upside r.t. dot com slash usa follow me on twitter at a mirror david if you write back here at eight. hello and welcome to cross talk we're all things considered i'm peter lavelle shifting sands in alliances advances and reversals outside military interventions in stalemate these are among some of the descriptions that apply to the middle east since the start of the arab spring what are we experiencing in this turbulent region the end of the west from your colonial order that we drawing of the map or merely instability and violence with no end in sight.

to cross talk to developments in the middle east i'm joined by our son in washington he's a visiting scholar at the carnegie endowment for international peace and in london we crossed his aida leave he is a political analyst and writer i'm jumping cross talk rules and i think that means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encourage it if i go to you first in washington it's been a long two years in the greater middle east and then all started by calling it the arab awakening. do you like terms like that anymore does it does it have it does that resonate with you considering what's happened in so many different countries in this very volatile region. well i think the first thing to say is that i've never really considered it actually a useful term from the beginning and one of the things about the arab spring is the way people refer to it is that they sort of understood it as a transitional process that would lead to democracy but ultimately we had no idea whether that would be the case from the very beginning so if you talk to people

down the grounding karo in tunis except for what you find is that they refer to their individual revolutions as the tunisian revolution the egyptian revolution the syrian civil war and i think that's much a much better way of referring to it ok so how do you how do you feel about using the term arab spring arab awakening two years on because as we just heard i mean in each individual country circumstances are different but i think one could make the claim that a lot of the there are a lot of other issues that they have in common in common particularly western dictatorships supported by western powers i mean this is one commonality almost all of them avandia. well i mean this is absolutely true i mean we mustn't lose sight of the fact that what happened in the arab region which started off in tunisia and then rapidly spread and swept the arab region particularly going through egypt which is one of the most and the staunchest and closest ally of the united states was people actually standing up to. dictatorship

which where whole heartedly an emphatic supported by the usa the majority of the regimes were actually true supporters and allies of the united states and the people in those countries where fed up to their back teeth and were sick and tired of this board and the unlimited unwavering support to those dictatorships by the united states we've seen it happening in tunisia and then the popular uprising popular uprising spread to egypt and we've seen the united states that is obama taken aback and after a lot of posturing. and did that ring he withheld support to his name which actually upset one of the other most reliable irreplaceable allies of the united states. which thought that was the ultimate betrayal of another

ally one of the. one of the closest allies of the united states and we've seen. actually forgave the usa for turning its back on more bartok but in the long and the long run a new thought that todt the support of the army so it had a safety net it had an insurance policy in both egypt and. was that was one of the major reasons that actually the obama pulled the rug from under their feet. off mubarak knowing fully well that supporting this and portent pivotal point where the actually win over the conflict win over the support of the people to the army which actually took over power and diffused to relinquish power it was only after protests further yeah we did. that but we had to think that

talks more about indecision and the lack of strategery even understanding what's going on on the ground and how would you how would you look at how the western powers particularly the united states has dealt with events in the greater middle east over the last two years because you know we can look at each individual country in their specifics there but the bomber administration seems to be very unclear on what direction it needs to pursue because is it democracy is it security can you have both but i think the obama administration has demonstrated that actually the overall strategy of the united states is foot towards the middle east is ultimately flawed it's been flawed. we saw that with nine eleven the bush administration changed its mind decided to proceed with the way forward in the region and then almost leave that was that was roughly where the a bomb administration ended up but by the end of two thousand and ten when it done a policy planning review but now what we see is the arab spring funmi turned all of that on its head and we've just seen susan rice released a new policy planning review that says that security comes first and ultimately i

think that that's the united states state strategy in the region but security comes first not democracy it'll look ok so i think we've come full circle haven't we it's amazing so we have mubarak back in power under a different name ok we can i don't know what the arabic version of tunis she is but ok we've gone full circle haven't we but have the people on the ground benefited from any of this. i mean the trick is what the americans have done in going full circle they refused actually to back up the army which was what that sit with these demanded to back up hosni mubarak by actually unleashing against the people who rose up to defy mubarak but by actually allowing that muslim brotherhood to take on power and pursue misguided policies that are actually convince the people that they are after accumulating and monopolizing power and the muslim brotherhood actually

being forced to shift from its moderate teaching to islam in order to apply this. position and vehement oppositions by this these are actually of pursuing mordor radical what harvey said if your ideal that you have fallen out of favor by the egyptian people who actually ten round and supported the army so what the americans have achieved it having the army back in power and sisi actually attempting to go and put his name forward to. the elections and actually going full circle what happened also in the. in yemen and bahrain was actually americans giving the green light to tweet those two countries out there to back. it was a good having a lot of traffic here at once i want to talk about they will be in a second ok i kind of echo would say you had to say which i think is really very

interesting here is that it looks like under the guise of democracy or security whatever what flavor you prefer again it's rejigging the middle east or the united states still maintains a hedge a monic role this is what their ultimate goal is they don't really. care about the coloration of the regime as long as it plays into a security arrangement that washington can feel comfortable with and let's not forget tel aviv and riyadh. yeah i think that's true i think ultimately the security that having a hedge money over the regions of the stability whether that comes through democracy or through with or tearing regimes is ultimately the end game plan because the united states has too many interests in the region to allow it to fundamentally opposed to those interests so when the united states acts it always does with the view of you know what what how can how does this inform our counterterrorism policy how does its inform our counter-proliferation policy how

does this inform our energy policy it's this police of issues that comes to the fore with the united states there's and ultimately there's a massive conflict of interest problem that the united states has to deal with when it formulates its middle east policy if i can stay with you i guess been ghazi is where everything collides isn't it with the assassination of an american ambassador by a country that was liberated by nato. yeah i think that's true i mean the issue of the security situation in libya as it stands right now is fundamentally problematic what you have is al qaeda in the mag and various other terrorist organizations who are actually able to free flow throughout the region because of a lack of security a border security and what it does is it adds a whole level of new strategic importance so if you look at the way in which the united states has tried to deal with the region it was all positive about democracy up until the benghazi attacks and the and obviously the summertime use attacks in

tunisia the embassy engine is here and it's at that point the united states really steps back and says actually we're going to downgrade our presence in the region and we're going to start to look towards making sure that these stability and these interests are secured rather than promoting democracy throughout the realize. they've got actually i think they have decided to stay in the region they've got to you in london they've decided to stay in the region just more low profile through militaries working with dictatorships where they feel very comfortable work working with dictatorships we have decades of experience working with dictatorships like in saudi arabia it works for washington actually if you look at what happened on the ground if you look at what happened on the ground they are teaching their people that a lesson who those people who dared to rise up and defy their dictators where supported by that america are not now facing two options if you want a state security and limited economy progress then the have to stick with their dictators if you turn against those dictators stand up to them challenging them and

defy them then what are you going to get is insecurity in state more prominence and more and more. a great role for the al qaeda and a greater influence and prowess and also influence in that way and that he gen so that people are going to pick a stable. and security but if we look at what happened in benghazi it was actually the relentless intervention by the americans it was this relentless intervention which stripped the popular uprising. and deprived it and denied it its authenticity we've seen the american ten and also nato air force into an air force which was specifically backing up the rebels with tended to their own of their own force which followed. qaddafi to set and to benny what the

weather was absolutely ok no you don't have to jump in here gentlemen gentlemen i have to go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on events in the middle east state with our team. the i'm a celeb it was terrible they come up very hard to make out a letter to get along here is a plot that never had sex with others make their lives let alone.

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lisa bloom. is a. welcome back to cross talk where all things considered i'm peter lavelle to remind you that we're discussing the turbulent middle east. was about to go back to you in washington it was mentioned earlier in the. graham about saudi arabia and we see a possible reset some kind of reset with washington or saudi arabia going on its own that could be just all bluster nonetheless saudi arabia is a power broker right now we saw with egypt and we're seeing it with syria with the talk about syria in a second but you know is this the kind of country that is going to be the beacon of american democracy for the region saudi arabia really.

well i think. the the u.s. saudi relationship has always been built on security it always has been bit warm security since its founding and i think you know ultimately the relationship between security energy come to come together what this means is the u.s. saudi relationship is not a point of divorce there's a lot of tensions the saudis have for being far more vocal than they usually are disagreeing with the united states you know you could fighting for a position on the u.n. security council and then turning down the position is a clear demonstration effect of how saudi arabia is upset but these two powers on a point of divorce atoll and i think that yes there are problems that the united states has dealing with a regime of this sort but let's not forget all the relationships that the united states has throughout the region and various areas where it has been pushing so for

example tunisia has been a successful or looks to be a successful version of transition of nonviolent transition in the united states does seem to at least be backing that unity regime. as it steps forward with this transition process and it's the same with the european union as well we're. going to talk about iraq afghanistan libya i my goodness i mean tony. go ahead jump in going to jump in what we could see in tunisia is it exactly exactly i repeat. of what happened in egypt where the misnomer brotherhood is called another and we've seen actually the same forces which are the secular forces the x. . day. support is gathering got up and actually opposing and standing steadfastly determined to topple the party or the government which is

led by party so what we're witnessing in tunisia is a. in egypt but going back to what had been the sit with the i don't understand agree these are you can see what what this it would these have done that is invade and occupy another country which is the home of the fifth we could have taken place without the full consent of the americans and what we've actually seen any amend this is backed up by the americans come up with their own initiative which ostensibly is called the gulf cooperate cult cooperation council initiative which is. the initiative to replace one dictator that is easy to end in a place and by another dictator which is a staunch ally. that is to protect its own backyard garden and the invasion of about rain and the occupation against the overwhelming majority of the people who stood out to that rainy dictatorship which is by the way the first family where the prime minister has been there as long as one america has been there is still

supported emphatically and have it by ok as i said. earlier and i mean let me let ours react react to that that was a mouthful there go ahead. well i think that ultimately if we if you look at what's going on you if you take a short term analysis and look at the events as they're happening on the ground you can pick a lot of things that look as if these transitions are. undergoing a trauma but actually you know there are more positive steps there's constitutions being negotiated there's national dialogue being undertaken these are all positive things they are new things in the region and ultimately they point towards a more democratic transition for the region let's not forget that the arab spring is a crisis moment in national politics it is the moment in which you can't put the genie back in the bottle because the people on the ground in those countries where the right now in for example in egypt there is a nationalist swing towards general sisi but do we really think that sisi is going

to be able to install. become an old story terry and without the people rising up again i don't think i don't think that's going to happen i don't think it's possible i think we need to get past the fact that the united states and the european union are intervening in the region in whatever way and start looking down on the ground where civil society movements political movements are beginning to rise out of that because. we didn't see illusions what we see is a return to. from a western perspective hang on guys from a western perspective people vote the wrong way sometimes you know what i mean they're not all jeffersonian ok go ahead because democracies are tricky thing you can vote for things people of the west don't like like i do believe that the change which is taking place is actually inside saudi arabia now saudi arabia have backed up and emphatically supported the radical regime as the bastion of dictatorship but in doing that what has been laid bare to its own people they have discovered that

this is not what it has put right itself or depicted this for decades that it is they've got the end the indisputable protector of sunni islam because they have thrown its weight its grown its support behind dictatorship and it has been spearheading at the forefront of actually supporting dictatorship which are against the sunni people who rose up in egypt and tunisia which have exposed this to these . people and that's why we see that it is going out of their way now to try to stand up and forment a sectarian war in syria and also it's ok i want to talk about syria the second is i did talk about syria in a second here are you going to go if you're going to go back to arms and launch and i mean we've this is a very interesting point do you think that the western powers understands the significance of the different the sunni shia divide because again you know you can have western powers interested in security how they define it but you know riyadh

looks at things in a very different way they have a very different perspective and it is have to do with their religious faith what is i'm in that case and it's something that it actively exports we'll talk about syria in a second i mean is that a collision there that cannot be resolved. i think the only what we need to say is that the saudi regime is actually in trouble the saudi regime isn't going to have the sort of money that it has now to stop. stop a populist uprising taking place so i think that means that what we need to do with ease keep an eye a close eye on what's happening in saudi politics there is still a popular movement going on there now to go directly to your question i think that no i don't think the divisions and understanding of the different types of islam of fully understood in washington but i think it's something that over the last ten years is becoming better understood i think the way it seen here is you know saudi arabia and iran have tensions with each other and there's a global sort of

a global a regional game going on ok let's change gears and talk about syria here and again you know we it's move on to syria how would you how does syria fit in to what's been happening in the greater middle east last two years in exception or is something very different in some people would say that it is this is a block to western influence of penetration into the middle east finally it is a game changer of one sort or another do you agree or disagree with that yeah what i think is a major point that we need to be acutely aware of is that this is the regime when he lies heavy on the one harvey sellafield religious establishments that is that there were hard. yesterday well how the ideology and it is one of the main points of deception which i think the bait and deceptive myth has been under rubble now and it's falling apart that the sunnis have discovered that these are trying to

stir up a sectarian war in both iraq and syria in order to demonstrate that they do this in the people that it is in gauged in a in an existential engaged in combating and confronting an extension threat from there she has namely from iran in order to stave off an internal uprising and the banks are. it's far easier for them to pull the rug from under the feet of those people who are standing up to this regime and that's why we've seen this over these throw this help or to behind what is what they perceive as a sunni movement in syria but in doing so according that is to the new york times and according to even. that of iraq all the funding the majority of the funding arming logistical support and even paying salaries which have been exposed by the guardians have went to propping up shoring up and adding influence to jet had to nuss right they actually could have created which according to our go back

to back that is part and parcel of merely an extension for the. uk that's why they played them again into all major all in reviving and ultimately each of one thing and al qaeda in iraq and that's why we've seen that tremendous influence and prowess of iraq which have if you don't attack on a daily basis against the shia a lot of iranian kate's living let me go let me go about it is i mean in iraq in syria is this in america's interest in western powers interest to get involved in such a conflict because it's a nexus tension conflict between saudi arabia and iran why don't we just kind of stand back from this one because we're getting sucked in or trying to get sucked in into syria people criticize obama but i think he was smart to take putin's idea and back off because western outside influences are not going to resolve this issue in syria and this is why i'm asking because it is it again. i think you have to sort

of understand it has multiple levels what the diplomatic route if we can get the geneva two process on the way that is a positive step in the right direction and therefore you know where western intervention should come is the level of diplomacy we have to get these people around the table to solve this problem this is the greatest humanitarian crisis that we. now face going back to a question about whether serious acception or not i think what you need to understand is why syria and in fact libya turned out to be fun and revolutions in the way that they were and dieties has to do with the nature of the study the stuff the why in which the security operators of those two countries was tied to the regimes itself meant that ultimately if the regime way and the security apparatus of those countries went as well so when. people to fire upon civilians and protest a peaceful protest as they will do it in tunisia and egypt that was not the cat all right gentlemen i want to jump in here with me and i know our time many thanks to

my guests today in washington and in london and thanks to our viewers for watching us here dorothy see you next time and remember. these. i would rather as questions to people than positions of power instead of speaking on their behalf and that's why you can find my show larry king now right here on

our t.v. question or. but . usually they're no more than fifteen thousand years old this one dates back twenty five maybe. you know. oh. water in the lake is helping scientists the mysteries of the universe. i tried to see by carl in its entirety. it's not that i have discovered something new here rather that i absorb everything but this place offers.

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there's just too much. of a. patriot soldiers i'm abby martin and this is breaking the set you know the last thing i ever ever expected to come out of a nobel peace prize winners mouth is this i am really good at killing people yes folks according to a new book double down our beloved president constitutional lawyer nobel laureate rock obama apparently loves to brag about how well he can execute human beings with drones now i know you're thinking it's probably the republicans making him say such things because you know he can't look weak on defense but shockingly no it's all the credit of barry you see during the two thousand and twelve elect.