iran's disputed nuclear program has managed to dominate headlines for years and today as u.s. officials continue debating over a potential strike against tehran a newly released court weighs the advanced and consequences of taking military action joining me now to talk more about this topic is dr alston long the associate professor of international public affairs at columbia university he's also the co-author of a new report titled weighing the benefits and costs of military action against iran thank you very much for joining me today thanks very much it's a pleasure to be here dr long a bipartisan group of national security experts are the authors and signatories of this extensive report according to your findings is iran's nuclear program currently a threat to the us president it's not a threat to united states iran's nuclear program is under international atomic

energy agency action. work to be had previously done according to the u.s. intelligence community on nuclear weapons it's been suspended so at present iran's nuclear program is not a major threat united states the concern is that it could very rapidly become one how rapidly in less than a year according to some estimates another estimates more than a year a lot depends on whether you're talking about the production of the material the highly enriched uranium for a bomb or an actual deliverable weapon deliverable weapon would take longer production of fissile material could you know within a few few months produce enough or for a bomb well within a few months both in a few weeks americans will be heading to the polls to vote for a new u.s. president or keep the current one in the white house many believe that israel has seen this time. as

a window of opportunity to strike iran dragging the u.s. into a war is there still a threat that it would do so in the main remaining weeks i think the concern about a possible israeli strike was higher a few weeks ago the israelis are now dissolving their parliament and calling for new elections on january twenty second so this i think changes a lot of the previous calculation of people that thought the israeli government might act before the us elections i think now tend to believe wait until at least after us elections if not actually after the new israeli elections now opinions vary but do you think iran has an intention to acquire a nuclear bomb i mean this is literally the sixty four thousand dollar question you know there's a pretty good read on what iran's capabilities in terms of uranium enrichment are the big question which i don't think anyone can give a highly confident answer to is does iran want what people refer to as a threshold capability in other words its ability to produce

a nuclear weapon likely or do they want an actual deployed weapon according to u.s. intelligence community and i think most other observers iran just hasn't made that decision in part because they don't need to and they want to get to that threshold capability before they make any decisions about whether to go to go farther than that threshold because there's no point making that decision early in fact it might be detected by western intelligence and so you could tip your hand before you get to that threshold so i think that decision has been made you don't seem to be putting the threat level of iran's nuclear program as high as some u.s. officials the republican candidates for example mitt romney and his vice presidential candidate paul ryan have been in past weeks essentially saying that iran is a major grave threat are they exaggerating at all with their rhetoric i don't think there's a tremendous amount of exaggeration that iran is a threat generally i mean you know the united. states in iran have had

a pretty hostile relationship for three decades actually more than three decades now they have you know had problematic relations in the gulf they've had conflict via proxies in iraq so i think it's not wrong to say iran is a threat the question is whether iran its nuclear program is a real threat to the united states at the present and it isn't at the present but the concern is as i said it could very quickly become a threat so let's go back to your report according to the findings and extended u.s. military strike on iran's nuclear facilities whether alone or in concert with israel could set back iran's nuclear program for four years but it still would not guarantee that iran would not eventual acquire a nuclear bomb why is that it's because the technology iran already has some pieces and parts they need to acquire from overseas but unless you can guarantee that you can kill off everyone in iran that has knowledge of these programs and their

ability to produce these basic components such as aluminum rotors you can't guarantee that that the program can never be restarted so you can destroy what they have now but their ability to rebuild that even if you can make it take a very long time to rebuild that's what can't be destroyed what kind of long term military commitment with the u.s. have to make to ensure that iran would never be able to build a nuclear bomb i mean it would be similar to what happened with iraq the only way to ensure a country does not acquire a nuclear weapon is to is to forcibly change the regime and go in on the ground occupy yes that's the that's the only way to one hundred percent be sure that the current iranian regime never acquires a nuclear weapon so we're talking about a ten year war. what they. potentially could be iran is a larger country than both iraq and afghanistan combined so if you're talking about a war that would certainly be on that scale where there would be ten times harder not quite as hard who knows but it would be a very substantial military commitment should the u.s.

be concerned about iran's unconventional war capabilities i think the united states is definitely be concerned about iran's unconventional war capabilities by its nature it's harder to sort of define what unconventional war capabilities are and you can count airplanes you can count missiles unconventional it's a little harder to judge but iran has a robust capability for unconventional war they have special operations forces they have kindest and services they have a variety of capabilities to conduct attacks without you know not in the sort of typical military way at the end of the day is this really just a problem for israel iran possible determination of acquiring nuclear weapons or is this a problem for the u.s. as well i think it's a problem for the entire world i mean certainly the you know the entire world has has asked iran to clarify its intentions and it's taken steps i think it's a much bigger problem for israel than the united states if for no other reason than proximity in the size you know israel is a country of you know about the you know in terms of population the size of new

york city and geographically it's quite small it's quite close so i think it's a much bigger problem for israel that it is for the united states but that doesn't make it not a problem for the united states and the rest of the world how much would a war with iran cost the u.s. economy it's very difficult to tell but you know our estimates that even a modest war would would hurt the u.s. economy in part because it would drive up oil prices even a modest in terms of duration spike in oil prices you know the u.s. recovery right now is quite fragile the world recovery is sort of stalled in places . making modest recovery in others so a big spike in oil prices even if it was only for a few weeks would certainly. damage the u.s. economy if it were a longer extended commitment and big disruption in oil then it would be much more also to the global economy to the global economy and then there's the actual dollar figure to conduct military operations right in flying planes dropping bombs these things are are not incredibly expensive but neither are they cheap so it would it

would there would be a it would be a substantial costly thing so i want to ask you a question that politicians always reject to answer does israel have nuclear weapons capacity it's something that the israelis have been opaque on by design throughout their history i think most outside observers would say that the israelis do have a nuclear weapons capacity even if it's one that's never really been deployed or tested and as you mentioned benjamin netanyahu has dissolved the parliament in israel with new elections expected is in january february twenty second when the how much do you think that will play into the israel running conflict i think i think this coming israeli elections will hinge heavily on on what to do about iran the netanyahu government will have some decisions to make they could be they could be very bold and take action as a caretaker government i think most observers don't think they will and in fact a lot of the campaign will be about what to do about the iranian nuclear program.

so i think that's i think will be a huge issue in determining the future of israeli iranian relations so if israel has a stockpile of nuclear weapons as many have reported and iran has not even if you're on board to build one wouldn't there be somewhat of a deterrence policy in place why would israel consider still striking iran the belief is you know if both sides have nuclear weapons no no no one side is going to be foolish enough to use them knowing they're going to face retaliation by the other side say the u.s. soviet union the idea of mutually assured destruction i think the israelis are deeply uncomfortable with this because it doesn't take. hundreds of nuclear weapons to functionally destroy israel as i said israel's a very small country a handful of nuclear weapons maybe even only one nuclear weapon some people refer to israel as a one country could do the same damage it would require hundreds of nuclear weapons to do to a much larger country so i think their concern is why take any risk that maybe the

current leadership in iran is completely rational but maybe a future one won't be why take any risk that there could be these kind of miscalculations in a confrontation so say there's an israeli iranian equivalent of a cuban missile crisis say over hezbollah or syria and instead of ending in a in a sort of tense standoff that resolved peacefully as in the cuban missile crisis this one actually results in the exchange of nuclear weapons think the israeli attitude is you know we have maintained all along we will not be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons into the region we don't want anyone else to do so either because why take the risk you know when u.s. president barack obama was addressing the u.n. general assembly and he was speaking how i think iran has said time for negotiations is not unlimited what do you think he meant by that i mean it's you think that there is some kind of deadline a date that. i don't think there's an exact date but i do think that patience for negotiations particularly after the last round over the summer is sort of wearing

thin the iranians put forward a proposal allegedly some of the iranians deny it some don't it's kind of tough to tell sometimes what the iranians are actually saying but the proposal would have called for the lifting of most sanctions in exchange for suspension of many of the more worrisome activities of the iranian nuclear program and the president said look we you know this isn't this isn't serious we're not going to remove everything that gives us leverage in exchange for these minor concessions so i think the feeling is look we will give diplomacy all the time in the world if it's actually working but if it's just a way for the iranians to stall and by the way over the summer iran greatly increase the raid. of putting centrifuges into one of its enrichment plants so i think that's the feeling it's not that there's a specific date but if it looks like all the iranians are doing is using negotiations as a way to sort of buy time think that's when the president will say look we've given diplomacy you know all the time in the world it hasn't worked your report indicated

that a u.s. military strike against iran would motivate the country to build a bomb if that is the case doesn't this threatening rhetoric coming from u.s. and israeli officials also cause damage i think the idea is to calibrate the threat and maybe the united states hasn't always done the best job but the idea is you know you apply all of these levers of persuasion sanctions the threat of military action to say look this isn't a good path to go down let's find another path but you're absolutely right that if you you know if you're trying to convince somebody to do something or else you're going to carry out a threat you don't want to believe in you're going to carry out the threat anyway right because why would you ever agree to anything if you think you're going to be attacked anyway so it's it can be tricky you're right to calibrate that rhetoric that you know if you do x. we will do y. but if you don't do x. we won't do well dr austin long thank you very much for speaking with r.t. thanks very much was a great pleasure i. get

you sloppy and often knows that to ride a horse you've got to catch it first. for him it's a daily routine that you slough is of course on the island of holland and the heart of by his life on an isolated farm is about blue sky and green grass and she's horses. boy there's sometimes it gets lonely here but horses have become part of me now i've fallen off so many times sometimes big bites as well it's part of my every day life. i home suburban home to it neat bratz locally just laugh for centuries most still live off the land breeze

cattle and fish. is my call is often called the pearl of siberia a horn is said to be the pearl of by call it's a land of think forests. and vast staps. virtually undiscovered by tourists until some twenty years ago i haunt us quickly become a magnet for nature lovers and curial seekers you're quite some way from civilization here accommodation on the island is very basic so you can forget about a t.v. or even run in water for most people a tent is the on the eruption but for those who come here it's exactly what they're looking for. in journey to buy coal can be unique a trip of a lifetime and the locals say once you've seen it they'll be coming back again and

again. bookstores are to a wave of protests in lebanon after the powerful blast that killed at least eight including a top security official. the under siege at the stronghold of get duffy supporters in libya faces an assault quite obviously militias we don't know why the country still gripped by chaos in iraq to the west and back to recall. tens of thousands marched through a lot of them in the later show about anger against the sturdy sweeping europe. borders with me in fifteen minutes from now in the meantime sport with.

hello welcome to the latest sports on this action packed saturday and here are the top stories. leading the way angie fight back to grab a late to one where the time to ten months part was he sitting side by points clear at the top of the russian prime really sydney to back up the bird. dog the thrill of fun lots of schools prizes we just chelsea come from behind to win over to a top notch and remain unbeaten in the english premier league. up to the top even the premier the top seeds on start as the lines of a final showdown against caroline wozniacki to braithwaite in three sets in last. but first of all and one in sororities own goal deep into stoppage time help me fight back from a goal down to win two on a time to ten months spot back to go five points clear at the top of the russian premier league before kick off the fans remember the victims of the stampede that killed sixty six spectators during spawn times you're

a fuck up much against upside column illusion the key arena thirteen years ago alone when the much got underway brazilian striker ballots in was denied by the woodwork before setting up midfield a deal be at the end of a spot in that ten minutes before half time but a yellow card on either side of the end to vote for kiddo come off the visitors with ten men and receive a try or equalized midway through the second. bus with a draw looking imminent an injury time free kick resulted in answer all the heading into his own that's for sure one two one remain unbeaten from sixteen games response act the home to their second straight defeat. but also a double defending champions league one third what i want to know when it's time to combine an exam the closing off netted from the penalty spot on the stroke of half time to play the separates goal of the campaign was the need to push for more. in the second home of the bought fifty million dollar man holt powerful free kick from

long range just wide but i record signing absolute so the bar is a level one second place is. krasnodar they are up to ninth after beating align your two nil two goals in the last eighteen minutes from your game should be in and nicola. the home side in the three points is a line you remain for two points clear of the drop zone. while in england substitute scored a last gasp races ten months champions manchester city snatch a two want to win at west brom wayne rooney netted a no goal that also struck twice as manchester united we've stopped for two sterlings my first off goal against reading gave liverpool their first home win this season just bad light trying to help. aston villa one of the held up for manager at about the martinez we're going to want kevin nolan hit the brakes as west ham thrash santa was and chelsea remain unbeaten at the top after fun matters scored twice as the blues rallied to win

a thrilling london based for two asked. in the early goal in the second half gave them i always feel a lot of. confidence and momentum which we knew we had to ride out a little bit brother you know the first time in fifteen minutes to perform that i think for the rest of the game we were very much a truer to finish the if we wanted to impose so so some women should do so for the majority of to go. now into tennis and top seed some stories that will face former world number one caroline wozniacki in the kremlin cup final after both tough doubts research women's studies injured eight aces to come from their set down and knocked out a number of former top ranked players under evanovich two six six three six two what was nasty perverted and back and forth match against unseeded sweden the obvious and six three seven six six call for the final score in this one studies. wozniacki in the latest encounters between the two the last time they played each

other last few years ago. now much of g.p. lead a wholesaler enzo has set a new track record to secure a vital pole position for sunday's malaysian grand prix the on the horizon left it late in the qualifying session to edge out his only title rival and fellow spaniard danny for drivers a second spot on the grid it is and rare the physio so will complete the front row ahead of outgoing champion casey stoner only runs over twenty eight points clear at the top of the standings with three races left which means the two thousand and ten when i could secure his second title at the supplying circuit but the twenty five year old needs to win and rely on the joystick to finish outside the top. position has already made it with position for a fourth of tomorrow. we need to order the lead on the top of the buy because he's it's easy if you will in the. four o'clock is if you will to do a fast one elsewhere loans armstrong says it's been

a difficult couple of weeks as the disgraced cyclist spoke out for the first time since a report by the us and he doping agency claimed he was the linchpin of a major drug ring the sport's governing body the u.c.i. is due to respond on monday and decide if the texan keeps his record seven tour de france titles while the cancer survivor is more anxious his charity foundation should carry on as the live strong group mark its fiftieth anniversary on friday. thank you so much for your support it's it means the world to me to all of us we will not be deterred we will move forward. we will continue to serve the twenty million people around the world that need us the most and if you want to basketball a must go region side think you have trained their first win in the year a league off to hang on to win eighty six eighty five at home to powerhouse rail madrid he had lost the right main gaming group a but made up for it with an unlikely win against way out in front of their home towns just outside moscow while

the russians i was looking comfortable in the third period and that one stage were eighteen points ahead however in the final frame the way out went on a sixteen point run and came up just short in the dying seconds when rudy and and missed a floater leaving him keep to claim a famous scalp. very good for a team we were up a lot of that in the beginning and i mean i wish he would have kept that lead but it's good to win especially at home especially for your early against madrid. and finally the russian women's football team just two games away from qualifying for their first major tournament in three years there in austria for the first leg of their play off on sunday with the winner going through to next year's european championships in sweden and richard feet caught up with some of the players both on and off the pitch. you could pretty even yelena have been friends since childhood over footballing careers have taken very similar parts so it was no surprise for they ended up as roommates but it might not be five star accommodation provides

police time and mines ahead of such a big game but. we aren't nervous going into the game we are fully relaxed and ready to go out onto the field and get the victory that we need that is to get in the group stages who played against italy didn't put in a good performance and lost their game elsewhere in qualifying menage to beat the mess noonan's very comfortably. we drew our last match against poland but the game against austria will be a real test but we must win we have been preparing very hard for this encounter yelena force about becoming a model before she decided to pursue a career in football however the twenty seven year old is now one of the mainstays of her country's defense meanwhile you could put enough fancied herself as a hairdresser but she hasn't had a chance yet as her soccer career has taken center stage after a friend of hers invited her to play almost two decades ago when i was younger i would always play football with a voice there were shocked at first that

a girl could play so well but now things have obviously changed my friends are really happy when i am playing and if the game is on television they will call me to congratulate me and say well done the players are well looked after their training base which also hosts a number of other national teams from different sports and russia has none of the luxury that the russian men's team enjoy it's based on the best five star hotels in the world however the women's game is not professional in russia meaning that the girls can concentrate on getting better and better more and more people are starting to which remains food bill in russia but if i'm being honest i would like if more people took up an interest in our game when we play abroad we simply notice how the home crowd supports their country and the lift it gives them they will fill out whole stadiums it's completely the opposite in russia with perhaps a couple of exceptions. they market game very well and lots of people come to support us you could get even the two of the more experienced members of russia's school and they'll be hoping to help their country new heights over the next week

russia's women's football team will play one of the most important games in years as a take on all straight as they look to qualify for the first major finals in four years one for what is growing in popularity in russia and if the women do manage to qualify for the european championships in sweden two thousand and thirteen that will only help to boost the popularity of the game. the. wealthy british scientists like.

markets. come to. find out what's really happening to the global economy with max concert for a no holds barred look at the global financial headlines kaiser reports. who are on the rise. for this missile defense offensive. u.s. election close to thirty seconds long. was the strangest attempt of a military takeover of. the u.s. president trying to overthrow a foreign country's government but his strategic game was lost. and america

recognized its defeat. questioning if cuba managed to cope with its victory at all don't. forget odd. i live here thank you i'll go back to russia but i live in the cuban missile crisis games and reality to. me please please please. please please. please please. folks.

sometimes you see a story so. you think you understand it and then you glimpse something else you

hear or see some other part of it and realize everything you thought you knew. i'm tom harpur welcome to the big picture. mission and free cretaceous free in-store charges free arrangement free. three stooges free. download free broadcast clothing.