to cross-talk the syrian inferno i'm joined by flynt leverett in washington he's a professor of international relations at penn state university in new york we have meyer javedanfar he is a middle east analyst and lecturer at the interdisciplinary center in herts libya and in beirut we crossed and i am salam he is an associate professor and co-founder of the faculty of international affairs and diplomacy at notre dame university lebannon all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage it there is talk of some kind of ceasefire going on among the stakeholders in the region around syria including in syria what are your feelings as a negotiated end to this conflict still possible because looks like a lot of people are digging their heels in and a lot of people the rebels do not want to talk so where do you think we stand right now about a peaceful negotiation. well we're not in a good place but i think that a negotiated political settlement remains the only way out of the mess.

obviously bastardry he mean his role as the u.n. and arab league envoy is trying to get traction with the process use a ceasefire for a dollar to jump start that. iran for its part has supported the plan the syrian government has expressed its willingness to to cooperate and something of a shift in previous policy turkey is now saying it would support this initiative it really remains to be seen whether other players not just players in the syrian opposition but whether other regional players whether the gulf arab states this would be prepared to support this and use their influence with opposition groups will the united states support this this would require a significant change in direction for the united states for the gulf arab states to support this kind of initiative but it is really the only way out. what do you

think about that i mean we've heard about you know negotiations before and they've always fallen apart so how realistic is it this time. first of all war in syria is a primarily western nato war on syria it is not the primarily a civil war it is a part of clear and tangentially a civil war which was used and exploited by west out of power and by nato ally turkey to syria and to western policy to bring down is our side regime so what on syria is drive by is a west to control is through syria and our board using turkey is a new islamist regime in turkey the new islamist regime in egypt in libya as well as in tunisia along with already established broad regime is in the gulf and in monaco or in jordan this new alliance aims at the bringing down the last.

out of nationalist the arab world after saddam hussein was brought down and cut off he was brought down so really it is a war over who controls the middle east if the nato and its allies when that are countries of the middle east will fall under western nato control for a big a distro come and if syria is able to resist this lot there's a blood drive on it that will be a setback for him a thaw and that i've been lying. in new york i had you jump in we have very different points of view. i have to partially disagree with flint and. there are undoubtedly foreign forces at play here what he sees the continuation of the cold war in the middle east between iran and saudi arabia between sunni and shiite forces absolutely but i disagree with the point of view that this is just the foreign power struggle no it's not assad regime for many years as

a presence on people there's been distinct irruption in that country where many people around in the countryside have been marginalized they have been massive abuses of human rights. so over the years and the syrian people have basically been ruled by the barrel by the gun in that country and what we see is the backlash of many years of oppressive policies by the assad regime so yes there are foreign players in this conflict but let's not forget the syrian people their life was not paradise an integration or form. of their conflagration up a very good point what about the people because it looks like the proxies are not thinking about the people they're thinking about the other proxies openly other proxies. yeah you know i think that i think i'm probably somewhere between between myer and i am on this i think that there is a genuine popular base for the opposition in syria there are indigenous

factors that contribute to this conflict certainly but i also think that the syrian government the government retains the support of probably a narrow majority of the syrian population you know at least half of the syrian population i think still supports the government that's why i say i don't think there's really a military solution to this i've not that confident that the government can really win militarily particularly as long as the opposition is supported by outside players but i also don't think there's a way for the opposition to win that's why i come back to my basic point that the only way out of this is a negotiated political process the problem so far has been that there are players the united states the gulf arabs the turks that have insisted up to this

point that any political process not just have preconditions but you might call pre results that departure had to be stipulated at the get go and for the united states there is further concern that they have never wanted to have iran involved in a regional process or a contact group on syria that's just not a serious diplomatic position if you really want a political settlement that's why i come back to the point that if we're going to have a little goes a little late it is going to requires some significant shifts in turkish and u.s. and gulf arab policies if you're in new york. jumping. i think peter peter flint is being a little bit too kind on the iranian government here in regards to their impact on the conflict that we see that's going on the iranian regime had recently in september had told some talks with members of the opposition but they always insist

that the opposition has to accept that the bashar assad stays in power this is what these lamas said after they met with the legations from the reigning government when they travel to tehran. there have been talks but again the iranian government is also one of the causes of this come conflict we see that they are supporting the assad regime financially we see that the iranian regime itself numbers of the quds force the deputy head was saying that they are assisting the assad regime and the iranian regime has always insisted that assad stays no i think this is something that has to be agreed between the syrian parties but one thing's for sure flynt assad cannot stay after the massive abuses of human rights in his own country after you know there's a recent human rights report that says twenty eight hour years in syria have disappeared what can what chance is there for us to stay we all want to negotiate a settlement after this and i think this is for the syrian people to decide ok general we told really running. from you i think in beirut which is going on let's

say assad did leave what difference would it make there are still people there that are stuck in the middle of a sectarian war. first of four we will be do you are doing our self and fooling i water. if we say a war on syria is a war on human rights and on democracy which countries in the middle east which are always things i wars on syria or support things i want on syria as a god of oil companies the royalists companies that headed to thirty system in those countries as a ploy to get your my rights as i thought of supporting human rights and c.b.s. no this is not the questions i question is a struggle for power is a struggle over resources of that if you don't understand the little control that is run through the last bastion which it is that has this things us at them without control which is the syrian regime the syrian regime is not probably the idea is

that she him that is implementing the human rights on syria we are not claiming that but the city under g m is on human rights and civil liberties and that i had some of my in order these has about that of fart about that and i call it the most of the energy moves of a board that all your listeners james woods are claiming to support democracy in syria this is one hundred seventy years i want to join you go ahead in new york to jump in please do so sorry now that i agree with your point that i don't i don't think for a moment that the saudi royal family or the qataris are out of frame hold of human rights you know they are not they're not the leaders absolutely but i think it's inaccurate to say that all countries will support our in our undemocratic look at turkey turkey is a very democratic country look at egypt egypt has recently had a revolution and it's been my friend and west says let democracy in turkey let's take the democracy internally does my thing if it does turkey jerky is a democracy like good adam a practical action erdogan won fair and square. and i'd like to solve the

minorities and try to keep i've been right i've built into what what is that what the where i was i'd. does and thirty's the human rights of the court was a political right as a southern i was started as fifty fifty years later you don't really know if you are you going to the break i want to go to flint jam before we go to the break democracies kind of dropped off the agenda here when we look at syria has an it really i don't know the let me know when you're really on the agenda ok i agree good. keep going i don't think it's ever really seriously been on the agenda i think that you know i think that now you made a very very good point at the outset by saying particularly for the united states. the united states jumped on this situation much as it jumped on the situation in libya because after the loss of mubarak in egypt the obama administration. telling

the american way where is it just going to knock your comparison when finished. it is so you go to great rationale it's the same basic it's the same basic rationale the united states the obama administration was looking for places where it could appear to be on quote unquote the right side of history and take the arab awakening wait a minute i didn't hear gentlemen i'm sorry we have to go to a break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on syria stay with our. mission three cretaceous three runs for chargers three. major ones

three. three stooges three. modes three brought us closer to c.d.o. for your media project c.e.o. don carty dot com. what's the strangest attempt to the truth take. the u.s. president trying to overthrow the foreign country's gulf but his strategic game. and america recognized its defeat. questioning if cuba managed to cope with its victory all don't. forget odd. i leave you think you are you go but the rajab either live near the cuban missile crisis games and reality t.v. . gold fever.

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if. i shall be so much frightened. about somebody from silence to question. his claims totty don't come. plenty. plenty. plenty. plenty to say good. luck to you to. come up. welcome back across town peter lawwell to remind you we're talking about the syrian civil war. slum to. see the

plug. my only go back to new york here there was a bit of a blow out there about what's the nature of democracy in this conflict here and you disagreed fine so go ahead you can finish up your point. i think i think this this conflict is also about democracy i think there are syrian people who are fighting for their right to vote in their own country and not to live under a one party system i also disagree with flint and the things that he says that this is the same as what america did in libya you can compare american involvement in libya which involved using fighter bomber jets and nato to what is happening in syria and i think america's actually taking the right choice by backing what is happening in syria and in terms of iran well the arab spring has been a disaster from the beginning for iran we saw what happened of the tehran on the line moving morsi went in there and basically backed the syrian people against the iranian regime's point of view and this is just going to cause this current trend of the arab spring being against iranian interests is going to continue and i don't

blame and i don't blame the rains for seeing it as something negative to go to be. what do you think i've. finally seen it or. go ahead and we're going to be a group. yeah i think the rayney is definitely see this differently and i think they actually are right on this point analytically they think the arab spring is working very very strongly in their favor in that any government in this region which becomes at all more representative of its people's attitudes beliefs preferences and so forth is automatically going to become less interested in strategic cooperation with the united states much less with supporting that it's going to become more open to an iranian message of resistance because i think that asada in contrast to mubarak. actually has

a popular base as i said i think he's got half of syrian society on his side you know what one should well that's not a little before i was interested in. this little going to a fair time let's go to beirut iran isn't. hurdle reforms time why not have one time on what i think there's a route go ahead. let me pick up where a friend has mentioned. a few months ago a qatari funded institute and took a public opinion survey in syria and this sort of showed that fifty four percent of the syrian people support of the assad regime that was in the early summers and i think now if there is an increasing and massive destruction of which is a striking syria and everywhere the popularity of that identity as we can see has risen from the fifty four percent the probably to sixty percent of people are afraid in

syria for the future after this whole bombardment and terrorist motions that i think all of us as a country this has then turns out that assad regime did and did not weakens assad regime so it is if you are to speak on a from the perspective of democracy and of popular support that assad regime doesn't have a popular support and this is a fact based on data and this that this sticks and as i've pointed out i am evil what i want i want for our friends my and my art is not mentioned in new york if the issue is democracy is that aisle in the middle east is one of the closest system in the world left to our better typed it it has cracked down on me on a movement in does which was elected democracy democratically and it was supported by the united states to destroy hamas and destroy it as a how can we talk about democracy we cannot have our cake and eat it too we cannot

use double standard when we talk about democracy we have to are to speak with a house a steady hand as far as logic is concerned this is a shoe my good friend this is not about democracy it is about a strategic control over that resources of the middle east this is a fundamental fact that leadings a major power. in the world to get involvement in this mission from the united states to britain to france and most recently to russia russia i think has and has taken a very good position in standing up against this western new imperial attempt to control the middle east and specifically the near east syria and so involved and i think the future is that assad will get out on from this conflict on top side we're on the same irish and there's you know a lot said there's a lot to deny or go ahead in new york. well just just to first of to start with

flints point with regards to iran i think the running regime is not interested in democracy in syria the reason being is that between all the people in the middle east they run and people know syria best because since the revolution hundreds of thousands of iranians of travel to syria they go and visit the shiite shrines the as it is a now been in damascus many of the government subsidize their holiday trips are for civil servants are there and people know syria very well and the iranian regime is scared because if the syrian regime falls that could set an example for the iranian people who could say look we also lived in a dictatorship and we also want to have freedom just like the syrian people i'm not saying that what is happening in syria both sides are playing fair i think they're all positions they're also concerned about the opposition forces some of them are jihadi some of them we you know are al qaeda related but the concept here remains that the people in syria are participating in this conflict i don't agree with now

i am saying that the regime is popular name how can the regime be popular when he uses cluster bombs against its own people which popular regime we should call it twenty five. neighborhoods and so country and what do you got israel can't just make one more point with regard to israel i disagreed with the israeli policy of not allowing hamas. when hamas won there was siding with p.l.o. and piro did not allow hamas to take over the government as they were supposed to after the elections i agree this was a mistake in policy for israel to back p.l.o. however after that i also blame hamas hamas is also responsible for not allowing democracy to flourish because they don't agree to new elections israel is not an apartheid state it doesn't make mistakes let's also not forget the palestinians i think in that conflict both sides have got their own share of blame then you go ahead reply go ahead. unfortunately has been the state the who has.

made infraction and violation of international law in some most number of cases since world war two was and it is i gave up on a c n n guys out as a west bank or. was it would have been a create the jews of the matter is what is seen as out of lebanon or in other parts of that aboard this is not the issue and it was ok here it is you can laws rules all right i want to i want to stay with syria wrote i want to stay with syria flint if i go back to you it looks more and more like a six tarion more do we should we start saying sectarian war instead of civil war because when we add all the proxies in its carrion all the way down the line. i think that the sectarian card has basically been used by the opposition element and by some of its. sternal supporters

as a way of mobilizing support against this so supposedly infidel regime in damascus i think that i mean certainly the assad government draws a lot of its support from religious minorities in syria but that's not the only base of support that it has and i think that did extend this conflict is becoming sectarian eyes that's being done by elements on on the opposition side and it's not a very positive positive trend i think in terms of the comparison of the way the u.s. is dealing with libya the way the u.s. is dealing with with syria obviously the united states is not intervened directly militarily yet in syria but i think that the fact that in contrast to libya that russia and china have been willing to veto three security council resolutions which

would have legitimacy that sort of intervention by the united states is a really important factor here it's certainly not a guarantee that the united states won't at some point basically act even without a security council resolution the united states unfortunately has done that has done that before but i think that has been an important constraint on the united states in this in this situation and it's a slightly whoever wins the election here is going to have a strategic choice to make ok it's going to be a route go ahead if it is making a valid point. it is a position in which it has. made this conflict sectarian damascus five point five million people who live in damascus and around damascus the absolute majority of them are sunni and many of those sunni supporters that is jeem. war

as a city a city that is three million people alipore as a province five point five million people many in aleppo also support of the regime and they are sunni sectarian character of this conflict has been made by the opposition by hijacking of people on their idea. back to ground religious background or sectarian back around and killing them for no other reason than being a christian or to being underweight in the in very very ugly and barbados but on the journey here or almost out of time i want to give my year the last time the last word on the program could we see syria partitioned as one of the outcome. my i think the i think the fact that the syrian government is arming the kurdish rebels in northern syria on the border with turkey is creating a de facto state kurdish state in that part of the part of the country and if asada falls i think we're going to see the kurdish people probably declare independence

so i have some kind of a kurdish regional government like there is in northern iraq i think that's a very positive development to the world powers who drew up the maps of the sax pick a degree meant basically forgot the kurdish people and i think this is going to be a very positive development to see them at the stuff the many years of suffering and is communication having their own state ok gentlemen i wonder what the the neighborhood would say to that many thanks my guest today in new york washington and in beirut and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are to see you next time and remember russia. well for the. science technology innovation all the moves developments

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