will strike against tehran a newly released were court weighs the advance just and consequences of taking military action joining me now to talk more about this topic is dr alston long the associate professor of international public affairs at columbia university he's also the co-author of a new report titled weighing the benefits and costs of military action against iran thank you very much for joining me today thanks very much it's a pleasure to be here dr long a bipartisan group of national security experts are the authors and signatories of this extensive report according to your findings is iran's nuclear program currently a threat to the us president it's not a threat to united states iran's nuclear program is under our international atomic energy agency destruction of the work that they had previously done according to the u.s. intelligence community on nuclear weapons it's been suspended so at present iran's nuclear program is not

a major threat to united states the concern is that it could very rapidly become one how rapidly in less than a year according to some estimates another estimates more than a year a lot depends on whether you're talking about the production of the material the highly enriched uranium for a bomb or an actual deliverable weapon of deliverable weapon would take longer production of fissile material could you know within a few few months produce enough for for a bomb within a few months well within a few weeks americans will be heading to the polls to vote for a new u.s. president or keep the current one in the white house many believe that israel has seen this time as a window of opportunity to strike iran dragging the u.s. into a war is there still a threat that it would do so in the main remaining weeks i think the concern about a possible israeli strike was higher a few weeks ago. earlies are now dissolving. their parliament and calling for new

elections on january twenty second so this i think changes a lot of the previous calculation of people that thought the israeli government might act before the us elections i think now tend to believe wait until at least after us elections if not actually after the the new israeli elections now opinions vary but do you think iran has an intention to acquire a nuclear bomb i mean this is literally the sixty four thousand dollar question you know there's a pretty good read on what iran's capabilities in terms of uranium enrichment are the big question which i don't think anyone can give a highly confident answer to is does iran want what people refer to as a threshold capability in other words its ability to produce a nuclear weapon likely or do they want an actual deployed weapon according to the u.s. intelligence community and i think most other observers iran just hasn't made that decision in part because they don't need to and they want to get to that threshold capability before they make any decisions about whether to go to go farther than

that threshold because there's no point making that decision early in fact it might be detected by western intelligence and so you could tip your hand before you get to that threshold so i think that decision has been made you don't seem to be putting the threat level of iran's nuclear program as high as some u.s. officials the republican candidates for example mitt romney and his vice presidential candidate paul ryan have been in past weeks essentially saying that iran is a major grave threat are they exaggerating at all with their rhetoric i don't think there's a tremendous amount of exaggeration that iran is a threat generally i mean you know the united states and iran have had a pretty hostile relationship for three decades actually more than three decades now they have you know had problematic relations in the gulf they've had conflict via proxies in iraq so i think it's not wrong to say iran is a threat the question is. is whether its nuclear program is

a real threat to the united states at the present and it isn't at the present but the concern is as i said it could very quickly become a threat so let's go back to your report according to the findings an extended u.s. military strike on iran's nuclear facilities whether alone or in concert with israel could set back iran's nuclear program for four years but it still would not guarantee that iran would not eventual acquire a nuclear bomb why is that it's because the technology iran already has some pieces and parts they need to acquire from overseas but unless you can guarantee that you can kill off everyone in iran that has knowledge of these programs and their ability to produce these basic components such as aluminum rotors you can't guarantee that that the program can never be restarted so you can destroy what they have now but their ability to rebuild that even if you can make it take a very long time to rebuild that's what can't be destroyed what kind of long term

military commitment with the u.s. have to make to ensure that iran would never be able to build a nuclear bomb i mean it would be similar to what happened with iraq the only way to ensure a country does not acquire a nuclear weapon is to is to forcibly change the regime and go in on the ground occupy yes that's the that's the only way to one hundred percent be sure that the current iranian regime never acquires a nuclear weapon so we're talking about a ten year war. what they. potentially could be iran is a larger country than both iraq and afghanistan combined so if you're talking about a war that would certainly be on that scale where there would be ten times harder not quite as hard who knows but it would be a very substantial military commitment should the u.s. be concerned about iran's unconventional war capabilities i think the united states is definitely be concerned about iran's unconventional war capabilities by its nature its harder to sort of define what unconventional war capabilities are and you can count airplanes you can count missiles unconventional it's

a little harder to judge but iran has a robust capability for unconventional war they have special operations forces they have kind of services they have a variety of capabilities to conduct attacks without you know not in this sort of typical military way at the end of the day is this really just a problem for israel iran possible determination of acquiring nuclear weapons or is this a problem for the u.s. as well i think it's a problem for the entire world i mean certainly the you know the entire world has has asked iran to clarify its intentions and has taken steps i think it's a much bigger problem for israel than the united states if for no other reason than proximity in the size you know israel is a country of you know about the you know in terms of populations the size of new york city and geographically it's quite small it's quite close so i think it's a much bigger problem for israel than it is for the united states but that doesn't make it not a problem for the united states in the rest of the world how much would a war with iran cost the u.s.

economy it's very difficult to tell but you know our estimates that even a modest war would would hurt the u.s. economy in part because it would drive up oil prices even a modest in terms of duration spike in oil prices you know the u.s. recovery right now is quite fragile the world recovery is sort of stalled in places and making modest recovery in others so a big spike in oil prices even if it was only for a few weeks would certainly. damage the u.s. economy if it were a longer extended commitment and big disruption in oil then it would be much more also to the global economy to the global economy and then there's the actual dollar figure to conduct military operations right i mean flying planes dropping bombs these things are are not incredibly expensive but neither are they cheap so it would it would there would be a it would be a substantial costly thing so i want to ask you a question that politicians always reject to answer does israel have nuclear weapons capacity it's something that the israelis have been opaque on by design

throughout their their history i think most outside observers would say that the israelis do have a nuclear weapons capacity even if it's one that's never really been deployed or tested and as you mentioned benjamin netanyahu has dissolved the parliament in israel with new elections expected is in january february twenty second is what the how much do you think that will play into the israel running conflict i think i think this coming israeli elections will hinge heavily on on what to do about iran the netanyahu government will have some decisions to make they could be they could be very bold and take action as a caretaker government i think most observers don't think they will and in fact a lot of the campaign will be about what to do about the iranian nuclear program. so i think that's i think will be a huge issue in determining the future of israeli iranian relations so if israel has a stockpile of nuclear weapons as many have reported and iran has not even if you're on board to build one wouldn't that be somewhat of

a deterrence policy in place why would israel consider still striking iran the belief is you know if both sides have nuclear weapons no no no one side is going to be foolish enough to use them knowing they're going to face retaliation by the other side of the us soviet union the idea of mutually assured destruction i think the israelis are deeply uncomfortable with this because it doesn't take. hundreds of nuclear weapons to functionally destroy israel as i said israel's a very small country a handful of nuclear weapons maybe even only one nuclear weapon some people refer to israel as a one bomb country could do that the same damage it would require hundreds of nuclear weapons to do to a much larger country so i think their concern is why take any risk that maybe the current leadership in iran is completely rational but maybe a future one won't be why take any risk that there could be these kind of miscalculations in a confrontation so say there's an israeli iranian equivalent of a cuban missile crisis say over hezbollah or syria and instead of ending in a in

a sort of tense standoff that resolved peacefully as in the cuban missile crisis this one actually results in the exchange of nuclear weapons think the israeli attitude is you know we have maintained all along we will not be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons into the region we don't want anyone else to do so either because why take the risk you know when u.s. president barack obama was addressing the u.n. general assembly and he was speaking i think iran he said time for negotiations is not unlimited what do you think he meant by that i mean it's you think that there is some kind of deadline a date that. i don't think there's an exact date but i do think that patience for negotiations particularly after the last round over the summer is sort of wearing thin the iranians put forward a proposal allegedly some of the iranians deny it some don't it's kind of tough to tell sometimes what the iranians are actually saying but the proposal would have called for the lifting of most sanctions in exchange for

a suspension of many of the more worrisome activities of the iranian nuclear program and the president said look we you know this isn't this isn't serious we're not going to remove everything that gives us leverage in exchange for these minor concessions so i think the feeling is look we will give diplomacy all the time in the world if it's actually working but if it's just a way for the iranians to stall and by the way over the summer iran greatly increase the radio. putting centrifuges into one of its enrichment plants so i think that's the feeling it's not that there's a specific date but if it looks like all the iranians are doing is using negotiations as a way to sort of buy time think that's when the president will say look we've given diplomacy you know all the time in the world it hasn't worked here report indicated that a u.s. military strike against iran would motivate the country to build a bomb if that is the case doesn't this threatening rhetoric coming from u.s. and israeli officials also cause damage i think the idea is to calibrate the threat

and maybe the united states hasn't always done the best job but the idea is you know you apply all of these levers of persuasion sanctions the threat of military action to say look this isn't a good path to go down let's find another path but you're absolutely right that if you you know if you're trying to convince somebody to do something or else you're going to carry out a threat you don't want to believe in you're going to carry out the threat anyway right because why would you ever agree to anything if you think you're going to be attacked anyway so it's it can be tricky you're right to calibrate that rhetoric that you know if you do x. we will do y. but if you don't do x. we won't do well dr austin long thank you very much for speaking with r.t. thanks very much was a great pleasure i. get

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fish. by coal is often called the pearl of siberia a horn is said to be the pearl of by. it's all end of think forests. and vast stops. virtually undiscovered by tourists until some twenty years ago i was cornish quickly become a magnet for nature lovers and if you will see cars you're quite some way from civilization here accommodation on the island is very basic so you can forget about it the or even running water for most people a tent is the on the eruption but for those who come here it's exactly what they're looking for. in journey to buy coal can be unique a trip of a lifetime and the locals say once you've seen it they'll be coming back again and

again. the undersea stronghold of the supporters in libya faces an assault by barbie like . you look at one other country still where by and chaos they can peer out through the western backed up on. a wave of volunteers just love and on the human way to be powerful hard last night demonstrate including the top security official of the opposition calls for more rallies while the army is reportedly fired upon demonstrators. israeli troops intercept exultant down the international acts of the sounds humanitarian aid on board and stopping the latest attempts to reach the blockade to downplay its bonds. and russia's oil giant closer

to becoming the world's leading crude producer as details of a mega deal with a russian british joint venture are and apparently final lots. more news in fifteen minutes now it's time for sports with kate. thank you for joining me for the latest call this saturday and here are the headlines. leading the way angie fight back to grab a latest two one win at home to ten months apart because he thinks like a five points clear at the top of the russian premier league. and a battle in moscow caroline wozniacki wins a three set to reach the premier cup final the next place are the sam stars that for honor evanovich. and final push motor g.o.p. leader for the red zone breaks the track record to fly in pole for the malaysian

grove great and inch closer to the second world title just three races that. are first of all pole and one in star all these own gold deep into stoppage time help fight back from a goal down to win two on a time to ten runs spots ak to go five points clear at the top of the russian premier league and. produced a spectacular save. but midfielder didn't really let the no stupid spot top in front take minutes before half time but the yellow card either side of the interval for kilogram bought off the visitors with ten men missing a try we equalised good way through the second part box with a draw looking imminent and injury time free kick resulted in in surround the heading into a zone match to ensure angy one to one and we may be in six league games attack one hundred second straight to the. boat meanwhile it's optimism breeders burgo are defending champions need to taking on in form qubani in its milat while as little

post align your life so. money while in london sunday afternoon terry has kept his captaincy begins his core much banished chelsea have gone to tottenham for lunchtime london darby the spurs manager and regular spoiler space in his former club for the first time and. and it's the blues that are leading at halftime franks have got to take those eighteen minute volley ball a champions manchester city go to inform west brom with manager about someone cheney full of praise for the baggies working boss steve clarke. many going to be asked to dream because a. very good job and you know in this moment i think that was a bridge is the best team that played the best for the one and tomorrow so for us we would be a tougher game. for meanwhile the russian women's football team are just two games away from qualifying for their first major tournament in three is there in austria for the first leg of their play off on sunday with the went to going through to next year's european championships in sweden and which of our corporate caught up

with some of the players both on and off the pitch. you could could even you and i have been friends since childhood of a footballing careers have taken very similar parts so it was no surprise for they ended up as roommates but it might not be five star accommodation provides police on their minds ahead of such a big game but. we aren't nervous going into the game we are fully relaxed and ready to go out onto the field and get the victory that we need that is in the group stages who played against italy with who didn't put in a good performance and lost their game elsewhere in qualifying menage to be the mess noonan's very comfortably. we drew our last match against poland but the game against austria will be a real test but we must win we have been preparing very hard for this encounter yelena force about becoming a model before she decided to pursue a career in football however the twenty seven year old is now one of the mainstays of her country's defense meanwhile you could get enough fancied herself as

a hairdresser but she hasn't had the chance yet as her circle career has taken center stage after a friend of hers invited her to play almost two decades ago when i was younger i would always play football with a voice they were shocked at first that a girl could play so well but now things have obviously changed my friends are really happy when i am playing and if the game is on television they will call me to congratulate me and say well done the players are well looked after their training base which also hosts a number of other national teams from different sports in russia there is none of the luxury but the russian men's team enjoy their space stay in the best five star hotels in the world however the women's game is not professional in russia meaning that the girls can concentrate on getting better and better more and more people are starting to watch women's food bill in russia but if i'm being honest i would like if more people took up an interest in our game when we play broad we simply notice how the home crowd supports their country and the lift it gives them they will fill out whole stadiums it's completely the opposite in russia with perhaps

a couple of exceptions who. the market game drew well and lots of people come to support us you could train in your church the more experienced members of russia's scared and they'll be hoping to help their country new heights over the next week russia's women's football team will play one of the most important games in you take on austria where you look to qualify for their first major finals in four years but one football is growing in popularity in russia and if the women do manage to qualify for the european championships in sweden in two thousand and thirteen but will only help to boost the popularity of the game richard d'arcy. now into tennis and former world number one caroline wozniacki has tough that a three set victory over unseeded severe arvidson to reach the kremlin cup final here in moscow it was a back and forth march on the center court with the danish third seed prevailing six three seven six six toss over the swedish opponent just over two and a half hours while top seed sam stosur is currently up against another number one i

got him out of it. now and jorge lorenzo has set a new track record to secure a vital pole position for sunday's malaysian grand prix the young rider left it late in the qualifying session to edge out his only time i followed by more than usual trying to second spot on the grid italy is under the busier so will complete the front row header outgoing champion katie stone on their own so she's twenty eight points clear at the top of the standings with three races left which means the two thousand and ten without could secure the second title at the supplying circuit much the twenty five year old leaves too with whom i had racing to finish outside the top. four position as i really really would position for a full list of the model. we need to work i did on the top of the buy because he's it's easy if you will in the. four o'clock is if you will go to

a fast. when elsewhere lance armstrong says it's been a difficult couple of weeks the disgraced cyclist spoke out for the first time since a report by the u.s. anti doping agency claimed he was the linchpin of a major drug ring the sport's governing body the u.c.i. is due to respond on monday and decide if the texan keeps his record seven tour de france titles while the cancer survivor is more anxious his charity foundation should carry on as the live strong group marked its fiftieth anniversary on friday . thank you so much for your support it's it means the world to me to all of us we will not be deterred we will move forward. we will continue to serve the twenty million people around the world that need us the most. now until i saw mick albannach off netted a brace as torpedo returned to winning ways with a feisty win at the bottom of the moby list after winning four in a row peter cave into this not having lost the last two once they started running the company very nice after both knew early on but the home side responded

immediately stopped my cue and nothing stops bytecode after being nice to one up and from then on it was a real seesaw battle as the colds flu in. the next to the first copy that level at three straight this was only the end of the first period and then in the second frame looking back in front and alex that the theory of three full. court sealed victory with his second in the final period so it will be that one five three to seal their fist victory in seven matches and rise to fifth in the western conference while up to mobilise the bottom of the east. now moving on to basketball and moscow region so i think you have claimed their first win in the year our league hanging on to win eighty six eighty five at home to rail madrid well kinky had lost their opening game in group a but they made up for it with an improbable win against way out in front of their home fans in the moscow region the

russian side was looking comfortably the third period and at one stage were eighteen points ahead however right out went on a sixteen point run in the final frame and just came up short in the dying seconds the number was a floater thank you hanging on man for a narrow eighty six eighty five victory. very good for team we were up a lot of that in the beginning and i mean i wish we would have kept their lead but it's good to win especially at home especially for your early against madrid. so it's fenerbahce that top of the group i ate out the moments after they beat me an empirical base second reason for the two games god is that lead group to see the deaf in the best of the guy on our money also had a one hundred percent record and the loot sealed the first word in that group against him peel. finally to go for there's a new face at the top of the leaderboard and mcclatchy classic and again it's someone who's fighting to keep his p.g.a. tour confident season india's arjun atwal hit

a spectacular sixty three in georgia to take a one shot lead at the halfway stage he needs a big win with just two tournament's left to be qualifying for the p.g.a. tour next season while overnight leader marco dawson who's also in the same situation will be feted badly and he's seven shots for the back however davis love the third scene did produce some great for his sixty six put him within a shot of the lead along with jim few rick who is tied with him in second place. and that's all the sports news by. i'm in sochi the only city in europe i'm the host of the twenty fourteen winter the picket. see.

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