storm there will be a new debate a new discussion about climate change because the two presidential candidates two major ones don't like to talk about this issue yet and they're still not going to talk about it climate change is the third rail of american politics it's recognized that the cap and trade bill that the house of representatives passed in two thousand and nine cost the democratic party the control of the house of representatives so nobody wants to go there right now ok richard i mean so it's just about politics nobody really cares about the earth everyone just cares about elections well i mean in america you've got massive massive funding for climate denial for people to go around saying it's not happening in the news picked a vice presidential candidate who says it's not happening why do they say it's not happening because they're paid through the nose to say it's not happening by the oil and coal industry ok dineen when you come in on this just politics not science so i don't know where that's coming. well i just want to say that i don't get any

funding from the oil industry or anyone and i'm a physicist and i've studied the question carefully and i do not believe that there is an established link between any greenhouse effect or planetary warming and severe weather events i don't even think that well i'm sure the statistics if you look at historical climatology the statistics are such that there are not more severe storms than there had been in the recent past or in the longer term past you can you have to ask the historical climatologists and they will all tell you the peer reviewed publications are very clear when you talk to these experts they'll tell you ok well that would be that would be me go ahead i'm the only person i mean only person in the room here who is actually published in the scientific literature hurricanes and sea surface temperature and i can tell you we have measures of hurricane activity around the planet it's called the accumulated cycle own energy index the ace index and right now it is near its lowest value that has ever been

measured and there is no relationship none zero between hurricane strength and activity on the planet and the surface temperature you'd think there would be but you know in climate science everything else being equal yeah that would be the case obviously everything else is not equal ok richard what do you think about this what is the relationship i think we're in agreement on that point of firstly because patrick hasn't found something doesn't mean it's not black if you look if you look in the right way you won't see something even though it is that there's other people who have published in this they don't know we have made it as a very good measure. yeah i have to ok we have a discrete measure of hurricane strength and it is not going up it is actually very low i'm sorry that's the data that we're going to put through decay in this issue and it just doesn't work richard continue go ahead well i mean if you know the standard richard go ahead go ahead rick has a very particular opinion

a very particular opinion he's showing it in his various books which. puts no one side of the argument and that's not what a scientist and you can argue with actually argue ad hominum. no it's not what i'm arguing facts are facts and the facts are indicating that we are in somewhat of a lot of trouble ninety seven percent of climate scientists agree the planet is warming we're would you would you like to go back to the 1980's patrick go ahead for work but i'd like to go back to let me tell you about hurricanes history in the united states hurricane history hurricane history in the united states indicates clearly that the east coast was much more active colony diahann carroll ninety in the one nine hundred fifty s. than it is now those storms were a little bit west of new york east of new york city had they been about one hundred miles further east they would have had would have created the same problem that we had from sandy i'm sorry well you need to look at the historical but only if our

view is that we should talk about direction we should talk about the direction of how it could because there's some research out there by some pretty reputable people saying to be changes in the arctic ice is changing the direction of that but i don't know for sure because it's one of ben and as you know it's very difficult to late from what i mean i want to go to any and i don't know man there's another man on the panel do you want to jump into anything that you've heard here go ahead . well i mean a lot of this sounds to me like to people who have already decided and one may be right one may be wrong but the point is i don't believe that the data is the short term data which richard is talking about is sufficient to be able to know if extreme weather events are increasing or decreasing i don't think it is you have to look at a longer term historical record you can you can go back a thousand years with these things you can look at tree rings and look at the forest fires in north america you can do all kinds of things and historical

climatologists have done this and every time there's been a serious statistical study that looks for a meaningful trend they don't find one and they certainly do not find correlations between temperatures and storm of events i mean that is completely fabricated it comes from chaos there's a rat you know nonequivalent physics and these are very tenuous models they can have never been applied realistically to something like a planet a realistic plan a thing of how this is going to be we really have a legally insane richard go ahead i didn't hear that i mean firstly in this sort of modeling that people are doing looking into how it can do is what saves so many lives and how it can sound be the same sort of models that are predicting that extreme weather events are going to increase also the models that we use to tell it what americans the storm is coming and get them all out of the way and the other thing is the extreme weather event is not just how it goes but it's the waves and you know all about that in moscow there was a heat wave and

a lot of scientists are breaking that down i think is a climate of that a third of american crops lost this year because of the heat wave cities all over the world this year been flooded now and we have heard some of the wake up and all is from one of our cars all right gentlemen it's not talk over each other that's not how you do it but here's how you should go gentlemen let's go to patrick in washington go ahead. the fact of the matter is we also have a measure of extreme weather events done by the national oceanic and atmospheric administration here it's called the climate extremes index and yes it is going up but it is gone up to the value that it was at in the early twentieth century in other words we've gone back to the past when there was not an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere sorry it's not unusual ok richard then then what do we do do we do nothing and just watch these storms i want to i want to intervene i may as readers and i say some are right that that's the whole point of the program jumping it's crosstalk go ahead richard you said the modeling has saved the lives of people

from the severe storm sandy it's not modeling that's called forecasting modeling and forecasting are quite different if you want to forecast you get good quality satellite imagery and people who have are used to seeing them who have the experience and you can forecast modeling the kind of mom you know talking about it is on its way to listen or leave it and. keep going i don't even understand the point richard go ahead you want to explain yourself go ahead well so so well i mean i'm saying that sort of if you've got a grants like sandy every year then you know you can look at them and say oh yeah i've seen that before i know what is going to we haven't had something like that in the before so i needed models to predict what it was going to do to me focus on there have been severe storms in the lifetime of a professional have i mean it's always been like looking at satellite images there have been all kinds of all kinds of storms they haven't always hit in places where

you want to talk about them but there have been all kinds of ok but then me and ensure that they're your answer just as they've been hit were all the television cameras are ok gentlemen is it just a freak storm or a it's all just a fraction go a sigh is it just. sort of freak storms patrick. all storms are freak storm those are as is often the on any planet on any planet if you don't mind i'd like to go here on any planet that has an ocean of the configuration of the atlantic with a continent on its western side that does not have a mountain range that prevents polar cold air from mixing with tropical air you will get storms like sandy they've happened before with a very happy and overthrew the weather and climate change in the climate or not richard go ahead get stronger if you want anything else will you get more i want to see out of the system so that the ocean is getting hotter because of what we are

doing that wolf is well in the ocean is what fuels her so all of the things being equal they will get stronger we may be lucky they may start turning away from a. source of all kinds more energy in the says not to do things are not equal could go ahead patrick can i can i give you can i give you a basic course in climatology here ok basic climatology from someone who speaks very highly of china's dream you know it's not written by the temperature contrast i work for the cato institute i'm not i'm sorry the strength of the dream is driven by the temperature contrast between the poles and the equator ok in a greenhouse enhanced world that temperature contrast relaxes because the polar areas wore more now in fatter it was really shastri juiced up hurricane sandy. no no it just it just weakens and hurricane sandy was actually enhanced by a very strong jet stream the opposite of what would occur under

a greenhouse warming scenario sorry and greenhouse warming is real by the way i'm not you know that's obvious a little and let's let's not even go there ok richard you want to say something before you and i throw your delivery richard go ahead. i want to go there with the head of a lot of people the u.s. senate who do go there and they're funded by the oil industry they're funded to say there's no such thing as greenhouse effect as a tool and i wish patrick was would give some of your expertise to those people and tell them you guys a row the greenhouse effect is we'll right gentlemen i'm going to jump in here we're going to go to a break we're going to go to a break and after that break we will continue our discussion on climate change stay with our.

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download the official publication so choose your language stream quality and enjoy your favorite. t.v. is not required to watch on t.v. all you need is your mobile device watch are to any time. the are. plenty. welcome back to cross talk on your live go to my. we're talking about extreme weather and politics. and.

you know it seems like the united states is kind of singled out in many ways because it kind of debate we're having here doesn't happen in other places in the world and it's because of a charge that richard has made is that a lot of people are in denial and they're paid off to be in denial how do you react to that. i think that's silly i don't think that's the reason at all i think that the american. tradition of being stronger and independent. american citizens a parent can people have a tradition of being independent thinkers they don't they don't necessarily believe the experts that are on t.v. they try to figure out things for themselves they go from their own experience and they have a different opinion and that's why the media that's one of the impacts on the media of course the media are controlled by many influences but there's something that richard said just before the break that i want to come back to he said there's more energy into the system therefore the storms are going to be more severe that's not

true there's not more energy in the system there is as much energy coming from the sun as there always was and so much energy going out from the earth back into space from that initial energy of the sun there is not nor energy and if you're going back to you see in physics that the temperature is temperature of the surface can be higher without there being talk about your energy input into the system richard while you're talking about the temperature of the ocean where you're not which is not a system that's driven by more energy all right gentlemen it's i want to stay away from the science because energy most of you really are not is exciting area where most of my viewers are not scientists so it's all right straight forward ok all right richard well you made the accusation so it's something that was not scientific so ok excuse me but i want to change gears because i want to talk about a. case or plenty of people from this type of thing here i mean if i can go to patrick before to the brown two thousand and eight two thousand and nine you had newt gingrich you had mitt romney gets flipped on this you actually had a quite

a few republicans that agreed with this and now the people say they're in complete denial because of the oil companies because of the the tea party the koch brothers eccentric cetera. i will tell you that mitt romney i mean i don't really know and you're going to reduce greenhouse gas regulation very much the advisers that he has on global warming are pretty green and i wouldn't be surprised hold on your hats you heard this here first of all that he might actually push for a tax on carbon based energy. yeah ok patrick if i can why did you pick paul ryan is running and why do you talk so much about coal during the presidential debates patrick going back to you and oil by the way. i do know that rock romney's advisor on climate change is jim cotton from constellation energy jim connaughton was the person in the bush administration bush two who pushed cap and

trade and now they're talking carbon tax you know the world is not what you think it is it is not black and white republican sometimes do green things we might not agree with them but i think you're going to see that happen. and i wish that they were going where you are going to raise you know what your name is nestle's don't talk over each other richard go ahead what i mean it's interesting that romney has this hidden green agenda but if you look at the polling data most independents yes you know it's climate change the problem is so why is he not tell me why why are you having to go and say oh romney's green why isn't he not saying it the good point so i mean you know you're saying he's going to only come out because he wants to get a lot easier to pendants have voted but there's clear research as most independents in america see there is a problem so if you want to get elected boys may come out and say mean things ok all right does it go back to denny i think everybody and we i mean address your

clear research all right patrick go ahead please do sir. it's go back to patrick you know are we going to do when americans are asked to rank ok when americans are are asked by the gallup organization a very respected polling organization to rank environmental issues in terms of their importance global warming invariably comes in dead last those are the facts and you can say what you want about indiana maybe because it's not in the me you're very much a day i mean go ahead of fox news are told except play no that's my point jenny you want to jump in there go ahead please sir. well i would just like us to forget about c o two because the c o two the greenhouse effect from c o two is saturated that's a physical phenomenon you know you see their own personal room gets more greenhouse incident against it is completely. which is why which is why which is why it has a minimal effect compared to other facts constantly. and that relates to lend you

use not only for the land use you can do it all for me i'm going to school calculation it's called it's called saturation and it's a it's an op to go even though i understand your side to side which is quietly disagree with double the amount of c o two no they don't in fact i'm in conversation with you that's an example of the people who don't really everyone everyone agrees that we're we're looking at a phenomenon called saturation it's an optical phenomenon it's basic physics and they've got to you know science there is going to be i'm going to use them on course they do richard are you a physicist could we actually ask a climatologist or the answer to that is you are saying i don't science from iowa city that you were you're going to head richard go ahead go ahead raise your hands you guys are curing me of not being a physicist he's a. bit of the six of being fired that's interesting ok patrick you want to jump in the fact is you know you think you are just so you're not scientists really are here we're not moving forward patrick go ahead. it's not

saturated but it is also not the portion of the response curve where there is an extremely strong response. basically if you look at the temperature affects of carbon dioxide right now i would suspect that if we go to the end of this century you will see a warming but it's going to be a lot less than people think probably about i would say one point six degrees over the course of the twenty first century that's not in consequential but it's also not the end of the world and people are going to adapt to it ok adaption here and i mean ok richard please can i come in here they have more power parity could what have you right in saying you're talking about an effect from the c o two a low. one point six degrees are you saying that's the effect of c o two alone no no no no that. no no our climate models have an interesting characteristic that people on television are told about which is the ones for the emissions scenario

that we are on tend to predict constant rates of warming in other words once a warming rate is established that rate is maintained that rate has been established and it turns out feet it's not nearly as high as the mid range estimates from those models that's in the mahdi's the arms all that's in there and it's not i think you can actually read this article said it well i think patrick you should answer richard's question correctly i mean you are or you are not doing or not as good as you and i don't think we're alone yeah if you really are here gentlemen one of the time they need to head. all right all right listen that one point for a one point six prediction for the doubling of c o two is something that i've calculated myself that's a correct calculation based on c o two alone just c o two is saturated but that saturation is no not one hundred percent complete and therefore you but it's still called saturation that's the physical phenomenon and so you do get that you know we're not there so you have to alone and then if you want more than that you have

to look at what richard is calling feedbacks but the physics and understanding of those feedbacks is even much more much more don't you think you need to understand the math well you know what is the effect alone you don't need to understand then if you want to know where you don't need to understand the look look i want to move what i'm saying one of the most important measurements let me finish this sentence ok one of the most important and this was published again recently by a research group in peer reviewed literature when you look at which there is a temperature change as as as as if you look at ice cores several groups have found independently that increases in c o two follow increases in surface temperature and there's ocean water you have i correctly follow it in other words one of the increase in temperature because the reason i do you have to do that and not but if it's in the wrong direction gentlemen gentlemen i'm going to jump in we're right now i'm going to jump in here gentlemen and ask let me i'm

going to actually you know we're running out of time i want to ask a question first going to patrick we've talked about what scientists are and i mean for a no no i have to do that job and i'm not doing it very well apparently ok patrick i want to ask you a question we've talked about what scientists think what should politicians be doing now. i think given the fact that the indications are that warming was over predicted nonetheless it's real probably the best thing to do is to make sure that we have economic growth and development because that because hold on let me finish i'm almost done because the capital that is generated there will be used as investment for more efficient technologies that will even less we're already seeing that happen in the united states nobody thought five years ago that we would have hundreds of years worth of natural gas which produces half the greenhouse gas emissions of coal when it's used for electricity but we do that with discovered through capital through investment and that's what we need in this century we don't

need to tax people to death ok richard what should politicians be doing now. i mean here's what we need is investment in actual clean technologies not have clean completely clean solar power we should be putting solar panels on every house in every country and if we do that then everybody's going to see that as a person to richard he knows i may be the sun doesn't shine right there right into created supply it's the i live in edinburgh scotland is it is sunny the way you guys live and it still works on my house it's not even in a public position we get enough electricity to supply you right yeah well the sunshine is worse ok no it was only a tiny your turn what should politicians be doing now. i think politicians should be representing people asking what people want and representing them instead of representing special interests and that includes the financier's who want a carbon economy it includes the geo political planners who want to use the carbon economy to control the development in the developing world and includes all those

interests that are fighting it out and i think we're hearing mostly those interest on this show today but what politicians need to do or maybe it's what people need to do citizens need to force their politicians to represent them and their interests and that means how you use the land and how you can make a good life for yourself and so on those are the important things all of this is as well terek and is being used by powerful interests to control the economy and geo political battles and so on that's what this is about all right gentlemen we didn't settle much here but it was quite interesting many thanks again my guest in washington our wayne admiral and thanks to our viewers for watching us to see you next time and remember rostock rooms. in.

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