look the pine martin. is in the middle of a swamp only accessible by air transport in the summer months and winter a path is clear blue dogs it's inhabited by siberian a large muslim minority that migrated head before the russians. and this. israel siberia maybe not the stuff of tourist brochures but distinctive enough to show that after all these years cyber is still not quite like anywhere else. oh involvement on the money with the business of russia is a business down here a little crude facts an energy strategy is the world's energy markets are changing

reflecting new production and consumption patterns new technologies are also in play how does russia fit in to. discuss this i'm joined by chris weaver chief strategist with spare bank investment research and jacob now he's the chief economist for russia at morgan stanley or a gentleman place or mark our first segment here i'm going to give you a few issues with your first reaction euro zone crisis gets a lot worse before we get it fixed progress through crisis and an attempt to relate to the other side of the german electrical cliff i think will be avoided but at the last minute we're going to go over but then they'll be a deal emerging markets outperform next year yes i agree for next year china and when you do in the landings already happened and we've got more policy stimulus if things get worse yeah i think the new government will be keen to ensure the stability and some modest growth so you agree russia's political risk isn't one there isn't one it's diminished massively since

a year ago japan japan i think struggling. stimulus measures coming up after the next government takes over and sam bursts of more positive for an extra pair i can't see an exit. global equity markets where is the smart money going i think is what money is going into emerging markets in particular country. greece countries. i think i think all emerging markets as an asset class get from flows showed to people that investors are switching money heavily into emerging markets since melissa tambour almost a lot of his going into asia right now because of china i think next year we'll see a reversion back into the in the in lead time to last a bit in the last couple or oil prices oil prices sustain because the conflict in the middle east probably for most of next year under threat probably from two thousand and fourteen onwards rangebound wheat global growth means that we don't look at a rise much but saudis producing at its historic highs and they committed to one hundred dollars so it's not going to fall either right thank you gentlemen now

let's have a look at russia's energy patch. women are just officers well gas and bring you both russia has them all it is home to would largest natural gas reserves the second largest reserves the largest oil reserves and the world's second largest renewable energy producer and common sense would suggest that countries with huge will and gas resources crisper or at least before him better than those without such natural wealth but meenie were in the world to have a lead on their energy world drives up prices and cost growth will drive itself through investment and makes manufacturing uncompetitive classic symptoms of what it's called dodge disease however russia has stabilized will and gas production while managing to avoid all of this malady and the reaction to the recent deal between rosneft and t. and t. b.

is a further evidence of this significance. this is a very good sign for the international market for the international energy market it's another confirmation of the trust of our partners in the work of the russian market it's a huge positive deal that is important not just for russia's energy sector but for the entire russian economy the global energy map is changing in a dramatic fashion the international energy agency has recently published its what energy outlook two thousand and twelve it projects the world demand for energy resources more than triple by twenty to thirty five and sixty percent of those growth will be concentrated in china india and the middle east with almost ninety percent of middle eastern oil flowing to asia the us iraq is said to become the second largest oil producer and the lead in all supplier to china the world's leading edge of storage it says the u.s. is on course to replace sold you already or as a largest oil producer by around twenty twenty the united states which currently

imports around twenty percent offered startle engineer. is predicted to become all but self-sufficient in that sounds dramatic reversal of the energy transfer seen in most of the energy imports and can trace much of these is based on unconventional methods of fracturing site or shale rock see all projects are hotly debated and how much oil can be exploitive and how fast the plans heavily on the price of oil and how easy it is to overcome objections to all fracking that i was there with what you order to get shale gas you must drill horizontally incessant cap and that means the profit margin of the process gets lost very fast with a silencer put up in russia is well guess who launched the project to develop shell oil and even build the reserves before i twice as large as those of conventional oil the price of the extraction is many times higher in the global energy map is changing with potentially far reaching consequences and you monkeys and tree and

profoundly transform the world geopolitics that is your national on the money. ok and now we're also joined by dmitri lucas of he's head of oil and gas at v.p. b. capital and simon fantom fletcher portfolio asset manager with renaissance asset managers simon if i can go to you right now what is the main driver of the global energy market right now and think in terms of russia its role well i mean the engine market as i was just told in the report is shifting fundamentally more towards asia as a commodity vacuum. for russia's in russia's benefit in many many ways obviously the vast majority of russian energy exports are going to europe europe is in a substantial recession possibly going to go on for many years asia will be the next vacuum for russian energy exports and dimitri is going to you know i mean there seems to be a major shift in going on here is russia is it

a net win for russia or or a net negative how do you see it going for. a word over the next two decades for example well next you could say it's a really long horizon probably i can talk about a little bit shorter but definitely the growing demand in there is obviously beneficial for russia and. the sort of difficult for me to imagine how it could be negative for a short. ok chris i mean in what way i mean this is there's a benefit here there's huge demand out there and we look at china and we look at india here but is that good for russia's oil sector energy sector in general look i think you you really have to step back and put a question mark over the extent of future oil demand growth in asia in the middle east the i.a.e.a. reports to which your prefer to. talk about very strong growth in conventional energy supplies in the u.s. shell oil shale gas that's we all know you're right about this for a long time but it is good with that it is now growing though that it is real

numbers the the u.s. for example has added over a million and a half barrels of new oil in the last couple of years so it's now really happening but the idea is assuming that all that extra oil demand for oil production sorry is going to be absorbed into asia they're essentially expecting to china india middle east will grow their annual oil imports by more than a million barrels a day you know almost forever but i think that's a huge assumption to make because you know it for example if china were to start developing its own shale oil and gas resources then they would wouldn't need that imports if we were to get any substitution towards other alternative energy cetera so i think it's a huge risk to rely on this you know never ending growth in demand for energy from china and when you think about that i mean is yeah well we it's a broad picture here but there's a lot of ifs and buts yeah and you know we're in the business of doing forecasts chris and i and we know when you when you start pushing it out five ten fifteen

twenty years there's so many are knowns that it's difficult to have confidence about a single point forecast what's going to happen with technology with electric cars what's going to happen with you know costs of unconventional oil at the moment they're very homely which kind of puts a floor on the oil price but could that change over time we don't know i think over the. five years we can say russia sitting in a good position because there's not much spare capacity in oil opec or saudi are committed to one hundred dollars floor and russia has shown that the predictions of fast decline from where siberia have not been proven right productions continue to edge up year on year so russia has a reasonably good stable prospect for the next two to five years and beyond that russia's got some upside as well as the downside the upside is in the passion of sweet that some people have talked about the unconventional resources in russia and of course that great unknown which is still fifteen years out of the arctic and

whether it's enormous can be realized offshore you know so many it there's still a lot of investors are skittish about russia because of its lack of diversification away from energy and then we hear this energy story of huge demand that mean how do you how do we maneuver this how does russia maneuver this. russia traitor severe this massive discount to its western peers and also to other emerging market peers the market market prices in a substantial risk within russia i'd like to go back just one second and let's just go back a hundred years i mean the world got its energy from coal and wood and in the next twenty years as rightly said i think the major risk to russia is the technological risk if the if the u.s. if the u.s. has five dollars a gallon of gasoline then it will innovate out of our out of an oil problem that's that's the significant risk to russia and that's that's that's the way that most investors see it dimitri you know it when you look at the pressures oil patch energy patch in general is big good or is it good for competition is this again

it's a criticism of russia's energy sector. you know has to follow would lead to mention the one pretty important a shared russia russia has playing kill who are plenty of conventional oil just to amuse sounds very sure. about us per day you know it is there it is just ten times. but it's worth war so we kill a lot of conventional oil before we get to the point where united states decided to go to show we need to get a car another fifteen billion tonnes of could. take another twenty years so far far away from a point where we need to think about a show or before we go to chris i want to ask you i mean again i mean this diversification if you can is something the people i have lived here for fifteen years and we've been talking about for fifteen years sure look i mean everybody knows the four most dangerous words in english language are it's different this time i think it's quite clear that you know the pressures are building you know

like the what i'm hoping is that we're now seeing what may eventually be seen as some sort of an economic tandem or in the one hand it's quite clear the state is intending to have you know big energy sector we see it with rust no t.i.n.k. you know under state controlled regulated industry you know that industry clearly is going to remain you know a major part of the state's portfolio and a big part of the whole economy but on the other hand it doesn't preclude what we hope will be now faster reforms and more effective efforts to develop the broader economy new industries the services industries etc you know for example industries that might grow on the back of w.t. your membership which might be happening here we're going to go with a short break and after the break we'll continue our discussion on russia's energy sector stain.

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i welcomed back to on the money i'm peter all of our two budget we're talking about russia's energy sector ok gentlemen and i have to go back to you what would be the optimal energy strategy for russia now make it ten years now mark twenty years now but what do you know what's going to work and what they need to change and i want to also look at equities here in investing in the energy sector as well and if i had a crystal ball that looked at ten years i'd probably not be sitting in this chair. but i mean in all honesty russia the diversification away from europe is critical we were saying we're seeing russia still trying to build new pipelines into across that the north stream into into the u.k. possibly i mean should we really should be focusing on asia where substantial

substantial growth will still happen we when you've got countries growing between five and seven percent in asia maybe not sustainable as we've heard earlier but that still substantial growth as opposed to europe which is experiencing negative growth and looking at five or ten years it will probably take almost take that long to recover from the euro so euro zone recession. if if there's so much demand out there going forward what is the likelihood of russia will just say hey you know we've got lots of resources here to export you know and you know dutch disease in things like this i mean is there the political will because i mean political cycles you know all came rushing out six years ok and united states it's four but i mean when you're looking for the route that takes a lot of guts well i think you could have you could have your cake and eat it to a certain extent i think you're going to get this diversification. of the economy because you don't have the prospects of the oil sector driving growth in the way it did in the two thousands prices rose volumes rose and you've got this sort of six

to eight percent growth for a decade on the back of that now we're in a world in which the argument is are we going to have plateau all. all right i'm going because i want to talk about peak oil market but all we are we going to are we going to stay with you know all production roughly where it is or will it fall so that's not going to be a source of growth but russia wants to grow it aspires to catch up and we convert right us and so you've got this new investment policy that the president's talking about entry privatization improving the investment climate to try and make investment increased investment in more effective investment the driver of growth in the economy and that's good i think i think that's a sensible policy and it doesn't preclude trying to expand your export group routes expand your supplies to asia both oil and gas that can co-exist with it dimitri is the russian government doing the right thing for foreign energy companies to come into russia is there enough room and no corporate governance except rick cetera.

partially i think it would be better government simpler that there are international private companies and russian private companies to participate participate in the new other plans of part of the course or on standalone basis. to participate danger and to ensure this where you russian state company has. not been mission at all so at least the direction is a smaller three than the more likely the same question to you yes no i think you agree with demon it would be better clearly if it was more open but at least now the rules of the game are clearer to use that cliche compared to say just two thousand cliche when you look at the two thousand you know exactly you know now people know what to expect so yeah and so we're seeing companies like exxon i guess a good example historically they've all been very vocal about why they wouldn't come into russia because of the uncertainty you know they are the are parking rust and i've been in the arctic so i think that those reflect how your industry now sees and can better assess what's going on in russian are willing to participate

but i think in general one point i would like to make an english to energy policy i think it's in more in relation to gas i think that's one area where russia clearly is dragging its field feet and you know without any doubt the market is moving more towards more portable gas the words l.n.g. and here we are building you know about to build south stream another big expensive gas pipe directly into europe rather than concentrating on more l.n.g. which would give us more global global position of more flexibility so that's one thing we would definitely like to see in relation to energy policy completion. yeah no i think l. and g. makes a lot of sense i find it difficult to see the case for building south stream because we've. already got more export capacity to europe than it's exporting gassy have to have quite an optimistic view on future growth in in gas exports or feel that i missed the view about ukraine or pessimistic view about ukraine that's true but still it seems like a lot of money to put on the back of an unclear demand forecast. much better i

think to expand the eastern route where south korea and japan pay a big premium to european prices for energy ok simon let's talk about peak oil i mean again this these reports that have come out recently about demand i mean how does that change our understanding of peak oil because i've been fascinated by it because every few years it's there's a new theory about peak oil i mean literally i mean it seems every every other month there's a new new report so and we cannot there's a little bit more there's a little bit more and they just i am i've become a little bit confused myself over what is what is really people now how much can we actually get out of these things and we were supposedly west you know western siberia supposedly on the decline and yet every year we little bit more and. i think the geologists need to go sharpen their pencils a little bit. dimitri where do you come you know on the peak oil issue. i am not to really believe in these theory and i believe still

a lot of oil and underground that we are going to learn more and more hard to extract so again. more familiar than what the words we have in russia and we are far far away from this point chris well actually go back to jacob saying earlier about technology and you know we've been listening to peak oil arguments for you know for decades fifty or sixty years and what's always been running is the technology changes we are able to extract more oil in more efficient use that cetera and i don't see that changing frankly i think that technology is still the big issue the only reason i would expect you know peak oil to be a valid concern is if we were to get this very strong growth in demand from a just the i.a.e.a. is looking for and we didn't get the growth and cher lloyd that's expected then maybe we might run into it but but frankly there's so many ifs and buts there i wouldn't put any money in peak oil. real issue at all because the price rises more oil becomes commercial to develop so you know and we have the arctic you know lots of unconventional oil it's change gears gentlemen the cycle. some of the global

issues here let's go to the u.s. fiscal cliff jake of yeah i think we're probably going to go over it i think that you know you've got quite entrenched positions between the house republicans and the white house over raising taxes in particular will go over the cliff but then probably they'll be a deal in the first quarter of some sort you know but the white there's a very wide range of uncertainty there are base cases that will have a one and a half percent of g.d.p. tightening fiscal policy rather than the five percent that's written into the current budget arithmetic so that's going to be enough to keep growth in the u.s. just positive whereas if we have the full five percent we're going to full blown recession in the u.s. which of course will hit the rest of the world too chris you know i think this whole issue is going to run right up to the end of march because not only do we have fiscal cliff and the end of this year but we also have the the incredibly new agreement on two thousand and fourteen budget on debt policy and agreement to

really to raise the debt ceiling all of which roll into february march so i think this whole issue is going to remain unresolved right through to the end of first quarter and i think that creates a very volatile and uncertain backdrop for all markets and mother it's more of the same risk on risk of at least as we get into the spring because of these issues so i mean where do you come in on this i mean really is it the titanic we are all just arguing over the seats on the on the top deck now i mean the fiscal cliff has been having significant impact already and me if you just look at us cap ex numbers are significantly down and he says that this is a worrying thing so c.e.o.'s. of major u.s. companies have been have been paring back on on planning on investing and on hiring u.s. labor market let's not forget that is is recovering extremely slowly so the fiscal cliff is already having a major impact i agree with the two guys before i think it will go probably go into the first quarter where you know they have the debt ceiling and the debt ceiling what will we will be breached in about march so that that that will be that's that

. ultimate line but there's been conflicting noises coming from that from the republicans in the house even though they've signed up to the new increase in taxes . there will definitely be compromise i mean all they have to somebody now to do yes ok dimitry it's talk about russia's growth story here i mean we'd end the year around three point three percent three point five percent what are you looking at next year for g.d.p. growth for russia considering everything we've said about oil prices fiscal cliff. may done see car there's a group of might be accelerated in the future interesting year of near future take into consideration all restraints on political and economic issues so i would expect something similar or even slower for the next year chris where we're going with three and a half percent g.d.p. growth next year we take the view that you know that the central bank has learned a lot of lessons finance ministry from two thousand and eight in a much more flexible currency policy you know we almost see free floating against

your price now which text about just within the budget is enough resources you know to keep kind of current spending in place and that that budget spending can kind of keep the domestic story but you know within a narrow range it also of course handcuffs it means that without reforms much we can't even think about four to five percent g.d.p. growth again but we can look at three three now for the next couple of years three in three and a half not bad in the yeah it's really bad but i think well we're going to slow down a little bit next year because i think i see policy tightening both from the budget side where the new fiscal rule means that we're going to have a slowdown in budget spending growth next year and on the monetary side where i think the central banks committed to inflation targeting and it will perhaps hike a couple more times in the next in the next few months as inflation rises further above target so a bit of military tightening but a fiscal tightening a bit of a slowdown in growth just above three percent so i mean what your what your prognosis you know i'm probably slightly or slightly lower than the previous guys.

you know i probably said to him after three i mean agree in a fiscal tightening is almost inevitable it's certainly going to be slowing down the europe europe going into a prolonged recession as well more than likely happening is not going to benefit russia at all so yeah i see a slowing down in growth but remember if we got two and a half percent growth it wasn't so long ago we had five from five to two and a half feels like recession anyway ok and political risk chris going into the new year you know i don't see any issues right now i think there's a lot you read the media there's a lot of political risk saying i don't like the media i walk around the streets and i just don't see it i think you know if we are going to talk about political i mean look at the next political event we're going might have something to talk about the next september when we get to regional elections and the election of the new mascot governor accepted so make a bit more exciting to my kids exciting ok many thanks to my guests and thanks to our viewers for watching us here i'm on the money see you next time and stay with

our. you know how sometimes you see a story and it seems so for lengthly you think you understand it and then you glimpse something else and you hear or see some other part of it and realize everything you thought you knew you don't know i'm charming welcome to the big picture. and and.

little . me is eat eat eat eat eat eat eat eat

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