hello and welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle molly a country in chaos and it's only getting worse as molly's neighbors decide on some form of intervention to restore order and take on the spread of religious fundamentalism there's always the possibility of unintended consequences when african intervention into mali inevitably opened the door to a western style receiving change and with this just make things even worse. cross-talk the mali crisis i'm joined by brooke spector in johannesburg he's an associate editor of the daily maverick and

a retired american diplomat in london we have i have johnson he is a director at viewpoint africa and an award winning journalist and in geneva we cross to alexander both arrive there he is a professor and director of the international relations department at webster university all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want. i'm going to you first i mean madam secretary clinton is in algeria trying to drum up support for an intervention into mali. is in the africa these africans do it on their own are they really need western help and i'll talk about american drones later go ahead. yeah clearly ms clinton going to. express this as a concerned concern for the world that the rebels who have now been supported by al qaeda in many different capacities are taking a stronghold in that country and it's not to say that the africans cannot do it on their own well clearly with their limitations echo us which clearly has to take a strong lead on this through its military wing has shown to be very effective in

the past in places like syria luna liberia where again ninety percent of that contingency was always supported by the nigerian troops and this time around we already see nigerian troops who are already stretched in their own country dealing with booker i miss you so yes a concern a worry that africans do not necessarily have the capacity or the capabilities or the the financial muscle to be able to resolve the problems which are facing them internally from an african content perspective but i believe that the western powers also alarmed concerned that terrorism may be a problem with this may be the new launching pad for al-qaeda to take western forces and they want to put their best foot forward it would appear so about a concern that but if western boots find themselves in that part of the world it could become a new insurgence similar to what we've seen in afghanistan similar to what we've seen in iraq and exam know is how how much devastation this could cause the major

major concern that we have all around this is that is the impact is going to have on its neighbors and of course algeria is already questioning and i understand about when a very asking for help it's not about a neighbor's alexander i mean this would have been had would have happened if there hadn't been the intervention in libya earlier that's where all these arms have come from. i think it's very important to decide exactly at which level this situation is situated it is no longer a national issue it is really a regional issue you mentioned libya and the chaos that that exists now in libya and the various groups armed groups because the stockpiles of weapons from the khadafi regime are now open and available to to all international terrorists so yes indeed if we talk about the situation in northern mali we certainly have to talk about the situation in libya but we also need to talk about the situation in algeria and this is very important algeria has been undertaking all sorts of

military and security operations against insurgencies and rebellions and and internal threats internal struggles for over a decade and it is a paradox that it would be in fact the success of these military and security operations in algeria that has pushed a number of international now international terrorists into into mali so definitely it is a regional issue it is not a situation that mali government however of national unity it may be that is going to be able to to handle that i also have and i have expressed a certain number of doubts as to the capacities of echo us definitely it is important that this is seen and there's a lot of international pressure to see this as an echo us led operation but very clearly and we heard about it before the capacities for doing this alone without the support of the international community are not here at this time brooks i mean

everyone's talking about a military solution have we exhausted a diplomatic one i don't know whether we've exhausted a diplomatic solution but the problem is this is not a this is not a dispute between two nations you have to think of it is there are three there are three slow. lee interlocked problems one is the internal situation within mali in which the northern part of the country is now effectively been walled off from the rest of the country as a quasi i.e. independent kind of state as a result of the coup with the things that followed but the second is a trans national possibility and the third of course is international terrorism that doesn't deal with borders per se that's the reason i think that the the lead the the way in which this is being dealt with now is in fact a three tiered response first there is the relationship to echo us the second and

we haven't mentioned this so far is the relationship to the african union and its possible participation and the third of course is the united nation and somewhere among those three different layers there is the possibility of military action there is the possibility of negotiation and there is the possibility at least of some sort of solution that gets resolved out of that but we're still fortunately or fortunately we're still in early days on this we don't really have a plan of action by ecowas little loan a plan of action from the african union or more than just the encouragement from the united nations oh if i go back to you in london it seems to me that everyone and mali is waiting for western intervention here ok and the reason i say it is that because the other actors that have been mentioned this program are not effective enough ok but this same time there's a long history of failure of intervention here which will work this time. well one

thing you don't want on the background is the french the past doesn't come doesn't help but the problem with the current interim civilian unity government that's in place currently is that they do not even trust their own military has examined the existing military has lost trust because it created caused a coup early on this year which in turn caused the nightmare situation that we have with a good proportion of the country going to tired rebels on expected the show so i thought i'd personally think if they can resolve the internal squabbles if if they can be some level of confidence in the military. maybe they may be able to have success against the the tire problems in the north if they get the right to quit mentee if they're paid well if they if they have more hours to stop again but i don't think they have the capacity to do it on their own clearly the government has put it so it's hands up to say from an african perspective from a regional perspective from a global person saying we need help we can't resolve this problem on our own the

international community clearly seems to have said well fair enough we can help you we recognize your concern but we can only help you through we are not prepared the west is not prepared to put boots on the ground for example what we saw in libya they are not prepared to use nato and of course if they have not yet look at it yet not yet this problem not yet the west but of course this problem simply because they actually went and got rid of gadhafi and of course we know that half of the people who are fighting on the ground in in in the country at the moment are troops that have come back from from from that part of the world so they've called the instability that we're facing right now and they don't seem to have a solution in place to resolve what can actually become the new fighting grandfather qaeda against the rest of the world ok alexander it's a damned if you do damned if you don't in looking at resolving the situation because past interventions have been catastrophic. i'm not sure that we necessarily

as you know xander they're going to have and i'm not sure that an operation to try and stabilize the situation in northern mali is is necessarily doomed to failure but i think that we have to introduce a little bit of rational is a in in all of this because what we have to heard before is really the post-colonial african paradox in which on one side you don't want to the intervention you don't want to help you don't want to support you don't want the presence of western troops and nato and and the french or whoever else the belgians in some other parts of africa but on the other side i think that everyone realizes that most. african union operations peacekeeping operations have essentially depended on a lot of technical logistical and financial support from from northern countries so i think that we have to be realistic about about that as i said before i'm not completely pessimistic about the possibilities of such

a security operation taking place but of course we have to be realistic there has already been a first plan proposed to the united nations security council by ecowas which was rejected as seen as two unrelated stick the second plan has been i would say mildly accepted because there was no other solution but it is quite clear that three thousand three hundred soldiers of echo us is not going to be sufficient even even to to simply control the very substantial borders that we are that we are talking about and until we are able to provide some security and some control over these borders we are not going to be able to realistically do anything serious about the situation in northern mali and the suffering of the of the population in it a lot is just a fig leaf isn't it. this plan is unrealistic well no i don't think that's entirely fair i don't think that's fair i mean i think what we've heard from the other two

panelists bears on this. you're going to be looking at a series of related activities you're going to be looking at diplomatic initiatives you're going to be look at looking at internal negotiations and you're going to be looking at the pressure from the mobilization and the gathering together of military force from echo us with support inevitably from western nations but not and i think i quite rightly said earlier you're not going to see western troops on the ground one place you look for a model of success although it took a long time is go further to the east in the sudan and it took a number of years but the combination of negotiation pressure availability of some troops to help stabilize the circumstances and the inevitability of the struggle finally winding down our eyes can see now it's going to judgment here

gentlemen we're going to go with short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on mali state are to. say. mission. free. free. free. free. free. free blog video for your media project a free media. tom. market

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and you can see. the. welcome back you're probably talking about you mind you were talking about the molly man's. leg and you can see the slow. ok let's go back to london it looks like the military use of force is going to be applied again another intervention here iow what is the outcome what is the end game that you want to see what's victory ok. well victory would be a swift. decisive action against the the the rebels. with very little for casualties that's unlikely to happen but that's would be very swift again the fact that the tells you would have been taken restore democracy. allowing

rule of law to apply and showing that the law is resounded which is not in keeping with the vast majority of people in that country so that would be a success. and of course having ensuring that the military success is seen in a fashion we does not involve western intervention so that will be the full package unlikely to be seen but that would be what i would deem to be a true success or likely to happen again because the costs when the when body bags start coming back home when. greener like warfare takes place when urban warfare is more than likely to happen and sure when the enemy as they see it would. would melt into the population and there will be large displacement of people into neighboring countries our jewry booking a facile. mauritania then there these are all fragile states fragile states call for fragile problems and there their democracy is at stake their infrastructure

which is non-existent for many of them providing access to education water health care. housing these would all be stretched so the impact the fallout globally when the western powers would be at odds with eastern powers how the russians and the chinese would take this and what sort of pressures we're brought to the security council how public opinion globally would shift and change this is a completely new game altogether i don't think anyone's thinking about it that's real solve it that's one of the reasons why we're doing the program alexander mission creep it always seems to have been mission. well what i just heard i sort of smile because i think that the show was was really about the american presidential election i don't believe much of that i really do believe that the endgame the end success in northern mali will be a region that is economically integrated in and globalized and or has access to the

world trade so i would like to see schools being built i would like to see roads being built we talked about access to to water i think is really the solution is is going to be at the end state is going to be economic and social development in northern mali and in order to achieve that i don't think that the solution is yesterday's war i don't think it is fighting a counterinsurgency operation in northern mali i think definitely there are security issues that are going to have to be handled but fundamentally this is about capacity building this is a governance issue this is a socio economic solution that that has to come it is not only a military military it well it's certainly the way really being sold out way though it's all part of the war on terror being all that way if it is being sold yes but that's. but you see beauty is in the eye of the beholder western countries are definitely saying france is saying for example no boots on the ground but at the

same time let's let's face it military operations in northern mali are going to take place essentially from bases that are not situated in in mali if you look at a map you will see that it makes a lot more sense and the distances are far shorter from countries neighboring countries that that our objective allies or that that enjoy the support of the international community so we can think of other original solutions and one of them that has been practiced by many european countries and also more recently by the united nations has been the hiring of private security and private military companies so yes indeed we will probably not see uniform to battalions of french or other troops but let's let's be realistic and it has been the case for forty years that the techniques are being becoming more and more refined but we will see definitely security detail you're saying to nor your nurse mercenaries will be used

brooks it when i go to you we drone that's what the americans will use eventual drones. oh i don't i don't know about that the kinds of targets that a drone is used against requires there be a discernible target which is viable enough to be fired but they're not used that way to currently or use it but when it does i use that way and we know that for a fact ok not with let's let's remember we're talking about northern mali is a territory the size of france first of all it's very light land there's not a lot of tree cover there's not a lot of there's not a lot of anything it's not quite desert but it's close and you're not going to see boots on the ground from the united states or western europe you going to at worst see echo us troops supported by the west but what you will see is surveillance

craft the kinds of things that are used to pinpoint where people are moving so that they can be they can be dealt with they can be met they can be monitored by those troops on the ground there won't be all that many troops a drone requires that you have been a dental file will target a specific house a village a person and if the have called they're not going to have that kind of activity and in any case to base the drones you're going to have to have military bases from which they can operate those don't exist either well let me say is what they want to examine is their algeria's their. that's a long long way for a drone flight ok go ahead jump in london peter the problem with this narrative is the lack of experience on base and how the west have dealt with this situation in the past afghanistan iraq drones have been used and what do we have very little success and pakistan again very little success all it does is antagonize is the

local people who blow back. to to absolutely and of course the rest is history when they start revolting against you in the particular instance to do with. the neighbors don't like it algeria for example is caught in two part of many of the algerians want war many arguments one negotiation skinny on the one hand saying we want to go all out war but they're not the ones who are going to have the majority of the troops on the ground is nigerians algerians they're going to have the most impact they're going to have the most losses and the question is are they prepared i don't think so psychologically the nigerian troops are beaten book around has really hurt them in the situation we have in somalia al-shabaab is ok they've been pushed back non the less crystal creating a bit of a resistance we do not have the experience to show that this type of fighting in the short term provides a quick victory and that's where we have a problem public opinion will change very quickly international consensus would not

happen and then you go start going into areas waters that you do not want to be and i think the united states europeans have got to pay a lot of home ridge on this and sadly the african troops are being sent in clearly have no choice but it's going to be difficult fighting with an ideology the the militants clearly have and i join a g. issue you do not fight and we nigel lodge you was overnight it takes time it takes years it takes decades so the solution in terms of short term is a lot so i can see it and xander a cynic would say is when we look at the situation that the americans want to bigger footprint in africa it's looking down the line and competition with the chinese for example it wants to have a military presence on the continent and a big one. well there are many o.t. political issues in in africa and this is no this is no news that has been the case for probably two centuries. i do think however that the us presence in in

africa and in particular through or in in particular in western africa would not take place through a permanent military bases this is not europe after after world war two this is not japan i think the issues are very very different and if the united states has an interest has a vested interest in that part of the world in that region it's probably more commercial and more trained oriented and more development oriented than anything else and i think it is in the interest of the united states to make sure that these countries are able to trade are able to become dynamic and a part of the international community ok brooks what do you think about that you know it's really geopolitics also in play here. well it is geopolitics but it's geopolitics in the service of trade and development because that's that's where the stability for these countries comes from and that's where the lessons requirement for security assistance alternately stems from i mean if you if you

look at the american military footprint in africa it's it's almost invisible there's a small number of logistical and support people in a facility in djibouti and other than that there are a couple of very small training missions in east africa and there are one or two very very small surveillance support groups and in the west after that it's marine guards and embassies for the most part we're not after all a thing about a country that had don't think the u.s. i mean it's on its a lot of people to know i'm not a literary activity i am going to you back to london here i know i it's i mean it's been you know there they have set up a home command for africa ok i mean it's more than a few embassy guards that i have go ahead jump in. well africom clearly is around it's here to stay and he's going nowhere and was like this only confirm its existence the question is why is africa not be the umbrella organization going in

after the rebels in mali and i think african has its own problems about think it has no one in the world psychologically it hasn't won it to convince a lot of people on the african continent that it's required but when you have our qaeda forces in mali when you have the al-shabaab in somalia when you have booker harami in nigeria and many other groups fledgling all over the african continent it's days that justification for africa but the african brand is one that's not been sold and so is the african brand is also difficult to swallow if african which be branded with moving forward i think that would be a disaster so african fawley's intention of being on the african has not delivered nor is it to achieve any of its own objectives its has a huge major major problem rebranding itself for it to be accepted locally all right gentlemen much discussed here thanks very much for joining me many thanks to my guest today geneva london and in johannesburg and thanks to our viewers for

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