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hello and welcome to crossfire where all things are considered i'm peter lavelle egypt on the brink a year after becoming president mohamed morsi and his democratically elected muslim brotherhood face massive protests and social upheaval as one revolution ended in another started opposition figures have asked the military to step in to restore order if the military again becomes the key power broker in egypt what does this mean for democracy in the arab muslim world. to tensions in egypt i'm joined by brian jones in new york he is a marine corps vet and a military and defense writer for business insider and in london we cross the car line rumi she is a research councils u.k. global uncertainties leadership fellow you're right folks cross talk rules in effect that means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage it carolina fine go to you first here it looks like the military is performing

a coup in egypt is that good for anybody. well i don't know if it's a coup as yet i think various options still remain open as to. whether there might be people prepared to work with morsi or not although that seems unlikely or whether for example there might be a way of setting up some kind of presidential council that might sort of see an interim period towards new elections so. i think we're still waiting to see you know carol and we're going to stay with you it's a military calling a bluff ear i mean this is quite serious right now you know giving an ultimatum a democratically elected figure you know this is the military you know bluffing do you think or do you think they're quite serious or they have their own game plan their own roadmap as they call it. i think they have their game plan and i think possibly at this stage it's to try and keep certain options open. and

we'll have more of the game. or road revealed you know as things progress really when you think about that brian i mean waiting to see what yeah everyone's waiting to see what's going to happen here brian and what are your father thoughts on this here because the military seems quite in bald and lately. yeah this is knowable off whatsoever the military is quite serious that this is a poignant political move the general says he thinks that it's his role and that's the military's role in egypt to step in and to become the sort of protector of the people when they see uprisings we saw the exact same thing during the arab spring in late january early february of two thousand and eleven ok brian those figures those were dictators they were democratically elected morsi is true but morsi has done nothing but act like a dictator in the in the year that he has been in office there's a difference between being democratically elected and governing democratically and morsi is at the receiving end of the people's understanding of the difference right

now ok caroline what do you think about that and democratically elected but he doesn't act like a democrat. i mean i think they're yes democratically elected but under conditions that many egyptians thought would kind of compromise conditions. and i think what is now happening is this incredible massive vote of no confidence you know the petition of twenty two million or or so that's huge. so it's moved from a situation where he was being given a chance i worked a lot with some of the young activists in two thousand from two thousand and nine onwards and they said to me we'll we'll give them a chance but if it doesn't work out it's back to the streets ok their brain you know it but it's interesting just because you know he's democratically elected i want to stay with the constitutionality of this is because it's setting a very important precedent a dangerous precedent if the military does step in the road it is

a dangerous precedent but what other option do they have of the military is going to watch the situation in egypt cascade into violence this is the only choice that they have in order to keep the people safe and so the military is doing what it deems as its protective role and it's actually a remarkable situation to watch because this is the only military really in the world of a relatively advanced nation that views such a powerful role for itself in terms of protecting that or do you think that's a good idea if you think they're not a good idea i think that's kind of dangerous it's whimsical. if they like a guy they don't like i think i run out of good ideas and what. i think that there's a there's a deficit of good ideas there's no good options and so what are they going to do from here because all that's going to happen if they step back and do nothing and allow morsi so-called democratic leadership to legitimize any action that he wants to take place you're just going to see the people protests and they're going to get for more violent than they have been the death toll has been been relatively low

considering the scale of the protests that we've seen and so you're only going to see that rise you're only going to see that the islamists in the pro muslim brotherhood factions battle against the protests that are taking place i don't know if there are any muslim brotherhood offices left to ransack in egypt so if somebody has to do something caroline jump in go ahead. yeah i know i agree but are there two questions i had on the one was do you think that this will actually be a coup or just a means of transition by other means and also what about the the motivation of the way that it is a typical american who. right right well when the military is coming in and taking a level of authority away from a democratically elected regime that meets my standard of a coup we can call put lipstick on a pig and say it's a transitionary phrase or but i think of those of them words that have been uttered in every coup that has ever taken place throughout human history also the words this is not a coup have been said in every law i'll take the power and i'll give it back to you maybe in the future ok sounds like algeria to me one hundred ninety two of those

eleven i don't think that we have a reason not to trust that the military will do that also until we did a remarkably good job in my opinion given the challenges that he faced when he was head of the army into those eleven and he steered through that transition the bloodshed that we saw in will be in the words of that still is going on in syria was largely exempt from egypt because of the actions of the leadership of the egyptian military now i understand that this is not democratic and i understand that this isn't something that is an ideal scenario in any fledgling democracy but you're saving people's lives on the ground in behaving like this ok caroline go ahead because you know the military wants to keep control of the economy as well let's keep that in mind caroline go ahead yeah and i think that people on the streets in cairo quite divided i think that some feel that with some relief that the military are taking over there were fears of things might even go so far as civil war some point. and so for those is you know they're they're they're kind

of relieved but others are dismayed because. after the egyptian revolution the period when the army was sort of the sea. there was quite a lot of talent. that made people lose their faith in the army and you know during the original revolution it was people an army on one hand but that position has been eroded ok brian. i mean do you think the military is a force for good when it comes to democracy also ne ne i think that they need to be and they need to be a positive force in democracy what they are unequivocal he is an enormous power broker in egypt and that's not going to change could you imagine if morsi was in fact the commander in chief of the armed forces could you imagine would what would be taking place right now so we should all be very very thankful for the military's autonomy in egypt. i will say the that katherine's point about the human rights

record of the human rights abuses that were taking place in egypt in two thousand and eleven is a great one and we need the military moving forward needs to make sure that they are protecting the people particularly the women in the egypt yeah but if they don't join the brotherhood i mean the brotherhood had their headquarters burned down in the military didn't help out did they know they didn't write no no they didn't and that's something that they need to step up and protect moving forward human rights watch did a great report today where they spoke about the fact that the military did not equitably deploy itself to protect all levels of the population but i think that also speaks to the conduct of the muslim brotherhood and the other islamism and morsi as they have been in power that they've ostracize the military in the way that they have that the military is now a very very willing part in seeing a regime change in egypt ok caroline i mean he'll have the military i mean i think they have how doctors they have helicopters dropping flags on the protesters why is

the military doing that yes. i think it's because they want to feel the people feel to them you know that they have the support of the military really but now i mean they're an attitude go ahead brian because they're an active player in regime change so i think of the act of dropping the flags on the protesters i think it aligns absolutely right i think that that was a an attempt to demonstrate to the people that the military was behind them and had their support because of the millions of protesters that are in three square and other places right now if they were to feel like they were on their own without the support of the military the thinks of you very very violent very quickly so this was in the title praise great well rain let me ask you a question with brian let me ask you can you think the military can do a better job can they do a better job running the country the morsi right now in leading egypt yes i do think the military are doing better job very very low bar to hop over yeah i think that many many people could do a better job than morsi has done in this first year of what do you think the military can do better general knows you need to be you know because you think the

military can do a better job other quickly i'm saying that the military can do a better job yes ok carol that just about anyone could do a bit ahead caroline go ahead do you think the military could do a better job running egypt. my goodness milan italy is i would agree with that morsi has been a huge disappointment on so many fronts. and i think that many feel that not only have things not really moved from move much but but things have got worse in many respects already i'm going to jump in here we're going to get was a short break and we'll continue our discussion on egypt state park. is a. good

laboratory. was able to build most sophisticated robots which fortunately doesn't give a darn about anything mission to teach creation why it should care about humans. this is why you should care only on the dog.

so. basically when the saudis or the iraqis or the do the turn to the companies when they provide the should invest providing for their own she said that the same d.n.a. that cousins use share a language to share of a faith to share a culture and tradition now what you're saying is that because you are an arab because you are a muslim you for some reason have the same rights protecting the syrian people but to me it sounds just as you know condescending as the bushes claim or feels that you know supposedly call your responsibility here.

welcome back across like we're all things are considered i'm peter all about to remind you we're discussing the political turmoil in egypt. ok caroline i like to go back to you in london i mean there are forces there that are complaining about the economy it's the economy it's the economy and the economy and then there are others are saying it's all about islam i mean this is a conflict of huge cultures in societies here how do you how do you say way through

it the initial egyptian revolution was actually a revolution against near liberalism in. many ways because it was directed against sort of wealthy gated community elite. and but but what has happened since morsi is come into power is that there's been a lot more focus on the question of islamism now was that a diversion or is it real is it real or is it diversion because there's still the gated communities what yeah i know and i think that that issue does have to be tackled because the demand for the levy ation of poverty the demand for jobs. it's a very real one and i think that in some ways. the most he was deflecting things to a kind of islamist agenda in ways that weren't tackling the economic questions that he needed to. you know brian if you think that's what morris he did is that because

he couldn't grow the economy he went more to the cultural wars to use an american term i think that's absolutely what he did well i think that he was an ideological islamised person who took office to begin with but his principle agenda should have been. balancing and leveling out the egyptian economy especially the tourism industry that's the biggest thing that has has put egypt into a tough place economically moving forward tourism in egypt employs one in ten people in the industry is just tanked because of the instability so if he had been able to bring instability to the egyptian people get the tourist back there and then also be able to create the jobs that come with the tourism that he might not find himself in the position he's in right now but i think that he uses lama system as a sort of distraction from the fact that he couldn't or was not willing to bring that stability to the ground in egypt economically you know caroline but at the same time morsi has millions and millions of supporters as well they're just not in

cairo i mean i think a lot of people forget that they don't look at the cities. no it's true he does have supporters and they're sort of islamist to the right of him even that there's the sound of fees. but at the same time there's been disillusion within the muslim brotherhood as well and i've spoken to members of the muslim brotherhood who said that they've lost faith and mostly as well i went to the conference a couple of months ago in egypt on women in revolution and islamic feminists are speaking out against morsi so in a certain sense he's kind of split his own constituency and some you know to some degree you know brian if he does agree to some kind of formula i mean even his own supporters are going to back away from him the brotherhood you know they fought long and hard to win an election and they did and they're going to say we won it fair and square what it would say well the values of the opposition not very democratic i think that this is a defining moment for islam

a system in egypt and also islamicist in the arab spring moving forward we've seen that the biggest challenge after the toppling of the dictators in the in these arab spring uprisings is now dealing with the islamicist of that frequently moves in the islamic extremists and the hard right agenda that moves in as a result of that and so whichever leader takes place and whatever mr morsi has in the future of egypt moving forward is going to have to broker an arrangement between those far right wing extremists like those in the most muslim brotherhood and the rest of the population of egypt and this isn't just for the security and the stability of egypt but also for international relations which is going to be a huge part of the egyptian economy moving forward because a big part is tourism like i spoke about before but it's also the fact that foreign investment has dropped completely off the table because of the presence of the muslim brotherhood in egypt carol and there's been plenty of forces in egypt have

never wanted to see more of these succeed from day one would you agree or disagree with. i would absolutely agree with that i think that you know the support he had right from the outset was quite severely limited. particularly amongst the sort of grassroots revolutionaries. well clearly i mean worst compromise here i mean i mean we're you know who's going to have to step forward to compromise because that's what's necessary to resolve well here or else we'll have tanks in the streets again well i think that. there needs to be a government that's more representative of those who staged the revolution i think that that will be crucial. i think that. it would be ideal if they could be. transitional phase to new elections. perhaps you know with

a presidential council that includes. groups from the different political factions ok brian i mean a lections i find it very interesting because you know do you think the military is going to say let's have a presidential election or the military and say well we'll rule for a while let things calm down or what i'm saying is that you know if the next election then you overthrow the next guy ok the president is really bothering me here you don't like morrissey that's have a revolution it's not good for society any society no it's not good for society but i think that this is the people said a mandate for the next president when they overthrew mr mubarak back in two thousand and eleven and the lesser morsi did little to nothing to meet that mandate and now the people are responding to him as well i don't know how he thought that this was going to end but this is he's leading the same demise as his predecessor because he failed to govern in a way that was democratic and responsive to the needs of the people who overthrew the previous regime and i don't think that we have any reason not to trust the military. in that they will instill the kind of slow transition that we saw

previously under gen tonto it generalises see don't get me wrong he has he has some blemishes on his record particularly with the record with with women's rights in the way that the women were treated during the spring revolution in two thousand and eleven and i'd like to talk about that a bit later but i think that he is a very very autonomy's figure who is western leaning in western thinking he's a he's a graduate of the u.s. army war college and i think that this is a really good for egypt in the egyptian people maybe it's good for washington but is it good for the egyptian people i will i think that what washington once and i think that what the egyptian people one or both the level of progressivism so i do think that a forward thinking western western thinking and western influence leaders good for the egyptian people yes ok caroline do you think that's and do you believe that i always get worried when watching i always get worried when washington expresses its wishes you know and desires in the greater middle east it never works. well that's

just a reaction of doing you know a lot of care on the global story had to work go ahead caroline go ahead. well yeah i mean i suppose you know if one's looking out through the eyes of those in the middle east. they they kind of see the interventions of america britain as well as quite often opportunist quite often confused actually given for example that initially. mubarak was sort of being propped up. by governments and in the west to keep out the islamists. and then you know now we're in a situation with you know in syria where you know on the same side as. i do you still use the word confuse you hear that you heard a sin yeah. ok brian if i go back at you with the fact that

ok go ahead caroline go ahead keep going keep going. what i was just going to say that you know together the fact that as i said earlier. the the to some extent the revolutions have been against me and liberalism and then there's the question of well you know where does the west stand in relation to that ok you know it's you know brian you brought up a little bit earlier in the program about the ripple effect in the greater middle east and how we're going to people how are turks going to look at egypt and egypt look at turkey i mean you know it was supposed to be seamless have elections everything will be fine but it never works out that way at least in this part of the world now well i think that mr morsi and most are good on in turkey are both in pretty similar positions in that they are clinging on the fact that they were democratically democratically elected as there are masses in the streets calling for their ouster i would just like to reiterate the previous point that you have to govern in a way that is responsive to the people and neither of these men have done that and so i don't know how they thought this was going to end the first of their

democratically elected this group but they took an oath to the people and if the people demand you to leave now then obviously that's in a way more democratic than your election result ok caroline does the opposition have a sense the opposition have a plan let's say more as he goes ok do they have a plan. yeah and will they stay together i think that's the crucial question to ask action. because the movement has been kind of gotten mentioned by the grassroots rather than by the political parties are. the liberals and the leftists as it were obviously they're out there demonstrating but the important thing i think is more unity at the level of political parties and that will be really crucial ok brian you want to jump in we've got the last word. yeah i think the important thing moving forward is exactly as caroline

said i think that it's unity within the political parties but i also think that it's a willingness to compromise across the board from from the muslim brotherhood to the people who are protesting in the egyptian opposition people on the streets going to go or are they willing to compromise the people on the street willing to compromise when they just say go go go is that catalyzed that they just want to i think that they just want to be heard surfing's that of the herd then they'll be willing to compromise more and more says biggest political error has been that he has completely rejected the notion of checks and balances which is a crucial part of any democracy and we've reached a point where the only check that remains is the egyptian military and their pulling the only card that they have left he created this mess and so i think that moving forward if we're able to create a position where the judiciary has authority in the executive authority and the legislative authority and it's not you don't have a president who is attempting to write in how to jump in here we've run out of time or very sedating discussion here unfortunately it looks like only the military can

save the egyptian people many thanks today to my guests in new york and in london and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are to see you next time and remember a prostate. cancer . wealthy british style. sometimes classified. markets why not scandals. find out what's really happening to the global economy in these kinds of reports.

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large america is limited to e.u. states refuse that as space and demand to centrally believe in presence of chant over discredited rumors it might have been smuggling whistleblower edward snowden to safety. also this hour as human cairo with only hours left until the army's deadline expires for the president to resolve the deadly unrest but mohamad moore says says he is ready to go down fighting if this means protecting his will. and a new best friend pakistan rapidly loses patients over the you are destroying rampage that continues to claim lives china moves into the frame as it tries to wind down hard over the.