish civil war we've already talked about lebanon how about spain in the one

nine hundred thirty s. . oh peter let me say categorically what's going on in syria i've written volumes of what's going on here at times i rate every single day well what's going on this morning before i came to the studio i drafted a new article for tomorrow and my title is syria threatens no one syria is a nonbelligerent country what's going on is not an uprising it's not a revolution it's not a civil war the i.c.r.c. was paid eight million dollars by washington to lie to lie is if there lie change international law international law did not change and it's very clear in categorical it says no nation may interfere in the internal affairs of another except in self-defense syria attacked no one seriously right and no

one doesn't threaten its neighbors doesn't threaten israel doesn't threaten the west what's going on in syria since last since winter two thousand and eleven is weston weston generated violence for one purpose washington planned this years ago general wesley clark former nato commander wrote about it in his book winning modern wars he visited the pentagon right around the nine eleven period and he was told by high officials in the pentagon that washington planned regime change in about half a dozen regional countries afghanistan of course iraq libya syria ok ok let me go to karl and one in here and stephen just mentioned all those countries as ever as it ever worked out very well. can i just say something and oh

i mean i think stephen is sort of getting himself a bit more than a bit confused and receiving that amongst a lot of western anti imperialist is this desire to oppose western intervention is kind of pushing them in the direction of kind of distorting if you like what's happening on the ground or a distorted understanding of what's happening in the ground i think also the other problem is this appearance that the us has any clear sense of purpose or clarity in the middle east has been completely shattered and that's even more destructive because the united states now in the middle east because it doesn't have a clear sense of purpose is just very detrimental to stability and this is what we need to focus on so unfortunately i mean far from the u.s. having a clear plan about how they react to the course of events it's sort of persisting in this sustained level of meddling that has not a sense of purpose and allowing its allies to do all sorts of things but it doesn't have a clear idea which is more devastating that is likely to push all these conflicts

around the middle east into kind of them further kind of sustained period of time because the u.s. simply doesn't seem to be clear about how it establishes stability how it astonishes or their how even brought us its going and why should it why should it be in the position to do that karl. well this is this is kind of a historical analogy because i think we have to shift in our understanding of kind of imperialism it was clear in the past and actually it made our job easier because it was clear it was clear for us to now there's a level of incompetence and lack of foresight in washington that's actually reflecting very badly on this situation on the ground so you talk about how they exited from here are cleaving the country in a complete shambles and not taking responsibility for the way they did before and inviting iran and syria to come into iraq and allow the new cabinet to be formed and all that kind of thing only for them a year later to sort of turn against syria and suddenly becomes the pariah states

there's no sense of consistency and this is what we need to pay attention and i think a lot of people are serious threats go to los angeles magid you want to jump in there go ahead. if i can just add to what your guest said earlier that syria is not a danger to any body and it's not a revolution i just want to see some facts that started with a localized movement in daraa with some children first writing graffiti on the wall and then being tortured and in order family went to police station they told them that they go and make new children for these ones and i. see why is there an injury or why i don't know western intervention into bryant bahrain then. well i think syria is a strategic an important qatif any trouble the rain is on syria would be reverberate across the region i think we can't just go inside a country and change it the head of states and well i should say you are something

doing. that person the us has been doing that for at least a decade if not longer well. well i just want to point person i mean i. i mean you can make an argument if syria's a danger to our country but the definitely is danger for its own people i personally be in that country i know the political suppression in that country and what the people are going through now and how can can if i can ask your guest how can he explain the thousands of syrian people who are being killed their life being sacrificed how can he say to them that this is not. in our pricing and this is all like what the syrian regime maintains the line this is all conspirators and western backed terrorist cleaving you want to jump in there before we go to the break or absolutely. it absolutely is western back in america karl america has a very clear purpose it what it's doing it again this was planned many many years

ago the purpose is regime change america tolerates no independent regimes all of the countries that america goes to war against in the ones it plans to go to war against are independent governments that are not one sided or even i haven't been to many here gentlemen we're going to go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on syria stay our.

secret laboratory in the kirby was able to build the world's most sophisticated robot which fortunately doesn't give a darn about anything tombs mission to teach creation why it should care about humans in the world this is why you should care only. and you can see. the. live. welcome back to cross talk here a little jumanji we're talking about the syrian civil war. in.

syria. to go back to you karl in london many are in western media and politicians are talking about an end game in syria what is that and i mean assad goes in every it happened everyone lives happily ever after ever after i mean what is the end mean. well that's the real problem is the question i mean in my next column writing is what is an endgame in syria how do you define that because they're making mistaken analogies with places like egypt and tunisia where you can just sideline the president and then kind of the system can continue in different way in syria it's a radically different situation if bashar assad leaves tomorrow another person will step in there is a much wider circle that has this power interests so ultimately even if you're talking about the higher echelons of the regime actually leaving you're going to have to i arrive at a political kind of solution that allows that transition to happen and laws like

the ilo a community the christian minorities all of these people are not to feel threatened by whatever is coming so that the idea that we keep the pressure and then one day bashar al assad will just leave that's not going to happen in syria there's a much more different power structure in there and what we really need to look at is what is the political solution and here is the failure of what has become the de facto representative political representative of the syrian uprising the syrian national council which is an utter failure it doesn't have any command of any power on the ground doesn't have any political authority and doesn't have any imagination to come up with a solution or even offer any kind of transitional plan so even if we're talking about military successes on the ground for the uprising that's actually even more dangerous in absence of a form of political control that knows what it's a mean for so i fear that's kind of

a very big picture and this talk of an end game is a bit of a hyper at the moment with that political climate if i go to you in los angeles of his side were to suddenly go would you worry about a bloodbath ethnic cleansing well i think we need a peaceful. transition will not only seems that system all our civil war and i don't usually get a peaceful transition we're in a civil war. well i think all i think is going to happen for weeks and months to come i think of for i think the basic stalemate that we're witnessing now it's going to continue i think the leader of the opposition or the local opposition groups the rebels or the government can we in this battle those international stayman and i think this will. continue for the months to come and many probably more young people will become radicalized they will see their relatives being killed and they may take more guns and to defend themselves and you would see also . the government using more force to call these billion so i think the this remains

to be seen how the transition is going to war or much if i can say with you in los angeles this is bode well for a democratic future well i think if if if i said i think if he now allows a more as i mentioned the peaceful transition you might see i mean you might see different groups coming together and you know the now the the sick a lot of the muslim brotherhood and all different groups has to come together and prove it and create a pluralistic society but i don't see that to be happening soon ok stephen if i can go to you it's very interesting the assad regime said they have chemical weapons do you think that's going to make the west hesitate a little bit nato because we keep hearing something you don't which brought up the subject. well this is all hi peter this is hype and the west brought up the subject of chemical weapons a lot of countries have chemical weapons i deploy them biological weapons nuclear

weapons there is no country would with great greater i stole of weapons of mass destruction in the region than israel it's well known it's acknowledge they have a huge stockpile of nuclear weapons delivery systems that can send them far distant from is a real they have chemical weapons and they use them peter they have used them in lebanon if used biological weapons they used them against the palestinians in gaza in cast lead and doctors have treated the injured in the dead and they've seen injuries they never saw before from the weapons that israel uses and israel tests new weapons in this war as where is the condemnation of israel where is the condemnation where is the condemnation of the occupation. it's a very distorted picture and how this how this ends i have no idea but it could end

if washington called off its dogs but you know once you unleash them it's not so simple and i must tell you i just learned about this and i don't know very much about it and i conned i consubstantial hate it but i've heard stories that these so-called rebels that are being enlisted from regional countries they mostly coming in from outside not inside they're being told that they're going into syria to fight israeli forces not syrian forces can you imagine that why would one arab want to go to war with another arab but you tell them that israel is is got its army in syria and these people think they're going on a mission to liberate syria from israel policy that all of our own israel has been mentioned here we hear the israeli government is prepared to intervene in syria what do you think about that. well i think again you look at israel today and it's

kind of a similar symptoms to my happening with the u.s. but much more exaggerated in that it can only see the world through this very paranoid security obsessed perspective and it was quite interesting that when they asked. barak and sharon perry is about this your article possibility of some syrian refugees escaping to israel and they said absolutely not we're not going to receive them which is a kind of a very telling situation they've been selling us all this empty talk for months about how sympathetic to the syrian people they are of course it's empty rhetoric and now they're sort of found the hook them and the american that there's a hook to the american crisis and this is why is they we have to be very attentive to this level of meddling that's kind of completely irrational almost once they found the security hook you know the same story of w m d that we heard with saddam hussein before they're not deterred suddenly they're sort of interested there's there's an angle in it for us and it's done out of complete by our neuer so i think for both countries but particularly for the states because it's the one that drives

the policies i disagree completely with stephen they they didn't and leash this power in fact there's lots of debate in washington now and lots of reluctance to supply weapons because they know it might end up in the hands of al qaida but at the same time this level of persistent meddling and allowing there are allies to meddle. consistently and kind of fueling the fire in syria is very very destructive and i think this component of the chemical weapons is only going to mother the picture the big picture now is the syrian people should be allowed to decide their fate for themselves we don't have direct military intervention but we have all sorts of destructive foreign meddling that needs to stop and syria shouldn't be treated as a kind of a regional international playground for all these players to settle their scores to you in los angeles the chemical weapons you can that could be a hook for the u.s. in israel to strike syria. well let me say i think we are missing the point by focusing wastes shifting the conversation more on israel and the united

states i think if they wanted to to to to change the regime in syria and if the i mean you would say you would think that that would be the best scenario for them just to change a regime in syria because then they will separate syria from iran and there would weaken iran in their region to the sooner the closest ally in iran but they haven't done so and they for the sixteen months and they tried in my in my judgment they try to to to to wait for international consensus and they haven't to use really any unilateral or or aggressive methods and i think we should more focus on what is going in syria and here is the regional allies like saudi arabia and qatar they're the surrogates for the u.s. know all i think every country in the region wants to secure its own national interests you have iran's is saudi arabia there is the shia sunni confrontation there is the influences of iran in their region and there is hezbollah the all

these. intricate relationship by i think play a role but. i don't think it's it's the way you characterize it that they are some sort of. some sort of a playing in the hand of the united states or russia or saudi or israel directory. carol in london you want to jump in go ahead yeah because i think that's a very important angle i think since the beginning of from tunisia and egypt the beginning of the arab uprising we've seen that saudi arabia and qatar have actually kind of broken free from this american region or there are so to speak which has completely collapsed and we can see very clearly the the declining u.s. influence over here and the lack of clarity about how to restore it which is kind of bridging a this competition between qatar and saudi arabia and again both of those countries kind of meddling more aggressively and affairs of other countries i mean just mention the example of bahrain where saudi arabia sends out abs and it troops over

there without any western condemnation and that's a very clear example of the type of activity that we're seeing and that's again contributing to this further instability because you don't even have that sort of american common factor they used to orchestrate regional policy you have independent competing powers now in even you know between saudi arabia and qatar which is very very destabilizing for the region ok stephen if i go to you fundamentally. jump in i fundamentally disagree with it qatar and saudi arabia are working closely with western countries saudi arabia has a deep pockets are doing a lot of funding guitar is got a lot of money as well but but they are actively working with britain with washington with france israel is involved jordan is involved they have broken away . their partners in this in a prize can i bring in one very important thing to talk about transition in syria

does anybody remember that i think around march there was a new constitution written for the syrian people it was presented in a national referendum and syrians overwhelmingly voted to pass their constitution i read it i wrote about it not perfect but but really a wonderful constitution a democratic constitution. and in may syria had its first ever free open and fair internationally monnet is a parliamentary election it shame some of the ones that go on in the west and again i mean this was a wonderful achievement transition on that note here gentlemen sam interesting discussion there but we have run out of time many many thanks today to my guests in london chicago and in los angeles and thanks to our viewers for watching us here see you next time and remember prosperity. can soon.

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