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hello and welcome to cross talk we're all things are considered i'm peter lavelle ukraine and the prospects of peace preliminary talks of a limited nature underway to avoid an all out civil war so it remains to be seen whether the regime in syria one thing is certain violence only divides ukraine.

the situation in ukraine i'm joined by my guest. in washington he's director of the rice institute for serbian studies in columbus we have john quickly he is a professor emeritus at ohio state university who dealt with the crimea issue at the request of the state department and here in moscow we cross to erich krauss he's an independent political risk analyst all right gentlemen crosstalk rules in fact that means you can jump in anytime you want and i very much encouraged the boys to do we have a light at the end of the tunnel we have inform all. of the powers that be in care who are keeping their hands off it but there are some talks starting in ukraine about resolving this horrific crisis any optimism on your in your mind. unfortunately peter i'm not optimistic at all i think this is just a smokescreen to provide for another offensive against the two regions in the east i have not seen any sort of tangible proof that kiev is ready to negotiate and what is there to negotiate their so-called fifteen point peace plan is basically calling for unconditional surrender and poroshenko is inauguration speech basically said

he's not willing to condone any sort of federal is ation or equality in ukraine so i'm not really sure what is there to make out of this except for just another smokescreen john in colombia do you see this is a smokescreen because we had a number of conversations between putin and merkel poroshenko in merkel and the french president hollande there's a lot of pressure now on camp to do something to start simmering this down we had also putin asked the federation council here in russia to withdraw the authority to send in russian troops to protect russian speakers and russians in in east ukraine i mean there's movement internationally there's some diplomacy happening here that's right i am a bit more optimistic i think the fact that mr putin has taken the step that you mentioned of vesting the parliament to withdraw his authority to intervene. that will put some additional pressure on the government in kiev to reciprocate in. some

fashion it is true that the government here has been slow and these matters especially on federalization are some kind of status and i think that's where the pressure on the government needs to be put. to be helpful if the western governments would would make that pressure felt on them so that he would understand it but he needs to do that it needs to do something real in order to assure the russian speakers in eastern ukraine that their situation is going to be acceptable and that they will have some kind of control over their own political status ok eric it's i think it's really quite interesting is that we for the first time during this crisis we see a lot of european diplomacy we don't see a victoria nuland in the picture at least at this moment in time it's the europeans waking up that they take all the costs of this crisis in ukraine the americans take nothing that's right basically the germans in particular mrs merkel finds

herself in a lose lose situation she cannot first of all she does not wish to and secondly she cannot impose real sanctions i mean up until now with due respect the sanctions have been a bit of a joke. and german business is totally aligned against that and so there is a lot of bluster there's a lot of threat but there is you know there is very little real this very little they can really do so what is pretty interesting is in the last few days reading carefully their public statements they are now critical of both sides and they're saying well we want to see if the ukrainian side is serious about negotiating too so european policy was hijacked by the one hand the balts the polls. on the other hand washington and it seems like the senior

countries are taking it back and other words you're going to get a split in europe which the european union does not need another split they do need to put this problem to bed. so i can understand your pessimism ok i mean because i've seen these situations play out before however you point blank it just doesn't really have a military it's quite ragtag unfortunately when they start their shelling their whoever's doing this they seem to hit kindergartens and schools they don't seem to know what they're doing they're very not professional though they can kill people here because waking up to that fact too that he just doesn't have the military to get to have a long term offensive but maybe you're right maybe he's just looking for a breather. well the reports coming in from the actual battlefront are very conflicting and confused ranging from you know the rebels being obliterated as a matter of days to the government forces being caught in

a trap so i'm not really sure what to make of them but i think what this looks to me what with my experiences in the balkan wars is that it's a play for time because in a couple of days kiev is supposed to sign the association agreement with the e.u. at which point the position of the junta and poroshenko would be incredibly strengthened and then they can impose demands from from what they see as a position of strength and they wouldn't have to have the european diplomacy behind this is what i think this is the ploy i think this is what they're stalling for success ok or jump in i really don't think the association agreement this is the economic chapter of the association agreement and it means very little other than the end of eastern ukrainian industry which cannot conceivably compete with the german. i think is his his means are limited at this point his army is

ragtag yes they can kill a lot of people but there is another problem which is that ukraine cannot as an economic entity cannot be solved without russian participation take the example of the reunification of germany i mean this cost hundreds of billions of dollars and it's costing it still today and it was only one country which could and was willing to make that kind of sacrifice and that was you know because it was real if occasion of the heimat this is not going to be the case for ukraine who is going to bailout ukraine who the ukrainians were led to believe that they were about to have european passports and the european lifestyle and they were screwy misled and as soon as the crisis dies down there is going to to have. deal with the reality of that let's talk about the ending the crisis here john back in columbus here it's been mold for months now but it seems to me that has to happen it's some form of federalization decentralization that is the solution here yearning you studied the

crimean situation here i mean the way to keep ukraine one country is to decentralize it we're all have a voice i think that's right and when i was involved this is twenty years ago with the ukraine we have of the sea. that where we were headed to crimea did get some out of turn we had didn't get as much as i thought you needed and what i was proposing at that time and what i think might be helpful now is to have another time to meet with some kind of international oversight for that is you you would have something set up under the constitution of ukraine but if the autonomy of the eastern regions is infringed in some way there would be recourse that could be taken at the international level you know we always have reasonable people on this program what we just heard from john is very reasonable but victoria

nuland won't let that happen will she and i wonder how jen psaki would spin that if she were understood federalization or decentralization was all about go right ahead . well the problem with this is that the crimean autonomy is not on the table crimea is part of russia that solve that issue is not for negotiation as far as federalization of the rest of ukraine. that might have been on the table three months ago four months ago after what just happened i don't think these people in the east are ever going to want to come back into the same into the same country as the people in kiev especially as the people in the west from where most of the conscripts killing them were taken. and we shouldn't be talking just about autonomy from four agents in the east of to put it for a federal system to actually work every region in ukraine needs to have equal rights and there need to needs to be

a stop to the efforts to impose this artificial identity which is anti russian and just twentieth century construct that has nothing to do with tradition or history of the region and that unfortunately is not going to happen because both of whom to end their backers in the west seem intent for this to go through so i honestly don't know whether a federal is ation is an option anymore it may have been a couple months ago it may have been in march when it was originally agreed on but then they went to went ahead with the military operation because it visitors from washington telling it to go ahead now we have a situation where the military operation has stalled and again we have visitors from washington so let's see what's going to happen next let me go back to john in columbus here i mean if we don't get a federalization or decentralization of power in ukraine then the people in the east are going to feel like they're under occupation nothing less considering what has happened over the last few weeks and months. i think that's right but i think they probably will have to accept some kind of federal ization or enemy simply

because their options are limited. those who are in control in these two wanted to go with russia to do what had been. then with crimea but the russian government has closed that door so the russian government is really forcing them to accept something within the constitutional framework of ukraine every eric you know it seems to me it's very interesting russia always gets criticized what's going on for what happens in ukraine just by default here but one of the interesting things is the russians have constantly said the ukrainians must solve their own problems yeah well i b d ukraine has become a political football the it basically started with the neo cons who were trying to score points against russia they don't much care what happens to the ukrainians east or west and i don't think they have very much understanding of what the

situation was and they. have been poisoning the well as it were now russia needs a neutral ukraine russia on that on that point we have to go to a short break and after that short break we'll continue our discussion on ukraine stay with our team. i'm out in the stories we cover here we're not going to hear any other big story. and talk there's a reason they don't want you to know for. now let's break the

set. you know general macarthur once said americans never quit that was when there was something worth fighting for before fraud was the only way of life post gold standard abandonment and bankruptcy before the population grew morbidly obese down in bargain cans of processed food bought at the company store wal-mart where their food stamps what the furthest before the air raids were filled with patriotic scoundrels demanding perpetual war which can never be funded by a low wage high food stamp economy. right on the scene. first for you and i think you're. on our reporters. in.

the in the. cross talk were all things considered i'm peter lavelle remind you we're discussing the temporary truce in ukraine. ok time to go back to eric here in moscow eric you don't want to be a putin is criticised for doing too much in ukraine and he's criticized for doing too little in ukraine but i think from the russian perspective there's a much longer plan to watch as we watch things unfold in ukraine go ahead yes putin is playing the long game but we've got to realize there is

a thousand year relationship between ukraine and russia russia but. begins in ukraine keven reuss. a very large part of the ukrainian population has roots in russia has family in russia works in russian speaks russian it is in it is in symbiosis with russia and cannot exist in opposition to russia neither economically nor socially what is interesting and i think people are missing is the fact that poor shape who did said who did poor shane can send to represent ukraine yeah mr kuchma now this seems to be a way if he is looking to cut a deal which made that please the hard right i would say fascist sections in the private sector. then it would be ideal for cushman to sign that deal because then poor could sue the washes hands of it and say well it wasn't me so they do need to find some sort of solution and time is not working for them

russia has a lot more time to let this play out now what do you think about that very interesting character. he basically created a ukraine run by oligarchy that's his greatest legacy but he didn't shoot anybody or at least in the not too many and they didn't either i mean we have a president now we're ashamed of it's killing a lot of ukrainians that may be his legacy too but i want to go back to a point that that eric made it's very interesting is that he doesn't want to get his fingerprints on this yet because he he's i don't believe that he's powerful enough this president is very very weak he looks over a show on one shoulder washington the other one right sector that's not a very good position to be in is it it isn't which is why i don't believe that he is behind a peace deal i'm hearing obviously he looks to me like a figure that's taking all marching orders from from the people that you mentioned and the right sector is definitely not interested in any sort of peace deal there

or their intent is to create. the entire ukraine based on some vision by step on bond era well as washington wanted a crisis and it got a crisis so again i understand that time is not on their side and that their only hope was a quick victory which has failed but i don't really know what their end game is aside from trying to pull wool over people's eyes and then restart the whole propaganda about russian aggression in a more opportune point well john since putin asked to have the resolution to allow russia to deploy troops into ukraine that's been taken back now i mean it's going to be pretty hard to keep pointing fingers at russia again it's the ukrainians that have to figure this out themselves and i've seen it leads them from of the reports or european diplomacy back to i mean it's care has to start doing something. i think that's right and i think that the government here of mr parrish

is under some serious restraints with respect to how much force he can use years now you know now is the of course the there's temporary truce. but i think that's in part because he sees that the population in eastern ukraine is simply not going to put up with a great deal of firepower coming from here and that it's going to backfire and make things worse so i think he while he may not want to greet or some sort of donna may or federalization think it's under great pressure to do so eric you mentioned the fear the association agreement you know the day that a sign russia reacts in its own interests explain to our audience what russia will do well russia is going to slap customs duties on ukrainian exports and the eastern ukrainian exports the only possible market for them is russia the reason

they're going to do this is because if you create opens its borders to european exports and they have open borders with russia then this means that russia is accepting a totally balanced trade deal with the e.u. where the e.u. could export anything it wants duty free into russia but there's nowhere to process these so russia is going to tighten up controls are you created exports and you've got to understand that ukraine has something like six million guest workers in russia sending the home remittances its only supply of energy is russia it's only markets for its industrial production the industrial production goes east does not go west so it's extremely integrated and if they choose integration with europe which they're apparently going to do they're going to come out losing at it the real question i think at this point is. has ukraine been irretrievably broken

or not i mean i don't know after the horrors of odessa one would imagine that it's going to take some time to repair if it's repaired if it's repairable at all. as a unitary state now boy you can't tell if you're agreeing or disagreeing with erick go ahead and jump in. i'm agreeing with erick in that respect but i'm wondering whether that's what they're waiting for because then they then they will stay in kiev will say ok well russia has to you know put a border toward study it's going to look gonski and therefore you know it will recognize the territorial integrity of ukraine and these regions will be completely blockaded from both sides to me this is eerily reminiscent of what happened in croatia twenty some years ago when the serbian population which was similarly disenfranchised by by the authorities in zagreb rebelled the creation militia tried to suppress them they failed the quote unquote international community came in set up

a temporary truce line deployed un peacekeepers. deployed international presence engine armistice and then sat there for three years while the croatians were arming preparing and all the while insisting on so-called reintegration and then in one thousand nine hundred five they launched a full scale invasion and simply obliterated these regions because they've had time to prepare and these people have been disarmed by the un peacekeepers i'm afraid and this is exactly what's going to have what they're planning to happen in this case as well you know get some sort of armistice introduce the observers introduce some sort of peacekeepers disarm to people in the east and then you know if six months a year two years down the line launch a full fledged military invasion and say hey ukraine is just reestablishing its territorial integrity and you know however many people die in the process so be it i think again i don't have a reason to hope that this is going to be resolved let alone peacefully in the near future john push a kid needs some victories here because every time he opens them his mouth he gives

a deadline and that deadline passes and he never gets what he wants again the people that have put him in power his backers and on the mind don they're the getting impatient here i mean there was a major demonstration not reported by western media i would like to point out on the my dime in over the weekend they were very much against this military offensive he's got to start getting some results here or else his power base is going to be threatened. i think that's right i think this is already been said he's being pushed from different sides he doesn't have a huge power base of his own. and i think he is under considerable pressure to to achieve some kind of resolution i mean it may be that he's playing for time and it was just suggested that in the long run he will then. gauge in some major military offensive i'm not sure that he's thinking in those long term.

approach is that i think he's probably got to think about the short term. who want to jump in here ok they're going to jump in definitely because there is no long term for this kind of policy going you know he's he's definitely dealing with the situation trying to great and trying to grab hold of it before he himself loses his power base and we have to remember and i understand the point about croatia and i think it's very well put but ukraine does not have the luxury to engage in that policy because ukraine as an economic entity is non-viable we've had three ukrainian defaults this week these sovereign can stay viable only by borrowing massively from the i.m.f. which is going to saddle them with an repayable debt which they and their children will be paying. the the industry has basically shut down they get all of their gas

from russia they're susceptible to a cut off it's russia simply implements visa restrictions that they lose all the guest workers the remittances from the guest workers so they are not in a strong position to wait a couple of years and cleverly play on their next move they're trying to survive. my suspicion of all of this is is that the people in the east have to wait for my about my down three because that's what's going to happen this political regime. this neo fascist regime it's a non cannibal it cannot exist status quo is that you can't maintain it for too long you have no we cannot make results you have no security results you have no results zero zero zero and you know these kind of people they like results ok they don't they're not big thinkers ok they like action. well i agree but who is going to overthrow the fascists more fascists i mean they're the ones with guns i'm not optimistic about my down three because in all likelihood it's going to bring about an even worse crowd into power and again we talk about portion of his power base

his power base is in washington he cannot possibly do something that will alienate his washington's backers and if washington is telling him to fight he'll fight if washington is telling him to fold he'll fold it regardless of whether it is in ukraine's interest or not the economic considerations are simply not in the play here he will do as he is told going to disagree there i think that his power base is still the ukrainian i would arche he is our regard he has his he is supported by the people who really wield power in ukraine and they are looking to continue their business i mean this whole thing this is people keep imagining that the evolution of ukrainian politics has been about politics it hasn't it's been about money it's been about power you had the orange revolution which was simply one oligarchy faction replacing another they were unsuccessful

they got pushed out by a covert faction who has now been pushed out by another faction which is going to try to consolidate its economic they never it was never able to do that gentlemen we've run out of time many thanks to my guests in washington columbus and here in moscow and thanks to our viewers for watching us here darkie see you next time and remember crosstalk. placed slaves are trying to play polo going to.

fight for. the taking every minute. and play all the weapons. like the players playing the same setting all time place cases most elite players sometimes for nothing exclaimed this season and. it's not just keep up the story he's just if you see a stage play take look easy. but the taliban was playing . the blame will go into the future please

show the city full can just bend over the team billion euros i'm told his head says to be one hundred fifty million degrees with uncle mark to tool to sell something pisco to france the trouble in such a song played on we've got the future covered. look right on the street. the first street to use a knife gripping pictures. on a reporter's twitter. and instagram. could be a month. on mom. his name was joseph copas he was nazi germany's minister of propaganda the midst that

he created exist to this day. eucharist gerbils propaganda was posing are simply trying to denigrate other nations while at the same time raising ordinary german so studiously to. keep its complete use of go bill sniff precisely what the masses need to hear in order to make them follow him he was like the pipe paper from the fairy tale who made the rats fall to the tune of the spite of. the myths created by the chief nazi ideologist bound for tal soil in the west we have to fight these myths today in memory of those who walked in the second world war.

russian lawmakers repealed permission to deploy troops to ukraine in a move to support peace efforts we get reaction from the president of the parliamentary sam we are the council of europe. levy and are voting for a new parliament but few are expected to turn algeria worst security crisis in years and public apathy towards the embattled government. and with half a million bits of space junk orbiting earth at lighting speeds we'll talk to the man who thinks he can save our satellites from almost certain destruction and make big bucks in the process.