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my. welcome to business with me katie here in moscow hello now it looks as though the euro is in need of a serious pier our age and with all the eurozone troubles in the ongoing cyprus banking crisis the common currency could be in danger of losing its last false according to the latest data released by the international monetary fund developing countries are beginning to dump the euro from their official reserves the central bank sold forty five billion years in twenty twelve cutting their holdings of the currency by eight percent the ultimate intention of the euro was to bribe the u.s. dollar which now looks more and more like a distant dream right now is sitting on a four month low continuing its steady decline ever since february so is the european currency set to always remain second best so could the coins fortunes be even was while earlier today i asked jaroslav atlas of all the chief economist from

deutsche bank exactly that. the main trigger for the discussions around the lower use of the euro by developing countries by emerging markets is of course something that has to do with the european debt crisis with significant volatility that we've seen over the past year or so in financial markets because of the instability in some of the weaker links of the e.u. region and the integrity of the eurozone was of course in danger to a significant degree by these market pressures by the instability that we saw in the region. and i think that was partly the reason why we started to see a bit more caution on the part of some of the emerging markets and the central

banks of these of the. euro but at the same time i cannot imagine that the movement away from the euro is going to be drastic because for the central banks that would want to reduce their exposure to the euro it would be essentially shooting themselves in the fourth because the pendency of the euro as a reserve currency is quite significant and if there is too drastic a flight from the euro down this is something that would be fraught with capital losses for the central banks of the world and the cordingley if there is a movement to reduce exposure to the euro this movement would have to be very gradual and i think it would need to be. very cautious on the part of the central banks all the more so because there is genuinely a lack of alternatives out there there are not that many reserve currencies in the

world that could at least at this stage can feed. would the euro or the dollar and some of the cases some of the emerging markets have capital district restrictions and this is a very or to the use of the currencies of these economies as reserve currencies for the central banks so our view is that the euro will probably be under pressure throughout this year in the next several years by the end of two thousand and thirteen we expect the euro to subside to one point two versus the dollar and one point one five versus the dollar in the next several years. well i think the markets are up to them in this but it's a business for the u.s. markets after the bright stocks are declining after reports show that american manufacturing spanned is less than forecasts in march as factors slow production orders way the tech sector is struggling apple and intel leading the declines

despite strong gains by the likes of. black berry european stocks of course closed for an extended easter break while asian markets fell off to data from japan and china some rather on the world and it's quite a negative monday for the russian markets both e.r.t.'s the mises into the day in the red losing a little lead percent each we had oil for the in the session which is always putting pressure on the moscow markets of course because of the energy dependence ate so with that in mind let's check out the prices of all right now and they already poised to mark their first to climb in six sessions that she says traders show disappointment over the pace of expansion in the u.s. manufacturing that i mentioned which bodes ill for potential energy demand as well as that exxon mobil shot point plan carrying crude as well so we're playing in those prices just which i got the russian ruble see what happened there and he shot lower both the u.s. dollar and the euro gained to the russian currency move which out the gold there

because it's actually as you can see higher this hour actually on average it rose for the second time in three sessions as economic reports in china and japan fueled speculation that the government would expand its stimulus measures increasing demand for gold for storage to grow in their vaults because they would go for now and one of the world's richest investors warren buffett reckons that the total amount of above the ground gold in the world is fitted to a cube of size of just twenty meters or sixty seven feet which is actually pretty small you with so how does he even know that well it's not a guess but an actual official. and new gold survey from reuters our latest figure for all the gold in the world is one hundred seventy one thousand three hundred tons which is about actually the size of the wimbledon sent to court tennis court records. right then so moving on now big depositors cypresses largest bank

may be forced to accept losses of up to sixty percent far more than initially estimated under the european rescue package to save the country from bankruptcy and a large savers the cyprus popular bank which would be absorbed into the bank of cyprus could lose as much as eighty percent accounts of the bank of cyprus would lose up to forty percent so for more on these figures to give us a bit of insight we've got assets and i put a cave are right here too for the set and now other understand these figures that on large depositors those are the people that have been paying lives. so is it fair to say that it's the russian money that because of the russian money is the large deposit is theirs and i think euro's case looks like this we don't know the figures for sure but experts say that most of the largest deposits as they just are russians and this cypriot banks and the financial times for example reports that the russians may lose up to four billion euros as the banks go on the restructuring

and analysts from moody's rating agencies they say that the loss may be even more significant around six billion euros bottle whatever the loss is the russian savers will have to cope with it on their own as the russian government has officially about moscow is not going to bail them out. it's a great shame if somebody loses money in these two cyprus banks but the russian government won't take any action in that situation if there will be some serious losses in companies in which the russian state is a shareholder we would look at these cases publicly here in russia but for this it would certainly not be necessary to help the republic of cyprus. interesting about this whole thing at the money with these large percentages of come out now is when if we go back when the whole debacle came out the ten percent of the supposed as was natural we had a lot of outrage here in russia we had president putin he was saying some outspoken

things as well as i realize very well. but that was ten percent we're not talking sixty eighty percent potentially silence yeah yeah yeah especially for it means and i'll speculate why they're actually going mint is not so negative any more and more holy shit yeah i can say from what i've heard from a lot of experts first right the tax haven cyprus is home to many russian companies however as the whole thing happened i've spoken to some of russia's richest businessmen and they told me that even though their companies are registered in cyprus not necessarily keep their cash in the contrary you know so. so that to me was an issue of panic then a beginning maybe they overestimated how many billions going to be taxed or taken off them essentially speculate. yes a lot of people now also think about probably. the richest and most powerful

russians had all the inside information and you know they use this two weeks of cowards to transfer their morning articulated structures to other contras but again this is also. i think we're going to be having plenty more to us about this one for sure and also as well there's also always been the reports about money leaving even when the invitations were put in place another conversation for another day or. that's how i want to live on facts and say yeah thank you very much all right so as you go forward back unless until i was time they saw more business with another edition in the meantime staying with business of only european media explains the routes and repercussions of cyprus is economic meltdown. thank.

you. for letting. me. thank you. thank you you. thank

. it's.

about international and in the very heart of moscow. thank you very much for being with us but let's start with something use recently how will these troubles a fact the entire european economy suffers a specific cases if any country see a real point in the us europe point two percent of the g.d.p. of the eurozone but the problem was cyprus has eight times more turnover we're buying into the balance is being compared to be cheeky piece or eight times more that this is absolutely unsustainable and everybody you would within the european young people where we're the mass media newspapers we're all the time complaining that something must be done so nobody should be surprised if you say that. everybody knew about that could have been avoided sure. the

government. but the previous government led by a former communist who should have done much earlier the reduction of this size of the financial sector i mean this is you cannot have such a huge financial sectors or judy banks so who is to blame right now that it's happening part of the blame game ok who's responsible his response i think everybody's responsible main the main responsibility on this episode but again you is ready to support the ten billion euro loans is not nothing this is a big big support mainly of the north part of europe mainly coming from germany from the from us to from the strong economic partners of europe us for a chase and german authorities i recently heard the country's finance minister want private deposit terrorists not bank. what reason do they have to care more about

bankers than people look at the sort of see the of these of the big banks not enough and the problem is you need to be in the imposed by the i mean if no country should have more than one hundred thirty hundred twenty percent of it compared with the cheapie so this explains why those has to offer something between five and six billion euro. but really contribution. sustainable contribution not to increase that it in my opinion first is called beer in fascinating taste is for cooperation between the european union russia turkey israel. and the the great the probable surplus of the reunification of cyprus for the in the greek part the rupee part you part what about. the

options of gas and oil. perspectives in the region together with palestinians and israel's what about the defames expenditures of the greeks. if there will be a generally green meant there would be a win win situation for everybody it's entirely cypresses problem right now it is cyprus problem i think it would not effect the eurozone as such it could create a. tendency this is true but not only for you you put your opinion but those is not a good symbol for russia. for international people in the financial markets this is true all but it's up to the cyprus people to see into government to see what should be done you've mentioned australia yass all strays during much better than the rest of the eurozone economically how do people in your country take the fact that they have to bail out troubled economies they think that they'd better off staying from

the euro zone. of course is a debate this is true and a little bit. infuriated by some newspaper the daily newspaper newspapers saying why should we pay for those who are lazy and not doing but i think the change will move. people is quite moderate they understand who we are sort of see in the political union we are part of golf. and we have to take our responsibility as weight because we are also benefiting from the european market and for us. i think we are now seen through ninety five as well now. to twenty years in the european union this was a big achievement you know i was a young minister for economic affairs starting in eighty nine so i was part of the fall of their own curtain call ups of the soviet empire and the enlargement of our enlargement and the new member states. this was an extraordinary positive

driving experience for us and we benefited not that everybody benefits from this union in the longer in the long run yes but there were problems look for instance greece is a good example greece starting from the year two thousand until now they had wages reason. fifty sixty percent i mean this was not sustainable the productivity was a factor or stigma and germany for instance had a very long increase of wages ours too as well the productivity was very cold so i mean those countries in some countries did not do you the common currency of the benefits of a common currency low interest rates in a reasonable way in now if they have to pay the price they should have used this

a benefit with with edition and structural reforms look to deed to the labor market still need to lee and working hard together with mario monti during the last two years. or france the same the labor market this extrusion leave regulated it is really tough and not easy to have a flexible labor market hire and fire especially hire young people to do the old people jobs. secured in the young people who have no problem no changes at all to get the job so i think the benefit was there the benefit of the euro small balls become a currency means. interest rates for those who are participating but it should be a company from the very first moment of structural reforms to be competitive and this was the real mistake is real failure now you were there you were all stressed chancellor that time one countries like greece and italy were a dog. into the euro zone although they were not ready economically they didn't

qualify what was going on than they were able to direct in the one tweet the locked doors need to leave romano prodi at the time or the cost to see meet the prime minister of greece they wanted to become this probably members of the u.s. on the cheap cheated in greece rigged some day and german authorities were aware of that and this is also the matter why it was ignored this is not. there where would people determine the authorities knew about it but the fact of the decision that was part of the disease and the decision was that the european commission is the institution which should prove is greece right or not and the commission said yes so the question is now was the commission right saying greece is ready i think it was not supposed to be was

a big mistake in greece and we all are now paying the price for it but why now people have to suffer from someone else or some politicians may be irresponsible to say i understand this on the other hand you should look at the other side of the coin and it is the same coin. for instance those who. got much more interested in the last five years twenty twenty five percent in. germany or. probably you had altogether maybe six seven eight percent interest now so to see it getting it would be very naive thinking that you can have a windfall profit of of twenty percent interest wades and everybody knew this could be a problem so this is always risky it's your decision and you cannot blame others of the blame game doesn't tape i think if you are investing your money in switzerland you know. well you will not get interest rates but you save. something interest

rate but it's safe. and if you go to. a country with high interest rates you know there's a much bigger risk and there is no guarantee for that greek case and cyprus case have highlighted the lack of real trust between the countries members of the european union and eurozone and this is what's tearing europe apart before everything goes away he probably the poor european approach is stronger if you are in a crisis the blame game starts and who is responsible who is the scape called who came be blamed for this and that and now we are in deep in this blame game situation who came be blamed for it and i think we should be a little bit more humber. and looking for that everybody was was responsible and everybody feels a little bit creepy and should be a little bit more critical so critical but there is a very strong on both anti you and anti terrorism sentiment among people don't you

think that the risks are higher of a split within the euro zone and the european union their concerns and concerns but i think these concerns are understandable because. of risks bits spoke about one point six trillion ural i mean nobody can imagine able to sit mean one thousand six hundred billion euro pieces i mean major label for average citizens. you have to explain what is happening why are we doing the same thing and one of the big problems in the european decision shaping process is delayed. of timely. explanation i think this is up to the important to explain to the voters to the citizens what is happening and why is this a tip and isn't that too late for the. at norwich never to do it and i think look

at all. i think in the european union will come out of the quote is stronger than before and it is my firm belief through still see that this crisis can bring positive impact on the country like what doesn't kill you makes you stronger is that what what you think it is if you take the right decision then it can be a positive outcome it can easies mean seen mean chinese. chance either to that they could live side or to the positive side be the chinese symbol of crisis it is exactly that that if we take the right consequences if we learned the lessons to be learned then we could be absolutely positive step forward if not and if not. the consequences might be tremendous that's glitch that's for sure thank you very much for the interview and yeah thank you.

you know when the history of any culture there are some dark chapters throughout human history there's been war on every continent and religious strife and oppression every culture has some skeletons in their closet and in recent u.s. history the scandalous prison at guantanamo bay as making patriotic americans scurrying around a decade or so rather than slamming the door shut and get mall i hate that term condemning it as one of the greatest mistakes in american history and gloriously declaring on t.v. channels and newspapers the country wide that it shall never be repeated again the pentagon instead wants to blow another forty nine million dollars expanding it even if you are one of the types of things that american gulags are super cool and awesome do you realize it takes over one million dollars per year per prisoner to

keep the place open are you sure you don't want that money to go towards something else like your children's education the thing that burns me up about this the most is that obama promised if elected to close guantanamo bay and as commander in chief of the armed forces he could do this whatever he wanted no amount of filibustering by the republicans could stop him obama you promised hundreds of millions of people to do something very simple start the paper work tomorrow buddy make the nation look better that's your job but that's just my opinion. speak your language. programs are still human trees in arabic in school here on. the will talks of sympathy or p. interviews true story. arabic for a visit or

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