in wages which have not been keeping up with inflation according to the b.l.s. does this tell us a different story in terms of a u.s. economic recovery or a lack there well might shed lock investment advisor for cit because of that capital and author of mischa's global economic trend analysis is here to talk about it all he crunches the numbers every month and manages to find so much more than we hear about in the mainstream media so thanks for being on the show this is going to be a bit of a tradition talking jobs numbers when these reports come out so i'm happy you're on . well it's pleasuring back on the show again and you want to make this sort of a regular feature on a barrel friday let's go where my ladder and i love it marty mischa's payroll friday let's start with last month ok payrolls better than expected september revised data august revised at its fabric jobs report is a pretty good report right now is a very good report actually i was kind of surprised by well you know i don't know i

mean looking at what you know eighty eight came out with yesterday you know or the other day revising the entire year now by zero hedge calculation bought a hundred thirty six thousand jobs was it was that it and i went excuse me yes three hundred sixty five thousand i went back and said who let's look at this for the course of the last twelve months it was like four hundred nineteen thousand roughly thirty five thousand jobs a month that's a pretty big monitor pretty big mess but then if you look at two thousand and eleven they were wrong on the other direction by about two hundred twenty nine thousand jobs or so are low so you know that lends credence to to a theory war and you know that the recovery was actually little bit better than what people saw it in two thousand and eleven and it's not as good here in two

thousand and twelve. unless you want to make anything out of the a.t.p. numbers at all because i issue kind of a curious statement lauren that they had tend to want to match last numbers over time really really is that supposed to make us feel good i don't think so why don't they just reported to numbers of what they're saying because these are actual jobs numbers are the largest federal process the united states warrant you know how about just reporting the number and then if they want an little's bad. as to what they think it might really mean. trying to match. the time when they're wildly off in one direction and then another will and it early. and it would seem that the whole point of having a g.p. is having a private gauge versus the public numbers that we get from the b.l.s. each month let's talk more about what came out in the b.l.s. report though because headline numbers might look pretty good but obviously there's

so much to pick out of this report that doesn't make it into the headline numbers that people pay so much attention to so one thing that i was looking at ok though we've been adding more jobs we've seen average work week be stuck at around thirty four point four hours for four consecutive months what do you take from this. well the average work week is stark but actually if you look at the an index of average hours that really jumped out at me today especially in light of the really good payroll or barely budged actually it's hardly budged all year so what does that tell you tell us you were hiring more workers brought up there the number of hours there were certainly isn't going up we talked about this last month where i said. i thought obamacare was a factor in that well i'm positive now that obamacare is is is a factor in that we've seen all kinds of corporations come out big chains like you

know red lobster and and and all the restaurants are coming out to reducing the number of hours i get a call from a friend said a who who said that he works for a large chain and got about two thousand and part time workers every one of them was informed today that the number of hours they're going to be allowed to work is going to drop from thirty to twenty five because in a month on yes we're talking about twenty percent more workers are going to need to be hired because they're reducing the hours of part time workers there so there are so the rise in employment law and that's it right there it will end in ways that rise from obamacare and you're sticking to that obamacare thesis despite the revision in part time jobs for september which was revised down after that huge number was reported. when we had what was it last month it was eight hundred fifty

two or eight hundred sixty two thousand jobs i tell you in the last month they were i would see that we expect to see a resurgent revision to the mean you're going to got not the direction that i expected by the way because whole time employment actually rose today right but we're looking at. you know one good number you know not in context what this trend has been really all year towards more part time employment a lot of people tell me you know and quite accurately as they've met you know you can't blame all of this on obamacare but i never did in the first place or all i said was it was a factor right so we've had this trend towards part time employment for a one time yes you know why because companies don't want to pay wages so obamacare didn't create things but obamacare. that turned up because the definition of full time employment you know obamacare where they have

to pay for medical coverage expel from their will to be less. definition use more than thirty four hours that we don't hear definition lauren is thirty hours away huh so and that's on average sourcing company saying my god i don't know i don't want these employees working an average of thirty hours they cut it down to twenty five just to be safe right so that's what's going on that's you know all part of this trend towards part time employment towards lower wages salaries been stagnant yeah for quite a long time your learned absolutely and i want to get into that in a moment but first one thing that you were telling me earlier that i thought was very interesting is the types of jobs that have been created we're talking about part time jobs this kind of feeds into that because obviously in the b.l.s. reports we get every month they say what sectors added jobs last month i think it was retail and travel and leisure and some of the areas that we've seen to send

month after month but there's another way to look at these jobs that have been added and it's covered employment meeting the number of jobs that are covered. by unemployment insurance if you lose it and that is a number that's reported and you track it and what does that kate. tell us about the type of jobs that are lost or. covert employment i get reports periodic they actually been getting them every month now from a guy named jim wallace does a great job send me some charts i expect to have some more charts out next week i'm covered employment is covered employment is the number of people who are working that actually have benefits they're actually covered by unemployment insurance so in other words if they lost their job would they get any unemployment benefits now as as as you're aware people like myself. are self-employed we have to pay yeah we have to pay unemployment insurance but if i lose my job and something

happens if i have no income coming out well i'm not eligible i can't receive unemployment benefits now is the number in two thousand and eight we had one hundred thirty and a half million roughly out of one hundred forty six million people were cover so one hundred thirty out of one hundred forty six million now we're down to. one hundred twenty five million in other words in the last four years we've lost sight and a half million to five and a half million people who no longer are covert why unemployment insurance is so either they're working. for themselves or self-employed and i'm mad i have to ask how many of these people are selling trinkets on e bay where they call you know the b.l.s. calls them up and says did you work any hours this week and they said yes i sold you know one trade get on e bay for two dollars will that her sense consider to be employed so here is

a trend here we've lost five million people that don't have any benefits and now we're instead of one hundred thirty million out of one hundred forty six million four years later here we are we're at one hundred twenty five billion that are coming. so we're going to three million and we're down another. employment for yours and that speaks to to what you can see factored into the jobs numbers which is how much money people actually are taking home when you mentioned wages and touched upon that we're going to get to it after the break but if you aren't covered if you don't have benefits you maybe are paying for health insurance out of pocket or you don't have it all but it's another one of those factors you can't quite quantify in the jobs numbers real quickly i do want to play because miss you talked about before that you know you can't put too much stock in these jobs numbers you can't put too much stock in look at a.t.p.

i have other guests that have said the same thing about g.d.p. or b.l.s. or whatever one area that some people have said is a good place to look for an economic indicator is the following i want to play a clip. you should look at wages look at real wages the per the amount of money that a person earns per hour it tells you whether his effort is paying off one should pay attention to standards of living at the very top the medium real income in other words inflation adjusted income of households would be probably a better measurement of whether the economy is doing well or not. so it's unlikely . i don't really see more but i know that was yesterday. or in a second what was more well over. what i had yeah you know and i welcome ball yeah and you know as well michelle when we get back from the break i want to hear you add to their and analysis i have to go to break real quick but when we get back

i'll have you talk more about wages we'll have more with mike shad lock in just a moment also still ahead you responded in rows and we'll read your viewer feedback and respond to you it is friday after all that at the end of the show but first the closing market numbers. the government no longer represents the belief. that people are going to take structure. but this isn't. the way our economic system please.

him.

and this is really going to take three years for charges three. three. three. three. old freeboard videos for your media project c.e.o. don carty dot com.

welcome back we're talking to mike said lot better known as mish about jobs because we have a new report out and there's so much that is in the fine print to be parsed that

can show us a better indication of where we really are so let's bring myself back in and before the break i played a couple of clips you name them accurately bill bonde or mark farmer talking about the importance of wages as an economic indicator better than than anything else do you agree that this is the best indicator of an economic recovery or lack there of . i think one needs to look at a number of things but certainly us but it this way that's a very good indicator and it's even worse than what those guys mentioned because there's skill involved here there are you know union workers who are getting above average wage hikes at least in comparison to everyone else the and certainly some upper echelon you know job workers are getting some you know pretty big hungry and graces and it's all average debt you still average all of that and the trends that are going down like that so what does that site that says you know

that there's a certain class there that perhaps not getting any wage hikes at all no no increase in their take home pay yet and another thing mark flaubert and and sharon and i'm sure they would agree with me on this you have to factor in taxes got illinois taxes my income taxes went up from three to five percent you know that's two percentage points were right out of my paycheck bubble and yet you know across the board sales taxes are going up look at california right now it's the post of the other day you're talking about a temporary tax and rates for something like going to seven or twelve they're going to grave you know temporary seven years right as. dax's keep going up yeah that's not factored into the c.p.i. up right so you know we don't get wages you know. groceries you go to the grocery store always suddens and so you're paying six percent per on tax and groceries well you're panicking yeah yeah and you know that's two percent that's your in the

might be your entire salary right just going up you know increase taxes right so you know that's not factored into c.p.i. that's not it's back there down to real wages there to say oh you know your wages were this last year well what about your benefit what about. or you. were. right sir. for all member. real wages declawing right much more seriously than the reported so it looks like and there are words of one going to go yeah i can joke i guess so you're saying it's worse than even the report shows and i can show what the report indicates let's take a look at the b.l.s. tells us has been happening to wages so these are average hourly earnings the year on year change and the change of the increase year on year has been declining it was one point one percent last month and it's been on decline since december of two

thousand and eight so that's less than inflation it's not keep wages are not keeping up with inflation you bring up the question so are you is this a recovery for exactly because some people are seeing their wages stagnate some people are still seeing their wages increase and that gets into this issue of income inequality in this country what do you think is really behind it. well we know what's behind us at least i do but a lot of them as a lot of the breaks in the economic sphere is as to whether it has as in all kinds of body there is but it's really very simple it's it's it's all the effects of inflation and i'm by inflation here i'm talking about increase in money supply the fed steps to you know gives money to the banks who benefits from that the people that have first access to money are the ones that benefit the most the people that have assets are the ones that benefit well so who is not an accurate is that he's doing this to you to increase jobs well where are that we've had roughly five

trillion instead be less i don't call it stimulus but it's a visible deficit you know who you know if i was to about asked mine. who are five years ago would five trillion in instead of us have better not i think he probably would have sent us that's what we had is we are truly in a class deficits everywhere you know where to go who benefited from all that and how it went and said you know ridiculous schemes in an energy that are now bankrupt under obama it you know raised you get in wages bought you know to paper those union wages. prices were not a tax on excited admitting unions are still clamoring for more money you got all these factors but what this all was balls around fractional reserve lending and debility for banks to lend to light right the people with her stacks system money and the wealthy are the ones that benefit yeah those rates of the party one more

point mark those rates are the party that was the last enron on credit look at the housing bubble look at what happened in two thousand and six when finally average a lot of access to credit while they got into the housing bubble exactly the wrong time they got murdered by and meanwhile. well you have people like. old missouri look cashed out of countrywide financial one billion in stock options over your years and a company with nearly one hundred how's that for growing inequality and it's all predicated on lose money and who has access to it and i love the way you put it those first of the party make out really well as those last to the party they get really crushed just to show one more chart before we go we can show what that decline in year over year increases in wages looks like next to the year over year increase in jobs and they're moving in opposite directions and as you indicate mish there is just so much more behind these numbers that can even be factored in mike

said locke thanks so much for being on the show he's investment advisor at sic a pacific capital management and our go to jobs guy. pleasure to be on the show a. good measure. all right let's wrap up with your feedback because it's friday and we haven't done this for a while so we talked about catastrophe bonds in the wake of superstorm sandy and sean lacka writes i wouldn't have a heart to bet on a disaster that could affect many lives it's the same reason i don't have a heart to speculate on food prices and of course this brings up a lot of conspiracy theories about whether control and manipulated profit and what not i do want to clarify that as far as my understanding is of catastrophe bonds

with the guess we spoke to what you're talking about is actually the opposite of these catastrophe bonds that we're talking about in the event of a major catastrophe you do not get paid on your bond or the value of your bond erodes in terms of the principle so you aren't actually betting on a disaster so to speak in fact it would seem that you would rather you would want them to not happen but hey who knows maybe there's a day when they're collateralized and you can short them i mean that's kind of were a financial innovation has gone in the past i don't know but i hear you about food speculation also publicly traded defense companies i think are treacherous and not same kind away so i appreciate your comment also we mulled over the misuse of disaster funds on the japanese tsunami disaster relief by the government and i had said yes but you hear the same stories with nonprofits with them misusing money and grad made a key distinction grad said i can stop paying nonprofits well i cannot stop paying ransom to the government and so i thought that was

a really good point fair enough ok you can you can give to a nonprofit you don't decide if you give money to the government but yet if they make. you know you're helpless now we talked about the merits of price gouging post sandy and ken wrote personally fifty dollars bags of ice are not ok but i sure as heck don't want the police state to come in and say that today fifty dollars bags of ice are not ok and tomorrow forty dollars bags of ice are not ok and you know i'm really glad you made the distinction because you may think something is immoral or disagree with it it doesn't mean you think the government should come in with in this case price controls and do something about it so that was what we were trying to get to and i'm glad that you summed it up one street legal aid wrote same old same old from capital account what i want to know is what would happen next on main street in the us if the federal reserve did as lauren and mr bonner want and withdrew q.e. liquidity support from wall street it's ok for capital account to argue the theoretical case for free market capitalism i do get it but i think there's also

a duty to explain what would happen tomorrow if the us state intervention ended altogether today please address this issue you bring up a good point if you withdrew all government support right away you would probably have a collapse so big that people would become so distressed that the state would fill the vacuum again only this time the intervention would be worse than we've ever seen this is our guess therefore we do agree with you that it is it wise to withdraw all support all at once simply because it would open the door to more state intervention the reality is that we've gone so far down this road of statism and credit ism over decades that there really is no pleasant solution this is why we focus so much of our attention on encouraging people to take action in their own lives because most of the bad stuff may already be baked into the cake now long ago where two rights lauren is a non us citizen ita long time no idea that you have more than two guys running for president i hear us people say i will not vote i understood there must be

a law that without enough votes the election is invalid or people say i will write ron paul in why don't people just vote for another party i don't under. the ignorance of the media to mention the others are you sure us citizens know about the alternatives there are few issues more than i can get into in thirty seconds as to why the two party political system really has this stranglehold i mean there are barriers to getting on the ballot as a third party candidate raising a lot of money for elections is essential in the us to being winning president and third party candidates have a hard time raising it because as far as history investing in another candidate a third party candidate has really delivered the returns as far as donors of course democrats and republicans have a vested interest in the status quo and use their money and influence to advance it and you bring up the point of the mainstream media you don't really see third party candidates covered by the mainstream media but you can see them covered here i do want to mention that monday night there is a third party candidate debate airing on r t at nine pm and tom hartman who has a show on the network will host a political panel at eight g three seven one to two rights by having guests like

bill bomber jim rogers karl denninger etc on your show it's driving me to be criminally insane all they do is make sense you know y'all could be held legally liable for this i sure hope we do i sure i sure hope we are held liable because that's what we're here for and that's all we have time for today that's it for our show thank you so much for watching make sure to come back tomorrow and in the meantime you know you can follow me on twitter out lauren lyster you can like us on our facebook page to give us feedback on our show and you missed it you tube dot com slash capital account watch us in h.d. on hulu and from everyone here thank you for watching have a great weekend and a great night.

to be soon which right. from fans to question. these claims stunts on t.v. dot com. i'm in sochi but know his city in europe i'm the host of the twenty four team which are the picket. thank you. so much. dr. friday's a. sitcom. suzie it's so true.

international rights and international law we should not bomb iran we need to cut the budget and bring the troops all we should end the war in afghanistan tomorrow. persecutor said. let's all. let's split feel the patriot act. we speak the language such. as programs in documentaries in arabic in school here on all t.v. reporting from the world's hot spots of ethiopia interviews intriguing stories for you to. enjoy all te arabic to find out more visit arabic don't all teeth don't call me.

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