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tv   Boom Bust  RT  July 4, 2014 4:29am-5:01am EDT

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but they clearly for mrs obama she could be fired from being the first lady only divorced or her husband's term ends now for me and every other person saying their opinion on camera we've got to be a lot more careful but that's just my opinion. about seven years old it's one of the largest ten cities on the east coast of america got about one hundred people here just because about you know the cost of housing in this area especially is very high and i believe there's an american we have a right. possess public land until something is created that's my house you see back there live it send them to well. then spend the. rest . if we had done we wouldn't have been home i want to go we don't just you know people the density we don't anybody that needs help so tell your friend to
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just take care of him or a mistake on never going to get a sense of the internet one fell swoop got a place to live once on monday i'll be out here with my dog. there i marinate this is boom bust and these are some of the stories that we're tracking for you today. it's the first friday of the month kind of and that means bill us numbers are out jobs numbers came out ahead of the holiday weekend here in the u.s. and it looks like a clear sky forecast for the fourth of july again i am referring to the jobs numbers and not the weather and we're talking tech with alex daley today the senior editor of casey's extraordinary technology is telling us what he thinks about the tech bubble and where growth will come from. it and edward harris and i are
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tackling your viewer feedback in our weekly a rooting interest segment she won't want to miss a moment and it all starts right now. with. our lead story today the jobs report now good news ahead of your holiday weekend here in the u.s. private sector job creation surged in the month of june with companies adding two hundred eighty one thousand new jobs now according to the bureau of labor and statistics non-farm employment and then study seasonally adjusted rate of two hundred eighty eight thousand last month and the combined gains for the prior two months were revised up now april's increase to three hundred four thousand was the
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strongest we've seen since january of two thousand and twelve and june also marks the best five month stretch of job creation since early two thousand and six the gains were broad based with pretty much every industry having payrolls service sector and small businesses led the way adding about two hundred thirty thousand new positions goods the producers contributed fifty one thousand while professionals and business services were the top industry with seventy seven thousand jobs trade transportation utilities added fifty thousand and there were thirty six thousand new construction jobs now the unemployment rate acquired this is acquired from a separate survey of households fell to six point one percent in june the lowest level since september two thousand and eight and the data also delivers a welcome signal of economic health after output shrunk in the first quarter at its fastest pace since the recession the results were better than expected a condom as had forecast an increase of roughly two hundred fifteen thousand payrolls and. unchanged jobless rate of six point three percent u.s.
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stocks climbed after the report with the dow jones topping seventeen thousand and the dollar also gained as the jobs report we kinda worries that the fed might start raising interest rates sooner rather than later which led to lower government bond and gold prices so it looks like all the crummy weather that so many economists said was behind once contraction is finally subsiding let's just hope the clear sky forecast holds true for the actual whether it's fourth of july we've got. the current thinking is a relative term the euro took a major hit during the financial crisis and the eurozone is still struggling to deal with an adequate fiscal architecture so the question is what would you hold well that's the subject of my next guest professor ishwar precedes wrestles with in
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his book the dollar trap looks at the u.s. dollars continued future as the major world reserve currency and i first asked him if you could explain the main thesis of his book here's what he had to say. the main thesis is that there dollars that all is the dominant global reserve currency is not going to be taken away if it's gone but if there's an the biggest by other dogs is a big global financial crisis which had its origins in the united states and which was followed by a huge amount of money being printed by the federal reserve which means more dollars in the system and the huge build up of debt should all have led to a decline in the dollars of value and in the dollars prominence of the global reserve currency instead the diverse happened everybody wore safety because of the financial turmoil and it's gone so the dollar has fared everybody comes to for safety where there you have it now what are some of the flaws and some of the strength of the u.s. dollar now the u.s. dollar is strong because if this is really to be a stroller we didn't. initial finance appearance that everything is there live my
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book is not a story about american exceptionalism by any means but it does point to the fact that if you look at competent there is to their dollar there really aren't any significant competitors the udall was hurt by the financial crisis china's are in a beast trying to play it all but if you look at a country that is very deep broad financial markets there really isn't much of an alternative to the dollar which is why the world continues to come to the u.s. dollar for safety ok now one of our very very favorite guests on the show mr jim rickards and a personal friend he believes that the dollar status as a reserve currency will be shaken up you know in this coming currency crisis so let me play a clip for you we have a bite from him you can hear this. you know no doubt that the dollar is leading reserve currency today but they have confidence in the dollar is weak and because the fed policy or the kind of issues we're talking about financial warfare people going to look for other safe havens i would say gold is number one the euro is another one and i was you know as i've said all along the you know the oars to
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a little bit because the recent actions by the e.c.b. but not that much and i think it's found the floor and probably go back up against the euro as one of my my favorite currency so that's an alternative so you have gold in the euro out there now the real alternative to the dollar it's not yet taken center stage but expect it will sooner than later is the special drawing right where the as you are this is a kind of world money printed by the i.m.f. it's not backed by anything it is just like any other printing money like the dollar or the euro ok now where do you differ with jim basically on how likely this will play out right before it almost every point essentially first of all logic would certainly dictate that that position is a valid one but because of the fragility of the u.s. financial system because of the huge amount of u.s. public debt build up the u.s. dollar should be weaker but in fact what has happened after the global financial crisis and crisis following ben you said the word. it demands more safety central
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banks around the world want more safety private investors want safety and the reality is that there is no other place to go traditional safe havens like japan and switzerland don't want money coming into the economy so they've been exporting capital buying up hard currency reserves the util isn't quite what it used to be no no the safe part of the euro zone is very small so if you want safety the reality is that there is no other place to go and this is what the market shows as since two thousand and seven the amount of publicly traded debt issued by the us is about three and a half trillion dollars and i'm sorry five and a half trillion dollars and three and a half trillion dollars of that sixty percent has been bought by foreign investors they would love to have alternatives but they really don't have any viable once right now it is what it is now as for what you take on you know growing economic influences of emerging markets and what's happening in the so-called currency wars in that context you know certainly it is true that you have to move things happening in paddle one just the declining economic and political influence of the
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u.s. even while the u.s. dollar itself remains very strong and this i think speaks to the fundamental strength of the u.s. as not just deep and broad financial markets but a political structure that is self-correcting although it seems to be stuck in gridlock at the moment over time it does so it could take and the world has tremendous confidence in the u.s. public institutions like the federal reserve and the judicial system in the u.s. and this is very important for foreign investors to have confidence when they invest in the u.s. so i don't think this is going to go away the emerging markets are developing but right know that the ality is that they are stuck in the middle of capital flow volatility because the big central banks the fed b.c.b. the b.o.j. are creating a lot of capital flow volatility so they want more protection and break and they go for protection they don't trust the i.m.f. so they accumulate more hard currency reserves to protect themselves from this volatility and where do they go to park these reserves back to the u.s. dollar. the dollar. now china china is still playing catch up china's train
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very hard to make its currency an important currency and have made a lot of progress in having it be an international currency now if they love the currency to float freely if the capital account is opened up so that investors can move freely in and out of financial markets in china if china develops its financial markets i can see the chinese and b. becoming a reserve currency but will it be a safe haven couldn't see one but foreign investors trust my answer to that is no now in asia do you see rb now max as having any impact outside of japan that's a key outside of japan. has to be one it's monetary policy one is fiscal policy and structural reforms just last week but i'm going to be indicated that he was going to unleash that at all but really it's the first at all monetary policy that has been working very hard and monetary policy in japan means trying to stalk inflation by having the yen depreciate but if you want to enter depreciate it's going to it's
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got to depreciate against somebody so asian emerging markets are very concerned about this and it also means more than money flowing into the asian emerging markets which would lead to their currencies appreciating so they in effect turning that around and trying to buy yen all the other assets like dollar assets in order to prevent their currencies from appreciating so it is going to lead to some cut in sea tensions in the region. that was professor ishwar person author of the dollar tree up. time now for a very quick break but stick around because when we return alex in delhi is on the program alec sat down with me to talk all things tech it's a great segment with him and we have an early edition of accrued interest for you this week edward harris and i are tackling your feedback today on the show and don't forget you can see all segments featured in the search today on you tube at youtube dot com slash boom bust our teeth and on hulu and hulu dot com slash boom bust.
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or is probably the most complex human to. hold. on. to the phenomenon of friendly fire probably extends back to the invention of gunpowder. kill a bunch of people who don't know the one thing the trouble is they're really us people. reading. this something shoots my brother in the leg not intentional because it because it was night time for the warning even the best even the best shoulders. are going to make
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mistakes does this whole idea of brotherhood order. and camaraderie in this set that was in this context that has absolutely no place. as a new position. i swear to abide by that the credit goes. to the best of my ability and judgment. i will prescribe for the good as my patients. i will not give deadly doses to anybody. or advise others to do so. i will never do harm to. doctors of the darkside on. numbers or the people in queues
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independence square were not terrorists and the people of the bus they are the terrorists. just because we don't agree with what kiev is trying to impose on us and stand by our old conviction this is the new people in the us would. welcome back to the show now in the mobile market we have known heavyweights samsung and apple are the obvious big players however the mobile device market in developed countries seems to be slowing down and rather rapidly now especially as new mobile devices tend to last longer and do more than ever before now i spoke with alex daly about this very subject and we also looked at possible signs of a bubble in the tech market along with where growth is headed in the mobile and wearable space and alex is senior editor of casey's extraordinary technology and i
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started our discussion by asking alex about the print money twenty fourteen conference in san francisco where these see professionals venture capitalist professionals we're talking bubbles the market and reason says that there isn't a bubble so i want to get alex's take on it here's what he had to say. i don't think that there's necessarily a bubble and. definitely a little bit of fraud what we're seeing with technology companies are is a combination of a few things one because the sarbanes oxley companies are going to market much much later the jobs act was supposed to change that we've seen a handful handful of jobs act i.p.o.'s sneak through like fusion io who went out at about a nine hundred million dollar valuation and just got bought a couple of weeks ago for one point one billion dollars taken off the market but we're seeing effectively acquisitions happen earlier and we're seeing i.p.o.'s happen later and what that means is there's a lot of room for venture capital companies now that said there seems to be a lot of what i would call dead capital following behind on these deals series c.
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series d. rounds where they're investing one hundred one hundred fifty million dollars in startups that are frankly just going to disappear but that's the difference between venture investors and standard investors you know you and i will look at our stock portfolio if the investment goes to zero we're probably a little bit concerned there and since i'm going to knock out a good amount of our capital that is a venture capitalist business plan is nine out of ten of the investments that they go in are just going to fail they're going to go to zero so not they're not afraid to bet one hundred million dollars or two hundred million dollars on a company that has the potential to grow to again eighteen billion dollars valuation a fifty billion dollars valuation a hundred billion what they're looking for is one tesla one facebook one twitter out of a four folio of dozens of companies and if they get that they'll make a huge return for their subscribers net though venture capitalists generally do worse than the market the average return for a venture capital firm over the last ten years has been about five percent or about
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two and a half points below the market so these guys are swinging for the fences but they miss most of the time they aim to miss about one out of every ten times in which case they easily beat the public markets but in reality they're missing about one out of every twenty times and they're falling behind the public markets that said the big firms sequoia kleiner perkins menlo capital these firms have made a. money it's definitely a market where these companies can put hundreds of millions of dollars in place of the public markets thanks to regulation and if anything the investors that are getting very very rich off of these markets the the andresen horowitz's of the world we should be looking at them and really looking at the government and saying hey how come individuals can no longer participate in these markets why is it so hard for the public markets to raise capital why is the government so set on trying to prevent protect investors from themselves the now they're affected lee handling the profits of the largest venture capital firms and making it harder and harder for the public markets to participate in any of these profit that's the problem
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it's not a tech bubble so much as it's just dearth of interest in our availability of the public markets for growth companies thanks to regulation. interesting now my producer edward spider risen blurb pointing to sagging mobile phone revenues in ireland and he thinks that this is not just related to the economic turmoil there the mobile market is in developed countries and develop economies pretty saturated both in terms of premium hands as in the number of people with mobile phones so where is the growth in the mobile going to come from. china simple as that the growth in the growth in mobile phones is going to come from the of creed from some phones to smartphones from simple handsets in places like china africa and india where hundreds of millions of users are still on the old fashion you know zero to nine zero keyboards no touchscreen what they call dumb phones qualcomm is estimating about two hundred to two hundred twenty million upgrades in the next two
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years from dumb phones to smartphones in that space and that is just going to pick up pace at this point there's proximately a billion smartphones in use out there out of about four billion cell phones but the growth is definitely as you say going to come not from markets where everybody has a smartphone in the u.s. sixty to seventy percent of phones are smart. phones nowadays in africa less than five percent of phones are smartphones so what you're really looking for is growth in the emerging markets and emerging markets are pretty interesting because it's not the same set of companies that own those samsung and apple don't have the same kind of dominance you know africa in poorer parts of asia and russia in these markets that are going to be part of the kind of the great upgrade these these companies don't have that same level of dominance and what we're seeing is an interesting new set of local homegrown companies potential resurgence for nokia and everybody sort of chasing those markets everybody's got a new phone targeted the two hundred or three hundred dollars price point gropes so
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something that's half the cost of the amazon fire phone or that galaxy s five you know everybody is shooting for the sort of low end smartphone trying to capture a piece of that market for the next few years that's where top line growth is going to come bottom line growth of course comes from having users who don't need a new phone every month they sell these phones virtually accost what you're really looking at is people are happy with their phone like they are with the i phone we're going to buy more software those are the people who are driving profits and so the companies that are going to stick profits over the next few years are really those ones in the in the developed markets who are serving with software and with services for that huge mobile phone population growth in the handset business in the big top line numbers definitely emerging markets. that haven't made a big deal about its new wearable centric platform health kit and you know that i'm pretty skeptical about the wearable face alex but seriously how do you see this and they have buy out all of them are but. i think it's going to be
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a boom but i think it's going to take a long time for it to come to pass you're seeing interest in wearables coming from effectively niche markets you're seeing a huge interest in health in fip it's in a nike fuel bands in those places what's not clear is are the people buying these things continuing to use them and finding value out out of them every day i think the problem with wearables today. is there still effectively the equivalent of a watch calculator from one thousand nine hundred five that yeah they're useful to those people who don't mind sort of being branded as that guy wearing google glass but as designs improve as these things happen you know the market will find that there's real utility here and not just the ability to check the time without getting your phone out of the pocket i'm talking about real real utility look at how many people walking around the mall hold their cell phone two feet out in front of their face and scream at it while apple just wants to provide a watch that they can scream at his dad the whole market of these people out there there's a whole market of people who are looking for the next cool gadget the thing that
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will make them look if the thing that will show off to their friends the conspicuous consumption so i think there is definitely a market for necklaces and watches and things that have some level of communications capability but until we see ubiquitous gesture control and voice control it's not really going to come to pass the smartphone market came around because they were able to turn the touchscreen which has been around since the nine hundred seventy s. into something that was really usable page to zoom features multi touch really high density screens that you could watch video on the touch screen came of age with the i phone and until speech recognition comes of age these devices with tiny little interfaces that link a few dots that you are of dubious usefulness so i think today it's great that we have a developer platform i don't think we're going to see. touch screen phones this really take off for another five to seven years at least. inner editor of casey's
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extraordinary technology time now for this week's accrued interest. interest time with edward harris and they ok now it's the end of the week and that means it's time for edward harrison and i to put you the viewer in the driver's seat letting you steer the show with your comments questions and concerns all sent to us throughout the week here twitter you tube and facebook time to dive right in first up an oldie and favorite writes in to say quote i am a facebook equal cia face hugger however that does not mean people should. facebook there's nothing wrong with fighting fire with fire making your opponent overextend or turning your weakness into a strength and your enemy strength or weakness ok i'm going to be honest i don't really get woman chooses trying to say here but if it is trying to say that
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facebook is in cahoots with the cia my thought remains the same facebook stinks and what are your thoughts comments concerns. whatsoever on facebook. if you really want. if if the head of facebook were. just getting everyone to report on where they're what they're doing and where they've been for the last ten years that he is the best it is a couple of very go but did ok so let's ask this what do you think about you know the psychological tests that facebook is conducting on its users so what about that you'd be surprised really that concerned with i didn't think that was not i think there's a what i would say is people make it out to be the thing that does concern me is the mental health implications for people who actually do have mental health issues it could be the sort of thing that you know just the cause of the brain leaving that kind of data. and. terms of privacy and that sort of about is concerned
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already next on our next remark comes from f r k t which i think is an abbreviation for free market it could be something else let us know quote so be i us got this b.s. right estimation point now what are we or anyone going to do about it it seems as though we've relegated ourselves to the fact that it's ok for the business cycle that the business cycle wash rinse and repeat itself again edge you think that the you know business cycle will wash rinse and repeat itself again have we relegated to really think you know exactly the things that got us into this are the things of the doing good i mean it's pretty clear to me that one percent interest rates in two thousand and three. to two thousand and five or whatever they started to raise rates is exactly one of the precursors of the housing bubble right the housing bubble was caused in part by low interest rates so what happens when the whole thing falls apart again they lower interest rates this does your zero percent and
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then they go on for good measure they think that this is actually a good and that this is going to spur a sustainable recovery i don't think it will i think that the whole thing is going to collapse and everyone's going to start pulling the thing with the fed yet again . for i'm katie wade and ellen now next stop us from octopus five who comments quote i don't believe there's any disconnect between the fed's intent and doing the fed's intent was to strengthen the balance sheet of the banks and financial institutions they got it but at the expense of main street on behalf of whose interest does the fed work for again wrong answer you and me ed you believe that the fed exists and operates solely to benefit you and me no i think the operate in order to maintain. the payment system and basically what it boils down to is in terms of finances debility even though. low interest rates in my opinion are if they're abnormally low which i believe they are and they form and instability. over
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the longer term when there is a crisis with they're concerned about the fact that begs need to get their balance sheet back and basically what it boils down to is that they have interest rates low so these institutions can rebuild their balance sheets so they can borrow cheaply and therefore benefit from a yield curve which is. so that they can. borrow short at low rates and that will make their balance sheet much better agreed and finally we hear from six six six six sigma who says very sexist rant at the opening based on zero facts gender is not the measure of performance is results the n.b.a. n.h.l. m l b n n f l pay women zero point one hundred percent less than their male counterparts it has nothing to do with their gender is everything to do with their inability to perform now six six six sigma i agree with you that promotions and compensation should be based on performance and not gender but today they just they simply aren't and in my humble opinion that needs to change now absolutely right
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now she didn't see that because i thought you were good. but i think it's completely what he said with regard to that they don't perform. there you have it but thank you for your comment that's all for now we love hearing from you please check out our facebook page and please tweet out us at aaron aid at edward n.h. from all of us here have a fantastic holiday weekend we'll see you next time i. was about seven years old it's one of the largest cities on the east coast of america. got about one hundred people here just because about the cost of housing in this area especially is very high and i believe there's a. america we have
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a right. to possess public land until something is created that's my house you see back there live it send them to well good we spent tens of thousands of dollars. if we hadn't done that we wouldn't have been home and i want you to understand we don't just help you know people intensity we don't know anybody that needs help so tell your friend to just take care of them or a mistake i'm never going to get the internet in one thousand got a place to live once on monday i'll be out here with my dog. right on the street. first street. and i would think that you're. on a reporter's twitter. and instagram. could
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be in the know. they all told you my language and all but i will only react to situations i haven't read the reports so i'm likely to push the no i will leave them to the state department to comment on your latter point so it's ok because i'm not talking. no more weasel words. when you have a direct question be prepared for a change when you throw a punch be ready for our. freedom of speech and little down to freedom to question. the media lead us so we. are the same motions she truly play your part of the physical. issues that no one is
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that stupid with to get that you deserve answers from. politics. ukraine's president says he's ready to re-establish a truce in the country's ace but beyond me steps up the defensive on defined cities with more residential areas coming under fire. in saudi arabia sends thirty thousand troops to the border with iraq after a wave of radical islamist insurgents reportedly force iraqi border guards to flame . and a standoff between asylum seekers barricaded in the band in school and authorities . triggering protests in support of the refugees.

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