he says one hundred fifty million degrees with. no cellphone same piece bits of friends we travel in search of a song. we've got the future covered. the face you know. pleasure to have you with us here on our team today.

you leave me. alone welcome to cross talk we're all things are considered i'm peter lavelle serious last chance is the dates for the geneva conference are being arranged there is every reason to believe the assad regime may sit across from an empty chair syria's rebel opposition is on the ground or hopelessly divided the syrian political opposition in exile is divorced from the brutality on the battlefield so what can geneva two point zero hope to achieve. across not geneva two point zero i'm joined by hilary leverage in washington she is

a professor of international relations at the american university and author of the new book going to run and in new york we cross to richard murphy he is a reformer u.s. ambassador to syria and currently adjunct scholar at the middle east institute in washington all right crosstalk rules are the fact that means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage it hillary fine go to you first in washington dates are being said but who's going to show up the assad regime is made it very clear that they would like to show up but who's going to be across the table and they are there enough chairs for them even if they wanted to show up well clearly there's a problem with the opposition but there's been a problem with the opposition for over two years there's never been a coherent opposition there have always been problems with it there's always been problems with their foreign backers from the beginning what i think would be useful is if the if a conference went forward with all parties who could come unconditionally without preconditions it doesn't have to be a. make nice make peace between the assad government and members of the opposition

there can be other things that can be done among neighbors external power he'll. hillary reconstruction of syria and conflict raging as we speak right now some of the opposition's groups of groups are saying if other groups go we won't talk to you ever ever again or will block any kind of initiative i mean it's even within the opposition itself it's not about assad it's about if you show up we're not going to talk to you so it creates even more divisions so i mean i think geneva two point zero is the best idea out there but it seems very impractical right now. well you know howard has a funny thing happens with power at the end of the day when there is a table when there are people there when things are being decided seats are being allocated the pie is being split people will show up that's the experience i worked with the u.n. envoy lakhdar brahimi on prior conflicts in afghanistan iraq lebanon and that's what happens first everyone says they're not going to come and then people who actually want to participate want a piece of the pie they show up they may not represent the majority of the

population but they show up if they want to be involved in an on the ground political project we know that assad will show up we know that some of the neighbors will show up we know iran has said they come unconditionally russia the united states so there will be seats at the table whether in the front comes or not is that is not really my top priority ok richard that brings up a very good point do you do is the international community want these people who are considered terrorists or jihad is to actually sit at the table should they have a place at the table we don't want any dealings with groups that are directly tied to well i think that much is clear what is unclear is the line between a. command. group and those who are sympathetic but can be brought to the table to discuss the future of syria it is not interested in the future of syria interested in a trans national islamic. state so they're not interested

in this kind of talks anyway they are respected. in the rebel ranks serious fighters well funded will well armed dedicated but. their money you the rebels just don't see a future for. syria they want their own country well it's very interesting hilary if we look at some of these foreign founder of fighters up to ten thousand there are some estimates and so even more fighters in syria now than there were ever in afghanistan and that the civil war in syria is only been going on for two years i mean these people fighting for syria what are they doing there and is anybody outside the the exiles can they control them in any way shape or form it's i think clearly they cannot control and we've seen over the past two years that the so-called london eleven can't control them their sponsors saudi arabia and qatar can't control them i think they are not listening to any outside backer for the

benefit of syria they're very much for themselves whether it's for a panasonic state or whether it's just for their own various criminal reigns we don't really know and i don't think we should be so concerned we should focus on power sharing conflict resolution and reconstruction in syria whether anybody from the opposition comes or not that's what we did with afghanistan we were inviting the taliban to the table right away they can come after there is a reconstruction after you stand stand up a new political situation and i think the osce our government is very much not only probably a part of it but leads that and if others can be brought in we should be encouraging that but to hold to the battlefield to have more people die on the battlefield because of our fantasy of what people in the oppositional bring to the table is not only inhumane but it is strategically it's strategic malpractise we are creating a huge problem among the neighbors of syria and throughout the region richard

anyone that goes in the opposition to sit across from the people they're going to have to look. over their shoulder aren't they because the commanders on the ground they're calling the shots they're not listening to anybody in london or washington or brussels or stempel they have their own game to play and this is that this is the track this is the poverty of the whole situation because i've listened to all these people in exile you know some of them live close to langley virginia ok i mean who are these people to be talking about the future of syria. they have their views some of them very eloquent persuasive but you're right there's a gulf between them as a whole and the fighters inside who distin advice coming from those living in comfort as they describe it in five star foreign hotels i don't i don't disagree with what hillary said it all on getting going my question is

what can. asked bring his people bring to the table to persuade those who do attend the future is open it's not predestined that he is going to be. the forever president of syria and it's not enough to do is to say well we'll have a free election and let the people decide because the history of syrian elections over the last. has been that do not lose elections. hilary can you speak that because we had to say we had the secretary of state you had the secretary of state does say hours ago that assad has no future in syria shouldn't think about reelection in two thousand and fourteen i mean who the hell is the secretary of state to say what who should be leading the syrian state and who should vote for whom there i mean again it looks like the americans are

sabotaging this by determining outcomes before people even sit down and talk if they want to talk at all. yes it's unfortunate because not only is the american side insisting on preconditions they're insisting on pretty results which will has doomed and it go she had a process for the past two years and has directly contributed to this atrocious outcome not only in human terms but in strategic terms not just for syria but for the united states as well it is really i think strategic malpractises as i said before but i think ambassador murphy murphy's points are right just to call an election with asada running the history of that for syrians has not worked so i think what we have we have a really good asset with locked arbor he meet here at the u.n. at the table trying to organize this what he did for lebanon what he did for afghanistan what he did for iraq for somalia for haiti what he didn't to say call an election pretend that one man one vote is going to take care of the political

problems here you know what he did in each one of those other conflicts which he essentially wave the vote. so in lebanon today it's not one man one vote there's power sharing you can have power sharing in syria too where i said who i think represents and most americans hate when i say this i think he represents about fifty percent of the population if you stitch together the christians the shia the allawi the druze and the sudanese who don't want to live under a state you have at least fifty percent of the population so that's what os that brings to the table but that's not enough there clearly needs to be more at the table and i think what the the door that locked up or he me has opened just a bit is that assad is willing to come to the table with his fifty percent but to have others run maybe for other positions maybe they wouldn't be president but maybe they would be speaker of the parliament maybe they'd have some role in security or economic economic life in syria that's how you put together a power sharing resolution to a very very deep conflict would you seeing members of the opposition even thinking

along those lines whatsoever i think what hillary says makes perfect sense but what's happening in syria right now has nothing to do with sense it's just brutal violence and it's getting worse. i don't sense not in direct contact with opposition figures but i don't sense any trust throughout the opposition community that they can deal with a situation where assad is there and saying you can run for speaker you can run for head of security should he bring themselves to that point. there's just no trust. the they've been in the wilderness. long before there was the arab spring and the uprisings the rebellion. and their history of unity of action is is not good if you go back into the over the decades in the twenty's in the thirty's they . had great difficulty cooperating as head of political fact heads of political

factions so has a very difficult job. saddam was dead when he. had the results that he contributed to in iraq and i don't think that karzai in afghanistan has the image throat stand that assad has in syria so maybe the situations aren't directly comparable they are he's a man of great capabilities and he's proving that it's a different set up that he's dealing with. can you speak to that because i mean he looks like he's winning he feels like he's winning now honestly. yeah you know i was just in syria in lebanon over the summer right after the battle and qusay are and clearly they are government is winning on the ground which i think is making

the various rebels the are militias on the ground here where you. don't have the judgment where courts are going to go short break and after a short break we'll continue our discussion on geneva two point zero stay with arthel. placement. is a. subset of the boogie. it's. deliberate torch is on its epic journey to such. one hundred twenty three days. through two thousand nine hundred ton two cities of russia. relayed by fourteen thousand people or sixty five thousand kilometers going to a record setting trip by land air and sea and others face.

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economic down in the final. days. and the rest. will be every week. we. welcome back to cross talk we're all things are considered i'm peter lavelle to mind you were discussing the geneva peace process. ok i'd like to go back to richard in new york and six months into the conflict in syria i worried a lot about jihad is coming in and being supported by saudi arabia i was called alarmist a year later i talked about partition again i was called an alarmist but what about

partition if we don't get some kind of resolution relatively soon because civil war is the longer they last the worse the outcome usually is this a possibility that we could see the country partitioned what does that mean for a rump state syria and what does that mean for the the region as a whole. well if partition means setting up. fully independent mini states if you will of the current body of syria i don't think that's a viable or desirable situation and i'm personally banking on the history since the present boundaries were drawn during the first world war the british and french that a sense of a dynegy and a sense of some pride in being syrian is going to prevail and what it's what they negotiate is as they gather in geneva when they gather in geneva. have to keep in

mind that. there's a possibility to rebuild that state but the future of independent mini states is is suspect and the problems of federation which are possible between autonomous units i suppose will be very difficult to develop ok hillary cried he added i hope there is a stronger sense of identity in syria but hilary if i can extend my analysis of partition one partition state whatever you want to call it will not be secular if you know what i mean it will be jihad this land or something like that which is really no one in the region needs that we have next jordan we have also lebanon i mean this is what i worry about because assad can pull up the bridges and say i'm going to sit pretty until you guys figure out your problem your arming them you're giving them money you're giving them support you're giving them legitimacy and this

is the real problem i worry about if there isn't a resolution relatively soon. unfortunately no one will be sitting pretty. not the government in iraq not the government in jordan not the government in lebanon because such states and they would be highly militarized extremely unstable very unpopular with. with the populations all of those would be would be highly threatening to not only to syria but to all of the neighbors so i don't think anyone would be sitting pretty and no one has an interest in it not even the rebels because what's interesting and doesn't get a lot of media coverage is that every area that the rebels take they can't hold there's no popular support there's no government that emerges that's popularly based or delivers any services whatsoever we're now hearing that polio is come back into areas that the rebels have seized because it's so chaotic and so crime and violent grip violence driven so these i don't think there is a viability for these kind of areas to exist outside of the current state apparatus

as weakened as it has become under the assad government that's really all people have and we should be focused on the international community as regional neighbors trying to reconstruct rebuild syria both not just materially but politically economically and potentially even militarily where there is a robust component to geneva two for disarmament we need to speak seriously and frankly about essentially the legal arming of these rebel groups outside of security council resolution resolutions outside of international law the security council should be dealing with this with this illegal arming of people to overthrow recognize government of the united nations now i'm not pro or anti oxy i am very focused on international law and how damaging it is to try to overthrow a government extradition it's you bring up a very good point you bring up the international community richard you know we have want you to turn around in some kind of communication ok how far it's going to go

is anyone's guess after so many decades of bad relations but it does play into the dynamic because you have the united states you have turkey qatar saudi arabia and a look at israel and it looks like everyone's going in a different direction it's long as the u.s. tries to engage to run on some level it really changes the mix and dealing with syria. as long as the united states doesn't engage with whom what went on a long as it continues even the age when he's around doesn't know we're dealing with around because this is something that the saudis are are very unhappy about needless to say. oh yeah they are indeed. also i mean that's a real problem but. like to just check who with the with hillary this question of a secular state that secular state that people talk of probably as having existed

under the regime of the controls in that secular state in accordance with battery doctrine were exercised largely by in a clique of the alawite community we're no political dissension was permitted no factions were allowed to arise during half of the last it's time they were doing but schur's so there was the feeling among the sunni's among the or less among the christians because they did feel more protected no question of ancient two rivalries and suspicions and resentment of alawite domination and that made it somewhat less of a secular state in the american sense of secular well hillary i think i saw you nodding you agree but i mean what's the alternative i mean you know you're focusing on in the beginning the program you're talking about institutional reform that may address some of those issues but often but obviously the alternative of the civil

war is not an option it certainly at least. no but i agree with investor murphy i don't hold up secularism as some sort of ideal particularly in the middle east i think a secular state in the heart of the middle east is an anomaly it doesn't make sense in terms of people's popular beliefs their histories and their their their aspirations for what they want out of life but when you look at public opinion polling particularly public opinion polling that was done before the civil war the populations in syria polled differently from from others across the middle east who almost all the other countries a majority of them watch sharia to be the basis of islamic law to be the basis of their judicial systems in syria that was not so and not because there are people who deeply believe in islam and who want islam to be part of their life but because there is such a mix in syria of different ethnicities and different groups and that's where i think assad is able to draw this fifty percent of support but it's critically important i think to recognize that it probably can't go on that way it can't go on

as some sort of bath a secular ideal that never existed and that's where i said i think has opened the door with geneva two with the two thousand and fourteen plan for for elections and for political reform is to bring in some other representation alex side of the louis sect of society that is really important they're not the majority and the idea that a minority can continue to hold on to a country indefinitely is. historic and anachronistic that's a good point richard i mean if i saw what i know the u.s. has always says assad has to go on i'm getting tired of hearing that after two years because he's still there and there's not much to move him there but it's just that this is a really good point it's incumbent upon assad to reach out to other syrians because the status quo is untenable before the civil war and now the civil war it's really up to him if he wants to make it work you agree or not. to

his backers. you know he. on your program. she may be more critical of the administration of washington than i am but that's the role of the the the fact is we should be thinking also about what are russia and what could do to influence. approach i mean the russians got assad to the table but we did you know it's a side got them to the table at least that's what he claims ok that's a lot that's a lot because i don't so you have a lot of other people on the other side of the table agreeing to sit down know is hillary pointed out as time passes more and more people may want to sit down and will see their i mean i don't know what else russia can do except you can bring a horse to water but you can't make them drink richard. who gave the push to get rid of the chemical weapons program was not all so often routed to damascus so wasn't some persuasive evidence of

a russian push that this is in your best interest do it now do you make a save you saved barack obama from a disaster and the entire region i think that was a very good diplomatic move hillary want to jump in. i agree and i think this about the united states and our so-called allies in the middle east have fought for at least the past ten years probably before that but much more so since the end of the cold war and post nine eleven that we can use military means to affect political outcomes that is just not the case and i think russia not because it's russia but because it is using diplomacy it is using international law it is using the security council for what it was intended to do which is to keep peace and security those are the keys that we have to go forward with and i think it's important that that russia has brought syria to the table not only for geneva two the chemical weapons issue the iranians to have done this not only backing a political process for syria but in other conflicts throughout the region they are

focused on bringing in more representation not to have a western. liberal secular democracy but you have representative government in iraq in lebanon in afghanistan so i think we should bring them in bring that expertise that they bring to the table by negotiate with the current iranian foreign minister to have a jury over drive and zarif over afghanistan this was his focus then i think he could do it on syria but we keep insisting not just on preconditions but i'm pretty results that defy history and peace and security ok thank you very much for a fascinating discussion both of you many thanks to my guest today in washington and in new york and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at r.t. see you next time and remember crosstalk.

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