only on the r.-g. dot com. the c. o n welcome to cross talk we're all things are considered i'm peter lavelle the italian people have spoken and they're deeply divided how does this bode for the euro and the brussels cash for austerity consensus as well as any plans for structural reform of the currency how long can the eurozone muddle through with high unemployment and recession particularly when voters punish very harshly anyone who goes for austerity. to cross not the euro crisis i'm joined by dylan matthews in washington he's a reporter for the washington post also in washington we have nicholas varan he is

a visiting fellow at the peterson institute for international economics and in london we crossed to david coburn he is a member of the u.k. independence party all right folks cross talk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage a deal and if i go to you first in washington political paralysis in italy what does this do for the ongoing euro crisis i mean is it making it far far worse doesn't make it better the one glimmer of hope for the euro. i suppose that can be taken from this is. the democratic party which is probably the most pro euro party won a majority in the lower house but mario monti the technocrat has been leading there at their probe russell's coalition for a while did not have a very good election to sign it. brokers are all very anti euro and so it seems likely that the democrats will either have to make a deal with that big rio or some of the other anti euro forces in the senate or else we're going to be seeing another election very soon which no one in particular

wants ok if i'm going to david in london i mean brussels most people really quite worried to say the least right now. i should hope this should be i mean quite frankly you could be about to win of probably four seats in the united kingdom knew you in the parliament here i think the italian people are just exacting their right to democratic vote i think they don't want to be ruled by an e.u. proconsul from brussels they want to make their own mistakes in their own decisions if they want to impose a stereotype they rather have an italian government imposing austerity rather than one sponsored by the european union nicholas is this a. verdict on austerity people have had enough now it's primarily a very addicted to tighten and put it good system so i think what we just heard from london is actually it's a bit the other way around the voters in italy have not expressed a nationalist into the sense that they prefer to be governed from rooms and from

brussels or just have said they're political i mean twenty five to doesn't want to five hundred saying they're going to lecture it could try to live with them vote we have a twenty five percent of the electorate voted for a referendum on the e.u. that's pretty significant isn't it. it's not only things i voted for they voted for systems that condenses all the parties that have traditionally by the seen in italy so this is a massive in a way radical revolutionary. system first and foremost of course there are elements about your sturdy. putting into question some of the you commitment this is obvious but if you want to go to the core of what happened this weekend in italy it's a pox on all houses of the italian political systems this is what it is about dylan would you agree with that but this is a european we're going to get a deal and perhaps into this is a pan-european what i think david is oversimplifying the somewhat in that that the referendum that figure and his coalition backs is not on membership in the e.u.

it's on membership in the euro and that's significant certainly and his cup to say with a monetary union should should trouble brussels it's not the same thing you're in the in the e.u. and not in the euro. and yes but i don't there's a european i'm going to be right and wouldn't be good because big real has called for go ahead nicholas go ahead david is right in this because big grillo has called for reexamining all the treaties ok david go ahead jump in this is a revolution throw your can to eight hundred forty eight where all the countries the people are revolting against the establishment and all those various countries from spain to greece to italy i also the u.k. and u.k. you have two political parties you have the liberals or conservatives and the labor party which is the establishment party and then those you can't which is the opposition and we are trying to change this country the way it's run people are

sick and tired of the establishment which have back to the european union and got us into the mess we're in dillon go ahead you want a reply that. sure i mean the thing i would say to david is that his his anti brussels' sort of movement is very. diffuse and not in agreement on a lot of other things i don't think many members of ukip would agree with those call for a twenty hour work week or for free tablet computers for all children or. i know of other sort of beyond beyond social democracy programs but which is just to say it was a really great was their right to be you know decisions are not decided by the european union we believe it should be that it's losers' only significant if the italians want to make a mistake and go against the market that's up to them it shouldn't be done to a european proconsul telling them what to do nicholas this the euro and democracy go together or they antithetical. yeah but.

the little i have to question them if you want either all of this is of course that is not either or ok so the question is you know because basically we can say european institutions are work in progress to change all the time so they can be improved. i don't either or i mean what the talons long basically and this is supported by all. means want to stay in europe this is a big difference between ukip and five star movement a five star movement is a movement of the young it is it is. including five star movement voters are culturally approved european and european federalists in general. are believed to ukip much older electorate there are much more protest that is there much more nationalistic and that you know if you look at any younger and they are culturally

viscerally on top european so these are very different movements are sometimes right but you cannot say that you keep in touch on human time letting commentary and support go ahead david know your kids have a libertarian support from the young and you can appeal very much to the young in the u.k. who do not like the european union they think is anti libertarian and they want to have their own say in the u.k. they don't want to be dictated to a bunch of school at all to call gentlemen in brussels who are basically a bunch of crooks and we see what the i have a job to do a. five star movement and you see the difference i mean there is a massive generational different doing you want to jump in there i was asking the question about the euro and democracy go ahead i think there is a tension with the existence of a monetary union and not a fiscal union and the ability of the institution to respond to the interests of of all citizens that there is when you have disparate fiscal policies put the united

currency some monetary policies are going to appeal to the german people some are going to appeal to the italian people and when you have independence and for banks that isn't too accountable to democratic forces it's really hard to dissolve those just to resolve those disputes and and i quibble way that makes sense to all parties i mean look i don't i think the differences as nicolas has been saying is. i will bet you any amount of money that if tomorrow an actual united states style federal fiscal system emerged in europe and italy was being flooded with money from germany the five star movement would be very much ok with that better than the difference between principled opposition in. using federal zation oh sure if you think it's impossible then that's obviously a salient factor but it's not i think your kid has a very well it's a bold opposition to these bureaucrats in brussels and i don't see that same kind of opposition and we also believe that the european union is unworkable we get

nothing against europe we very much want to work with with european countries but we want to free trade europe we want to be able to do deals and do business with them but we don't want to be ruled by bureaucrats in brussels i don't think anybody does i don't think the greeks do well that's chucking molotov cocktails around this is not a quiet disapproval of brussels it's quite a violent disapproval of brussels brussels seems to have managed to engender revolutions wrote europe i mean this may sound excitable but it's true i mean spend spend an hour in the us and then you would realise that the people who who threw a coat of caught those are not representative of the greek population so it's unfair to the greek public to describe this as a mainstream of greek deal and what's taken lives on business in greece and i can assure you that people get upset you sick to death of the european union there was great greece's only interest in the european union being a member of it and as it is it's only as long as they're getting money being transferred to keep their economies afloat otherwise they're not interested in what's wrong so what's the what's

a possibility of could taint interior if there's political deadlock in italy i mean i think that would not endure it or you to either but you see be your to brussels on that could hold the flow of payments that could make mario draghi less inclined but this is the third largest economy in europe if this is not greece. well it's not greece certainly not and i think that would be a significant form of resistance that might provoke some rethinking but in so far as it prevents the sort of combination of short term. expansionary policy and sort of long term structural adjustments that seem like the only way out of this mass it's probably not going to reassure markets it's probably going to. change the situation from the sort of high unemployment sclerosis that many of these countries are facing at the moment as long as people don't have jobs and the economy is in recession no one is going to look too kindly on these tough political establishment in the country nicholas i want to go to you before we go i can tell you something else and i think it was before the break go ahead go ahead nicholas yeah. i think

the important thing to keep in mind is that you know it's how many people who like to say it's going to die tomorrow but i think it has proven very resilient in this crisis much more keys and many of the commentators where assuming it if you remember a year ago there was ninety percent probability in the market consensus that greece would be outside of the euro zone by the end of two thousand and twelve this hasn't happened so i think what happened in italy is very important it's very serious and so why do you call the way earthquake but it goes system yeah but it's a very important situation and it moves their right to believe has to be one hundred but i would want against jumping to conclusion that this is again going to create massive contagion and threatens to viability of the region and we're going to be juggling here and we're going to go to a short break and after that short press will continue our discussion on the euro crisis state what are.

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welcome back to cross talk all things considered i'm peter lavelle to mind you we're discussing italian politics and the euro. ok doing fine go back to the italian vote was on austerity if anything ok and if you support austerity you get punished ok so how do we look forward you know other countries in the periphery. i think that i would interpret it slightly differently

from that again i think it's worth emphasizing that the one. not necessarily prosti but certainly pro brussels party that the democrats came out on top in the lower house and if they had had the same electoral system in the senate would have come on top then it's more a sort of issue of the regional based sort of election system in the senate. so i but but you're absolutely right that this is the most important issue in the discussion. but what i would interpret that as saying is that just like any other people will be telling people really don't like it when they're in a recession when people can't find work and when when the economy really is good when does it stand on growth i guess that's the question here i don't believe it can my my my anybody i was in prison. sorry ok crosstalk go ahead nicholas jump in go ahead no i think we're overestimating the. i mean we're talking as if the italian election was

a single issue election about those thirty that's not at all how we felt in italy in italy it was primarily about corruption in italy and corruption in the top in political system and this is what lies behind a success of the five star movement they're basically saying there's also a musical director knows how it's working for you guys and a lot of people. david in london goals because when it was almost a high i agrees that i agrees it's about italian economies and then they are fed up but it isn't the neighbor force there's no i mean the ones are not right over to you but what people have voted this is very clear into a program of five stars they want to chance a god they want to change everybody in rule because those things are not served by those people well maybe they're not david go ahead and get this is a crook is this is a pan-european as i've said before as a pan-european thing as a rule of eight hundred forty eight is spreading right across europe and starting greece is now moving to italy spain and i can assure you right now france is going the same way the french economy is an appalling polling situation they're fed up

with the right all along we had to election in france last year france france is completely different germany would be different this year it's not grounds it's not the only state it was a great. the greek banks the greeks will a great deal of money to the french and of france's economies in the polling situation. people are leaving there because of the republican risk their struggle is it friends the european union opposing in terms of your eyes you're you're you're looking at iran from the polls all right all right all right dell and jumping you really hard i tried to impose limits on the whole deal and if you want to say i'm going to go ahead bill and i'm interested in david's repeated analogies to eighteen forty eight cents as we all recall they were a huge failure this is where it was altered in of and so i i don't know why is taking so much pride in that but i think it's. people knew it was

exactly right that there are other issues that this is what's happening dylan keep going i don't see a way that big case this is a little fed up with the a stash of the fed up with a stash of throughout europe do and keep going. but but but i think what nicholas is saying and i largely agree with this is that just like then the establishment is remarkably resilient and remarkably ago able to accommodate those pressures from the citizenry even if they are as extreme as you're saying and i think we disagree on the magnitudes there. but i want to agree with the point the nicholas is making about corruption which is not unrelated that there's. there's a lot of folk condemnation of italy and greece and southern european economies in general for their their informal economies the perception of corruption the feeling that they have there. but that's generally thought of those countries are always looking for nor does it have expected them to be anything else greece's i was being corrupt greece's hold on i'm agreeing with you italy has

always been corrupt italy is only disorganized there's nothing new there that you lot of is the european union is trying to have a fit policy which just really doesn't work for countries like greece and italy and spain where the as you say there has been a large informal economy the economy works because it's informal it does not cure all and well to yes you need rules and regulations nicholas jump in i want to say to our viewers who are not you know looking day today at europe that are debates interest rates home and so u.k. sort of disconnected from the european debate the european reality seen from so you can sing from may have paid part of the euro which i just europe i'm going to be basically right about the thing but it's british taxpayer as well you're just. dealing that you are smiling and you're you know i'm paying for it but apparently you don't understand it then you don't visit it because you're describing reality i think noticed and if you know why it's i just want to support what i learned when i . saw you i was in european union which hasn't been all the free is to deal and i

saw you smiling my neck and i hate when are you going to wrap your mind a day on it's go to dylan. well i i honestly am not enough of an expert on who got opinion in europe to say sort of whether to arbitrate the particular debate but i do think it's worth looking at the example of britain since it's unlike the rest of europe a country that really has no excuse for its economic condition that italy can can legitimately complain that it's not being well served by the e.c.b. david cameron doesn't like with the bank of england is doing he can you know mark carney a bit more mervyn king who i think is still there for a couple months but what we've seen in britain is that austerity is a massive failure. free premature contraction and reforms are going to allow the scenario to double the case actually have a social democratic government is not cutting there is not involving itself in

serious cuts it's cutting all the wrong things and none of the right things it's not cutting at extremely high wilderness of what do you buy the national god there's a lot of traction happening dylan finish your point and i know they're cutting the wrong things they're not i don't disagree if you gave out but they're cutting waste they're. no hint of cutting they're absolutely not cutting nickel it is not matching the whole of gentlemen education degrees here and change gears here ok nicholas how much can italy hold back reform of the euro now if they want to. it's a big economy now i think at this point italy has to form a government that i this point italy has to form a government and it's entirely unclear as we speak what sort of government will emerge from the result of the italian election so we need to wait for the dust to settle before we can answer your question then so does this probably not going to settle in nearly before i guess a number of weeks maybe we'll have a good surprise but my baseline scenario is that we will perhaps have

a government in march but perhaps not and that it's a really complicated situation over there we won't know about the position of the italian government unless we have an italian government dealing what do you think because your funds are rather well with the government. is your goal of forming one of the whole deal and go ahead it's a good point though the david made i think the one thing that it we should be very grateful for is that they have devised a system where and if worse comes to worse and they can't form a government they can just hold other elections and as someone who comes from a country where it is the norm to know or never be able to form a government between the president and the congress i am v there flexibility there so i think it's worth not thinking of this in two apocalyptic terms at the very worst a combination is and come to understand it well the markets might not be nice that's all i mean the markets might punish if it takes a long time that's certainly fair but you know that's why the markets.

that may not be what happens nicholas go ahead finish go ahead this is the beginning of the end of the european of the euro and the european union is just as clear to most people you sent that you've said that ten years david you've said that for ten years you've been wrong. well look after the way it kept it afloat. i don't remember your exact words but i remember he said very dangerous taxpayers and german taxpayers' money so you know it's been kept afloat by fraud and we have a little of that everyone knows it and they have to beat any of the rules is being kept kept going with british and the german taxpayers money the whole thing is a fossil it is not an economic project it's a political project for a country called europe which nobody voted for setting off in the u.k. and most certainly not a very solid country david so they have tried to bring in this and instead if you do we are not going to really be mad but you know you are predicting right and i

was just saying i really is not the exit ok don't talk over each other i developed a day to go to do i want to drive and i'm british taxpayers' money dillon what's that what's the future of reform structural reform of the currency because it needs it. i think. there are two basic paths one is the one that david wants where you see a. prickly of at least a few countries from the monetary union and you're left for the core group of states that is generally in. that i don't i want it endure and i want everybody out of it and i want the end of the european union. possibly doubt it do you believe that it's as right there i think greece is about a spade and it's bad for germany ok dylan what's the other scenario but the other scenario i can see is one in which the same pressures that have driven the to the point it's out today continue pushing forward of more formalized fiscal union and

that's requires a lot of political have you lifting ok you bring up a good reason i want to ask everyone would that be democratic nicholas would people vote for it. you've got to get to our security democratic if we build up our democratic institutions in europe we can make a democratic if we make the european parliament more representative and if we give more power to the european parliament it's perfectly possible it doesn't require that much institutional change so i don't think it's impossible to have a democracy at the level of what you have the true u.k. will want to be part of it this is a question for the u.k. to answer it is on here with a very short period of time i can tell you right now the european union is on its way out and everybody can see it you have got to be crazy to think otherwise the basically the run out of javelin and british taxpayers' money to keep it afloat and they can't do it anymore the whole thing's going to blow up the world's projections so you think you're wrong and so we'll continue to be wrong while we were

consistently right we told you the euro was a catastrophe and it's proved to be a catastrophe we wanted to stay out of the euro and you told us that agreed your budget of my stay out of it look at the mass of the country generally generally and i mean we are so many things fascinating discussion many thanks to you to my guests in london and in washington and thanks to our viewers for watching us here on t.v. see you next time and remember. these were. hold it. hold it.

look let's cut. the good speed. with. a bomb it's a good. luck. just see. it. come out fine i'm a little. wealthy british style.

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