hello and welcome to cross talk where all things considered i'm peter lavelle engulfing the neighborhood syria's civil war has spread across the border into lebanon hezbollah defiantly promises victory over sides enemies indeed it would appear hezbollah interim intend to steadfastly stand by their ally in damascus the taking of sides is all but complete and the stakes for the entire middle east could be higher. to cross out the war in syria i'm joined by dan arbella in washington he's

a guest scholar at the center for middle east policy in the brookings institution and a former israeli diplomat also in washington we have martin all. he's a professor of philosophy and religion at the american university and in beirut we cross to franklin lamb he is director of americans concerned for middle east peace all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want franklin here in beirut if i go to you first the head of hezbollah says the syrian war is our battle pledging a completely new phase what does he mean by it and what are the implications. well what he means by it is that hizbollah is in it to won it and they intend to do that with the support of iran and other forces the implications are enormous perhaps historic. particularly with respect to the designer's occupation of palestine they are hoping that this will weaken hezbollah in fact it will likely strengthen his bottom line if the assad regime remains there will be no

greater power i'll side of israel than hezbollah in the region as the americans withdraw so it's a fundamental broad expanse of relevance to all of the surrounding countries as well from iraq to turkey and jordan ok dan in washington would you agree or disagree with that i tend to know what your answer is go ahead. of course i would disagree with. is. a very tense moment in the region of course. is flexing a muscle but. and israel is watching the situation closely monitoring the closely but nobody's under the illusion of hizbollah can actually become the second most powerful force in the region is actually being weakened as we speak suffering casualties and i think that the lebanese people in the lebanese

government are realizing that this perhaps is their chance for the first time in a very very long time to diminish his bowlers and strengthen activities ok martin where do you come in and all this here let me let me go to martin had to get all three guests first martin. i think the i think the mistake is in assuming that has been involved up to this point they obviously have been. needed to make an announcement only to. point out what has been obvious for some time that has been participating in the syrian conflict and it also needs to be stated that this is being depicted by now israel as a show of. strength in fact it's about their very survival of the pipeline of arms from iran through syria closes down and has no one nowhere else to turn ok but martin i mean that's what makes this so serious it's a it's a you know a game changer ok either you win or you lose. who. knew the

case but who wins and who loses exactly. there is no assurance that this will turn the tide for for bashar al assad and the syrian army. has a lot to gain and a lot to lose but if it does suffer defeat in syria will remain a force in lebanon there is no other force that can contend with it will certainly do diminish his voice claims to being the defender of lebanon and those that have some real political problems back home. i think israel has a chance to wait and see project strength and. find out if. is what it wishes it is it was something in two thousand and six franklin do you want to jump in go ahead. well me just say that it's true that the situation is tense but the situation has been tense in the region since the occupation of

palestine in one nine hundred forty eight so that's not going to go away until that problem is is resolved. there is a risk to hezbollah but i think you're all were looking at perhaps the depth of the breath of their commitment and support i promise by the notion that this may be their golden age coming for hezbollah on a victory by a victory i don't mean that assad stays forever i mean by that i would define it he stays told the two thousand and fourteen election and let's see what sort. of off and kerry come up with in terms of a solution but i think right now if real is concerned they would like as our guest said to take advantage of this of course but it's not clear the going to get an opportunity hezbollah in my neighborhood i live right in the middle of the security zone a half mile from where that mortar hit the other day more and more people are joining hezbollah sure they've got their detractors but this. again as for the arab

national loss as an opportunity to repel the design house american project is a syria to topple the regime and to build up the arab nationalism and bring back into the era well you know franklin they will say this is the states this is their state even this is a sectarian difference to dan when you jump in and we talk about that. they were missing this i think we're missing the terror thing the point here it's going to get uglier it's that was are focusing too much on her so much on what's happening actually in syria. right now syrian civil war is at its peak with the assad regime brutally trying to suppress the opposition forces and while while doing that the opposition of course is returning and is fighting back and many forces are in play in the region supporting either the us sudra cim

or the opposition has been supporting the syrian regime together with iran. against the west against the united states turkey the european union and others so we have to look at the broader picture and put this ball in the right context i think martin how much can hezbollah help well a broader picture includes iraq ok we'll talk about that too martin you want to jump in the question and peter you referred to it is to whether or not there is a sectarian matter here i think we make a mistake to assume that hezbollah's aligned with the syrian government because of a religious affiliation well i'm not saying there is that ok for their own survival you know keep to keep martin keep going and to speak specifically to the situation in lebanon although there certainly are probably people flooding. the neighborhood where. dan is. the situation on the ground there is very

tense very fluid in the northern lebanon you have fighting happening. in the streets. and there is not is a clear sense of how this will break down in turn away and i'm not sure that the. movement of hezbollah to refashion itself as a defender of arab nationalism is going to go over well it has always been only. projected itself as a defender against israel we might and i fail to transform itself into an effective governing force and so now this move to become some kind of regional power is. rational measure by god i got to do. it franklin you got to disagree without if i can first of all they have to be a very effective governing power but what they did in two thousand and six rebuilt two hundred fifty two homes they are planting flowers trees all over there another

good in franklin there and i think over there for example is the government levanon there's a very good government. no no you're talking about a dominating they're one of the parties and they are going to really kind of they're not and they're rolling out and they're calling the shots in parliament of course not the government and i think that the point is god's thoughts but as i go sectarian his own didn't start that way but it's being but it's being increased by all sides not bad guys on both sides i'm not claiming that but what i would ask you to consider is the jury strategic record of iran and this are wrong all right let's talk about iran in a second how the clock will go on gentlemen let me try again here and franklin please dan go ahead for equal time. first of all we have to again put. in its right place has been as one of the factions operating in lebanon of course we've grown to this reality of a state within

a state which has been is running undermining lebanese government for it's constantly trying to to. to rule by fear or to to effect by fear by by force by by torture we know their methods so first of all let's put aside i think that we have to focus on the big picture and the big picture is the fact that the assad regime is at its. at its moment of truth and is facing serious challenge and the international community should step in tag am pretty sure i could jump in here on the day you know you. know this to to go on we know standing because i think you may end in assad's end for two years now ok two years. fund well you know he's managed to survive but so far you know the international community is galvanizing efforts and it seems like right now it is

a moment of truth in which the european union union finally lifted its arms embargo on the opposition we have senator senator john mccain visiting syria over the weekend meeting with opposition forces and we're seeing an alignment of forces in the west in the european union with turkey that there is a plan if the pie the nursery pressure perhaps that will bring the frankland regime franklin will finally before the fray all that the law that's not at all well for. you that's not all what happened in brussels there was no vote to council to find the sanctions are still in place and they're going to be intel midnight on friday what they didn't have the votes to do what the british and the americans and certain other of their allies italy wanted to do was take an affirmative affirmative act to lift the sanctions. that didn't happen so now they're going to die it's actually a defeat for the british particularly and look at the comments are right general

the number you need to be we have to go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on syria state with r.t. . we speak your language. news programs and documentaries in spanish what matters to you breaking news a little tonnage of angles kidneys stories. you hear. that troy altie spanish find out more visit i to al it all tito it's calm.

a clear image of iraq after invasion. twenty day taxi trip through the country. the road full of dangerous. clear evidence from north to south. the roots of iraqi tragedy. after the war waiting for peace. taxi on r.t.e. . british. markets. find out what's really happening to the global economy. headline news to report.

all things are considered. discussing the syrian civil war.

ok martin what do you think of the e.u. decision on the. arms or ending the embargo on arms to syria good idea bad idea. more arms is a good idea in the situation solution or lack of decision yeah but your decision or lack of decision as it were really points to the fact that there are no good options on the table certainly you hopes to see assad overthrown and for the rebels to succeed in that but which rebels which group of rebels arming who exactly and to what end we've seen the role of arms. given the sort of indiscriminately in this region before and the ways that that has come back to haunt various groups. and. international community at large. so i think it really points out to the quaid mire that both the international community finds itself in and that the syrian situation

itself has become. it's a tough spot. yeah it seems that it seems they just get worse and i receive momentum in a day and go ahead. absolutely and i'm not sure where and i think you know i mean my own arms exemplar of resentment against her in a way that anybody looks for ok dan well there is the russian piece i agree there is a russian time goes ahead again go ahead dan well as time as time goes by the russian peace plan is. becoming is i think more fading away and there are efforts now in paris as mentioned earlier between secretary kerry and the russian foreign minister to try and see what can be done but of course this whole notion of a geneva process of the peace conference is also something that has to be has to be worked on it has to be there has to be a realisation that it is the problem and not part of the solution and i think that

the quicker everybody realizes that the better and in this context i think that the supply of their. systems. by russia and others in the international community to the assad regime don't could. on the contrary they services destabilize i disagree with you to state the state of this regime has to be other protect itself every country has a right to protect itself franklin go ahead in beirut. yeah and we've got it we've got a concert of the. syrian people to the fact of matter and i have spent the last of basically most of the last five months in syria i don't think that this syrian people are all it revolved because of all the hardship from the u.s. led sanctions to the brutality of the of the rebels and the brutality of the regime people are exhausted they want peace i don't rule out the russian plan i think that

what this was not done at the you and i think has been mischaracterized they didn't only for sanctions the sanctions are going to expire on friday they didn't have the votes to lift the sanctions and i think the community the international community going to watch every arms shipment the only game in town may be. john kerry and sergey lavrov and i think that brahimi is correct when he says this is the one bright spot on the horizon because the arm for continuing they're not arms for peace arms are for war and so i mean i'm thinking that john kerry and lavrov who have apparently had a rough on personal and political levels there's a report from washington that the both of them are going to travel together and guess where the got to go they're going to go to the presidential palace and they're going to talk to bashar assad assad is not the devil he's made huge mistakes he will go eventually but let's let the the process to work with the

interference from the outside and i disagree that the international community is united regime change as are all the case so i think we're going to see some progress and we might be surprised a lot of official i've talked to in syria and common people have not given up on by bashar assad he may decide to go but. we've got to we've got to keep hands off let the election and. that steer take place what the russians and the americans and the iranians the rains have a big role in this let's see what they can come up with ok martin what do you think about the peace process the russian peace plan. dead on arrival i think. i think there is no peace without russia's involvement but ironically that the russian plan will not lead to peace and i want to take issue with what you said here about syria's right to defend itself as you called it. the continuing shipment of arms

from whomever to whomever in syria leads directly to this conflict agree that. bashar al assad is not the devil but he has murdered tens of thousands of his own citizens like rep also it kills a lot of people as well you know also. most certainly and i'm sort of think when you're talking about one hundred one hundred thousand people that were. we're talking about tens of thousands of casualties of the people from the fire of the assad regime for the actual use a daily basis use the chemical weapons cache that he still controls holds ok somebody has to start up to it and i think that. assisting him by aiding him that's not the solution ok franklin jump in. and certainly a solution to follow your line of thinking if it coincided with john mccain. war

he wants you know what he wants a fly low fly zone we learned from libya what a no fly zone means it means twenty two thousand aerial attacks nine thousand of them targeting every target a kid on a motorcycle if necessary so mccain wants an all out war israel would like all out war but i think the russians and the iranians and the americans and the eventually be e.u. and the u.n. i looking at this different way and you know if you come to syria you'll see it's a little more complex and those who say they understand it all i think they don't i think there's plenty of confusion so i thought i'd bet on the only bright spot i see are the iranians the americans and the the russians pushing with arab or he may be the others are peace program and plan and remember ball on the foreign minister said that the syrians will show up when they don't come to the table let out of their short can let john mccain come there all calm that's better than what's going

on now it's got to be preceded. by a cease fire so what's wrong with that martin what's wrong with that. franklin well i wonder frankly do you believe that. any peace can come with assad remaining in power franklin you want to answer the question tell the election yeah tell the election i think it can and i'm not convinced pointedly then he wants to say we are on a free and open and fair election. franklin well we can get jamie we can endure a car over there and we get the u.n. but i think that's problematic of the regime is going to have to prove to the world that it's a clean election and there'll be plenty of pressure on them. to make sure that happens but give credit to the syrian people you know it's not just their eight thousand years of history and their deep culture they're not in love with their government but they're in love with their country and i've seen that from homes to

aleppo to damascus it's remarkable i don't know barack and i love my country but i don't think i have that kind of deep love that the syrian people have they're going to survive with or without this regime and i think we should have faith in them and let them decide these regime issues in the next election ok dan in washington jump in here i'd like i'd like to say the first of all to set the record straight israel has no interest in this conflict continuing why it's important but then why is it one serious you know it's the other you to why is it on syria and israel why should ban syria that israel wishes to see israel which is a syrian people peace and tranquility and a democratic and a democratically elected government without our side in the picture. i don't know if israel did not. and who did not i do know i do know i do know that there are red lines for the israeli government and if somebody

crosses those red lines israel is bound to respond in a certain way so if weapons are trying to do sophisticated weapons or technology and missiles and chemical weapons may be translated fall into the wrong hands of those of hezbollah from the foot of the of israel would will be a red line and this is what will not allow this red line to be crossed but another thing you know how to respond to life after sixty five years of the. but the involvement of the iranian regime the tricks. is that in a positive way i think it's a it's a it's destructive. even soldiers are fighting alongside. are are suppressing the this is a really horrible so one cannot be a part of this so there's a whole show you there about ok did you read the locating the margin maybe to saudi arabia to become to come to a stop maybe saudi arabia could bring democracy because of syria definitely so and how but i could write down

a trip where you're going to be very gentle in flying down martin john. martin jump in you have the floor of options here and as we've said none of them are very good but i think it's quite clear and i i would back up from point of the syrian people love their nation and. wish to see a peaceful prosperous syria the question is does involvement from anyone outside of syria solve that was involvement lead us towards peace does iranian involvement lead us towards peace does russia's continuing. military supply support of iran sorry of syria lead to peace with saudi arabia and involvement lead to peace i am not sure that any one of those and so perhaps it might need to be a true combination and as franklin suggests maybe bring in the iranians the russians the americans and yes the saudis along with the turks the jordanians and other regional actors into the room but that's going to be some serious diplomatic

muscle that needs to be flex in order to make that happen but i have a hard time seeing any other way will be resolved save for closing the borders and allowing the syrians to sort it out for themselves but that's a kind of blood sport that i think no one wishes to see well this is a very very difficult problem gentlemen we've run out of time many thanks today to my guests in washington and in beirut and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at r.t.c. next time and remember. it's a.

play. the a. clue live.

cut cut. cut . you know how sometimes you see a story and it seems so for life you think you understand it and then you glimpse something else you hear or see some other part of it and realize everything you thought you knew you don't know i'm charged welcome to the big picture. but all over my language of what i will only react to situations i have read the reports to let me know for sure no i will leave them to the state department to

comment on your latter point the monthly stage if they carry out a car is on the docket. of a jail no more weasel words when you have a direct question be prepared for a change when you go unpunished be ready for a battle freedom of speech means little down to freedom to crush. it and. it'll eat. meat.

u.k. armed forces admit to holding dozens of suspected militants without charge any british base in afghanistan now the public and parliament want to know why they were kept in the dark over the detentions. u.n. and international officials urge britain and france to drop their plan to supply the syrian rebels with weapons opposition factions split among themselves. jobless and in jeopardy e.u. leaders warned of a block seven point five million young unemployed need to work soon or they will be driven into the arms of extremism.