we have seen the strengthening of the rules we're looking at it right now against the dollar because he went down from three one six five to well by almost a ruble the exchange rate went went down and so basically this is continuing because companies right now also require a lot of rubles on their balance sheets because it's the end of the fourth quarter they need to pay that taxes and therefore they are selling their currency and moving into the ruble right but many companies also have to pay out their foreign debt at the end of the year and that's one of the factors leading to a weaker ruble actually that is true that is probably the strongest factor right now balancing the positive factors for the russian ruble because indeed this is the peak of of the season when when you're paying your foreign debt for companies but not necessarily because companies don't just borrow at the beginning of january promising to repay at the end of the year it's kind of progress for the whole year but there are other factors involved which are also pointing to

a stronger ruble and therefore i'm going for that i'm betting my money on that actually keeping keeping it mostly in rubles and that is also well shopping where in the christmas season all of the shopping and traveling season people basically selling. their foreign currency savings moving into the roubles in order to spend more and also we've got the long holidays for the traders if you remember the eighth of january is going to be closed and therefore traders do not want to risk it because other markets will be trading though probably be pulling out in the final two days this year that's twenty some twenty years right but there is an ongoing debate about what's actually better for the big picture for the russian economy you know. what basically what's your take on the whether or not it should be a weak ruble or a strong well you know for the two of us as you know regular russian citizens taxpayers what's best is

a stable ruble where for inflation doesn't go anywhere we don't really risk losing all savings if the ruble goes through week but for the time being apparently there are pros and cons for everything basically for the full week or ruble would be much better for the government at the moment because we need to balance the budget probably not in the beginning of this year but next year to be will free probably a weakening of the rebuild because we can rebuild means exporting companies like ross knew from gas from get more. dollars that they would see selling their products to get more rubles and therefore they pay more taxes and it's easier to balance the budget but a stronger ruble of course leads to economic growth in the so we have we have it all about. well it's an ongoing debate that's for sure and david ritter madame co. thanks and we'll have the fresh ruble figures soon as we look at the markets and just a couple of minutes. now moving on the total cost of this year's global

catastrophe is roughly one hundred forty billion dollars that's according to a reinsurance company swiss re bad weather conditions are responsible for most of these tragic events that mainly took place in the united states that of course includes hurricane sandy and the drought that hit the states in the second half of twenty twelve twenty three is to live an area calculations show that insurance companies will cover at least half of these costs that's about sixty five billion dollars and that's a lot less than in two thousand and eleven one insurers had to dish out one hundred twenty billion dollars due to record earthquakes and flooding in the asia pacific region and in south america. spain defaulting oil falling to fifty dollars a barrel and the dax plunging more than thirty percent sacks of banks out regis

predictions for next year like an economic apart pocalypse the danish investment bank has published its unofficial predictions for next year it says they're pretty unlikely but they'll send shock waves through the global markets if they materialize now we're talking to the chief economist of saxo bank mr yakob thanks a lot for joining. me in basically your outlook for next here is shockingly negative what are your main concerns in terms of economic and political events here. i think first of all it's pretty important to stress that this is not a fish of youth a next year every year for the last ten years we made these ten regions cold switch one by one if any of them materialize could be upsetting the financial status quo

so but in line of that i would say my main concern for next year is actually to do with the social tension i think it's kind of ironic that we ending two thousand and twelve with the highest stock market valuation since across a start it mean was at the same time we have unemployment rate at an all time high meaning that the one percent is really benefiting from this crisis while the ninety nine percent is still seeing low disposable income and no optimism at all but you do say that even if one of your predictions actually materializes it will be pretty catastrophic for the global economy so that begs the question which one is the most likely to materialize them. well fortunately i don't know which of the ten could be potentially most likely but i say my opinion that something like china against the hong kong dollar with the us will be very likely i think china increasingly wants to play it on their own they see themselves as the dominant force the odd dominant force in the world and i think the rhetoric versus japan but

also the u.s. is increasingly hot and the tone of the u.s. is increasingly hot and its own in asia which is mimicking what we've seen in europe so i think one of those and a step towards to be very likely but i remain of the opinion that social tension rule come back in two thousand and thirteen and that could be the one incident of one event that changes the financial landscape which right now i have to say is the most optimistic seen since one thousand nine hundred ninety there's not a single analyst on wall street who thinks as and he's going to be down next year and the average six big to return for it produces twenty three and twenty percent next year so having said that you know we've put the really really high inches expected asian almost as high as we put it low for twenty twelve and maybe that is what we need to be on the outlook for what about russia any major catastrophes here . i don't think i think the of the ten predictions we made of course that energy prizes energy level comes down to is what will impact mostly the

domestic economy in russia i think roger is in a position where we can need to continue to see the handover from the one trick pony of the resource economy we need to see some sort of a freeing up we need to see increased competition and certainly we need to see that the economies is open up more to the rest of the world you need competition domestically in russia for a number of reasons but i don't see any aspiring catastrophic seams for russia but i think you have to calculate the fact that energy prices over the next ten years could be going down on average and not as it has been in the last twenty years well you mention fifty dollar oil prices how likely is that i would be a catastrophic event for russia. it would probably and i think it's very likely because i think what will happen is that this year twenty twelve was really about how gas became a very big part of oil production and electricity generation in the u.s.

right now you're producing electricity at ten year low prices juicer the fact that you substitute the crude and called into natural gas which is in the u.s. straits a ten year low prices u.s. is gaining competition competitive advantages from this and i think all it will be very very difficult for russia but also the middle east to adjust to discretely quickly enough in order to accommodate what will be a much much lower revenue income stream. steve of sun of saxo bank now let's look at run through the markets first the currencies here in moscow the russian ruble ended the session weaker to the euro and stronger to the dollar which reflects the euro dollar dynamic as you can see there on the equity markets wall street is mixed this hour the dow is slightly below the line as you can see just slightly below and that's as investors show their disappointment in the latest housing numbers the nasdaq is gaining as lawmakers continue to discuss the fiscal

cliff threat and the ways to avert it over in europe equities posted games on wednesday closing at eleven and nineteen month high i should say thanks mainly to the german business confidence report that showed it jumped more than analysts anticipated and here in russia the indices were mixed at the end of the day the my six finished the day down just ever so slightly and the r.t.s. closed in the block and up next on our team. talks to economist and author lawrence braun about the failings of the u.s. financial system you occupy movement and china's economic outlook.

remains a mystery even for specialists how a voice can produce several sounds it warms to do lenience the art of throat singing comes naturally picked up like a language. a language of communicating with nature it said that's where throat singing originates from the unions believe not only animals but also all surrounding objects like reverse forests and defense don't have souls imitating the sounds they believe can capture the power of nature. was. there are special instruments that accompany the singing give gainey says there is even a legend about his instrument a gill it says once there lived a poor shefford who had the best horse that won every competition but jealous

people killed it on the horse was revived as an instrument. of stop the fall is going on the spirits of the horse came to his dream and said make an instrument from the tree the sounding board from the leather on my face the strings. and to remember me make an engraving of my head part of the instrument he did so i called the instrument again which means come back and this melody only instrument is called. to fly as one of the most famous groups in the republic there are. let's go this detour broad they say for you are opinion since difficult to pick up and sing so i asked them to teach me and see if i can do it little you cierra. chen oh you. did that was sure to say can you know who

it was you think gang r o. but now it is a moody part of the song and not the actual throat singing which i wouldn't even try to repeat. so maybe you have to be born here to be able to sing like this i thought so until i met my chooks like it vini and i don't even speak their language but she is from japan. most estefan monsour from two hundred years ago and feels happy here she's not planning a professional singing career but she keeps practicing just because it's become part of her nature.

laurence bram global activist author economist it's great to have you with us here today it's great to be here this is the global economic crisis broke out four years ago there's been so much effort. to put it back on track u.s. alone has been billions of dollars in bailouts it just doesn't seem to be able to take off why is it not picking up money as people used in the wrong way and they're using old ways to solve new problems and they're not coming up with new ways. we have you know q.e. stimulus what happens is the money goes into the tracks and because you would have no regulation between the banks and the investment banks the money is not being left to people in communities are starting to use to reinvigorate you know the

heartland of america it's going basically to the investment bankers were goes through the hedge funds and it goes into asian stock markets and commodities like oil and it creates inflation in china that's what's happening and it's not addressing the problem so it's creating more doubt. and it's a it's a bad conundrum. what we really need in america is we need to reinvigorate our infrastructure our invest infrastructure is really really behind and there's a kind of self-denial about this i think we really need to think about maybe some more more balanced economics. reinvestment into infrastructure education core businesses investment policies fiscal policies are going to bring investment into america bring production back into the country and in turn be able to have you know we are banking for real people so people can borrow money and

start real businesses even if it's a small business it doesn't have to be globalized it can be something in your town even learning from examples of micro finance and we need these kind of approaches and small view faceted it's not model dimensional and that is what's being done now it's a modern dimensional approach bernanke is basically buying the debt by printing money this is my sustainable if you don't do this the u.s. dollar is going to depreciate more against the currency we in turn are not making ourselves competitive again we are just are shoring the wealth concentration among the elite banking financial institutions well i mean you talk about financing and banking and obviously that global financing being a very complicated game played out by the non-serious very often in concerned with what the government but really the main street people have nothing to do with it

and know nothing about the process is there a taking place there how can they protect themselves or they can't and that's why we have a downfall we've had this whole pattern of we've called you know neoliberal system of globalization outsourcing of jobs and what you've had is you've had a complete gutting of the industries an american. and in turn the communities and capital has flowed out it has been again concentrated with the financial sector the financial sector is the wealth driving sector so actually throughout the ninety's the past two decades as investment one coloe ball people corporations were seeking polo bull markets the whole thing was not really. cost effective production was more about trying to raise stock prices and the source of wealth was not the actual industry in supply chains it was actually the stock

market itself this was where the wealth was supposed to be generated from and just didn't work it was a house of cards and so when it collapsed collapsed badly and you need to part i lost. weight. when it suddenly rose was the talk of the town everyone was just talking about it and. died out are you disappointed i think it died off for several reasons for tactical reasons by think we have to look at the origin of the movement to understand why it died off and it was very much connected with movements it began in tunisia in twenty eleven and spread throughout europe the in the in the arab spring sure all these movements were alternately connected. while they were basically a global middle class revolution i mean why people took to the streets in cairo is because they were actually middle class who were being squeezed out by the concentration of power within the elite. and they themselves were not able to make

ends meet so you have a situation in the world right now where eighty percent the world's population is facing high income gap differential where people are joining the lower end as opposed to taking in the middle class to be able to have them. or balanced social structure and so you had it occupied. something that was quite fantastic it was really the total spectrum of america coming out in the street and it was not what much of the mainstream corporate media depicted they depicted as a hippie thing derelict these are you know losers who don't have this isn't no homes this is not the case at all or why did you die out because the problems that led to the rise hadn't gone away exactly the problems were not being addressed by the movement the movement was on able to articulate very specific demands i think

the reason for this was the movement itself didn't want demand there were so many people in the street there was such a broad cross-section that they didn't want to alienate anybody the thing about the missed opportunity if occupy was at that point in time they had so much momentum it could have become a political party do you think if occupy had a leader possibly if they had a leader or if they had really i think it's less about the individual leader because part of the nature of the movement was it was almost pantomime part of my normal satirizing american politics our politics in america is personality based it's not issue based people vote for personalities and you have an almost cartoonish development of the two political candidates in the presidential election which draws our trucks voters or certain voters in a way was a protest against the refusal to have leadership was you know. a

protest against the nature of our own political system and the refusal to have even a very tied to group come up with a platform having the general assembly total transparency was you know beautiful in itself because it was really saying ok our political system is not. it's powered it's all obvious it's all behind the scenes but actually here we're going to be totally transparent so it was a fantastic pantomime it was you know i really want to say it was installation art from coast to coast criticizing the political system but it was not able to take the next step to actually change that system and i think this was this was the failing of the movement to think there could be another chapter like occupy the white house or occupy the federal reserve or that would have very much because you know this is a move to also from wall street to zuccotti park so they were actually moved to

a neutral ground and of course the key issue of a political protest is being able to stop them means of capital or production and the only cases of sexually happened was in oakland where they were able to stop the ports and i was very symbolic and ultimately i think what would support many people would gather support from many people across america is if we have a third political party if we had a for political party if you had five political parties well now with those u.s. and europe really underperforming canonically at this point all eyes are at china on you know when people talk about china. it's usually. focusing on economic growth of china really overlooking how differently the chinese view the world all together. put aside the economy some even say that china doesn't have an ideology and you are a person who has lived there most of his life when you have spent several years

consulting chinese decision makers do you realize that this is kind of not having an ideology today the ideology is money that is the sole ideology i'd say from top to bottom that's what people are thinking that's what's on people's minds you have a system of hyper growth and the growth mentality has been also connected to the success mentality people in china judge their success they judge somebody by what brands they wear how many cars they have what the brand of the car is and and so you know you have a situation where i talk about you know it's the growth conundrum describe it as the beijing traffic i mean you once upon a time had people riding bicycles to get around town really easily but now you have so many ferraris and lamborghinis in gridlock traffic is what caught interactive parking lots nobody is moving and this is kind of reached this could be reaching

a saturation point and exactly having no ideology absence of ideology or the sole ideology being more money as you say how healthy is that eventually for the future of the country especially on the back of the political system that's at the standstill or is a very conservative political system i think it's not healthy and we have to look at what may be emerging in the new leadership there was a leadership transition at the party this past october and she jinping stepped in to take over from which and how and the sort of outgoing speech of hu jintao was concept of scientific development and that was real. only in a way enshrining this whole growth model that we can create social stability by making people happy by giving them more wealth by having more growth and more is better and in that whole party congress one word came out which is kind of huge in

ping's new new word in that ecological civilization not what does that mean maybe it means that we can have lots of cars but if we're breathing polluted air if we don't have clean water to drink we don't have a healthy lifestyle and so we could see yet to see what will happen but it's possible there could be a rethink on this growth model and i think the question right now people talk about the politics how are the politics of china evolve or change or be destabilized or can it continue to be stable i think the stability of chinese politics depends upon the sustainability of china's economy and that will be critical for the sustainability of the planet to use the local currencies like the rebel or the chinese one becoming reserve that's only this is the future because you have china's adopted a very different approach from what all the sort of world bank i.m.f. shocks therapists of have preached you know you have to have immediate foreign

exchange conversion are not going to that what they're doing is they're globalizing the renminbi currency and how they're doing is incrementally and first they have swap agreements with the neighboring countries have the currency in use and then they're going to be seeking to price in the end currency or in baskets of multiple currencies key commodities such as oil and so through this process and if there is a consistent dialogue with russia with other developed developed developing countries like brazil india there could be. the creation of multi basket currencies for pricing of commodities and also i think what's very important is the discussion it's very preliminary now is even the idea of a brick bank brazil russia india. china and south africa actually there should be

more players turkey indonesia vietnam should all be brought into this in creating really a development bank for the developing world run by people who have had to go through and face the real challenges of development not by. think tanks and people sitting in a very. elaborate tory type environment theorizing about development but actually those countries who have the expertise from facing the real challenges and having to deal with them. thank you very much for this interview thank you. wealthy british style.

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